Winning in NFL free agency doesn't often guarantee winning when the games come around in September. Teams such as the New York Jets and Washington Football Team have managed to land critical free agents at the top of the market in years past, only for those players to look like shadows of their former selves in their new digs. Organizations fall into traps and make mistakes we can see coming a mile away.
And yet, when you look at who just won Super Bowl LV, it would be impossible to deny that free agency played a big role. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers added key contributors on both sides of the ball throughout the year. On defense, they brought back Ndamukong Suh on a one-year deal to fill out one of the league's best defensive lines. On offense, they added talent in the fall by signing running back Leonard Fournette and wide receiver Antonio Brown. Most notably, of course, Tampa upgraded at quarterback by signing the most successful NFL player of all time in Tom Brady. The moves earned a rare "A" grade from me and helped propel Tampa to a title.
No team has made a signing as impactful as Brady this year, but I've scoured the deals handed out on the first few days of free agency to find my favorites. I'm looking at these deals from the team's perspective, so I'm trying to find contracts in which a player can outplay what he's expected to earn over the next several years. Let's count them down:
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10. LB Kyle Van Noy to New England
The deal: Two years, up to $13.6 million with the Patriots
I have to admit that I'm skeptical of the spending spree the Patriots went on in the opening hours of free agency, in part because it's the opposite of how the Patriots have typically acted in free agency. The move to bring back Van Noy seems much more in line with the Patriots' typical predilections. Bill Belichick traded a late-round pick for Van Noy, got three years of below-market, above-average performance from the former Lions draftee, then added a fourth-round comp pick when the Dolphins signed Van Noy away last year in free agency.
Miami paid $15 million for one year of Van Noy and then cut the 29-year-old. The Patriots will now bring him back for less than that over two seasons without having to give up a compensatory pick as part of the deal. Guaranteeing Nelson Agholor $16 million for one year doesn't seem like a typical Patriots move. Getting the best out of Van Noy and getting a pick for loaning him out for a year? That's more like it.
9. CB Justin Coleman to Miami
The deal: One year, $2.5 million with the Dolphins
Price matters! Two years ago, I wasn't a fan of the four-year, $36 million deal Coleman signed with the Lions, noting that Coleman had been bouncing around the league just before Matt Patricia made him the highest-paid slot corner in football. Away from Pete Carroll in Seattle, Coleman was often a problem with the Lions, as he gave up the eighth-most receiving yards of any corner in 2019 and followed it by allowing a passer rating of 135.0 in coverage in 2020. Cornerback stats can be problematic, but after paying him $18 million over two years, the new regime in Detroit decided to move on.
Coleman is a serviceable slot corner. At $9 million per year, his signing is a mistake. At the $2.5 million rate the Dolphins are paying him for 2021, it's a good deal. He'll be the favorite to take over for Nik Needham in the slot, with the Dolphins using 2020 first-rounder Noah Igbinoghene to back up Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside. It's clear that Brian Flores has wanted to build his defense from the secondary in, and this only furthers Miami's plan. I've never heard anybody in the NFL complain about having too many cornerbacks.
8. KR Andre Roberts to Houston
The deal: Two years, $5.5 million with the Texans
I'm not sure I can recall a team going about its business the way the Texans have in free agency. Their 2020 roster was too top-heavy and had too many obvious holes on defense. General manager Nick Caserio clearly has a plan to fix the bottom quarter of the team. The Texans have, by my count, signed at least 15 new players in free agency. All of them are on one- or two-year deals. There aren't a lot of stars in the bunch, but they are going to hopefully make fewer mistakes leading to big plays in 2021.
The moves are more intriguing in bulk than they are individually, so consider this Roberts deal to be representative of the bunch. An excellent return man and special-teamer, he has made three consecutive Pro Bowls with the Jets and Bills. He'll help a Texans team that ranked well below average on both kick and punt returns in 2020.
I'm not sure it's going to mean much if quarterback Deshaun Watson doesn't return, but I can appreciate that there's a coherent plan from the Texans to try to establish competency throughout the roster.
7. RB Mike Boone to Denver
The deal: Two years, $2.6 million with the Broncos
All Boone has done as a pro is produce. Working as the third back in Minnesota over the past three years, he has turned 71 carries into 379 yards and four touchdowns, including a 17-148-1 line in Week 17 against the Bears and their 10th-ranked rush defense by DVOA in 2019. He has actually seen more action in the preseason, where his 90 carries have produced 391 yards and three scores, along with 13 catches for 145 receiving yards. Boone had good measurables coming out of college at Cincinnati and played about half of the special-teams snaps for the Vikings over the past couple of years. He profiles like the sort of back who could emerge as a No. 1 if given the opportunity, and he should have a key member of the organization in his corner, given that new Broncos general manager George Paton just joined the team from Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have question marks at running back. Melvin Gordon had a wildly inconsistent season in his debut with Denver, ranking 44th out of 47 backs in success rate while seeing his receiving efficiency crater and his fumbles continue. It appeared as if the Broncos might have voided Gordon's 2021 guarantee of $4.5 million after the running back was arrested on DUI charges during the season, but those charges were dropped in March, and he will likely be on the roster.
