The 2020 season didn't even have to end before the 2021 offseason heated up. The Lions and Rams started off the festivities on Saturday night by agreeing to swap Matthew Stafford for three picks and Jared Goff, kicking off what is expected to be a wild few months of player movement with a rare quarterback-for-quarterback trade.
They won't be the last starting quarterbacks to end up in new places this offseason, and that isn't the only position set to undergo significant upheaval.
The 2021 wide receiver market is uniquely stacked for a number of reasons. On the player side, several of the veterans from the last great free-agent class of wideouts -- 2018 -- are again free agents. The 2017 draft class also had several star wide receivers develop after the first round, and those players are set to hit the open market. There are also a handful of well-known veterans who are hitting free agency after disappointing or inconsistent seasons.
Typically, those players would be locked up on new deals, but this is a unique offseason. Thirteen wideouts were picked in the first 60 picks of the 2020 NFL draft, flooding teams with promising young talent. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay's first 2021 mock draft has seven more wide receivers coming off the board in the first round. Plenty of teams have access to cheap wide receivers with upside right now.
The other factor is the salary cap. Teams projecting the cap years out were expecting a number around $210 million in 2021. Instead, as a result of missing league revenue from 2020, the cap baseline will start at $175 million -- and that $35 million gap is going to impact free agency. We'll see more cap casualties, so the market should be flooded with veterans. As a result, while the players at the top of the market will still likely be paid like they're superstars, the guys below them might be available at lower prices than you might expect.
I started looking into what the wide receiver class might look like in free agency this year and came up with 43 names. Let's talk about what their situations look like heading into the open market, along with projections on where they might end up. We'll start with the top of the market: the three guys in this class who have a legitimate case as No. 1 wide receivers when healthy.
Jump to a section:
The No. 1s | The star slot WRs
The 2020 breakouts | The veterans
The intriguing pieces | Best of the rest
The No. 1 wideouts
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
2020 stats: 102 catches, 1,250 yards, 6 TDs
2021 age: 28
Robinson's role has been the same in each of his stops after high school: bail out middling quarterbacks as a reliable target over the middle and a monster on 50-50 balls. At Penn State, he caught passes from Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenberg. In the NFL, he has caught passes from Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, Chase Daniel and Chad Henne.
Over the past three seasons, among receivers who have been targeted at least 300 times, the only receivers who have had a lower expected catch rate than Robinson are Mike Evans, Robby Anderson and Julio Jones. Robinson has caught 63.9% of his passes when his expected catch rate was 58.9%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He has been extremely productive without competent quarterback play; there will be teams with better quarterbacks that think he can produce DeAndre Hopkins-level numbers with a more accurate passer.
The big question is whether he'll hit the market. The Bears are $10.5 million over the projected 2021 cap, and that's without addressing their problems under center, where Trubisky is a free agent. Robinson doesn't want to be franchise-tagged, but the Bears' wide receiver depth chart if he leaves would be the NFL's worst. Chicago has used the transition tag on Kyle Fuller in the past, but that tag would encourage teams with cap space to offer up a deal with a big first-year payout, something the Bears can't afford. I think they will use the leverage of a tag to get a long-term deal done, but with a smaller first-year cap figure.
Projected: Four years, $84 million from the Bears
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
2020 stats: 20 catches, 338 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 28
Despite the fact that Robinson has already played out his entire rookie deal and a three-year contract with the Bears, he's the same age as Golladay, who is just finishing his four-year rookie deal with the Lions. Golladay entered the league at 24, so this is probably going to be his best (and possibly only) chance at a significant payday. The 6-foot-4 wideout is unfortunately coming off a disappointing contract year, one that saw him limited to five games because of hamstring and hip injuries.
It's possible that the Lions franchise Golladay, but after trading Stafford and starting its rebuild, I'm not sure there's much logic in keeping him for one year at about $16 million unless it's to produce a sign-and-trade. The Lions would expect to get a third-round compensatory pick back for him if they let him leave and didn't make a significant free-agent signing to replace him.
