The 2021 NFL free-agency class will hit the market amid an unprecedented environment. For only the second time in its history, the league is expected to lower its salary-cap number from the previous season because of lost revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After seven consecutive years of $10 million increases, teams will have less space to re-sign their own players -- and those who make it to the open market will find less interest in precedent-setting new contracts.
What won't change, however, is the level to which teams can remake their short-term fortunes with prudent and targeted decisions. So as much of the NFL world focuses on the conclusion of the playoffs, now is a great time to start looking at the potential of this class. Our annual January ranking of the 50 best free agents comes with the usual caveat: Many of these players will either return to their incumbent teams or receive a movement-prohibiting tag long before the market opens.
This list is also weighted to reflect the approach we often see in free agency. Teams always will prefer younger players coming off their rookie contracts. Running backs usually are devalued, because of their shorter career peaks and the continuing shift toward the passing game. Potential pass-rushers are always sought, regardless of their past productivity, and no one cares about the age of left tackles.
One recent shift in league thinking is reflected here, too: Players coming off serious injuries aren't necessarily fated to one-year "prove it" deals. There is enough recent history to suggest that teams are better at anticipating full recoveries and will sometimes offer competitive deals. We'll update this list later this spring in anticipation of the scheduled March 17 market opening, but for now, here are the top 50 free agents for this offseason.
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QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
Edge | DT | LB | CB | S
1. Dak Prescott, QB
2020 team: Dallas Cowboys | Age entering 2021 season: 28
To this point, there has been no reason to project long-term health implications from Prescott's season-ending ankle injury. Assuming that remains the case, Prescott remains what every quarterback-needy team dreams of: a signal-caller who is highly productive, under 30 years old and universally respected as a leader. And if anything, he elevated those credentials in five games this season, averaging a career-high 371 passing yards per game. He also produced a Total QBR of 78.4, which would have been among the top five in the league if he had enough plays to qualify. But through another franchise tag or via a longer-term deal, it's difficult to imagine the Cowboys letting him depart.
2. Trent Williams, OT
2020 team: San Francisco 49ers | Age entering 2021 season: 33
Williams revived his career in 2020 after finally engineering a trade away from Washington. He started 14 games for the 49ers and reminded most observers why he has been considered one of the game's top left tackles. His age and injury history will be a factor, and in the end, the 49ers might decide he is too valuable to let hit the market.
3. Leonard Williams, Edge/DT
2020 team: New York Giants | Age entering 2021 season: 27
The past year has been awfully good for Williams, who was traded to the Giants in 2019 and found a home in new coach Joe Judge's defense. His 11.5 sacks were a career high and more than he had amassed in the previous three seasons combined. And now Williams has enormous leverage over the Giants, who decided not to sign him to an extension before finalizing the trade. He spent 2020 as their franchised player.
4. Brandon Scherff, G
2020 team: Washington Football Team | Age entering 2021 season: 29
After signing his franchise tag, Scherff went on to start 13 games in 2020 and earn his fourth Pro Bowl honor. Given the difficulty of developing high-end offensive linemen, it's hard to believe that Washington wants to let him go. But as he approaches 29, and having missed at least two games in each of the past four seasons, the negotiation could be complex. Regardless, there would be multiple suitors if and when he would become available.
5. Hunter Henry, TE
2020 team: Los Angeles Chargers | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Henry caught a career-high 60 passes under the Chargers' franchise tag in 2020, eighth most among NFL tight ends. In two years since returning from a torn ACL, Henry has proved to be a productive player whose potential for growth is unclear. Could he approach the productivity of a Travis Kelce or Darren Waller if he were in a system that allowed for it? Or is he a second-tier receiving tight end? In either event, many teams would cherish the mismatches he would bring to their offenses.
6. Yannick Ngakoue, Edge
2020 team: Baltimore Ravens | Age entering 2021 season: 26
An intense desire to leave Jacksonville last summer led Ngakoue to Minnesota and finally Baltimore during the course of the season. He finished the season with eight sacks, the fourth of his five seasons to have finished below double-digits in that category. But young and even modestly effective edge rushers are always among the most sought-after free agents, and Ngakoue will have plenty of suitors.
