Three top-10 receivers traded in the past 15 months. Five starting quarterbacks dealt in the past four months. Thirty-three first- or second-round picks exchanged in 2021.
The NFL's trade market is booming like real estate. Julio Jones is the latest legacy name to switch jerseys after the Titans sent second- and fourth-round picks to the Falcons in exchange for Jones and a sixth-round pick, a move that cleared $15 million in 2021 salary from the Falcons' books. Jones plans to thrive with Tennessee, just like Buffalo's Stefon Diggs and Arizona's DeAndre Hopkins, who combined for 242 catches and 2,942 yards with their new team last season.
Four former top-three overall picks -- Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold -- either asked or got asked to leave since the regular season ended. And we're not counting the top-tier passers (Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson) who have been disgruntled or want out.
The NFL is on pace for more than 100 trades for the second time in three years, a threshold not hit from 2010 to '18. It feels like anything is possible, that anyone's favorite player could be dealt for the right price.
A hot trade market is not exactly new. The pre-CBA-agreement 2010 season brought 93 trades, as did 2017. But the stakes aren't always this high, with teams relinquishing serious draft capital while fitting big-money talent under the salary cap. Thirty-three of the 52 trades executed in 2021 involved first- or second-round picks, or 63.5% -- the highest clip since 2016 and the second-highest of the last decade, per ESPN Stats & Information. And there will be more.
Let's examine five of the reasons trades happen so often now, and forecast what's next -- or who's next -- on the trade market.
Jump ahead: Future trade targets
Cap space makes it easier
The salary-cap growth from much of the past decade makes it easier to take on larger contracts. While the cap grew 60.4% from 2013 to '20 (from $123 million to $198.2 million), not all player salaries grew proportionately.
Quarterbacks had no problems, of course, with $40 million per year the new threshold for top passers. But franchise tag numbers from that same span show less than a 60% spike at cornerback, defensive end, running back and offensive line. Running back is the only significant drop off, at 25%, while offensive line and corner hover around 50%, and defensive end is closer to 60%.
Even the slightest disparity among high earners can help teams absorb one more big salary, especially because most of the league still makes less than $5 million annually. Teams like the Jets were carrying around $70 million in space not too long ago.
The uncertainties from the COVID-19 pandemic affected plans. The 8% cap decrease in 2020 forced teams to cut good veterans, and trades were down 43% year-over-year.
But future cap projections have business humming by 2023, when additional revenue from gambling and 17-game seasons take shape. Teams can aggressively pursue trades in 2021 knowing future years will cover them on the books. Carrying, say, 10 bloated salaries on the books is tough. But six or seven is doable.
Not all teams are completely sold on building through the draft
It's all about preference: the proven player vs. the draft pick.
The Rams often choose the former, giving out first-round picks like Times Square comedy club fliers. By 2023, they will have gone seven years without a first-round pick as it stands. But those moves resulted in five years of Jared Goff, two years of Brandin Cooks, Taylor Rapp, two backups in a 2019 trade-back, the game's best corner (Jalen Ramsey) and a top-10 quarterback (Stafford).
This strategy requires enough teams, such the Jacksonville Jaguars (who dealt five starters last year as part of a teardown), Detroit Lions (who wanted to do right by a star QB who requests a trade) or Falcons (a cap-strapped team that essentially had to deal Jones in order to pay draft picks), to execute. Those partners will always be there because NFL teams can lose and rebuild rather quickly.
The argument for the proven player is simple: Most drafts have only 15 to 20 players with first-round grades, and the threat of a potential bust looms large. Thirty-eight of the 96 first-round picks from 2016 to '18 (39.6%) did not have their fifth-year options picked up after three seasons.
While the draft is still the gold standard for team building, acquiring a star undercuts that uncertainty while allowing good teams to draft well in rounds outside of the first.
At least nine second-round picks from 2018 are in line for a big contract extension in the coming months, for example. You can still capitalize on cheap labor with good volume in rounds 2-4, where talent abounds. As the Rams and others see it, if you can hit on Day 2, that's more roster security to swing big on trades -- especially if you're good enough to select in the 20s of the first round every year.
Player empowerment
Many agents and execs agree: Players unhappy with their situations are increasingly speaking up, and teams that figure they might lose the player in a year or two anyway usually just make the headache disappear via trade. They also point out leverage is almost always dictated by the caliber of the player. That helps explain why everyone from Ramsey to Jones to Antonio Brown has forced a trade in recent years. And it isn't always about money.
