We don't know exactly how the new 17-game NFL season will impact players, but it's easy to make a few assumptions. I laid a few of those out when I wrote in April about the league's new schedule. We'll expect to see more parity and more injuries, both products of adding a 17th game against similarly successful competition. Those seem pretty straightforward.
I want to focus on the third element I mentioned back in April: setting records. Seventeen is more than 16, and that extra game is going to make it easier for players to get the numbers they need to breaking records. Virtually every one of the significant single-season records from the 14-game era has been erased from the record books by a more impressive performance from the 16-game campaign -- with two exceptions, one of which we'll discuss in this piece.
Let's look at eight records across the NFL and reevaluate them in light of the move to 17 games. For some, it wouldn't be a surprise if a new mark was set in 2021. With at least one of the awards, we might not see a new record-holder until the league expands the season to 27 games. I'll also nominate three players who have a shot at setting each record, including two favorites and a long shot.
We'll start with one of the most vulnerable awards, because I'm not sure it will still be on the books this time next year:
Jump to a season-long record:
Passing yards | Rushing yards
Receiving yards | Extra points
Total TDs | Non-offensive TDs
Fumbles | Interceptions
Passing yards
Current record: 5,477 (Peyton Manning, 2013)
While Manning holds this record by 1 lone yard over Drew Brees' 2011 campaign, no other season from any other quarterback is within 200 yards of the top two.
We've seen three quarterbacks with three different styles top 5,000 yards over the last three seasons in Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston, and there are several quarterbacks who could threaten Manning's record with an extra game this season.
The favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
It has to start with Mahomes, right? When the league announced the move to a 17-game campaign, I built a Monte Carlo simulation and found that his chances of topping 5,477 yards in a given year jumped from 2.3% in a 16-game campaign to 10.4% under the 17-game slate. He made it to 5,097 yards in his first full season as a starter and then added 278 in the subsequent victory over the Colts, which would have brought him to 5,375 yards over 17 games in 2018. Is it difficult to imagine Mahomes coaxing another 103 passing yards out of a full campaign, especially with an improved offensive line?
Just behind: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott started and finished four games last season before breaking his ankle in the fifth. In those four games, he racked up 1,690 passing yards. No quarterback in league history had even topped 1,600 yards over the first four weeks of the season before last year. If Prescott had kept that up for an entire 16-game season, he would have finished with 6,790 yards, blowing away the passing record with weeks to spare without even considering the possibility of adding a 17th game.
Of course, drawing conclusions from that four-game sample isn't so easy. His performance likely would have regressed toward the rest of the league over a larger run. The Cowboys played from behind for most of that first month, leaving Prescott in situations in which he had no choice but to throw over and over again, and they shouldn't be as awful on defense in 2021 as they were last season. At the same time, though, he did that behind an injury-hit offensive line, and he gets both that line and his three star receivers back for 2021. One way for team owner Jerry Jones to justify that massive contract? Get Prescott to set a passing record.
Long shot: Tom Brady, Buccaneers
If you remember, Manning's record-breaking campaign came in his second season with the Broncos. In Year 1, he threw for 4,659 yards. In his first year with the Bucs, Brady threw for ... 4,683 yards. It's obviously not that easy to project Brady for a similar leap, but this will be after he gets a full offseason to work under Bruce Arians and with a full year of Antonio Brown playing alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I don't think a 44-year-old Brady is setting the passing record, but who knows?
Touchdowns
Current record: 31 (LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006)
The turn of the century saw four backs break this record in rapid succession; Marshall Faulk (Rams) got to 26 in 2000, Priest Holmes (Chiefs) upped it to 27 in 2003, Shaun Alexander (Seahawks) made it to 28 two years later, and Tomlinson (Chargers) got it all the way to 31 the following season. It seemed like we were going to see feature backs continue to post wild fantasy seasons, but since then, no back has topped 21 total touchdowns. Randy Moss actually had 22 receiving touchdowns the following year to tie Jerry Rice's record, but it seems more likely that a back would be able to make it to 32.
To get to 32 touchdowns, the player is going to need lots of opportunities. Tomlinson carried the ball 348 times and added 80 targets. Twenty-eight of his 31 touchdowns were rushes. Fifteen of them came from inside the 5-yard line, where he was handed the ball 23 times. We would need a back who is something close to a sure thing to get the vast majority of his team's touches inside the 5 while also mixing in targets as a receiver. Is there a player who stands out?
The favorite: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Despite missing virtually all of the 2020 season with a high ankle sprain, McCaffrey is still the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts. CMC's 2019 season is the sort of profile you would hope for if you were trying to build a 32-touchdown campaign; he touched the ball 403 times, including 116 receptions and 21 touches inside the 5-yard line. He scored 19 touchdowns, which should remind you just how hard it is to get to 31, let alone 32.
