Who's the NFL's best safety? Wide receiver? Cornerback? What about the second-best defensive tackle -- after Aaron Donald? To preview the 2021 NFL season, we set out to answer those questions and much more.
We surveyed more than 50 league executives, coaches, scouts and players to help us stack the top 10 players at 11 different positions, from edge rusher to interior offensive linemen and all the way through tight ends. This is the second edition of these rankings, and there are several players who moved up and dropped from last year's lists.
Here's how our process worked: Voters gave us their best 10 to 15 players at a position, then we compiled the results and ranked candidates based on number of top-10 votes, composite average, interviews, research and film-study help from ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen. We had several ties, so we broke them by isolating the two-man matchup with additional voting and follow-up calls. Each section is packed with quotes and nuggets from the voters on every guy -- even the honorable mentions.
The objective is to identify the best players right now for 2021. This is not a five-year projection or an achievement award. Who's the best today? Pretty simple.
We'll roll out a position per day over the next 11 days. Here's the schedule:
Week 1: edge rushers (July 5), interior defensive line (July 6), off-ball linebackers (July 7), cornerbacks (July 8), safeties (July 9), offensive tackles (July 10), interior offensive line (July 11)
Week 2: quarterbacks (July 12), running backs (July 13), wide receivers (July 14), tight ends (July 15)
Like tight end on offense, safety is a position that teams aren't overly eager to pay. The highest-paid safety, Justin Simmons, ranks 75th leaguewide in per-year average payout ($15.25 million).
Splash plays help. Whether Jamal Adams slips past a tackle for the sack, or Simmons and Minkah Fitzpatrick undercut routes for interceptions, head coaches and general managers want momentum-changing plays from their back-end stars.
These top 10 safeties deliver in that area, and many more.
1. Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Steelers
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 7
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: 3
Acquiring Fitzpatrick in a 2019 deal with Miami was a defining move of the Mike Tomlin-Kevin Colbert era in Pittsburgh. Fitzpatrick has embodied the ball-hawking safety in the AFC North, with nine interceptions and 20 pass deflections in 30 games with the storied franchise.
"Most complete safety in the game," a high-ranking NFL official said. "Elite instincts, athleticism, processor, field vision, positional flexibility, production in deep part of the field, [and] can cover man-to-man. Can do it all."
Fitzpatrick posted a league-best 45.5% completion percentage allowed when the nearest defender last season, along with a 60.2 passer rating. His 33.3% ball hawk rate -- an NFL Next Gen Stats measurement for percentage of targets in which the nearest defender made a play on the football -- ranked third leaguewide.
Fitzpatrick turns into a running back with the ball too, producing 207 return yards off his nine picks in Pittsburgh.
"It's his instincts, and he's finally comfortable -- they are playing him in the right spot," an NFC coach said. "He studies, he knows first and second reads, and his return ability is elite."
2. Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 5
Age: 27 | Last year's ranking: 7
Some who voted Simmons over Fitzpatrick -- and there were more than a few -- argue he covers more of the field. They make the case that Pittsburgh's fire-zone scheme helps Fitzpatrick make plays downhill, while Simmons must play a post route as smoothly as a slant. The Steelers would argue Fitzpatrick does all that too, but the word "complete" gets thrown around with Simmons a lot.
"He's a traditional free [safety] who will cover ground and also come down and hit you," said an NFC exec. "He might lack the elite athleticism of [Budda Baker or Jamal Adams], but he can play physically, too."
Simmons can cover tight ends in the slot on one down and tackle in the box the next. He finished the year with 96 total tackles along with nine pass deflections on 51 plays as the nearest defender. And his knack for making plays on the ball keeps getting better, with interception totals increasing by one each year, from two in 2017 to five in 2020.
"Smooth range, outstanding open-field tackler, elite ball skills," an AFC coach said of Simmons' game.
3. Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 5
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 9
Baker made the biggest jump of any safety from last year's list, vaulting from No. 9 to No. 3.
"Everyone loves this guy. You won't find anyone in the league who doesn't admire his game," an AFC defensive coach said.
Evaluators routinely call Baker a "rocket" or a "bullet" for his ability to thump ball carriers. His 441 total tackles over four years are a byproduct of instincts and effective blitzing.
The knock was on-ball production, but Baker got his first two career interceptions in 2020 along with a 14.6% ball hawk rate. He's not a deep-field safety of Simmons' caliber, but he has shown the ability to cover.
"He's unbelievable," an NFC offensive coach said. "He's a lot like Adams, but I think he's slightly better in coverage, which gives him the edge."
4. Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks
Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 11
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: 1
Adams is the toughest evaluation on the list. The clear-cut No. 1 from last year fell in the rankings after his first season in Seattle showcased breathtaking playmaking but some struggles in coverage.
The good is undeniable.
"Truly one of a kind," an AFC exec said. "Enforcer, blitzer, energizer. You have to track him every snap."
Adams' disruption off the edge helped define Seattle's defense, with his 9.5 sacks leading all safeties by a massive margin. No other safety had more than 3.5.
But Adams' Pro Football Focus pass-coverage grade fell to 44.5 late last season after posting in the high-80s the previous season with the Jets. Adams' success rate -- percentage of successful plays for the defense when serving as the nearest defender -- was 48% last season, around the league average.
To be sure, Adams got traded in late July and had limited time to absorb Seattle's system. He also missed four games due to injury, and Seattle's pass defense was worse without him (7.0 yards allowed per dropback with Adams sidelined vs. 6.1 with Adams on the field). The Seahawks believe familiarity will produce better pass coverage from Adams in 2021.