More realistically, Boone might be ticketed for the Phillip Lindsay role in the offense. The 5-foot-8 back has flashed over the past few years, but he struggled to stay healthy in 2020 and ranked 47th out of those 47 qualifying backs in success rate. The Colorado product is now an unrestricted free agent after the Broncos rescinded their original-round tender.
At worst, Boone should be the No. 3 back for the Broncos. If Lindsay signs elsewhere and/or if Gordon continues to underwhelm, there's an opportunity for Boone to do more. The evidence we have suggests that he could be an above-average option if given the chance. He's closer to that chance in Denver.
6. G Kevin Zeitler to Baltimore
The deal: Three years, $22.5 million with the Ravens
Baltimore struck just before the negotiating period began to sign Zeitler, who had been cut by the Giants to free up $12 million. The market is deep with useful guards, but Zeitler might be the best of the bunch. The former Bengals draftee has never made a Pro Bowl, but his calling card is reliability, as he has missed one game over the past six years. He typically commits one holding penalty and allows one sack per season and otherwise delivers very good work on the interior.
For the Ravens, this is an example of general manager Eric DeCosta sticking to his team's core principles. The Ravens love compensatory picks, so by signing Zeitler after he was released by the Giants, Baltimore doesn't wash out the picks it is set to gain for losing Yannick Ngakoue or Matthew Judon in free agency. Everybody wants the Ravens to add an impact wide receiver, but their play on the interior was sloppy last season after they lost star guard Marshal Yanda to retirement.
If the Ravens had gone out on the first day of the free-agency negotiation period and paid top dollar for a wideout such as Kenny Golladay, they would have needed to get by on the interior. Instead, they made a major improvement that should help the core of their offense, which will still be running the football. They're still in position to add a wide receiver in a bloated free-agent class, netting them two starters for the price of one.
5. EDGE Haason Reddick to Carolina
The deal: One year, $6 million with the Panthers
When a player breaks out in a limited sample, there's always the possibility of teams treating it like his new normal and paying for that sort of production on a multiyear deal. This seems like too much of an overreaction to the chances of Reddick's 2020 being a fluke. Even Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah were getting $10 million per season from the Dolphins last year with weaker résumés than the 12.5-sack season Reddick just had. I would have guessed a one-year deal for Reddick, who was the No. 13 overall pick in 2017, would have come in around $10 million or so.
To be fair, his underlying production as a pass-rusher might not support a repeat of those numbers. He had only 16 knockdowns, and edge rushers typically turn about 45% of their knockdowns into sacks, suggesting he might have ran a little hot. Indeed, he had a couple of sacks in which he got the quarterback just as the ball was coming out and the play was ruled a fumble as opposed to an incomplete pass. Reddick ranked 21st among edge rushers in pass rush win rate.
Watch his sacks and you'll also poke some holes in those totals. If you're looking for plays in which he beat a starting offensive lineman clean and created a sack for himself, you'll find ... three. He beat 49ers tackle Mike McGlinchey for a sack late in the season and got the best of Giants rookie Andrew Thomas twice as part of a five-sack performance against Daniel Jones & Co. Reddick beat tight ends (T.J. Hockenson) and running backs (Carlos Hyde) in pass protection, took advantage of twists, created five sacks against backup linemen, cleaned up a pressure or two created by his teammates and went totally unblocked for one against the Eagles.
At the same time, though, you could line me up on those twists and I'm not getting home to the quarterback. Reddick has always been regarded as a player with outstanding physical traits who is capable of playing multiple roles in a defense, but 2020 was really the first year in which the Cardinals stuck him on the edge and let him do his thing. There's a decent chance he gets better in that role with more reps. A reunion with college head coach Matt Rhule in Carolina means Reddick will have support, and I hope that the Panthers won't mess around with his spot in the lineup. They will have a young, promising trio of pass-rushers in 2021 with Reddick, Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos.