He could be the receiver the Ravens go after, despite general manager Eric DeCosta's suggestions that Baltimore is happy with the receivers they had last season.
Projected: Four years, $74 million from the Ravens
Will Fuller, Houston Texans
2020 stats: 53 catches, 879 yards, 8 TDs
2021 age: 27
Fuller was healthy through an entire season for the first time in 2020. That's the good news. The bad news is that his season was halted after 11 games because of a PED suspension, with Fuller still to sit out one more game at the beginning of 2021. He was on pace for a 1,279-yard campaign before the suspension and seemed to form a stronger connection on the field with Deshaun Watson after taking over as Houston's top wideout from DeAndre Hopkins.
As you might have heard, Watson isn't very happy these days. He has requested a trade, and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that he won't change his mind even after Houston hired its new head coach. That doesn't mean the Texans won't stop trying to keep him. Retaining Fuller is another way they can try to placate their star quarterback, although a franchise tag might only be the first step in that process.
Projected: Franchise tag from the Texans
The star slot receivers
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 stats: 65 catches, 840 yards, 7 TDs
2021 age: 25
Godwin is primarily a slot receiver with the Bucs, but he has taken 31% of his snaps split out wide in both 2019 and 2020. He has been more effective working out of the slot, but he has the versatility and size to serve as a primary receiver around the formation. His numbers fell in 2020 as the Buccaneers slowed down and didn't attack downfield as frequently with Tom Brady at quarterback, but the Penn State product still averaged 10 yards per target, which ranked sixth in the league.
The Bucs have some tough decisions to make with their roster this offseason, given that Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Ndamukong Suh, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and Godwin are all free agents. They can't retain all of them, and they're likely to get below-market prices on Brown (and Gronkowski). There's another slot receiver Tampa could go after on the cheap, but we'll get to him later.
My guess is that Godwin's versatility appeals to another team that lost two big-name contributors to the Buccaneers last offseason. The Patriots sorely need weapons at receiver, and Godwin profiles as the sort of player who could continue to flourish with a larger target share. He also doesn't turn 25 until next month, which might make him more desirable to the Pats than Robinson or Golladay.
Projected: Four years, $78 million from the Patriots
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 stats: 97 catches, 831 yards, 9 TDs
2021 age: 25
It has already been a strange career for Smith-Schuster, who had one of the best sophomore seasons in football history. The USC product had 1,426 yards in 2018, but despite shedding Antonio Brown's massive target share, he has totaled just 1,383 yards over the two ensuing campaigns. Injuries cost Smith-Schuster in 2019, and the wildly conservative Pittsburgh passing attack hurt him the most in 2020. He averaged just 8.6 yards per catch this season, the third-worst mark in the league among receivers with at least 50 targets. He finished the season as a scapegoat for Pittsburgh's late-year collapse, with critics claiming his dancing at midfield before games on TikTok somehow caused the Steelers to lose games.
I'm not sure that matters much in the scheme of things. What teams actually see on the tape with Smith-Schuster is a tough receiver over the middle of the field who was able to do more damage as a downfield target when his quarterback actually seemed capable of making those throws. He might not be on the Hall of Fame track as it seemed after his second season -- and he's more locked into the slot than Godwin -- but it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which his numbers improve in a new home.
With the Steelers developing rookie Chase Claypool and in a messy cap situation, Smith-Schuster will likely hit the open market. I keep looking toward the Dolphins as a potential fit. They always have the option of using Mike Gesicki in the slot, but they gave a lot of snaps on the inside to Isaiah Ford with little return. They need to add playmakers for Tua Tagovailoa, and Smith-Schuster would be one key move.
Signing him opens up the No. 3 overall pick for Miami in this draft. The franchise can add either LSU's Ja'Marr Chase or Alabama's DeVonta Smith and suddenly give its young quarterback one of the league's best receiving corps, or it can head in a different direction and use the third pick on Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.