"It used to be, 'My contract is not getting done, so I want out,'" an NFL exec said. "Now it can be playing time or a coach not treating them right or wanting to be in a different city or culture."
An NFC exec wonders if the NBA star players' penchant for switching teams might have influenced the trade process in other sports.
But NBA players have a pay-as-you-go structure of guaranteed money, which makes trades a bit more clear-cut. The dynamics of the NFL salary cap -- signing bonuses, dead money and non-guaranteed years -- create challenges.
Many around the league still believe the catalyst of Rodgers' issues in Green Bay stem from him being underpaid. His $57.5 million signing bonus from his four-year, $134 million extension sounded great three years ago, and roughly $82 million over the first two years is strong.
But that deal is now obsolete, with Rodgers making $7.3 million last year and a total of $21.5 million this year, assuming he plays (he has already forfeited a $500,000 workout bonus and will be out $93,085 in fines for missing training camp).
Forget Rodgers' otherworldly talent. Green Bay wrote a $57.5 million check for five to six years of work, not three. That alone is difficult to trade. The money is fixable. The relationship might not be. And as Rodgers saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers build a championship team around Tom Brady, he might want the same treatment elsewhere.
In Houston, Deshaun Watson got a $27 million check from the Texans roughly nine months ago and is due $10.5 million this year. This is supposed to be the year Houston got a franchise-QB bargain, not a bill of nearly $30 million for one season and four wins.
That's partly why the players on big-scale contracts can be tough to move, unless they successfully force the issue.
"Some players are willing to go to the nuclear option to get to different situations," veteran NFL agent Peter Schaffer said of the recent trade trends.
Fans are savvier about the business side
Schaffer represented former Browns great Joe Thomas, who endured a decade of losing in Cleveland. And eventually the Browns nearly traded the future Hall of Fame left tackle to Denver in 2015. But Thomas wasn't willing to go nuclear and demand a trade, opting to finish his career as a franchise pillar.
But as one GM pointed out, what if Thomas entered the league in, say, 2016 instead of 2007? Would the forward-thinking Browns, if still engulfed in losing, have moved him by now? That depends on philosophy and regime, but fans have come to expect such deals, no matter the name.
The days of every star finishing their careers in one uniform might be fading. The Eagles and Rams just traded away two quarterbacks with nearly $60 million in combined dead money, simply because they didn't want Wentz and Goff on their books anymore and could justify the sunk cost.
That seemed unthinkable five years ago.
"Fans are sophisticated now -- they understand the salary cap and understand why moves are made," an NFL general manager said. "So maybe some aren't as attached to legacy players as they once were."
Teams tend to relent, sometimes to their benefit
The perfect example is offensive tackle Orlando Brown in Baltimore. The Ravens weren't exactly keen on trading away a former third-round pick who developed into a Pro Bowl player on a rookie contract. But Brown's trade request expedited what the Ravens were probably going to do anyway: let him walk.
The Ravens paid left tackle Ronnie Stanley and weren't going to pay a second tackle significant money, too. Brown knew this. Even still, getting Brown to the Chiefs was difficult because teams thought they had to extend Brown, a 2022 free agent, and give up a first-round pick.
But Kansas City learned in the process that Brown was cool playing without an extension, which facilitated the deal. Kansas City gave up their 2021 first-, third-, fourth-rounders along with a 2022 fifth-round selection for Brown, a second-round pick and a sixth-rounder next year.
"If a team can move on from a potential locker room issue and have future money to allocate in other areas, it makes sense for them to do it," said one prominent NFL agent who has been involved in multiple trades.
This plan doesn't always work. Tight end David Njoku tried to get himself out of Cleveland and is still there. But Njoku, though an impressive athlete, didn't have the same value as Brown, and Cleveland waited it out until Njoku was happy enough to play out his fifth-year option.
That scenario seems rare now.
Future trade targets
One NFC exec estimates he discusses about 16 to 20 trade targets either internally or with other teams during intensified periods: trade deadline, roster cuts, draft. Here are players worth discussing in the coming months:
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans: Watson faces a lawsuit from 22 women alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, which sparked separate NFL and Houston Police Department investigations. No team is going to trade for Watson while all of that is pending.