7. Bud Dupree, Edge
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Since the start of the 2019 season, Dupree has more sacks (19.5) than all but seven players in the NFL -- and that's despite missing the final five games of this season because of a torn ACL. A significant injury in a contract year isn't ideal, but it's also not the market buster that it once was. Assuming there are no reported complications, a pass-rusher like Dupree is going to find significant interest on the open market.
8. Kenny Golladay, WR
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Golladay's contract year was a bust, as injuries forced him to miss 11 games. When healthy, however, Golladay showed that he can be a big-time downfield No. 1 receiver. He combined for 17 touchdown receptions in the 2018 and 2019 seasons, tied for the NFL's seventh most over that span.
9. Justin Simmons, S
2020 team: Denver Broncos | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Simmons intercepted a career-high five passes as the Broncos' franchise player in 2020. His 16 interceptions since the start of the 2016 season are tied for the fifth most in the NFL over that period. And Pro Football Focus credited him with 28 defensive stops in each of the past two seasons, meaning he is a factor both as a playmaker and as defender near the line of scrimmage.
10. Allen Robinson II, WR
2020 team: Chicago Bears | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Since the start of the 2019 season, Robinson has caught 200 passes -- more than all but three NFL pass-catchers. And he did it while playing in one of the NFL's worst passing offenses over that period; the Bears ranked No. 27 in team QBR and No. 26 in yards, despite ranking No. 11 in attempts. Imagine what Robinson could have done, or could do, with better quarterback play. Plenty of teams in the market for a receiver will be doing just that in the coming months.
11. Jonnu Smith, TE
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Smith has increased his receptions, yardage and touchdown totals in each of his four seasons with the Titans. He caught eight scoring passes in 2020, tied for fourth most by a tight end, as the Titans finally began focusing on him in the red zone. Smith seems like the kind of mismatch nightmare that teams salivate over in free agency.
12. Trey Hendrickson, Edge
2020 team: New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2021 season: 26
A young pass-rusher who put up 13.5 sacks in his first season as a starter, Hendrickson caught many eyes this year. With many of their top defensive players approaching or exceeding 30, it would seem wise for the Saints to find a way to retain him. But their annual cap crunch will make that a challenge.
13. Chris Godwin, WR
2020 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Age entering 2021 season: 25
Godwin's numbers dropped a bit in 2020 as he played through multiple injuries and adjusted to a new quarterback. But he has plenty of productive tape from the past three years. In fact, only eight players have caught more touchdown passes than Godwin (23) since the start of the 2018 season.
14. Aaron Jones, RB
2020 team: Green Bay Packers | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Of the heralded 2017 draft class of running backs, only Dalvin Cook has more career rushing yards (3,661) than Jones (3,364). Only Alvin Kamara has more rushing touchdowns (43 vs. 37). But unlike fellow class members Kamara, Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon and Tarik Cohen, Jones has not signed a contract extension. The looming expiration of his rookie deal will test the annual running back conundrum. How much value would the Packers lose if they let him leave and turn over the position to 2020 draft choice AJ Dillon? And how much of a market would there be for a back like Jones with 782 touches worth of wear on his body?
15. Shaquil Barrett, Edge
2020 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Age entering 2021 season: 28
No one expected Barrett to match his wild 2019 production of 19.5 sacks, but his eight-sack season in 2020 made clear he remains a pass-rushing obstacle who must be accounted for. After a year on the Buccaneers' franchise tag, it will be interesting to see if he will get the opportunity to market himself.
16. Taylor Moton, OT
2020 team: Carolina Panthers | Age entering 2021 season: 27
He hasn't made a Pro Bowl or gained much notoriety outside of Carolina, but in three years as a starter, Moton has developed into more than a serviceable starting tackle. The Panthers might need to apply the franchise tag to ensure his return.
17. Corey Linsley, C
2020 team: Green Bay Packers | Age entering 2021 season: 30
Linsley earned first-team All-Pro honors in his seventh season and would be a worthy target for any team hoping to elevate its offensive line. With Linsley on the roster in 2017, the Packers allowed JC Tretter to leave as a free agent. But there is no obvious replacement on the roster this go around.
18. Corey Davis, WR
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Davis was eclipsed by A.J. Brown as the Titans' No. 1 receiver, and in four years he has caught a total of 11 touchdown passes while never producing a 1,000-yard season. The Titans declined his fifth-year option, and he might be best served with a change of scenery. As long as they're competent in the passing game, big receivers will always find interest.