Projected: Four years, $70 million from the Dolphins
The 2020 breakouts
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
2020 stats: 65 catches, 984 yards, 5 TDs
2021 age: 26
For the second year in a row, the Titans might have cost themselves a star player. In 2019, after declining Jack Conklin's fifth-year option, they got a great season out of the former No. 8 overall pick, and then lost the right tackle in free agency when they would have otherwise held his rights for a fifth season. The same thing might happen with Davis, who had his fifth-year option declined last May.
Facing a contract year, he responded with a career season. While he was a boom-or-bust receiver, he had more booms (five 100-yard receiving games) than busts (three shutouts, including the postseason loss to the Ravens). Davis was third in the league in yards per target at 10.7, and he showed the sort of game-breaking work after the catch that we have seen from teammate A.J. Brown.
The Titans probably would like to retain Davis, but if his price tag creeps up past $12 million per season, they will need to move on. I keep coming back to Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers seems to be trying to induce the Packers into adding that last piece of the puzzle on offense. Davis worked with Matt LaFleur when the Green Bay coach was Tennessee's offensive coordinator in 2018, so he's comfortable in that system.
Projected: Four years, $52 million from the Packers
Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders
2020 stats: 48 catches, 896 yards, 8 TDs
2021 age: 28
One of the biggest bargains of free agency a year ago, Agholor signed a one-year deal for the veterans minimum with the Raiders after wearing out his welcome in Philadelphia. He proceeded to stun Eagles fans by leading the league in yards per target while serving as a field-stretching receiver for Las Vegas. Agholor still dropped seven of his 81 targets, but the good outweighs the bad when you're averaging 18.7 yards per catch.
Agholor's market is going to be fascinating. There are going to be teams that remember the guy who was run out of Philly for his drop problems, but he was also a difference-maker this season. The Raiders are $19 million over the cap, but they can get under pretty quickly by cutting Tyrell Williams and Lamarcus Joyner. Agholor could stick around in Las Vegas, but he's probably going to need to have this sort of season again to earn a multiyear deal in a better market.
Projected: One year, $11 million from Raiders
Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos
2020 stats: 51 catches, 742 yards, 6 TDs
2021 age: 28
Patrick is an even more interesting case. Buried on the target chart after former general manager John Elway invested heavily at wide receiver and tight end over the past few years, Patrick took over as Denver's primary wideout after Courtland Sutton went down and delivered quietly impressive numbers. From Week 4 on, he posted a 41-646-5 line, roughly in line with what guys like Mike Williams, Devante Parker and T.Y. Hilton produced over the same time frame.
Patrick is a restricted free agent this offseason, but the Broncos are in a weird spot. They used a first-round pick in 2019 on athletic tight end Noah Fant and their first- and second-round picks in 2020 on wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Sutton had a more impressive breakout season in 2019 than Patrick did in 2020, and they're both one year away from unrestricted free agency. The Broncos can try to give Patrick a high tender and hope to recoup a second-round pick, but if he comes back, they will be stuck paying a guy who might be their WR4 $3 million before losing him in unrestricted free agency.
Trading Patrick now makes the most sense. The Utah product would need to sign his tender as part of any deal, but it would be logical for him to do that to move to a team that might offer him a shot at a significant target share. It's hard to find many teams more in need of possible receivers than the Jets, who have Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims and little else on their depth chart. Patrick would step into the starting lineup for New York with a chance to impress before unrestricted free agency next season.
Projected: Traded with the 136th pick to the Jets for the 86th pick (via Seattle)
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers
2020 stats: 77 catches, 851 yards, 3 TDs, plus 200 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs
2021 age: 25
Samuel has always hinted at value in a jack-of-all-trades role, but he delivered more frequently in that spot for the Panthers this season. With Christian McCaffrey missing most of the year, Samuel posted career highs in volume, finishing the season with 1,051 yards from scrimmage and 49 first downs. He was also better at bringing in the football as a receiver; his catch rate jumped from 51.4% last season to 79.4%, and while some of that was getting higher-percentage passes from Teddy Bridgewater, his completion percentage over expectation went from minus-4.7% in 2019 to plus-6.6%.
