When NFL teams drafted five quarterbacks in the first round of the 2021 draft, the clock started ticking on when those prospects would become starters. Despite what teams say before, during and immediately after the draft, the vast majority of first-round quarterbacks become their team's full-time starter at some point during their rookie season.
Since the league went to its slotted draft system in 2011, 32 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Of those 32, 28 became their team's primary quarterback at some point during their rookie season by starting consecutive games. It usually didn't take long for those quarterbacks to get in the lineup, either; 12 of the 32 passers started in Week 1, while the average passer of the bunch came into the lineup before the end of Week 4.
For whatever lip service teams and players pay to the value of a redshirt season, the four players who didn't take over during their rookie campaigns can't tell us much about whether teams should give their young quarterbacks time to learn. The foursome includes two players who quickly flamed out of the league: Jake Locker and Paxton Lynch. It also includes the best quarterback in football in Patrick Mahomes, who started only a meaningless Week 17 game as a rookie in 2017. The other guy is Packers second-year passer Jordan Love, who is the only one of the 32 quarterbacks who didn't throw a single pass during his rookie campaign.
Let's run through the five quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round last month and try to use history and their respective schedules to figure out where and when they'll enter into the starting lineup. Along the way, I'll also discuss what their respective organizations have done in the past. Let's start in Jacksonville, where the first overall pick probably won't be waiting very long to get his start:
Jump to a QB:
Lawrence
Wilson | Lance
Fields | Jones
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
First start: Week 1 at Houston
When the Jags drafted Blake Bortles with the No. 3 overall pick in 2014, then-coach Gus Bradley suggested that they wanted to sit Bortles behind Chad Henne for the entirety of the former's rookie season. It took all of two and a half games for Bradley to change his mind, as Henne was benched in the second half of Week 3. We don't know if Bortles would have turned out differently with the added development time, but it was clear that the Jags were lying about their plans, either to the media or to themselves.
This time around, the decision will be a lot easier. The Jaguars have a pair of viable Week 1 starters already on the roster in Gardner Minshew and C.J. Beathard, but Lawrence probably has been ready to start at the NFL level since the end of his freshman season at Clemson. If anything, Jacksonville could move one of those veteran quarterbacks at the end of training camp to a team in need of a backup.
Lawrence should be on the field to make his regular-season debut in Week 1. Vegas is certainly projecting him to jump right in, as the Jaguars are actually 2.5-point favorites on the road against the Texans. It's the first time the Jags have been favored in Houston since 2013, when their quarterback was ... Henne. Injury is likely the only thing keeping Lawrence from making 17 starts this season.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
First start: Week 1 at Carolina
Wilson is likely to open the season as the starter for the Jets for entirely different reasons. While Lawrence has plausible competition in Jacksonville, the Jets have basically cleared out a path at quarterback for the No. 2 overall pick. The only other quarterbacks on the roster for Gang Green are practice-squad candidate Mike White and 2020 fourth-round pick James Morgan, who didn't take a single snap as a rookie. New York could still add a veteran like Beathard who knows the system as players get cut in camp, but it appears to be moving forward with Wilson as its guy from the jump.
The Jets had veteran Josh McCown on their roster in 2018, but they still gave Sam Darnold the Week 1 start for his pro debut. Darnold threw a pick-six on his first attempt before presiding over a blowout victory.
We don't know how Wilson will turn out, but he should have more help at receiver than Darnold. The Jets started Quincy Enunwa, Eric Tomlinson, Neal Sterling and back Bilal Powell along with future Panthers wideout Robby Anderson in Darnold's debut. Wilson will be able to call on Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole and a pair of second-rounders in Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore. And Wilson and the Jets' Week 1 opponent will be none other than Darnold, Anderson and the Panthers.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
First start: Week 3 vs. Green Bay
Here's where things get interesting. The 49ers traded away three first-round picks to move up and draft Lance with the No. 3 overall pick. They also simultaneously suggested that they wanted to keep Jimmy Garoppolo, and the most obvious landing spot for Garoppolo (New England) no longer has a long-term opening. Could the 49ers keep Garoppolo on the roster for the entirety of the 2020 season and actually give Lance a true redshirt year?
