It's never too early to examine NFL free agency, which will be running the 40-yard dash on one bad wheel this offseason. Lost revenue from the COVID-19 pandemic forced the NFL and NFLPA to negotiate a $175 million salary cap floor for 2021, a sizable dip for projections of well above $200 million.
The final cap number could end up higher than $180 million, but teams are preparing for the worst. This is bad news for the NFL's middle class. This is not so bad news for top-of-the-market players such as Dak Prescott, Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff and Justin Simmons. They'll get paid regardless.
Once colleague Kevin Seifert's top-50 free agent rankings hit the streets a few weeks back, we analyzed rosters, made calls to league personnel and mapped out the best fits for the best players available, led by a massive surprise that Dallas can stop with the use of the franchise tag. Here are my thoughts on each player's ideal landing spot come March:
Jump ahead:
Dak Prescott
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Bud Dupree
Aaron Jones
Patrick Peterson
1. Dak Prescott, QB
Best fit: Carolina Panthers
OK, so we're having a little fun. Dallas keeps saying it will extend Prescott, but a deal isn't close. Many people around the league still expect that to happen. But the Cowboys have said that for two years. At what point do we stop believing them?
Franchise tagging Prescott a second time will lock the quarterback into a $37 million salary, which instantly becomes a benchmark for per-year value on a long-term deal. With Dallas picking 10th overall in a strong draft for quarterbacks, selecting a passer for one-eighth the annual price isn't a terrible strategy if you're still unwilling to meet Prescott's demands. Dallas isn't in terrible cap trouble with $14.2 million in space, but that's with Prescott off the books. They have work to do.
In Carolina, Teddy Bridgewater's future is murky after his late-season struggles, and the Panthers have shown they are all-in on the quarterback carousel. They got involved in the Matthew Stafford sweepstakes. If Deshaun Watson becomes available, they will probably do the same. They have $10.9 million in cap space and could create more with cuts and restructures. Moving on from Bridgewater's contract would hit Carolina with $20 million in dead money, but they would also have $22.9 million in salary cap off the books. The tricky part of Bridgewater's deal is the $10 million of base salary guaranteed for 2021, so trading him would be the cleanest option if they do move on.
Let Prescott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady get weird with a schemed-up mix of spread and NFL offensive concepts.
2. Trent Williams, OT
Best fit: Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco tried to re-sign Williams before the regular season but might have missed the window. After a stellar year in the Bay, Williams is eyeing top-shelf tackle money. If he goes to the highest bidder, Jacksonville needs just about everything and has $74 million in cap space. Protecting Trevor Lawrence is a start, though Williams might want to sign with a contender.
3. Leonard Williams, DL
Best fit: New York Giants
I continue to hear the Giants will put forth a strong effort to keep Williams, who broke out with 11.5 sacks and 30 quarterback hits. Williams likes the way DC Patrick Graham got him loose with stunts and tilted fronts. Keep the party rolling with a big payday before the new league year. If that doesn't happen, Williams will have plenty of suitors after realizing his enormous potential in 2020.
4. Brandon Scherff, G
Best fit: Washington Football Team
This offense isn't dynamic enough to lose an anchor on the interior line -- especially a top-three guard. And coming off Scherff's $15 million franchise tag, Washington can structure a long-term deal that takes up less cap space than that in Year 1.
5. Hunter Henry, TE
Best fit: Indianapolis Colts
This offense is ready to take off ... once it figures out the quarterback spot. Adding a new dimension at tight end to complement young pieces Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. will set up the new quarterback nicely. Let Jack Doyle handle the dirty work and Henry will get open. Don't sleep on the Chargers keeping him, too. Losing him would be big for Justin Herbert.
6. Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE
Best fit: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens traded for Ngakoue with a long-term plan in mind. They will have trouble re-signing both Ngakoue and Matthew Judon, and Ngakoue's unique pass-rush skill set makes him more than a rental. Baltimore, with $14.9 million in cap space, could franchise tag Ngakoue if it doesn't come to a new deal by March.
7. Bud Dupree, EDGE
Best fit: Tennessee Titans
The Titans are desperate for pass-rush help, and Dupree won't fall flat like Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley did there. Plus, Tennessee might get a slight discount (key word: slight) with Dupree recovering from a torn ACL that could hamper his early-season production. Dupree proved to be a beast the past two years. The Steelers want to keep him but are $33 million over the cap.