There's a valuable player in here, and the first folks in the NFL to notice that aren't in Carolina anymore. Coach Ron Rivera and general manager Marty Hurney are in Washington, which doesn't have much on the depth chart at wide receiver beyond Terry McLaurin and Cam Sims. Antonio Gibson was really mostly a traditional running back in 2020, so Samuel could step in as the second wideout and the guy who creates havoc moving around the formation in the Washington offense alongside J.D. McKissic.
Projected: Four years, $46 million from Washington
The veterans
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
2020 stats: 76 catches, 978 yards, 9 TDs
2021 age: 31
This is where we're really going to start seeing players get squeezed, just because there are so many options available. Jones ended up with impressive numbers in 2020, in part because there really wasn't anyone else to throw to in Detroit. Over the second half of the season, he was targeted 74 times, which was tied for the seventh most in the league. The former Bengals wideout really turned things on in December, racking up nearly half of his receiving yards (475) and touchdowns (four) over the final five games.
I can't see many teams seeing that five-game stretch and thinking that Jones is going to play that way over the entirety of 2021, let alone beyond. He is a solid blocker, which will help his value; I could see him as a cheaper replacement for Davis as the No. 2 wideout in Tennessee.
Projected: Two years, $13.5 million from the Titans
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
2020 stats: 56 catches, 762 yards, 5 TDs
2021 age: 32
While the hope was that Hilton might return to form with Philip Rivers at quarterback, the Indy wideout didn't get back to the 1,270-yard heights of 2018. Hilton seemed snakebit at times near the end zone, although he developed more of a rapport with Rivers in the second half of the season.
With no idea of who will be under center for the Colts in 2021, we don't have a great sense of what the Indy offense will even look like. Michael Pittman Jr. should play a larger role in his second pro season, and the organization has high hopes for Parris Campbell, who had 71 yards in the opener before going down with what ended up as a season-ending PCL injury in Week 2.
Hilton was born and raised in Miami, and if the Dolphins don't draft a wideout with the No. 3 overall pick, they would still have room in their wideout corps for one more addition, even after signing Smith-Schuster.
Projected: One year, $6 million from the Dolphins
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
2020 stats: 47 catches, 523 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 33
Another wideout who didn't bounce back as planned, Green had a dismal 41.7% catch rate through the first five weeks of the season. He pieced together two good games but seemed to be deemphasized in favor of rookie Tee Higgins and didn't do much after Joe Burrow went down with an injury in November. Green finished the season with six games of three receiving yards or fewer and had zero catches on six targets in what was likely his final game with the organization.
We're now three-plus years removed from Green's last healthy season as a starter (2017), and he hasn't been that game-changing threat since 2018. He'll have to take a massive pay cut from his $18 million franchise-tag figure, and having made more than $108 million as a pro, he might just move on.
I think Green can still play, and I wonder whether there's a surprising fit. The Chiefs are going to move on from Sammy Watkins after his contract expires, and Mecole Hardman isn't a like-for-like replacement. Green could be a relatively low-cost replacement for Watkins and chase a ring before he retires.
Projected: One year, $4 million from the Chiefs
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
2020 stats: 37 catches, 421 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 28
Speaking of Watkins, the former Bills first-rounder struggled through another injury-hit season. Chiefs fans won't soon forget his two huge plays in the playoffs last season, but it's tough to imagine any team counting on him as a 16-game starter, given that he hasn't hit that mark since 2014. Watkins hasn't even been hyper-efficient during his time in Kansas City, averaging 8.1 yards per target in the league's most devastating offense.
There are still going to be Watkins fans around the league, though, and his size and athleticism are still going to attract interest. Bill Belichick has bought low on receivers before, and Watkins would be an upgrade on the outside from the likes of N'Keal Harry if he's healthy. Big if!
