Typically, we don't get to see a player take 10 different paths to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady is the exception to that rule, and after Sunday's upset win over the Packers, the Bucs quarterback is on his way to Super Bowl No. 10. No other player has appeared in more than six, so the former Patriots star is on an island unto himself here. And while there are a lot of reasons Brady might find this most recent trip satisfying, something stood out to me: This path to the Super Bowl might have been the toughest of the bunch.
For one, Brady has had to travel to get to this championship game. While the Bucs will be the first team in league history to play a Super Bowl at home, coach Bruce Arians & Co. have had to win three road tilts to make it to the title game. That's not unprecedented -- four other teams have won three road games to make it to the Super Bowl -- but it's something new for Brady. Across his first nine trips to the Super Bowl, he needed to win a total of only three games on the road. Fifteen of the 18 AFC playoff games during those Super Bowl runs were in Foxborough.
This is also the first time Brady has had to win three games to make it to the Super Bowl, as the Patriots had a bye in each of his nine other runs through the playoffs. You might snicker and joke that Taylor Heinicke and the 7-9 Washington Football Team weren't much competition, but the Bucs still had a better chance of losing to Washington than a typical Pats team did of losing on the bye.
The quarterbacks Brady had to face were what really stood out to me. Leave Heinicke aside and consider who will be standing across from Brady in two weeks, and you're looking at a pretty devastating group of opponents. That got me thinking and researching.
I went back through Brady's 10 Super Bowl seasons and where this run to a possible Super Bowl victory might stand in terms of difficulty. I'll start with the easiest path, work my way to the toughest, and see where it might compare to some of the most difficult Super Bowl paths ever:
10. 2017 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 32-16 (.667)
Quarterbacks faced: Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Nick Foles
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 41-33
Yes, Brady's easiest path to a Super Bowl didn't produce a victory, in part because the AFC South did the dirty work. The Pats lost 42-27 to the Chiefs in the opener, but Kansas City was upset in the wild-card round by Tennessee. The only other team with more than 10 wins in the AFC was the 13-3 Steelers, but they lost in a wild game against the Jaguars in the divisional round. The three quarterbacks the Patriots faced across this run didn't strike fear in any defense.
And yet, the Patriots did not win the big one. They probably were lucky to get to the AFC Championship Game, given that Myles Jack's fumble return for a touchdown that would have given the Jags a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter was whistled dead. The Pats came back to win. Despite a 505-yard game from Brady in Super Bowl LII, they weren't able to do the same there.
This Pats team finished the season 31st in defensive DVOA, and when Foles and the Eagles ripped them apart in Minneapolis, it showed. Coordinator Matt Patricia got a head-coaching job after this season anyway.
9. 2011 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 29-19 (.604)
Quarterbacks faced: Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning
Road Games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 21-17
This is basically a carbon copy of the 2017 path. A 12-4 Steelers team was pushed aside in the wild-card round in one of the great upsets of the past decade by the 8-8 Broncos, in part because Ben Roethlisberger was playing on a bad ankle. The Giants team that beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl was 9-7 and outscored by six points during the regular season; New York made it to Indy only because Kyle Williams muffed two punts in the NFC Championship Game for the 49ers.
And yet, the Patriots struggled. They nearly lost in the AFC Championship Game to the Ravens, only for Lee Evans to drop a touchdown pass with 27 seconds left before Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal attempt that would have pushed the game into overtime. With Rob Gronkowski battling his own ankle injury in the Super Bowl, Brady took a safety in the first quarter and failed to turn the vaunted double-score just before and after halftime into a victory for the first and only time in his career. That Pats team ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, so as was the case in 2017, Brady didn't get much help.
8. 2007 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 32-16 (.667)
Quarterbacks faced: David Garrard, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Loss, 17-14
The three easiest paths to the Super Bowl for Brady all came in years when the Patriots ended up losing the championship game. This was a year in which the AFC seemed to be setting up for a Patriots-Colts conference title contest, but Indy was upset as 11-point favorites at San Diego in the divisional round. In the process, Rivers tore his ACL. He somehow played through the injury, but LaDainian Tomlinson injured his knee on the opening drive and didn't return, while Antonio Gates spent the entire game playing through a dislocated toe. Brady threw three interceptions in a dismal game by his standards, but the Chargers were overmatched with their stars compromised.
