Former No. 1 overall draft picks Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are changing teams. The Detroit Lions are trading Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for Goff, a third-round pick in 2021, a first-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Saturday night. The deal can't become official until the first day of the new league year on March 17.
Stafford, the top selection in the 2009 NFL draft, threw for 45,109 yards and 282 touchdowns over 12 seasons in Detroit. Goff, the first pick in the 2016 draft, made the Pro Bowl in 2017 and 2018 and threw for 18,171 yards and 107 touchdowns in his five seasons with the Rams. Goff was L.A.'s last first-round pick, and the franchise has already traded away its first-rounders until 2024.
Stafford was not expected to return to Detroit, while Goff's future was "a beautiful mystery," according to Rams general manager Les Snead. New Lions GM Brad Holmes was hired earlier this month from the Rams, for whom he was the director of college scouting, and he hired Dan Campbell as Detroit's new coach on Jan. 20.
We asked our panel of ESPN NFL experts to weigh in on the Rams-Lions trade, whether Stafford makes L.A. a legitimate Super Bowl contender and how Detroit could fare in 2021:
What was your first reaction to the trade?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Stafford is a prime fit for Rams coach Sean McVay's system. And with his arm talent, I expect L.A. to attack more vertically down the field next season.
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: The Rams' disgust for draft capital once seemed (and perhaps still is) reckless, but it's hard to question their strategy considering their success during the McVay era (nine-plus wins in all four seasons). McVay has already managed to pump out high-end offensive production, and now he has upgraded at quarterback. It is a bold move but certainly solidifies the Rams as a contender in the NFC.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: It was shocking that the Rams dumped Goff's contract. Didn't think they could do it. Good on them for maximizing their championship window. Detroit gets good capital for a 2022-23 rebuild. Stafford gets what he wants -- McVay's offense.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: That the Rams were really desperate to get rid of Goff, which is what we were hearing around the middle of the week. Also, that Stafford is going to have a monster year in McVay's offense.
Eric Karabell, fantasy writer: Wait, how many draft picks and what rounds? Yeah, the Rams upgraded at quarterback and clearly were willing to pay to do so -- but wow. Good work, Lions, as well.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: I can't believe the Lions want Goff to be their quarterback, rebuild or otherwise. I'm waiting on another shoe to drop.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Nice haul for the Lions. Because they're in a multiyear rebuilding process, I don't mind the delay on the first-round picks. They have to take on Goff's contract, sure, but they were compensated for it.
Does this deal make the Rams the favorites in the NFC West in 2021?
Bowen: Yes -- for now. With Stafford upgrading the Rams' passing game -- paired with one of the top defenses in the league -- they have the look of a potential NFC West champ. But I still want to see what the San Francisco 49ers do this offseason at the quarterback position before making a pick here.
Clay: I'll lean yes, but this is hard to answer simply because the division is so loaded. The Rams have Stafford and an elite defense, the Seattle Seahawks have Russell Wilson, the Arizona Cardinals have Kyler Murray and a healthy 49ers team will be right back in the mix.
Fowler: No. The 49ers will regain form (easy to forget Jimmy Garoppolo is 24-9 as San Francisco's starter) and the Seahawks will be back. Murray isn't going anywhere in Arizona. Expect a tight three-to-four-team race once again.
Graziano: I'm going to hold off on this kind of prediction until I see who the 49ers get for a quarterback. The NFC West is a loaded division, and this only makes it tougher.
Karabell: It doesn't hurt, but we should expect that the Seahawks and Cardinals -- and really, the 49ers, as well -- realize what they need and have months to get it. If the Niners had acquired Stafford, they might be favorites; perhaps they do better.
Seifert: Not yet. What will the 49ers do? Will they get Deshaun Watson? Did we forget Russell Wilson still lives in this division?
Walder: I think yes, barring a Watson-to-the-49ers trade. The Rams were already a team with a shot at the Super Bowl before a significant upgrade at the game's most important position. I'm certainly intrigued by the upside of a McVay-Stafford tandem.
What's the Rams' biggest weakness now, and how could they improve this offseason?
Bowen: Upgrade the interior of the offensive line, which is crucial in a system that is driven by the zone run game.
Clay: A pair of superstars aside, the Rams' defense didn't jump off the page entering last season. And yet defensive coordinator Brandon Staley was able to lead the unit to an elite campaign. With Staley gone to take over the Los Angeles Chargers, with Leonard Floyd, Troy Hill and John Johnson on expiring contracts and with question marks at linebacker and edge, the question is: Can the defense do it again?
Fowler: Depth. The roster is star-heavy and will likely lose Floyd and Johnson to free agency. The easiest way to combat that is with draft capital -- which L.A. doesn't really have, with no first-round picks until 2024.
Graziano: The Rams' biggest weakness is that they don't have another first-round pick until 2024, at the earliest. This is a perpetual win-now team that needs to make sure it builds and maintains a healthy offensive line in front of Stafford to maximize its window.
Karabell: The lines could use tweaking and depth, but without a first-round pick, they're going to be dependent on attracting veterans for help.
Seifert: That at some point they will lose flexibility to add more help to their roster. These trades take a toll.
Walder: Edge rusher. Floyd is a free agent -- I don't think he was as good as his 10.5 sacks suggested anyway -- and so that stands out as a weakness. But with a major caveat: The Rams have the best pass-rushing defensive tackle in the game, so it's not that big a problem. How can they improve? Better hit on that second-round pick!
Predict the Lions' record in 2021:
Bowen: 5-11. Campbell's six-year deal and the move to trade away Stafford tell us the Lions are in a rebuilding mode.
Clay: 5-11. Detroit had a better team on paper than it showed this season, but the rebuild is in full effect after the recent coaching overhaul and departure of Stafford.
Fowler: 7-9. Goff is capable. This isn't a massive drop at quarterback. And expect an energy spike in Detroit under Campbell. The front office will target more speed and a better pass rush on defense this offseason.
Graziano: 6-10. I have no idea why. We are still almost two months from free agency and three months from the draft, so there's no way to know what their roster, or anyone else's, will look like. But the Lions are usually not great, so I'll go with 6-10.
Karabell: 3-13. They can draft their future quarterback with the No. 7 overall pick in April and start looking to 2022 and beyond.
Seifert: 2-14. Goff or not, they are in a complete rebuild and are strong candidates for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft.
Walder: 3-13, but at least they'll know what they are going into the year. It's not good to be a losing team, but this way they can plan their offseason with the idea of setting themselves up to contend in 2022 and beyond -- starting with Saturday's move.