Projected: One year, $4.25 million from the Patriots
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 stats: 45 catches, 483 yards, 4 TDs
2021 age: 33
Brown's return to the league has been uneventful; he has made few off-field headlines and mostly has been an ancillary part of the Tampa offense. The former Steelers star has 231 yards in two games against the Falcons and 252 yards across eight games against the rest of the league. He's also living with Tom Brady, and if Chris Godwin leaves, Brown would be the most likely beneficiary in terms of a larger role in the offense. A one-year reunion seems to be on the cards, with Brown getting a raise on his $1.7 million from 2020.
Projected: One year, $5 million from the Buccaneers
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
2020 stats: 54 catches, 409 yards, 1 TD
2021 age: 38
The future Hall of Famer wasn't a net positive for the Cardinals in 2020, as Fitzgerald took home $11.5 million while averaging just 7.6 yards per reception. There's not much mystery here; the Cardinals are going to keep offering Fitzgerald opportunities as long as he wants to play, and he's only going to play for Arizona. Given their need for speed at wide receiver, though, it's best if the Cardinals see their franchise icon walk into the sunset this offseason.
Projected: Retirement
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
2020 stats: 14 catches, 236 yards, 1 TD
2021 age: 34
The three-year, $27.9 million deal the Eagles gave Jackson to return in 2019 turned out to be a disaster, as he racked up 154 yards and two touchdowns in his first game back and just 241 yards across seven games over the ensuing two years. Jackson will be a cap casualty in Philadelphia.
At 34 and with his body breaking down, I'm worried we've seen the last of the explosive Jackson. If he's done, he went out with a bang: His final catch was an 81-yard touchdown in Week 16.
Projected: Retirement
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
2020 stats: 21 catches, 315 yards, 0 TD
2021 age: 35
Another expected cap casualty, Edelman is unlikely to see the $4 million remaining on the final year of his deal with New England. Thankfully, there's a natural place for him to go: If Chris Godwin leaves Tampa Bay, the idea of Edelman flocking south to take over as Tampa's part-time slot receiver almost seems too obvious. The days of Edelman catching 100 passes in a season are over, but he would be a familiar option on third downs and in key situations for Tom Brady.
Projected: One year, $1.5 million from the Buccaneers
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
2020 stats: 6 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD
2021 age: 31
Jeffery returned from offseason foot surgery and didn't show much in an offense that didn't give its receivers the opportunity to impress. The recipient of another disastrous contract likely to be cut short this spring in Philadelphia, the former Bears star can't expect much more than a one-year deal for the minimum. He will get a look somewhere in camp, although there's a chance he's just done at this point.
Projected: One year, $1 million from the Lions
Tyrell Williams, Las Vegas Raiders
2020 stats: Missed season
2021 age: 29
Williams was a promising deep threat with a 1,059-yard season in his first full campaign as a starter, but the Raiders didn't get much for their four-year, $44.5 million investment in free agency in 2019. He struggled through plantar fasciitis in 2019 and then missed all of 2020 with a torn labrum.
New Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn had Williams during his run with the Chargers, and Detroit's depth chart at wideout will be wide open if Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones both leave.
Projected: One year, $2.5 million from the Lions
Golden Tate, New York Giants
2020 stats: 35 catches, 388 yards, 2 TD
2021 age: 33
The Giants paid Tate $22.3 million over the past two years for 1,064 receiving yards, with the former Lions and Seahawks starter also missing time with a calf injury and a four-game PED suspension.
Tate is likely to be a cap casualty in New York, and I like the idea of him possibly returning to Seattle as a third wideout and short-to-midrange factor in the slot for the Seahawks. Pete Carroll regretted losing Tate in 2014; here's his chance to bring the gritty wideout back for one last run.