Having made it past the draft, the 49ers don't need to rush into any decision with Garoppolo. The veteran is owed just under $25 million for 2021, but all of his money is unguaranteed until Week 1. San Francisco is under the cap and can afford to pay Garoppolo that cash, but the real value in moving on from him would be in creating space that it can roll over into future years, when it will have to re-sign linebacker Fred Warner and edge rusher Nick Bosa while still surrounding Lance with talent.
In the dream scenario, the 49ers take their time, evaluate Garoppolo and Lance in camp and get a clear answer as to whether the rookie is ready to take over as the starter. If he's not, Jimmy G has been a competent starter during his time with the Niners, posting a 62.6 QBR across 883 pass attempts. It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where he plays the Alex Smith role to Lance's Patrick Mahomes and starts for almost all of the 2021 season.
If Lance is ready, the 49ers could have options. The Eagles famously held onto Sam Bradford in 2016 and then dealt him to the Vikings for a first-round pick just before the start of the season to open up a job for Carson Wentz. Everybody brings up that example as to why a team should hold onto a quarterback, but it's the best-case scenario, not the most likely scenario. Teams do lose their starting quarterbacks in training camp here and there, but we rarely see a team lose its guy and then trade a first-round pick for a veteran rental. (Minnesota's move for Bradford, notably, didn't salvage its season.)
Garoppolo also has a no-trade clause, which could complicate matters. The 49ers could threaten to cut him before the season, which would erase his cap hit, but then they also wouldn't get anything in return for him. The more likely concern is his habit of suffering injuries; the worst-case scenario for the 49ers might be that Garoppolo stays on the roster through the opener, guaranteeing his $25 million, and then suffers an injury shortly thereafter. He suffered serious injuries by the end of September in 2016 (separated shoulder), 2018 (torn ACL) and 2020 (high ankle sprain).
The most likely scenario for Lance might not be the Smith example from 2017. Instead, the story might be reminiscent of what happened with Smith and another quarterback for this same organization in 2012. When Smith went down with a concussion in the middle of a game with the Rams, second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over for the veteran. The 2011 second-rounder never gave the job back, as Kaepernick won the next two games and led the 49ers all the way to Super Bowl XLVII. It's entirely possible that Lance takes over for an injured Garoppolo at some point in 2021 and prevents Kyle Shanahan from giving the incumbent another opportunity.
When would that happen? It's impossible to predict injuries, but Garoppolo hasn't been able to make it out of September three times in four years as a Week 1 starter. The 49ers play the Eagles in Week 2, which will put Shanahan's team up against a defensive line that ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate a year ago. If Garoppolo can't make it through that game without an injury, Lance would be in line to take over and make his first start in Week 3. His debut there would come against the Packers in prime time, so no big deal.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
First start: Week 4 vs. Detroit
Like the Jets and Jags, the Bears have been down this path in recent years. There was a different coach in charge, but when general manager Ryan Pace drafted Mitchell Trubisky with the No. 2 overall pick in 2017, the North Carolina quarterback wasn't expected to start quickly. The Bears had just signed Mike Glennon to a three-year, $45 million deal and even added veteran Mark Sanchez to the fold, but Trubisky moved up quickly. He pushed ahead of Sanchez in September, and after four middling starts from Glennon, Chicago inserted Trubisky as its starter in Week 5. The offense wasn't exactly passing-intensive -- Trubisky threw 48 total passes over his first three starts -- but after 13 college starts, he seemed like the best option after a month.