8. Kenny Golladay, WR
Best fit: New York Giants
Golden Tate could be done in New York, Sterling Shepard never emerged as a true No. 1 and Darius Slayton is a fifth-round pick. Time to invest in a top-of-market guy for Daniel Jones. Detroit can franchise tag Golladay, but that's hardly a slam dunk after he played five games for the Lions last season. The Giants signed high-priced corner James Bradberry last offseason, and he played well for them. Might duplicate that strategy at receiver.
9. Justin Simmons, S
Best fit: Denver Broncos
Denver should and will do everything possible to keep Simmons, who is perfect for Vic Fangio's defense. If Denver is in on Fangio for another year, they must be the same for Simmons, one of the game's most complete safeties who will have a massive market if Denver doesn't stop him.
10. Allen Robinson II, WR
Best fit: Washington Football Team
It feels like he's done in Chicago, and Washington needs a top guy to elevate the offense. Terry McLaurin is terrific, and though some around the league want to see more before placing him in the top tier, he's on his way there entering Year 3 and would pair seamlessly with another high-level receiver. And Washington almost landed Amari Cooper last free agency. They won't miss this time. Washington is exhausting all options at the quarterback position and wants to surround the position with weaponry.
11. Jonnu Smith, TE
Best fit: Buffalo Bills
What better way to take this offense over the top than with a tight end who can catch up the seam or take a fly sweep 20 yards? Dawson Knox is a solid option but could use a complementary piece next to him. Buffalo is $1.6 million under the cap but has several veterans it can release or whose contracts could be restructured. After 15 wins and an AFC title game appearance, the Bills can think along these terms: What moves will put us past the Chiefs in the AFC?
12. Trey Hendrickson, EDGE
Best fit: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need help at several spots on defense after Dante Fowler Jr. produced an underwhelming three sacks last year. New Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot helped draft and develop Hendrickson in New Orleans. He's very familiar with his skill set. Some teams will have concerns about Hendrickson as a one-hit wonder who benefited from playing opposite Cameron Jordan (6.5 sacks in his first three seasons before a 13.5-sack breakout last year), but the Saints might be more comfortable giving him that money because of the large file they have on him.
The Falcons have serious work to do before free agency while sitting $41.7 million over the cap.
13. Chris Godwin, WR
Best fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is prepared for the franchise tag this year. It's the cleanest way for Tampa to try to keep its Super Bowl core intact. He's too good to let leave the building. The Buccaneers have at least five key free agents and want to keep as many as possible. That process starts with Godwin.
14. Aaron Jones, RB
Best fit: Green Bay Packers
This seems clear-cut: Let Jamaal Williams walk, franchise or transition tag Jones at what should be a very reasonable number (somewhere between $8 million and $11 million), then drop the hammer on defenses with a Jones-AJ Dillon combo. Dillon is the power back while Jones can do it all. This will make Aaron Rodgers happy. And isn't that important, given his postseason comments about an uncertain future?
15. Shaquil Barrett, EDGE
Best fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Barrett has shown Tampa enough over two seasons to become a mainstay. He was never going to duplicate his 19.5-sack performance in 2019, but he was solid this year with eight sacks and spectacular in the NFC title game with three more. The Bucs are riding the Tom Brady window, and the best way to do that is by retaining one of the game's best pass-rushers.
16. Taylor Moton, OT
Best fit: Carolina Panthers
Carolina plans to keep Moton via a long-term deal or a franchise tag. One of the game's emerging young tackles would have a robust free-agency market, but the Panthers likely won't let him get there. Whoever the quarterback is in Carolina will like this news: Moton posted an impressive 81.2 Pro Football Focus grade.
17. Corey Linsley, C
Best fit: New York Jets
Connor McGovern wasn't great at center last season, and since his $8 million salary is guaranteed for 2021, the Jets can kick him to guard. Linsley, one of the league's most consistent centers, gives New York a leader up front to help a young quarterback, whether Sam Darnold, a draft pick or a new option via trade.
18. Corey Davis, WR
Best fit: Chicago Bears
With Robinson on the way out, the Bears will have one of the thinnest receiver corps in the league. Davis is a solid -- if less spectacular -- reinforcement. Watch for New England or Baltimore here, too.