Projected: One year, $2 million from the Seahawks
Dez Bryant, Baltimore Ravens
2020 stats: 6 catches, 47 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 33
Bryant made an unlikely return to the league after two-plus years out of football and served as a red zone weapon for Lamar Jackson, scoring twice. Bryant's reemergence was an impressive effort and a cool story, but it's tough to find a role for a player who doesn't play special teams and might be only a fourth or fifth wideout at this point of his career.
Projected: Retirement
The intriguing matchup pieces
Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers
2020 stats: 49 catches, 667 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 26
In a typical year, there might be a small bidding war for Bourne, who averaged 9 yards per target in 2020 and has the size and skills to make a difference in the red zone. In this market, though, he's probably going to prefer a one-year deal with a chance to emerge in a friendlier cap situation next year to whatever multiyear deals might be on the table.
I can find a logical landing spot in New York, where the Jets have former 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur as their offensive coordinator.
Projected: One year, $5 million with the Jets
Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 stats: 55 catches, 642 yards, 5 TDs
2021 age: 28
Cole had a strange four-year run with the Jags. After an impressive, efficient rookie year in 2017, the undrafted free agent flopped in 2018 and mostly rode the bench in 2019. Taking over as the primary slot receiver from Dede Westbrook in 2020, Cole didn't stretch the field in the same way he did as a rookie, but he was competent in a regular role. He also started to return punts and took one of the nine he fielded to the house for a 91-yard score.
There could be some untapped potential here with better quarterback play, something that seems to be on the way with presumptive No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.
Projected: One year, $4 million with the Jaguars
Breshad Perriman, New York Jets
2020 stats: 30 catches, 505 yards, 3 TDs
2021 age: 28
I liked the move to sign Perriman on a one-year deal after his hot December of 2019 for the Bucs, but the former Ravens first-rounder struggled to stay healthy and didn't get great quarterback play. The Cardinals desperately need speed in their receiving corps, and Perriman is a way to attack opposing defenses without having to break the bank.
Projected: One year, $3 million with the Cardinals
Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams
2020 stats: 52 catches, 618 yards, 2 TDs
2021 age: 26
The 2017 fourth-round pick was never the primary target in Los Angeles or close to it, but teams are always going to be interested in a 6-foot-3 guy who runs well.
The Bengals don't typically spend much in free agency (with 2020 as a notable exception), but they have snaps opening up with A.J. Green and John Ross leaving, and Reynolds played under Zac Taylor in Los Angeles.
Projected: Two years, $10 million with the Bengals
David Moore, Seattle Seahawks
2020 stats: 35 catches, 417 yards, 6 TDs
2021 age: 26
Another size/speed option for teams that want to try to unlock some upside, Moore was never refined enough to carve out an every-down role in Seattle, but he runs something around a 4.4 40-yard dash and caught 13 touchdowns on just 78 receptions and 134 targets across his four years in Seattle.
I'm interested in him as a third wideout in Carolina, which just hired former Seahawks executive Scott Fitterer to take over as general manager and would have a need at wideout if Samuel leaves. Moore is a different sort of receiver, but he's also capable of winning the sort of one-on-ones offensive coordinator Joe Brady can dial up for his quarterback.
Projected: Two years, $8.5 million with the Panthers
Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns
2020 stats: 37 catches, 599 yards, 4 TDs
2021 age: 27
Higgins averaged a robust 16.2 yards per catch and 11.5 yards per target while filling in for the injured Odell Beckham Jr. in 2020, but he also fumbled three times during the regular season and added a fourth reaching for the end zone in the playoff loss to the Chiefs. Even with the fumbles, Higgins finished third in the league in receiving DVOA, so he can be a valuable weapon in the right role.
I think Higgins comes back to town as the third wideout in a run-heavy Browns attack.
Projected: One year, $3 million with the Browns
Cordarrelle Patterson, Chicago Bears
2020 stats: 21 catches, 132 receiving yards, plus 64 carries, 232 rushing yards and 1 TD
2021 age: 30
Patterson's primary role is as the best kick returner in football, but he also offers value as a running back and an occasional wide receiver. I'm not sure he's ever going to get much more than five touches per game as a hybrid player, but the right coach can unlock something valuable in the former Vikings first-round pick.