4. EDGE Yannick Ngakoue to Las Vegas
The deal: Two years, $26 million with the Raiders
It's hard to get a good deal on a player at his peak after a career season, so if a team wants to somehow come away with a bargain in free agency, it has to be willing to take on some risk. With Ngakoue, the risk is that the Raiders are getting a player coming off two relatively disappointing seasons. The former Jags standout started his career by averaging just under 10 sacks and 30 quarterback knockdowns over his first three seasons. Over the past two, however, he has dropped off to an average of eight sacks and 13 knockdowns.
If you want to argue that Ngakoue is a below-average run-defender, you can do that. Frankly, in a league in which teams are passing more than ever before, that means less and less. Teams are paying their edge defenders to rush the passer, and when you consider Ngakoue's five-year career on the whole, he has been effective doing that. Since entering the league, he ranks 12th in sacks and 14th in knockdowns. His pass-rushing numbers over that time frame are virtually identical to those of Frank Clark, who cost the Chiefs first- and second-round picks in a trade and is on a five-year, $104 million deal.
Clark is the better player, but the difference in talent and performance is way smaller than the difference in price. Ngakoue is still only 25 and doesn't have any sort of notable injury history. This deal either pays him $21 million for one year or $26 million for two. It's a key addition for the Raiders, whose 4% sack rate since trading away Khalil Mack ranks last in the NFL. With former Jaguars coach Gus Bradley coming to town as Las Vegas' new defensive coordinator, a return to form from Ngakoue could finally push a moribund Raiders defense in the right direction.
3. WR John Brown to Las Vegas
The deal: One year, $3.8 million with the Raiders
One important thing I look for in a contract is a plausible way for a player to outplay his deal. Some contracts have all the upside baked in, where the team is paying a player with a limited track record like he's going to be the best possible version of himself for the majority of his new deal. There are rare exceptions (like Za'Darius Smith to the Packers), but those contracts almost never work out. This year, the deals for Leonard Floyd (Rams) and Trey Hendrickson (Bengals) might fit into that category.
With Brown, the Raiders are paying a pittance for a guy who was a legitimate WR1 in 2019 with a then-inconsistent quarterback in Josh Allen. Brown averaged 9.2 yards per target and 70.7 receiving yards per game, and while those were outlier numbers for his career, that sort of production would come in closer to $15 million or so per season on the open market. We know he has that sort of upside in his back pocket.
Last season, with Stefon Diggs taking over as the primary wideout and Allen developing into a superstar, Brown's production was down. His efficiency, though, remained similar. He averaged 8.8 yards per target and 13.9 yards per reception. Injuries essentially limited him to eight games, but he topped 70 yards in five of them. If the Raiders get the 2020 version of Brown, he'll outplay this deal. If they get the 2019 version of Brown, he'll be one of the biggest bargains of the season. He should take over the Nelson Agholor role for the Raiders.
2. TE Rob Gronkowski to Tampa Bay
The deal: One year, $8 million with the Buccaneers
When you have the chance to sign a Hall of Famer who just helped win you a Super Bowl, you take it. Gronk isn't the physical wrecking ball he was during his prime, but we just saw how effective he still is both as a blocker and receiver for the Bucs in 2020.
After taking the first quarter of the season to recharge his batteries, Gronkowski became a regular part of Tampa's crowded passing game. Over that time frame, he was fifth among tight ends in receiving yards (535) and tied for third in touchdowns (seven).
1. OT Trent Williams to San Francisco
The deal: Six years, $138.1 million with the 49ers
The highest-paid offensive lineman in league history by the small matter of $10,000 per year, Williams is the sort of player who almost never hits free agency. Good players hit the market every season. A handful of very good players become free agents every year, although there's usually some sort of red flag or string attached. You might get a superstar on the downside of his career, but in terms of truly great players still in the prime of their careers at their respective positions, it's rare to see even one hit the market in a typical offseason.
Williams' unique circumstances made him the exception. He sat out the 2019 season in Washington before being traded to the 49ers, who agreed to a no-franchise-tag clause when they restructured his deal. Left tackle is regarded as the fourth-most valuable position in the game when you look at peak contract values, and Williams is a Hall of Fame-caliber player. At 32, while injuries have cost him time in each of his past five active seasons, he should still have years ahead as one of the league's best left tackles.
In a typical situation, the 49ers would have used the franchise tag at $13.8 million and used that to create leverage in negotiating a new deal. Instead, with Williams allowed to hit the open market, we saw just how much the tag depresses value for the top players in football. He has the largest annual average salary of any lineman in history and became the first lineman with a contract whose maximum value hit nine figures.
The numbers at the end of the contract might just be for show -- and the deal isn't cheap by any measure -- but the 49ers locked in one of the most important players in football for years to come. It also frees them up to consider drafting a quarterback in the first round, which would then allow them to shed the cap space occupied by Jimmy Garoppolo and use it on other players.