19. Lavonte David, LB
Best fit: Miami Dolphins
Miami's defensive picture is nearly complete, and the image of David flying around with Jerome Baker at inside linebacker should excite coach Brian Flores. David comes from a 4-3 but has the flexibility and athleticism to play in Miami's 3-4 base. David is a Miami Northwestern High legend, too. And Miami has $21.7 million in cap space.
Dallas makes sense here, too, but the Cowboys have money tied to Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. Many teams with a 4-3 are either saddled with bloated contracts at the position or have an emerging young player who needs to be paid. Watch for Tennessee, which could have a need if Jayon Brown walks and knows what David can do.
20. Joe Thuney, G
Best fit: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati needs help across the offensive line. Snagging a premier free-agent guard is a good start. The Bengals could then double down in the second-tier tackle market and draft Oregon's Penei Sewell with the No. 5 pick. Lots of options for a team that must keep Joe Burrow protected. The Bengals have $32.7 million in cap space to make it happen.
21. Alejandro Villanueva, OT
Best fit: Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles has a major need at left tackle with Sam Tevi hitting free agency. Villanueva would be an upgrade, and though his best fit might be Pittsburgh, the Steelers probably won't be aggressive spenders. Villanueva is 32 but has only six seasons of tread as a starter, so he's still fresh, and his 74.6 Pro Football Focus grade is solid. Villanueva's offensive line coach in Pittsburgh, Shaun Sarrett, landed an assistant O-line job with Los Angeles this offseason.
22. A.J. Green, WR
Best fit: Baltimore Ravens
The truth is that Baltimore's offense is a tough sell for receivers who want the ball often. With a multitiered rushing offense lacking extensive passing concepts, Baltimore might be best off drafting receivers it can tailor to the system. But Green could fit because he's going on Year 11 and is a bargain if his low 2020 production (47 receptions, 523 yards, two touchdowns) was due to hesitancy returning from a foot injury.
If he's healthy and confident, he can provide experience and nuanced route running to a team that needs it -- without requiring high volume in an offense that can't provide it.
23. Matt Milano, LB
Best fit: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati needs to get more explosive on defense, and Milano can anchor a linebacker corps lacking high-level talent. The Bengals could lose several players to free agency and must replenish. Milano created a strong market as a weakside 4-3 linebacker who can effectively blitz (3.5 sacks in 10 games last season). He might still be most valuable to Buffalo, which will attempt to re-sign him.
24. Haason Reddick, EDGE
Best fit: Denver Broncos
Though Matt Rhule loves his Temple guys, Carolina's 4-3 defense might not fit Reddick, who finally found a home as a 3-4 pass-rusher. Denver has a big decision to make on Von Miller's $17.5 million option. Miller turns 32 in March, and even if Denver brings him back, it needs to plan for the future at pass-rusher opposite Bradley Chubb (though Malik Reed is a good in-house option).
25. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Best fit: New York Jets
Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur will be looking for a yards-after-catch demon with toughness, explosion and blocking for his 49ers-based system (think: Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). Smith-Schuster would fit as a do-it-all option opposite Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder. He's not as fast as Samuel or Aiyuk but posted 409 yards after the catch last season, tops among free-agent receivers.
The Jets are taking a look at Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller V at the top of the market, as well as second-tier options such as restricted free agent Zach Pascal.
26. Desmond King II, CB
Best fit: Green Bay Packers
The Bucs targeted Packers slot corner Chandon Sullivan in the NFC title game, and Green Bay's struggles on the back end have forced elite cover man Jaire Alexander into zone coverage too often. King is one of the game's best slots and would instantly improve this unit, though Green Bay's pesky $28.1 million cap deficit is a hurdle. Wouldn't surprise to see Tennessee, which traded for King midseason, attempt to lock King up before free agency.
27. Curtis Samuel, WR
Best fit: Jacksonville Jaguars
Urban Meyer recruited Samuel to Ohio State and once considered him his best playmaker since Percy Harvin. A reunion seems natural, as Meyer could use Samuel -- more playmaker than elite route runner -- all over the field. Samuel will be coveted as a slightly cheaper alternative to the top of the market. Also watch for the 49ers here. They love this style of player.
28. Shaquill Griffin, CB
Best fit: Dallas Cowboys
Defensive back should be a top priority for Dallas, and Griffin is considered the top outside corner on the market. He can cover and is a willing tackler. Seattle will try to keep him. The Cowboys have to throw some money at the secondary, even with $14.1 million in space and the Dak Prescott deal staring them down.