The Bears find themselves in a similar situation in 2021. They already have two viable veterans on the roster. Andy Dalton was signed to a one-year, $10-million deal to start ahead of Nick Foles, whose $4 million base salary is fully guaranteed. They might not have expected to add Fields, but when the opportunity arose on draft night, they used their 2022 first-round pick to move up and grab the Ohio State star with the No. 11 pick.
On paper, the Bears don't need to play Fields anytime soon. Dalton posted a 53.8 QBR while playing behind an injury-riddled offensive line in Dallas last season. Chicago paid him to be, well, Andy Dalton this year. If it still wants that out of its quarterback position, drafting Fields shouldn't get in the way. If it really, absolutely wants to give Fields a redshirt year, Matt Nagy could even turn to Foles if Dalton were to get hurt or struggle. As you might remember, Foles famously knows the system.
In reality, the Bears are likely to show about as much patience with Dalton as they did with Glennon a few years ago. Fields is the future, and if Nagy and Pace want to be part of that future, it's in their interest to show off that valuable player they just acquired in the draft. Whether consciously or subconsciously, teams typically draft a quarterback and then use every piece of evidence they have to convince themselves that he's on the path they want. It's possible that the Bears learned something from the Trubisky experience, but imagine how you would react to seeing Fields step on the field after watching a few Dalton starts.
The natural landing point for Fields, then, should be early in the season. The Bears start the season with games against the Rams, Bengals and Browns. If that run starts 0-3 or 1-2, Nagy would be staring down his best opportunity to get Fields in the lineup. They would have a two-game run against the Lions and Raiders, who project to be two of the worst defenses in football.
Things get tougher after that, which might lead to a second possibility. After that light two-game stretch, Chicago's next four games come against the Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers and Steelers, followed by a Week 10 bye. If the Bears don't want Fields to face four of the league's most terrifying pass-rushers in consecutive order, they could wait for the bye to insert him into the starting lineup. Doing so would require the sort of patience NFL teams typically lack.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
First start: Week 5 at Houston
The Patriots are not playing games. After posting their first losing season since 2000, Bill Belichick & Co. restocked the cupboard on both sides of the football. Cam Newton didn't have much to work with in 2020, but he's back with four new starting receivers in Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Newton's contract guarantees him only $3.5 million, though, so it shouldn't have been a surprise when New England took Jones with the No. 15 pick.
What happens next is up in the air. Like Lance, Jones doesn't have much high-level experience, having thrown 556 passes across four years at Alabama. The offense he ran at Alabama was heavy on run-pass option and gave Jones a mismatch at receiver on virtually every snap. He might be ready to win a camp battle and step in immediately. He might also need a full year of time to develop, and unlike many other coaches, Belichick has the job security to take his time if necessary.
The other moves Belichick made this offseason, though, make me think that he'll insert Jones sooner rather than later. Newton struggled as a passer last season, and the 2015 NFL MVP has a significant injury history. Newton generally stayed healthy in 2020, only missing time as a result of COVID-19, but it would be a surprise if he made it through all 17 starts in 2021 while consistently playing at a high level.
Of course, the game every Patriots fan has circled on their calendar comes in Week 4, when Tom Brady and the Buccaneers come to Foxborough for Brady's first game against his old team. If you're Belichick, do you trust a rookie like Jones to deal with the spectacle and the hype of that prime-time game? Do you want to throw Jones out there against one of the league's top defenses, one week after the Pats line up against the Saints?
Belichick will do it if he thinks Jones is ready, but there's a much more favorable run of opponents after that Bucs game. The Pats follow Tampa with games against the Texans, Cowboys and Jets, who aren't expected to have great defenses. Putting Jones in late in the Bucs game or starting him the following week would immediately move the Patriots past the Brady game and give Jones a chance of establishing them as playoff contenders in the AFC with a hot start. Years ago, after a blowout loss to the Chiefs, Belichick set the tone for what would happen next by repeatedly insisting that the Pats were "... on to Cincinnati." If they lose to Brady and the Bucs, Belichick's team could instead be on to their new quarterback.