But multiple teams will continue to monitor the situation. The NFL could place Watson on the commissioner's exempt list while the lawsuits against him continue to play out. Then, there's a potential suspension.
That doesn't have to stop Houston from dealing him before the trade deadline at midseason, even if the return is less than it would have been three months ago.
The team seems ready to move on, having added several quarterbacks to the roster, while Watson is largely expected to skip minicamp next week.
Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins: Miami doesn't want to deal him, but it's the worst-kept secret in the league that Howard is not happy with his contract. He's due $12 million in non-guaranteed money in 2021 -- a low standard coming off a 10-interception season. His counterpart in Miami, Byron Jones, gets $14 million in guarantees this year.
That's a problem if Miami doesn't adjust Howard's deal this summer.
There was buzz leaguewide that Dallas might make a play for Howard, though that was mostly before the Cowboys went all defense in the draft and picked up three new corners.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: At least three tight end-needy teams have looked into Ertz, including the Chargers before they signed Jared Cook. The Colts were an option, but they gave left tackle Eric Fisher $8.38 million and want to re-sign Darius Leonard and Braden Smith, so they might be out at this point.
Perhaps the Bills or a few others get involved, but expect this done some time this summer. Ertz badly wants out, Dallas Goedert is the future, and the Eagles have made clear they don't want to move on without something in return.
Teams could wait for Philly to be forced to cut him if there's not enough trade value, but here's to betting Ertz can still draw a Day 3 pick from a new team.
Gardner Minshew II, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Minshew missed OTAs last week and wants a chance to compete for a starting job after throwing 37 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in two seasons.
San Francisco looked into this before trading up to take Trey Lance at No. 3 overall. And one source from another team said they believe Jacksonville would take a fifth- or sixth-round pick for him.
Nick Foles, QB, Chicago Bears: Paying a third-string quarterback $4 million in guarantees is tough for the cash-strapped Bears, and there's a clear connection to the New York Jets.
GM Joe Douglas was with Foles in Philly. The Jets have zero NFL experience in their quarterback room. It's uncertain whether Foles actually wants to go to New York, but don't be surprised if New York looks into this one.
Chandler Jones, DE, Arizona Cardinals: Jones was a top-three pass-rusher in the NFL before missing much of last season with a biceps injury that required surgery.
But Jones just watched Arizona pay DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt while he sits on the last year of his deal at a $15.5 million salary. He missed part of OTAs.
Maybe all is good, as this pose suggests. Jones is known as leader and good locker room guy. But the team needs to address his future eventually, and plenty of teams that believe they are one good pass-rusher away might pick up the phone and dial Arizona GM Steve Keim.
Akiem Hicks, DT, Chicago Bears: Chicago has allowed Hicks and agent Drew Rosenhaus to gauge trade interest, as the Chicago Tribune reported in March. There are no recent developments here. For now, he's still a Bear.
Some teams believe Hicks is a top-five interior disruptor, but his age (31) could prevent them from giving up draft capital and signing him to a new deal. Hicks, a 2022 free agent, is due a total of $10.5 million this year.
This one could heat up closer to training camp.
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Detroit Lions: Crosby started 11 games at right tackle last year, but drafting Penei Sewell seventh overall prompted Detroit to gauge his trade market.
The Lions could keep him as a valuable swing tackle. Crosby would like to start somewhere. He's due $2.183 million on the last year of his rookie deal.
Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets: The Jets entered the offseason with Crowder in the plans. But there's no ignoring the fact that the receiver room has gotten crowded with the additions of Corey Davis, Keelan Cole and rookie Elijah Moore, who has impressed in OTAs.
Crowder is still productive and only 27, but his $10.35 million due in 2021 is a factor as New York sorts out his future. The safe bet is keeping him. But money -- especially potential pay-cut requests -- can muddle the relationship.
Jordan Hicks, LB, Arizona Cardinals: Hicks' representation has clearance to seek a trade after the drafting of Zaven Collins, as the NFL Network recently noted. His money is totally reasonable, at a $2 million base salary and a $1 million roster bonus that Arizona likely already paid.
He has been productive in two seasons with the Cardinals, posting 268 tackles (22 for loss) with 10 pass deflections, four interceptions and two forced fumbles.
Couple all that with the $6 million a new team can save by cutting him in 2022, and Hicks is worth a late-rounder. Eagles reunion, anyone?