29. Marcus Williams, S
Best fit: Detroit Lions
New Lions coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn come from New Orleans, where they watched Williams intercept 13 passes and break up 30 more over four seasons. A defense in need of playmaking on the back end will explore signing the instinctual post safety. So will New Orleans. Players with his ball skills get paid.
30. Will Fuller V, WR
Best fit: New England Patriots
No team needs a playmaking upgrade more, and Fuller has some New England traits -- fast but isn't limited to deep balls, has run-after-catch ability, will have a robust but not outrageous market. The Dolphins also need a true vertical threat who can get it done at all levels of the field. Maybe he simply follows Deshaun Watson wherever he goes. Fuller is oft-injured but showed No. 1 qualities last season.
31. Patrick Peterson, CB
Best fit: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders need leadership in the secondary in the worst way. Peterson turns 31 in July and has made $94 million, so maybe team fit and contention will be most important to him. Also watch for Tampa, where Peterson's former coaches Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles are coming off a Super Bowl appearance.
32. John Johnson III, S
Best fit: Atlanta Falcons
The Rams will likely attempt to keep Johnson, whose football savvy will get him paid, but Atlanta's safety position is a major need, with Ricardo Allen the only veteran under contract with legitimate starter's experience. Cutting Allen would save $6.25 million on the cap. The Falcons could use that money to secure Johnson, a building block for Arthur Smith's first season. Watch for the Raiders, too, as Jon Gruden attempts to solidify his secondary.
33. Marcus Maye, S
Best fit: Philadelphia Eagles
Maye reunites with his position coach in New York, Dennard Wilson, who was hired by the Eagles this offseason. Also watch out for Dallas, which also needs safety help and made Dan Quinn, Maye's college coordinator at Florida, its defensive coordinator. At least six teams will be in the safety market.
34. Matthew Judon, EDGE
Best fit: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle somehow managed 46 sacks without dominant pass-rushers up front. The Seahawks aren't big free-agent spenders, but expect them to comb the market here. It's time to get recently acquired Carlos Dunlap a counterpart. Baltimore probably won't place a second franchise tag on the two-time Pro Bowler. Watch out for Jacksonville, where Urban Meyer just hired Ravens defensive line coach Joe Cullen as his defensive coordinator.
35. Leonard Floyd, EDGE
Best fit: Los Angeles Chargers
New coach Brandon Staley worked with Floyd in Chicago and Los Angeles, where Floyd revived his career with 10.5 sacks as a Ram. The Rams are strapped for cash after the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff swap and could have trouble keeping in-house free agents. The Rams' $28.4 million deficit is the fifth largest in the NFL -- and that's before the QB trade hits the books, adding about $10 million.
36. Anthony Harris, S
Best fit: Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanski knows Harris' game well from his Minnesota days, and Harris has played strong or free safety in his career, providing Cleveland with much-needed flexibility as Grant Delpit works his way back from a torn Achilles. Cleveland can run it back with Karl Joseph, who played on a one-year deal, but needs reinforcements regardless. A few more pieces and the Browns are firmly contending in the AFC.
37. Larry Ogunjobi, DT
Best fit: Philadelphia Eagles
Philly loves interior defensive linemen who can get upfield and disrupt passing lanes. And with Fletcher Cox turning 30, it's time for more youth up front to pair with Javon Hargrave inside. Philly is already hard at work on the cap, reworking the contracts of Alshon Jeffery and Malik Jackson to ease the $53 million deficit. Cleveland wants to keep him but has to pay several ascending players, and Ogunjobi might be the odd man out there.
38. Romeo Okwara, EDGE
Best fit: Detroit Lions
A team with a minimal pass rush should work hard to retain the one player on the roster who gets consistent pressure on the quarterback. Trey Flowers will be back with guaranteed money on his 2021 deal, and a healthy campaign from him coupled with Okwara is a good start for Detroit's new defense. Also watch for New England, where Matt Patricia, who helped develop Okwara for three seasons in Detroit, is an assistant.
39. Chidobe Awuzie, CB
Best fit: Houston Texans
Houston needs help all over the depth chart -- and a viable corner opposite Bradley Roby. Awuzie missed half the season due to injury but will have a market due to his speed, size and coverage skills. Also watch out for New Orleans, where Kris Richard, Awuzie's coordinator in Dallas for two seasons, is joining the staff.