Just behind: Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Despite missing four games and pieces of several more over the past few years, Cook has been force-fed valuable touches near the goal line. No player has more touches inside the 5 over the past two seasons than Cook's 47, and the only player within 12 touches of him over that time frame is Ezekiel Elliott. Unsurprisingly, Cook also leads all players with 19 touchdowns inside the 5 since then. He would need to play all 17 games to have a shot, but his ceiling is astronomically high, given his role when healthy.
Long shot: I realize that Mixon isn't exactly on the national radar after missing most of 2020 with a foot injury, but he was on pace for 373 touches before going down. He has never posted great touchdown totals, but he touched the ball 21 times inside the 5-yard line in 2019, which tied him for the league lead alongside Cook and McCaffrey. With Gio Bernard leaving, it also seems like Mixon is ticketed for a three-down role in what should be an improved offense.
Rushing yards
Current record: 2,105 (Eric Dickerson, 1984)
As you already know, the game has changed to the point where it's difficult for a running back to get the sort of volume needed to challenge Dickerson. The Rams and Colts star had at least 350 carries four times across his first six seasons as a pro. Just three backs have even had one 350-carry season over the past decade, and the first two -- Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray -- both suffered injuries the following season.
The third is Derrick Henry, and I wouldn't blame you for feeling like the bruising Titans back is an exception to all kinds of rules. He carried the ball 386 times between the regular season and the postseason in 2019. He toted the rock 378 times in the regular season a year ago, delivering his first 2,000-yard campaign in the process, before adding 18 more carries in the playoff loss to the Ravens.
If I came back from the future and told you that a back topped Dickerson in 2021 without saying who it was, who would your first guess be? Of course it would be Henry.
The favorite: Derrick Henry, Titans
Can Henry elevate his game even further and get to 2,106? It'll be tough. We don't have evidence suggesting backs can sustain that sort of workload in the modern NFL beyond Henry himself. The Titans might have hedged their bets a bit by trading for Julio Jones, a move which would seemingly push Tennessee toward more of a pass-happy attack. Corey Davis attracted 95 targets in 14 games last season, but a healthy Jones would expect to see the ball more frequently.
It's more likely that Henry finishes below 300 carries in 2021 than it is that he sees something north of 350 again, but even with that feeling, he's still way ahead of the pack here.
Just behind: Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer might like nothing more than to give his starting running back 400 carries in a 17-game season. It's tough to count on Cook staying healthy for the entire season given his track record with injuries, but if you take the 17 games he has played in which he has had more than 20 carries, he finishes with 422 rushes for 2,120 yards. It's going to take that sort of workload to get anybody ahead of Dickerson, so while those games weren't consecutive, it's not impossible to imagine.
Long shot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
Do you remember the games the Chiefs played against the Bills and Texans during the 2020 regular season? We saw Mahomes & Co. go up against two defenses that were perfectly happy to let Mahomes hand the ball off to his running back of choice. Edwards-Helaire carried the ball 51 times for 299 yards in those two games.
The Chiefs dramatically rebuilt their offensive line this offseason, and if teams get terrified of Mahomes, they might prefer to take their chances with the run. There's no real threat to Edwards-Helaire's playing time on the roster, so while I don't think coach Andy Reid wants to give a running back 400 carries, Edwards-Helaire has more of a shot at a spectacular season than you might think.
Receiving yards
Current record: 1,964 (Calvin Johnson, 2012)
In the end, no receiver was ever able to top the 2,000-yard barrier over a 16-game span. Johnson came closest, as he rode a whopping 204 targets to get within 37 yards of 2K. The retired Lions star was the only receiver to top 1,900 yards, with Julio Jones, Jerry Rice and Antonio Brown each topping 1,800. Passing statistics have flown up over the last several decades, but Johnson still has a comfortable gap between him and the rest of the pack.
Of course, add a 17th game and that changes things. In the first game after his 1,964-yard season, Johnson racked up 37 yards against the Packers, which would have given him an even 2,000. Switch it up and choose the last game before his 2012 season and you add a 244-yard performance against the Packers in the Matt Flynn game from Week 17 of the 2011 season. Johnson would have produced a staggering 2,208 yards over a 17-game run. Someone is going to get to 2,000 yards, but it might not be in 2021.
The favorite: Stefon Diggs, Bills
Forming an instant connection with breakout quarterback Josh Allen, Diggs led the league in targets (166), receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) a year ago. The Bills have shown a propensity to be pass-happy when necessary, and with a 2.4-win gap between their expected record and actual record a year ago, Allen & Co. might have a reason to throw even more frequently if the Bills are in more competitive games this year.