19. Lavonte David, LB
2020 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Age entering 2021 season: 31
On the one hand, it's hard to imagine a 31-year-old linebacker generating a ton of interest in free agency, especially if his own team has decided against re-signing him. But the fact of the matter is that he is still playing a pretty high level, especially in pass defense. He might have to go year to year from a contract perspective, but he should certainly be considered a high-level starter for 2021.
20. Joe Thuney, G
2020 team: New England Patriots | Age entering 2021 season: 28
The Patriots used the franchise tag on Thuney for 2020 and got another 16-start season. He hasn't missed a start since the Patriots made him a third-round draft pick in 2016 and would be among the most reliable free agents available if he hits the market. This poignant photo, taken as he sat at midfield after the final game of the 2020 season, suggests he knows he is probably moving on from New England.
21. Alejandro Villanueva, OT
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 32
Even if his best days are behind him, Villanueva plays a position that is very difficult to replace in free agency. Teams consider it a win to find a serviceable left tackle in free agency, and he certainly qualifies in that regard.
22. A.J. Green, WR
2020 team: Cincinnati Bengals | Age entering 2021 season: 33
The good news is that Green, a seven-time Pro Bowler, played in all 16 games this season after missing all of 2019 and seven games in 2018. The bad news is that he had the least productive year of his career, with 47 receptions for 523 yards and two touchdowns. Part of that can be attributed to the Bengals' offensive scheme, which required him to share targets with rookie Tee Higgins, as well as their quarterback issues after Joe Burrow was lost due to injuries. But those numbers -- and Green's age -- will make for a complicated set of negotiations with whomever pursues him this spring.
23. Matt Milano, LB
2020 team: Buffalo Bills | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Not too many people outside of Buffalo have heard of Milano, a fifth-round draft pick in 2017. But people who watch the Bills closely know he has developed into a reliable three-down linebacker who can be counted on to play the run, perform well in pass coverage and even rush the passer on occasion. He would have a sneaky active market.
24. Haason Reddick, Edge
2020 team: Arizona Cardinals | Age entering 2021 season: 26
What a career turnaround Reddick managed in 2020. A first-round pick in 2016 as an inside linebacker, Reddick had his fifth-year option declined for 2020. In a contract year, he moved to outside linebacker and then burst into the national consciousness with five sacks in a Week 14 win over the Giants. In total, he racked up 7.5 sacks in the Cardinals' final four regular-season games. There is plenty of evaluation still needed, but at the very least, Reddick is rolling off a big contract season.
25. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 24
There's no other way to put it: Smith-Schuster had a confounding contract year. Playing in the Steelers' short passing game, he caught 97 passes -- ninth most in the NFL -- but averaged only 8.6 yards per catch. That was the third lowest among the wide receivers who caught at least 50 passes in 2020. The performance isn't likely to change teams' perceptions of his potential as a downfield receiver, but it could prompt at least a closer look.
26. Desmond King II, CB
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
King started eight combined games last season for the Chargers and Titans, where he was traded at midseason. At times in his career, he has been an exceptional slot cornerback. The midseason trade suggests that acclaim was not universally held.
27. Curtis Samuel, WR
2020 team: Carolina Panthers | Age entering 2021 season: 25
Samuel set career highs for receptions (77) and yards (851) in 2020, while also emerging as an intriguing multi-positional player who got 41 carries out of various formations. He rushed for 200 yards and two touchdowns, while converting 10 first downs, and would be closely scrutinized by teams with open-minded schemes. Among players classified as wide receivers, only the Bears' Cordarrelle Patterson finished with more rushing yards than Samuel.
28. Shaquill Griffin, CB
2020 team: Seattle Seahawks | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Griffin intercepted a career-high three passes in 2020, his fourth season as a starter in Seattle. Regardless of his interception numbers, though, he has consistently been around the ball. ESPN Stats & Information has credited him with 39 pass breakups -- passes that he either defended, tipped or batted down. That tied him for the 14th most in the NFL over the past four seasons.
29. Marcus Williams, S
2020 team: New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2021 season: 24
Unfortunately known for his missed tackle in the 2017 Minneapolis Miracle, Williams developed into a reliable playmaker in the back end of the Saints' defense. He has intercepted 13 passes in his four seasons, better than all but seven defenders whose primary position was safety over that span.