40. William Jackson III, CB
Best fit: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers wanted to draft Jackson 25th overall in 2017. He went 24th to Cincinnati, and the team chose Artie Burns, who fell out of favor and is now in Chicago. Corner doesn't seem like a major need, but starters Joe Haden and Steven Nelson are 2022 free agents, and Mike Hilton and Cameron Sutton are free agents this March. Haden turns 32 in April. Getting Jackson covers Pittsburgh for any scenario. The Steelers face tough decisions at almost every position.
41. Marvin Jones Jr., WR
Best fit: Miami Dolphins
The Rams need more of a vertical burner, so not sure it makes sense to pair Jones with old pal Matthew Stafford in L.A. In Miami, Jones' veteran presence and savvy to get open would help Tua Tagovailoa -- or another big-named quarterback possibly available via trade. Jones and other veterans will be intrigued by Miami, which finally has an exciting team to match the South Beach sizzle.
42. Nelson Agholor, WR
Best fit: Las Vegas Raiders
Agholor turned a minimum one-year deal into an explosive 2020 campaign with 48 catches, 896 yards and eight touchdowns with the Raiders. Las Vegas should keep its own and reward a resurgent player. The Raiders had a top-10 offense with Darren Waller and Agholor as top options, and keeping Agholor helps Henry Ruggs III develop into a focal point without the pressure of having to carry the passing game. Agholor would fit the Jets' new attack, as well. They will evaluate him.
43. Richard Sherman, CB
Best fit: New York Jets
Sherman raves about Robert Saleh, who was with him in Seattle and San Francisco. Why not make it three pairings? Sherman will have a market for his services but turns 33 in March and missed 11 games in 2020, so he should be reasonably attained. If Saleh wants a star veteran to set the tone for his younger players, this is the guy.
44. Melvin Ingram III, EDGE
Best fit: Las Vegas Raiders
Ingram played four seasons for new Raiders coordinator Gus Bradley, racking up 24.5 sacks from 2017 to 2019 before injuries and a mini-holdout derailed his 2020 season. Clelin Ferrell hasn't proved a consistent pass-rusher yet, so while he works that out in Year 3, give Ingram a big one-year payout to win on third downs.
45. Gerald Everett, TE
Best fit: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has seen Everett's skill set twice a season and respects his ability. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was the Rams' passing game coordinator and will be implementing the system Everett knows well. Market is key for Everett, who never played more than 40% of the snaps until this season (57%). Can he handle being a No. 1? He's immensely talented.
46. Carl Lawson, EDGE
Best fit: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings must address a pass rush that struggled as Danielle Hunter missed all of last season. It's uncharacteristic to see Minnesota rank 28th in team sacks. Lawson fits Mike Zimmer's style as a heavy-handed 263-pounder who can win with physicality and power. Plus he's from the Bengals defensive tree Zimmer knows well.
47. Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE
Best fit: Cleveland Browns
Cleveland tried to sign him last offseason, and now the Browns get him -- at a steep discount. The Browns need a pass-rusher opposite Myles Garrett now that Olivier Vernon is hitting free agency. Clowney's days as a high earner might be over. But he can still stop the run and apply pressure on the quarterback.
48. Andy Dalton, QB
Best fit: Denver Broncos
The Broncos are combing the available QBs in the carousel, and if they strike out on the big names, the next-best option is signing a veteran to push Drew Lock. Dalton provides flexibility in Denver, which can enter the year with Lock as the starter and have a capable player ready to play if Lock doesn't curb his turnover issues.
49. Cam Newton, QB
Best fit: Jacksonville Jaguars
Look, Newton's cold market last year clearly outlined where the NFL stood with him. He then threw eight touchdowns in 15 games and ranked 30th in ESPN QBR (47.0) while playing on a one-year, $1.75 million contract. Expecting a robust starter's market for Newton at this stage, after all the injuries, isn't realistic, and there's not a clear-cut home if New England doesn't bring him back. Maybe Washington or someone with familiarity will take a chance.
Otherwise, reuniting with Urban Meyer, his Florida coach, for a season as Trevor Lawrence's backup isn't the worst thing.
50. Eric Wilson, LB
Best fit: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota generally likes to re-sign players it developed, and Wilson went from undrafted free agent to splash playmaker with 118 tackles, three sacks and three interceptions in 2020. The Vikings would be smart to make this work, especially with several key defensive players either coming off injury or aging. Minnesota has a $12.1 million cap deficit to assuage first.