Diggs had a 30.2% target share without John Brown on the field last season, and Brown is now on the Raiders. There's the chance for an even bigger season here in 2021.
Just behind: Michael Thomas, Saints
With a healthy Drew Brees in the fold, Thomas would be the clear favorite here, given that he caught an NFL-record 149 passes from Brees on 185 targets in 2019. Last season saw Thomas sidelined by a high ankle sprain before Brees retired, leaving the quarterback situation uncertain in New Orleans.
Thomas should still garner the lion's share of the targets with Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook both leaving town, but those targets might not be as catchable with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill throwing them. If Thomas is back to his 2019 self and Winston starts all 17 games, watch out.
Long shot: Calvin Ridley, Falcons
Thomas's NFC South rival might also be primed for a massive season after the Falcons dealt away Jones. Ridley was targeted on 19.9% of his routes when Jones was on the field a year ago, but without the future Hall of Famer between the lines, his target rate leaped to 30.8%. Kyle Pitts will shoulder some of the workload left by Jones' departure, but rookie tight ends almost always disappoint.
Ridley might have the clearest path to 200 targets of anybody in the league besides Thomas, although he did have foot surgery this spring.
Non-offensive touchdowns
Current record: Six (Devin Hester, 2006 & 2007)
Hester belongs in the Hall of Fame. The only other player in league history to produce more than four non-offensive touchdowns in a single season is Ken Houston, who had five in 1971. Hester had to get creative to hit his mark; across that remarkable two-year start to his career, the Bears standout scored on seven punt returns, four kickoff returns and a missed field goal. (He added two more touchdowns as a receiver and took the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI to the house.)
Hester was an incredible returner, and the Bears gave him plenty of chances. The part-time cornerback and wide receiver returned 47 punts and 20 kicks in 2006, then added 42 punts and 43 kickoffs to the ledger in 2007.
Owing in part to changes in the league's kickoff rules, just two players returned 20-plus kickoffs and punts during the 2020 campaign: Buffalo's Andre Roberts and Pittsburgh's Ray-Ray McCloud. The vast majority of teams also use receivers as their primary return men, limiting their chances of having a player add to this total with a defensive score or two.
The favorite: Jamal Agnew, Jaguars
The Jags gave Agnew a three-year, $14.2 million deal to leave the Lions in free agency, suggesting that new coach Urban Meyer will have no qualms about installing the 26-year-old as his team's return man on both punts and kicks. Agnew has five career touchdowns on returns and is one of just 11 active players with a punt return and a kick return for a score.
Just behind: Andre Roberts, Texans
The veteran returner might not have the breakaway speed of some younger players, but Roberts is expected to get all of the return duties for a team that should be fielding plenty of kickoffs in 2021. The Texans are a mess in many ways, but they did invest in adding players with special teams competency this offseason, so they could be better there than some expect.
Long shot: Jabrill Peppers, Giants
It seems unlikely to choose a player with zero career touchdowns for this record, but Peppers is one of the few defenders in the league who projects to be his team's primary return man. One of the players acquired for Odell Beckham Jr., Peppers returned 15 of 20 punts for the Giants a year ago. He also served as a kick returner for the Browns before the OBJ trade. Peppers scored five times in college at Michigan, but those scores all came on running plays. He would need some combination of returns and defensive scores to hit seven.
Extra points
Current record: 75 (Matt Prater, 2013)
To kick a lot of extra points, of course, your team has to score a lot of touchdowns. The 2013 Broncos scored 76 of them, the most of any team in league history, in part because they were so dominant in the red zone; they scored touchdowns on a league-high 76.3% of their trips inside the 20-yard line. They went for 2 just once that season, giving Prater 75 attempts from the 2-yard line in the thin air of Denver. The veteran went 75-for-75.
The 17th game will give teams an extra opportunity at racking up touchdowns, but something has changed since Prater's 75-conversion campaign. The league has moved extra points back to the 15-yard line, and the success rate on extra points has gone down, though they're still kicker-friendly opportunities. Kickers have gone from hitting 99.6% of their extra point tries in 2013 to 93% a year ago.
Six or seven percentage points might not seem like much, but with a 99.6% conversion rate, the chances of a kicker going 75-for-75 are 74%. With a 93% rate, the chances of a kicker going 75-for-75 fall to 0.4%, meaning we'll probably need to see a kicker get 77 or 78 opportunities to hit 75 kicks.
The favorite: Harrison Butker, Chiefs
The Chiefs have had wild swings in the red zone during the Patrick Mahomes era. Their 2018 team converted 71.8% of their regular season red zone opportunities into touchdowns, the second-best rate in football, but the same core fell to 20th in red zone efficiency in 2019 and 14th in 2020. They've hit on just over 69% of their red zone tries in the postseason over that span, including incredible runs in both 2019 and 2020 before the loss to the Bucs.