30. Will Fuller V, WR
2020 team: Houston Texans | Age entering 2021 season: 27
There haven't been many more confounding players than Fuller over the past five years. He has never played a 16-game season and has missed 27 games over that span because of injuries and a suspension. When on the field, however, Fuller has been one of the NFL's top deep threats. His average of 9.3 yards gained per target ranks among the top 10 in the NFL among qualified receivers over the past five seasons. Teams will have to decide how to balance his availability issues with his obvious production advantages.
31. Patrick Peterson, CB
2020 team: Arizona Cardinals | Age entering 2021 season: 31
You'll find little disagreement that Peterson has played better in his career than he did in 2020. Pro Football Focus calculated that quarterbacks had a 96.2 passer rating when throwing in his direction. But there are rarely even competent cornerbacks available on the free-agent market. If the Cardinals or Peterson decide to move on, there would be interest by default.
32. John Johnson III, S
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 25
Johnson has had an up-and-down career since the Rams made him a third-round draft pick in 2017, but he played a big role in the Rams' defensive resurgence in 2020 and appears to have helped himself in a contract year. He missed 10 games in 2019 because of injuries but otherwise has appeared in all 16 games for each of the other three seasons of his career.
33. Marcus Maye, S
2020 team: New York Jets | Age entering 2021 season: 28
A four-year starter, Maye set career highs with 11 passes defended and two forced fumbles, to go along with two interceptions, in 2020. He has shown a level of position versatility that the Jets utilize well; Pro Football Focus has charted Maye as a traditional free safety, as a box safety and in the slot corner position during various points of his career.
34. Matthew Judon, Edge
2020 team: Baltimore Ravens | Age entering 2021 season: 29
Judon managed six sacks, his lowest output since 2016, after the Ravens applied their franchise tag on him for 2020. A second franchise tag seems unlikely. Pass-rushers are always of interest on the open market, but with the expected salary-cap decrease, it's unclear how much money will be available to the second tier of those available.
35. Leonard Floyd, Edge
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Floyd's past 12 months show just how much a change of scenery via free agency can affect a career. The Bears gave up on him after the 2019 season, and on a one-year contract with the Rams, Floyd recorded a career-high 10.5 sacks. It helps to be playing on a defensive line that includes Aaron Donald, but Floyd certainly earned some future money -- from someone -- in his 2020 campaign.
36. Anthony Harris, S
2020 team: Minnesota Vikings | Age entering 2021 season: 29
The Vikings made Harris a surprise target of their franchise tag after a six-interception season in 2019. Like the rest of the Vikings' defense, Harris did not match his previous year's performance and finished without a single interception. But he remains a smart and savvy defensive back with experience in a successful defense.
37. Larry Ogunjobi, DT
2020 team: Cleveland Browns | Age entering 2021 season: 27
A three-year starter, Ogunjobi has been a force at times in the interior line. He might be better suited to playing the 3-technique in a 4-3 defense, rather than the nose tackle, but he has plenty of tape doing both.
38. Romeo Okwara, Edge
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 26
A waiver claim in 2018, Okwara produced an eye-opening season in 2020 for a team that fell totally from the national radar. He recorded 10 sacks as a part-time starter. Generally speaking, 26-year-old players with a 10-sack season tend to elicit significant interest. It wasn't a statistical fluke, either. He recorded 7.5 sacks in 2018.
39. Chidobe Awuzie, CB
2020 team: Dallas Cowboys | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Awuzie hasn't been much of a playmaker in terms of interceptions, having recorded a total of four in 49 career games, and he missed half of the 2020 season because of a hamstring injury. But he has been a reliable player when on the field. So it will be worth watching if the Cowboys -- whose defense allowed 29.9 points per game in 2020 -- decide he is part of their solution or has been part of their problem.
40. William Jackson III, CB
2020 team: Cincinnati Bengals | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Jackson has had some solid moments for the Bengals over the past four years after missing his rookie season due to injury, but 2020 was not his best. The Bengals seemed to telegraph their long-term plans for him by signing a pair of veteran free agents at his position -- Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander -- last offseason.
41. Marvin Jones Jr., WR
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 31
Jones had his most reliable and productive season in four years, catching 76 passes for 978 yards and nine touchdowns while starting all 16 games for the Lions. It seems inevitable that he'll move on. Not every team is in the market for an over-30 receiver, but Jones still has playmaking ability.