You know what happened in Super Bowl XLII. The Giants were able to get relentless pressure on Brady with their front four, a possibly injured Randy Moss had a quiet game, and Manning did just enough to win the game for the Giants in the fourth. The defensive coordinator for the Giants that day, as you might remember, was Steve Spagnuolo. Thirteen years later, Spagnuolo will be formulating a game plan to beat Brady as the defensive coordinator of the Chiefs.
7. 2016 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 31-17 (.646)
Quarterbacks faced: Brock Osweiler, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 34-28
The Pats didn't lose this Super Bowl, but they famously came close before coming back from a 28-3 deficit. Ryan won league MVP that season and was on fire under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan; the 135.3 passer rating Ryan posted that postseason is the third best in league history for a quarterback with at least 50 attempts. The Falcons quarterback might not end up in the Hall of Fame, but he was playing at that sort of level in 2016.
On the other hand, Osweiler is the worst quarterback Brady has faced in a Super Bowl run outside of Tebow and arguably Heinicke. Osweiler threw three picks and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt in a 34-16 blowout to finish his brief career with the Texans. The Pats beat the Steelers in a game in which Roethlisberger was healthy, but Le'Veon Bell went down injured in the first quarter and only briefly returned.
6. 2014 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 33-15 (.688)
Quarterbacks faced: Joe Flacco, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 28-24
Despite it seeming like Brady and Peyton Manning ended up playing in the postseason every year, this was another season in which their inevitable matchup didn't happen. Manning threw 39 touchdown passes for a 12-4 Broncos team, only for Denver to lose at home to the Colts in the divisional round. The Patriots were seven-point favorites over the Ravens and Colts in Foxborough, although it took a controversial (albeit legal) unbalanced line tactic to throw off the Ravens and launch a comeback from 14 down in the second half of the divisional round.
The Seahawks were tougher competition in the Super Bowl, which memorably came down to Malcolm Butler's interception on the goal line. This was when the Seahawks were still a run-first team, as Wilson threw only 21 passes during the Super Bowl. Even so, given that the Pats were facing a defense full of stars, this was one of their tougher Super Bowl challenges. New England was favored in seven of its nine Super Bowls with Brady; it was a 14-point underdog against the Rams and a pick 'em here.
5. 2001 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 37-11 (.771)
Quarterbacks faced: Rich Gannon, Kordell Stewart, Kurt Warner
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 20-17
Speaking of that Rams game, here are the 2001 Patriots. There's a big gap between the bottom five and the five tougher paths on this list. This isn't necessarily the scariest list of quarterbacks, but the Patriots had to win on the road against a 13-3 Steelers team and then face a Rams offense whose numbers look more like a dominant 2020 offense than something that belonged in 2001. Those Rams scored 31.4 points per game, converted 50% of their third downs and scored touchdowns nearly 64% of the time in the red zone, leading the league in each category.
Of course, Brady was in just his second pro season and contributed less to this run than the other nine. His offense scored 16 points against the Raiders and 13 against the Rams, with Ty Law chipping in a pick-six against Warner. The Pats scored two special-teams touchdowns against the Steelers in a game in which Brady suffered a leg injury in the first half and did not return. At the end, though, Brady played a key role. With John Madden urging the Patriots to kneel and take the game to overtime, Belichick trusted his quarterback and let Brady lead a nine-play, 53-yard drive to get Adam Vinatieri in position for a 48-yard field goal.
4. 2018 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 37-11 (.771)
Quarterbacks faced: Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 13-3
The first meeting between Mahomes and Brady in the playoffs was a classic. With the Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium, the Patriots got up 14-0 early and led 17-7 at the start of the fourth quarter before Mahomes settled down and got going. The lead changed four times in the final stanza. The Chiefs took control with 2:03 left and intercepted Brady with 1:01 to go, only for Dee Ford to be flagged for offside. Rex Burkhead scored with 39 seconds left, only for Mahomes to hit two passes and get the Chiefs into field goal range. Harrison Butker's kick sent the game into overtime, but Brady led a 13-play drive in overtime to score a touchdown without giving Mahomes the ball back.
