With 18 NFL teams already on to the offseason, the shadow of 2021 free agency is growing. Expect a different free agency this year for one reason in particular: While the NFL has seen steady growth of its salary cap for the past seven years, the league has been planning for a potential reduction from last year's salary cap of $198.2 million, setting a floor of $175 million as part of the financial issues from the COVID-19 pandemic.
We'll see where the final number winds up at, but despite the likely reduction, one truth that has always prevailed about free agency is likely too again: Elite players get paid.
As we have also learned about free agency, the players who cash in aren't always the household names. Let's get into an exercise we've enjoyed in the past, as these are the seven free agents who could make more money than you might realize in March:
Joe Thuney, G, New England Patriots
2020 salary: $14.8 million | Age: 28
Thuney will hit free agency with a pristine résumé. He has played in 90 career regular-season and playoff games, more than any other player in NFL history through five seasons, and he has never missed a start. He has two Super Bowl rings as the Patriots' best offensive lineman for a significant portion of that stretch.
While Thuney has played left guard most often, he has also flexed out to left tackle and center when needed, handling both of those duties seamlessly. He's a technician who has held up well against the best of the best competition, has rarely been penalized, has A-plus football character and is very much still in the prime of his career.
I expect Thuney, who played on the franchise tag this season, to sign the richest free-agent contract for a guard in NFL history.
John Johnson III, S, Los Angeles Rams
2020 salary: $2.3 million | Age: 25
It's hard to know where to begin with Johnson, as he brings so much to the table that is both quantifiable and non-quantifiable. He tallied 105 tackles in 2020, his second 100-plus tackle season in just four years and had eight pass breakups, flashing his instincts and on-ball production. He played every single snap for the league's top defense and served as a team captain and extension of the brain of coordinator Brandon Staley.
Johnson is an indispensable member of the Rams' defense who has steadily improved each year in the NFL, readying for free agency at the age of 25. It would come as no surprise to see him earn a deal at or near the top of the safety market and get at least $14 million per season.
Taylor Moton, OT, Carolina Panthers
2020 salary: $1 million | Age: 27
Another offensive lineman ready to break the bank is Moton, the Panthers' 2017 second-round pick who just capped off his best season yet, anchoring the right tackle spot and playing every single offensive snap for Carolina. Another player in the prime of his career, Moton is best suited at right tackle, but he has the versatility to flex to left tackle in a pinch when needed, only heightening his value. Moton also fared well in ESPN's run block win rate metric this season, ranking as one of the top 10 tackles in the league.
We've seen offensive linemen fare extremely well in free agency in recent years, and while the left tackle market is still the highest-paying, the disparity in positional value between left and right tackle has diminished. Carolina has the means to retain Moton, but don't be surprised if his annual price tag comes close to $15 million per season.
Romeo Okwara, DE, Detroit Lions
2020 salary: $4 million | Age: 26
Okwara is an awesome story of player development and dedication to improvement, as the once undrafted free agent is set to get a big contract in March. He has spent three years in Detroit, with 2018 being the lone year in which he was regularly playing more than half the defensive snaps. But despite his modest snap count in 2020, he had 10 sacks and three forced fumbles as a pass-rusher who brings instant energy off the edge.
Okwara might be best suited to a role dedicated to getting after quarterback, as he's not likely to be a dominant edge setter in the running game. But in a league littered with talented passing attacks, there is no ceiling on the number of quality pass-rushers one roster can have. Factor in his skill set, age and football character -- he's an extremely well-respected player -- and Okwara will be coveted by teams.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
2020 salary: $8.2 million | Age entering the 2021 season: 26
Titans made the choice to decline the fifth-year option for Davis last May, a prudent decision given that he had less than 2,000 total receiving yards in his first three seasons. It opened a door for Davis, who was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and he has made the most of his contract year, nearly eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards in just 14 games, scoring a career-high five touchdowns and averaging a career-best 15.1 yards per catch.
The 2021 wide receiver free-agency class is strong -- as is the draft class -- which plays a part in every player's economic outlook, but Davis' body of work has him set up to be paid handsomely. Some of the wide receivers scheduled for free agency profile as possible franchise tag candidates (Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson), which would only increase the suitors for Davis.
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, New York Giants
2020 salary: $1.5 million | Age: 27
There are thankless elements to being a nose tackle in the NFL, as often times their job is to make the job of those around you easier. But we've seen the elite nose tackles get paid in free agency, with D.J. Reader the latest example; the former Texans defender got a four-year, $53 million deal from the Bengals last year.
Tomlinson does his job and much more, and he is coming off of yet another rock-solid season for the Giants. In four years, he has never missed a game, providing a rugged interior presence both in defending the run and disrupting the pocket. He forced 27 quarterback pressures with seven sacks over the past two seasons, blending power and explosion that is hard to miss.
On top of his on-field prowess, Tomlinson was the Giants' Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee in 2020, a testament to the person he is off the field. He'll be a priority for the Giants to re-sign but would earn major dough on the open market.
Marcus Maye, S, New York Jets
2020 salary: $2.1 million | Age: 28
When a team struggles like the 2-14 Jets did this season, it's easy to shrug off the individual accomplishments of players on the roster. But Maye, the Jets' MVP, has put together a favorable résumé and established himself as one of the best safeties in the league. The former second-round pick is an every-snap player -- he played 1,078 this season -- can handle deep middle-of-the-field coverage duties, can make plays at or near the line of scrimmage (he registered a pair of sacks in 2020) and has terrific leadership and communication skills.
Maye has a lot of what teams are looking for in an ascending safety scheduled for free agency for the first time in his career. General manager Joe Douglas has made no mystery about his desire to keep Maye around, so reaching the open market might not be the most likely outcome, but Maye is going to earn himself a big deal -- in New York or elsewhere.