42. Nelson Agholor, WR
2020 team: Las Vegas Raiders | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Agholor revived his career as a true downfield receiver in the Raiders' offense, finishing the season ranked No. 2 in the NFL in average yards per catch (18.7) and yards per target (15.4). He still struggled with drops, ranking No. 8 with an 8.6% drop rate, but he proved without a doubt to be the kind of deep threat many envisioned when he entered the league five years ago.
43. Richard Sherman, CB
2020 team: San Francisco 49ers | Age entering 2021 season: 33
Sherman is probably in the year-to-year phase of his career, given his age and his 11-game stint on injured reserve last season because of a calf injury. Some teams will likely write him off, but because there is no reason to think his injury will loom into 2021, Sherman merits a spot on this list given his still-present coverage skills.
44. Melvin Ingram III, Edge
2020 team: Los Angeles Chargers | Age entering 2021 season: 32
Ingram's foray into free agency will be tricky. His age and a mostly lost season in 2020 are real downsides. On the other hand, flawless pass-rushers never get to the market. There are always reasons, and they don't necessarily hold them back moving forward. Someone will bet that Ingram still has some good years left in him.
45. Gerald Everett, TE
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Everett has been the Rams' second tight end for most of his career, but his production, as well as the value teams place on tight ends who can exploit mismatches, make him a free agent worth watching. He set career highs with 41 receptions for 417 yards this season in the Rams' scheme.
46. Carl Lawson, Edge
2020 team: Cincinnati Bengals | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Lawson has never matched the production of his rookie season, when he recorded 8.5 sacks after the Bengals made him a fourth-round draft pick in 2017. But he became a starter in 2020, in conjunction with the departure of veteran Carlos Dunlap, and turned in the kind of performance that will conjure significant interest if he gets into the market. ESPN tracked him with a pressure rate of 10.1%, good for 16th best in the league.
47. Jadeveon Clowney, Edge
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 28
There's no other way to put it: Clowney has had two really weird years. He recorded just three sacks in 13 games for the Seahawks in 2019 and then struggled to reach an agreement during free agency last spring. He eventually signed with the Titans and didn't record a single sack in eight games before a knee injury ended his season. Clowney did bring pressure on 10.9% of his rushes, good for No. 10 in the league, and there is no reason to think his career is over.
48. Andy Dalton, QB
2020 team: Dallas Cowboys | Age entering 2021 season: 33
It went largely unnoticed, but Dalton turned in an above-average performance for a backup after returning in Week 12 from a stint on the COVID-19 list. Over that span, he led the Cowboys to a 3-3 record, throwing 10 touchdown passes to four interceptions and ranking No. 15 in QBR (61.4). He's not likely to receive a starting job outright in free agency, but of the quarterbacks who are currently available, he might be the best bet for a role as either a short-term starter or a backup who would compete in training camp.
49. Cam Newton, QB
2020 team: New England Patriots | Age entering 2021 season: 32
There is no disputing why Newton held the Patriots' starting job throughout 2020: He was the best quarterback on their roster. That's not the same as saying he is an unquestionably qualified NFL starter heading into 2021. He finished the season with a 47.1 QBR, No. 30 out of 33 quarterbacks who qualified for the final rankings. He was one of two players on the list who threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (8). But in a relatively thin market, even a potential starting quarterback merits a spot on this list.
50. Eric Wilson, LB
2020 team: Minnesota Vikings | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Wilson went from being a valuable backup to a 15-game starter in 2020, filling in for the injured Anthony Barr. He has enough good tape, with 122 tackles and three interceptions, to either tempt the Vikings to re-sign him as a starter or generate under-the-radar interest on the free-agent market.
Bonus free-agent names to watch:
T.Y. Hilton, WR
Jameis Winston, QB
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
Mike Hilton, CB
Russell Okung, OT
Xavier Woods, S
Quinton Dunbar, CB
Jayon Brown, LB
Troy Hill, CB
Brian Poole, CB
K.J. Wright, LB
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
Sammy Watkins, WR
Cam Robinson, OT
Daryl Williams, OT/G
Denico Autry, Edge
Jacoby Brissett, QB
Chris Carson, RB
Ndamukong Suh, DT
Jason Verrett, CB
Kenyan Drake, RB