Given the improvements made to their offensive line and their dominance across the other 80 yards, the Chiefs have the best shot at scoring 75-plus touchdowns this season.
Just behind: Justin Tucker, Ravens
Tucker would be the popular choice as the league's best kicker, and even after breaking his extra point streak in 2018, the four-time All-Pro has hit conversions at a better rate than Butker. The problem is that the Ravens are one of the more analytically inclined organizations in the league, and with Lamar Jackson at the helm, they go for 2 more frequently than Kansas City.
Long shot: The Utah product went 16-for-16 on extra points after joining the Rams, who are enthused about their offense hitting new heights after adding Matthew Stafford to take over at quarterback. Gay will also have the benefit of playing his home games in the comfortable conditions of Los Angeles, while four of his nine road games will take place in domes.
Fumbles
Current record: 23 (Kerry Collins, 2001, and Daunte Culpepper, 2002)
This record is typically the domain of quarterbacks, and while it has been on the books for nearly 20 years, we're seeing some competitors for the title pop up over the past couple of seasons. One of the record holders was a Giants quarterback, so it might be appropriate that one of his successors may be the favorite to take over.
The favorite: Daniel Jones, Giants
To put it politely, Jones has been a fumble factory for the Giants over his first two NFL seasons. The former Duke quarterback led the league in fumbles in both 2019 (18) and 2020 (11) despite playing only 12 full games in 2019 and 13 last season. He has 29 fumbles in 25 career games; over a full 17-game season, that would prorate to 19.7, pushing Jones toward the record. And while Giants fans might be inclined to write off 2019 as an aberration of a rookie season, consider what happened with our runner-up ...
Just behind: Carson Wentz, Colts
Wentz led the league with 14 fumbles as a rookie, and while he seemed to at least slow the problem with nine-fumble campaigns in both 2017 and 2018, the former Eagles starter shot back up to 16 fumbles in 2019 and 10 across what amounted to 11.5 games in 2020.
There's never any guarantee Wentz will make it through a full season -- and an improved offensive line in Indianapolis will help -- but the former MVP candidate has consistently put the ball in danger throughout his career.
Long shot: Justin Fields, Bears
The former Ohio State star didn't do a terrible job of protecting the football in college, fumbling 12 times over two-plus seasons as a starter, but circumstances might make him the favorite of the five first-round quarterbacks to lead the pack in fumbles. Fields is likely to have more rush attempts than any of the other rookies, and young passers often struggle to protect the football at the end of those plays. He's also playing behind the worst offensive line of the bunch on paper.
Interceptions
Current record: 14 (Dick Lane, 1952)
"Night Train" Lane's interception record is approaching its 70th anniversary, and unless there's a drastic change in how the game is played, he should be able to hold onto this one for another 70. In 2020, the NFL as a whole posted a 2.2% interception rate, the lowest in league history. When Lane set his mark, the leaguewide rate for picks was 7.4%. Teams throw more frequently now than they did back then, but completion rates have risen dramatically.
All of this makes Xavien Howard's 10-interception effort in 2020 even more impressive. To put his season in context, his 10 picks represented 2.5% of all the interceptions generated in the NFL last season. Nobody has grabbed a larger proportion of the league's picks over the past 60 years. It would be a surprise if anyone managed to top Howard's 10 picks this season, let alone make it all the way to 15.
The favorite: Xavien Howard, Dolphins
The Miami star has led the league in interceptions twice over the past three years, tying for the lead with seven in 2018 before hitting 10 a year ago. The Dolphins are also deep at cornerback, so teams can't simply avoid throwing at Howard, who was targeted 101 times a year ago. The only problem for the Baylor product has been health, as he has missed 24 games over his first five seasons.
Just behind: Marcus Peters, Ravens
Interception rates aren't sticky from year-to-year, but we already have some evidence that Peters is more likely to produce picks than the average corner. The former first-rounder led the NFL with eight interceptions as a rookie and has 31 total over his first six seasons. The Ravens also project to be one of the league's best teams, which usually yields more opportunities from teams trying to catch up in the second half. Baltimore faced the sixth-most pass attempts of any team last season.
Long shot: Antoine Winfield Jr., Buccaneers
It's usually tougher for safeties to rack up significant interception totals than cornerbacks, but Winfield's role with the Bucs on passing downs lands somewhere between the two. Tampa has faced more pass attempts than anyone else over the last two years, owing to a crazy pace in Jameis Winston's games in 2019 and its success behind Tom Brady in 2020. The team is expected to be a contender again in 2021, and while Winfield had only one pick as a rookie, the budding star generated seven picks in his final college season at Minnesota in 2019.