I like the idea of Patterson heading to San Francisco, where the 49ers had the league's second-worst kickoff return unit in 2020 and have an offensive mind who can get the most out of those five touches for Patterson in coach Kyle Shanahan.
Projected: Two years, $5.5 million with the 49ers
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills
2020 stats: 30 catches, 282 yards, 5 TDs
2021 age: 26
I thought that it would be a lock that Brian Daboll would try to take McKenzie with him to his new digs as a head coach, if only because the Bills offensive coordinator seemed to find one or two opportunities per week to get McKenzie involved in the offense.
Well, Daboll's not going anywhere, and I think McKenzie will stay. He might only be the fifth wide receiver on the depth chart, but the Bills used McKenzie as a fill-in punt returner and got a touchdown from him there in Week 17. I wonder if they give McKenzie that role on a full-time basis in 2021 as a way to justify keeping him around on a larger salary.
Projected: Three years, $10 million from the Bills
The fliers
I'll do these in short because there are so many of them.
Andre Roberts might lose his return role to McKenzie in Buffalo, but as one of the league's best return men, he'll have a job as the fifth wideout somewhere in 2021. ... Adam Humphries bombed out after signing a four-year, $36 million deal with the Titans, with injuries and a lack of playing time limiting him to just 602 receiving yards over his first two seasons in Tennessee. A likely cap casualty, he will have interest from teams who remember his better days in the slot with Tampa Bay. ... Danny Amendola is an older Humphries and continues to rack up 600-yard seasons at will. He'll get NFL offers until he wants to hang up his cleats. ... Trent Taylor looked like he might grow into the next Amendola after a promising start to his career in San Francisco, but he has 301 receiving yards over the past three years and will have to compete for a roster spot in camp somewhere. ... Dede Westbrook racked up 1,377 yards between 2018 and 2019 before falling down the depth chart and playing just 16 offensive snaps in 2020. He'll be another slot receiver competing for a roster spot. ... The last of the slot guys is Albert Wilson, who was a COVID-19 opt-out in 2020 and likely will be released by the Dolphins. He produced two completions of 20 and 52 yards on trick plays for the Dolphins as a passer and can do that for your team in 2021.
Wilson was once overpaid after leaving the Chiefs as their third wideout for new pastures, but I don't think Demarcus Robinson will enjoy the same sort of deal. A notable performance in the Super Bowl would help the former fourth-round pick attract guaranteed money in free agency. ... Chris Conley also rode the path from the Chiefs to Florida for a modest multiyear deal from the Jags; his size and speed will always tantalize teams, but he has never consistently looked like more than a third or fourth option. ... John Ross has never been healthy for an extended period of time as a pro, but the former No. 9 overall pick has speed to burn and averaged 18.1 yards per catch in 2019. Teams will hope he's the next Perriman. ... Damiere Byrd was miscast as a primary option for the Patriots at times in 2020, but his speed is going to earn him a roster spot until he slows down. A reunion with the Patriots in a less significant role would make sense.
Finishing up: Zach Pascal is a restricted free agent in Indy and likely to return for another season without significant interest from teams willing to give up a draft pick to acquire the Old Dominion product. ... Willie Snead saw his role diminish in each of his three seasons in Baltimore, but the former Saints standout is a guy teams trust to find holes in zones and catch the football. ... Marvin Hall was surprisingly cut by the Lions after averaging 17.1 yards per catch and made his way to Cleveland briefly in December when the Browns lost their wide receivers to the COVID list. This is probably his last shot at sticking in the pros. ... Tavon Austin continues to get opportunities despite failing to top 509 receiving yards at any point as a pro. He started the year with the 49ers and finished it with the Packers, where he returned punts and racked up 20 receiving yards on five targets across six games. Some team will sign him in midseason, talk about getting Austin into space, and then give him eight touches across six weeks before giving up.