Goff was more highly regarded two years ago than he is now, but the Patriots stifled the opposing passer and the rest of Sean McVay's offense. The Patriots ran the same pass concept three times in a row to set up their only touchdown of the game. Every one of the Super Bowl runs before this one had an obvious weak point (or multiple weak points) at quarterback, but this was a group with three above-average (or better) signal-callers.
3. 2003 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 35-13 (.729)
Quarterbacks faced: Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme
Road games: 0
Super Bowl result: Win, 32-29
Brady was a bigger part of the offense in his second Super Bowl run, but the defense really carried the team through the AFC playoffs. The Pats beat McNair's Titans 17-14 and then intercepted Peyton Manning four times in a brutal AFC Championship Game. Belichick's Patriots won 24-14, which led to Bill Polian's Colts complaining to the league about the clutching and grabbing done by New England's defensive backs. The league responded by making illegal contact a point of emphasis, which opened up the passing game for Brady in the years to come. Oops.
Delhomme might stick out on this list, but the Panthers were a run-heavy team that year, with Delhomme mostly hitting shots off of play-action. That held up in the Super Bowl, as he completed just 48.5% of his passes but averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw for three touchdowns. The Pats needed Brady in the Super Bowl, and he responded with what was his best playoff game up to that point, throwing for 354 yards and three touchdowns before leading another game-winning drive to set up Vinatieri.
2. 2004 Patriots
Opponents' combined record: 40-8 (.833)
Quarterbacks faced: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb
Road games: 1
Super Bowl result: Win, 24-21
This could have been No. 1; it's comfortably the most difficult slate Brady had to run through with the Patriots. Their divisional round game was against a 12-4 Colts team that scored nearly 33 points per contest; Belichick's defense held them to three points. Despite going 14-2 in the regular season, the Patriots were the second seed in the AFC and had to travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers, who had broken their 21-game winning streak earlier in the season and gone 15-1 with a rookie Roethlisberger. The defense forced four takeaways, scored once and set up several short fields for the offense in a 41-27 rout.
The Eagles team the Patriots faced in the Super Bowl was the best Philly team of the Andy Reid era, a 13-3 juggernaut that comfortably ran through the NFC playoffs. The final score was closer than the game, given that the Eagles scored a touchdown with 1:55 to go. McNabb is not a Hall of Famer, but the other two opposing quarterbacks are, and McNabb was an above-average starter for a long time. This is a pretty rough slate of opposing quarterbacks.
1. 2020 Buccaneers
Opponents' combined record: 46-18 (.719)
Quarterbacks faced: Taylor Heinicke, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: ???
That slate of quarterbacks, however, doesn't compare to what Brady has faced and will face this season. Put Heinicke and Washington aside and Brady will have faced three no-doubt Hall of Famers. (Mahomes could retire tomorrow and get in.) Brees was a shell of his usual self in the Superdome, but the rookie version of Roethlisberger whom Brady faced in 2004 wasn't at his peak, either. All three of the Bucs' playoff games were also on the road, matching Brady's combined total from his first nine Super Bowl runs.
Washington drags down that combined record, too; throw it out (since the Pats didn't play a wild-card round game in their nine trips with Brady) and the three teams the Bucs will have to beat to win a Super Bowl posted a combined record of 39-9, good for an .813 win percentage. It's an incredible accomplishment for the Bucs to get as far as they have, even if they come up short at home against the Chiefs in two weeks.
Is the Bucs' run the toughest slate ever?
Brady might be facing the toughest test of his postseason powers ever, but I don't think it would qualify as the most difficult path we've ever seen. Depending on which measure we use, Tampa Bay's 2020 playoff schedule would rank around 10th for the most difficult postseason schedule. (This only includes teams who needed to win four games to win a Super Bowl, because it's almost always going to be tougher than any three-game schedule.)