Still, many evaluators call him, essentially, a weakside linebacker.
"But he does so many things at an elite level that all of that doesn't concern me much," an NFC exec said. "I don't think he's a terrible cover guy. That's just not his strength. Not a weakness but not what he does best. What he does best is wreck a game plan."
5. Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings
Highest ranking: 3 | Lowest ranking: 7
Age: 32 | Last year's ranking: 2
Age is the only thing slowing Smith down. One high-ranking AFC evaluator called Smith "the gold standard for the last half-decade" at safety. Reputation and consistency earn Smith high votes, but most agree that his best years might be behind him.
Still, his production at age 31 last year was impressive, with five interceptions and 10 pass deflections. He relies on being an "incredibly smart" player at this stage of his career, as an NFC offensive coach said. Smith is a true center fielder in the Vikings' defense while leading the communication for the secondary.
"Unbelievable at disguise," the coach said. "He knows where he has to get to on the field -- as good as there is at that. The question now is can he still get there?"
6. Tyrann Mathieu, Kansas City Chiefs
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 9
Age: 29 | Last year's ranking: 6
Many good veterans don't see a third contract in the NFL. Mathieu is going on his fifth if the Chiefs extend him this summer, which they want to do. The 29-year-old has staying power thanks to his versatility.
"Still impacting the game in a way few guys can," an NFL head coach said. "Elite instincts and competitor."
In 2020, Mathieu turned 63 targets into six interceptions, nine pass deflections and a 62.7 passer rating allowed. He's the rare safety who can make three plays on one down, sniffing out a screen pass, pressuring the quarterback and tackling the receiver on the other side within seconds.
"He can do everything, and he really does make that defense go," an NFC offensive coach said. "He lost his mind in the Super Bowl. Is he as good a cover guy as he's been? Probably not. But he's such a good blitzer, instinctive, disguiser, takes the right chances -- he can still be very effective."
7. Kevin Byard, Tennessee Titans
Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: 12
Age: 27 | Last year's ranking: 5
Byard garners respect in league circles despite a down 2020 for his standards. One NFC exec was impressed Byard managed seven pass deflections last year considering the Titans' pass-rush woes. Tennessee had one of the worst edge rushes in the NFL thanks to a combined zero sacks from Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley.
"He's shown over time that the on-ball production will be there," the exec said. "Sometimes when your pass rush isn't good, you tend to overcompensate or have to adjust, and the same plays aren't available."
Byard's 18 interceptions through five seasons is more than Smith (16) and Mathieu (15) during the same span.
8. John Johnson III, Cleveland Browns
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 14
Age: 25 | Last year's ranking: Unranked
Marcus Maye and Marcus Williams received franchise tags in March, but the safety who actually hit free agency emerged as the best of the class. Johnson made more top-10 ballots than all but six safeties, thanks to his play with the Rams that earned an 85.6 Pro Football Focus rating last season.
"Intangibles are second to none," an AFC coach said. "He can run the show for a defense, great tackler. He brings a calmness to a defense and is a fearless competitor."
The Browns signed Johnson to a three-year, $33.75 million deal with $24 million guaranteed after he recorded 105 tackles and eight pass deflections with Los Angeles.
9. Derwin James Jr., Los Angeles Chargers
Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: 4
James' sheer talent lands him on the list, but after missing 27 games the past two seasons, voters were hesitant to include him.
"He'd be a lot higher if healthy, obviously," an NFC defensive coach said. "The year that guy had [in 2018], holy s---. Off the chain. You'd say he's better than just about anybody."
Many teams are still enamored by the prospects of a 6-foot-2, 215-pound player who can cover tight ends in the slot and hit with force. James was an All-Pro in his only full season, with 3.5 sacks, 13 passes defended and three interceptions.
10. Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals
Highest ranking: 6 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 24 | Last year's ranking: Unranked
Bates isn't a marquee name but probably should be.
"If he was on a different team, people would love this guy," a high-ranking NFL official said.
Added an AFC coordinator: "He's a really good player, he just plays in Cincinnati so he doesn't get the recognition."
Bates' 47.7% completion percentage as the nearest defender ranks third among safeties, and he basically got a pass deflection every third time he was targeted (15 breakups on 44 tries).
"Smooth, really compete player. Can play the ball deep and good open-field tackler," an AFC coach said.
Not all evaluators were high on Bates, but he got enough votes in the Nos. 6-8 range to outdistance the honorable mentions.
Safeties also receiving votes
Eddie Jackson, Chicago Bears: "He has a very good trait with his ability to take the ball away ... Good, not great athlete, lacks special top-end speed, and he's been inconsistent as a tackler. Not the most physical." -- NFC executive
Darnell Savage, Green Bay Packers: "Plays nickel, covers, rangy -- he's [unbelievable]." -- NFC executive
Marcus Maye, New York Jets: "Really stood out last year ... Not a special athlete but so well-rounded, can play down or from depth. Solid tackler." -- NFC scout; "Bad team and scheme probably held him back [last year]." -- NFC defensive coach
Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints: "Super talented, range, instincts, shows flashes but inconsistent, has all the tools." -- NFC defensive coach
Antoine Winfield Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers: "He's got an edge to him, good instincts. He can play down or in the open field. Really instinctive player and plays so freakin' hard." -- NFC offensive coach
Landon Collins, Washington Football Team: "Still can be productive, and he will be good for [Washington's] defense. Not sure he's as good as Budda Baker and Jamal Adams in that realm of elite line-of-scrimmage players." -- AFC defensive coach