In the end, with apologies to the 1985 Patriots and 1999 Titans, there are two teams whose playoff schedules stand out as the most difficult since the merger. Like this year's Bucs, they needed to win three road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And, in what will be exciting news for Tampa Bay fans, both of those teams were sharpened by their experiences and won in the Super Bowl. Here are the top two and how they got there:
2005 Steelers
Opponents' combined record: 51-13 (.797)
Quarterbacks faced: Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna, Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer, Matt Hasselbeck
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: Win, 21-10
I put Palmer and Kitna together on that ledger because of what happened in the wild-card round. Palmer found Chris Henry for a 66-yard completion on his first pass attempt of the game, only to be hit by Kimo von Oelhoffen and suffer a multi-ligament knee injury. Kitna played the rest of the way in a 31-17 defeat.
The next week, Bill Cowher's defense upset the Colts as 8.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis, although it wasn't without drama. Jerome Bettis fumbled on the 2-yard line as the Steelers were trying to seal the game with 1:20 to go, and Roethlisberger had to make a game-saving tackle on the return. Manning drove the Colts into field goal range, but Mike Vanderjagt -- who had gone 23-of-25 that season -- missed a 46-yard field goal that would have forced overtime.
Plummer and Hasselbeck weren't on Manning's level, but both the Broncos and Seahawks sported fearsome rushing attacks. The Pittsburgh defense forced four turnovers from Plummer in a 34-17 rout at Mile High, a place where Denver had previously gone 12-2 in the postseason. Shaun Alexander ran the ball 20 times for 95 yards in the Super Bowl, and Roethlisberger posted a passer rating of 22.6, but the Steelers forced the Seahawks to go 5-of-17 on third down and got a 75-yard touchdown run from Willie Parker before Antwaan Randle El threw a touchdown pass to Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward. This wasn't the prettiest Super Bowl run, but the Steelers got the job done.
2007 Giants
Opponents' combined record: 51-13 (.797)
Quarterbacks faced: Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Tom Brady
Road games: 3
Super Bowl result: Win, 17-14
The Giants faced two Hall of Famers during their run, and while Favre was 38, he had thrown for 4,155 yards that season. (Rodgers was on the bench.) The 2007 version of Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns, and Garcia made it to the Pro Bowl. Tom Coughlin's team beat two 13-3 teams (the Cowboys and the Packers) and the 16-0 Patriots to win a Super Bowl, winning three road games along the way. They won in the heat of Tampa and in sub-zero temperatures at Lambeau.
They did it by looking like a totally different team from the one that limped through the regular season. They posted a turnover differential of minus-9 during the regular season and somehow bumped that up to plus-5 across a four-game playoff run against the league's toughest competition. They held the Cowboys, the best offense in the NFC, to 17 points on nine possessions. Three weeks later, the same Patriots who dropped 38 on the Giants in Week 17 scored 14 points on nine drives. It took a miraculous catch and some well-timed takeaways, but the Giants ran off an improbable four-game winning streak and won the Super Bowl.
The 2007 Giants were not always -- or even often -- a great team. They lost 41-17 to a Vikings team with Tarvaris Jackson starting at quarterback in a game where Eli Manning threw three pick-sixes. They lost to Washington in a game where opposing starter Todd Collins went 8-of-25. They nearly lost to a 1-15 Dolphins team quarterbacked by Cleo Lemon in a game where Manning was 8-of-22 for 59 yards. Things weren't often pretty.
The Bucs can take heart in that. They've been great over the past few weeks, but these are the same Buccaneers that lost to the Bears and Nick Foles in Week 5. They needed a fourth-quarter comeback and a failed two-pointer to beat the Giants and a huge second-half comeback to beat the Chargers. History has a way of forgetting about those rough edges and disappointing performances. Tampa ended the regular season playing great football against bad competition, but after their win over Heinicke and Washington, they've beaten two of the best teams in football. They're now one win away from immortality, and if Brady does get his seventh ring, nobody will be able to say that the Buccaneers have coasted to a title.