Turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. Even as the league added two playoff teams to make a 14-team bracket in 2020, five of the 12 teams that made it to the postseason in 2019 didn't make a return trip this season. That's a group that includes the 49ers, who were the top seed in the NFC and its representatives in Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who had made it to the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles also failed to make it back into January, with two of those three not even coming particularly close.
Let's try to project what the 2021 playoff picture might look like by the time we get to the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: It's going to be wrong. We don't know who will even be coaching the Eagles or Texans or whether their starting quarterbacks will be sticking around for another season. In doing this, I'm predicting that there's a small chance either Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be traded to one of their more obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins or Jets.
We know that the Colts will have a new starting quarterback, as Philip Rivers announced his retirement Wednesday, but Drew Brees' future with the Saints is still up in the air. We don't even know whether fans will be able to cheer in stadiums come September.
I'll be leaning on the facts we do know -- namely, how each team performed in 2020 and what at least 16 games on their schedule will look like in 2021 -- to help make educated guesses about next season's playoff field. Where I've made particularly surprising choices, I've tried to give some historical context for teams that have made comparable leaps or similar declines.
Let's start with the team that is probably the least surprising pick of all, the defending champs:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BAL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
LAR | MIA | NE | NO | PIT
SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
While the Chiefs are unsurprisingly my pick for the top seed in the AFC, they actually look like a regression candidate in 2021, given that they were 14-2 with the point differential of a 10.5-win team. They went 8-0 in one-score games this season after going 10-8 in those same games during the first two years of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs might seem infallible in those close games, and there's nobody I would rather have than Mahomes, but the 2011 and 2012 Packers come to mind as a similar example, with Aaron Rodgers & Co. going from 15-1 to 11-5 the following season.
With that being said, even if we don't project Andy Reid's team to win quite as many of the close ones as it did in 2021, it still has the highest floor of any team in the league. Every team is susceptible to a dramatic decline if they lose their quarterback to injury, but unless we think that Mahomes is particularly susceptible to missing significant time, the Chiefs are too stacked on offense to fall too far from their perch. Their division also doesn't project to be very difficult, although the Chiefs will have a first-place schedule again.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens might have come up short in the divisional round, but by the end of the regular season they had quietly made a case as one of the NFL's best teams. They finished the season with the league's best point differential and were fourth in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) rankings. John Harbaugh's team torched an easy schedule over the final five weeks, with quarterback Lamar Jackson posting a league-best 93.8 QBR over that stretch.
Baltimore has to figure out a way to make its offense work against tougher competition in January, but it should still be in position to overwhelm most of the league's opposing defenses. The prospect of adding a star wide receiver from a deep free-agent crop should only make things scarier. The Ravens will need to rebuild their pass rush with Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue potentially leaving in unrestricted free agency, but they have the league's best record (31-8) since Jackson took over as quarterback.
3. Miami Dolphins
Well, here's a turn. The Dolphins are here because I'm projecting them to win the AFC East, something they weren't able to do as the Bills ascended to their first division title in the four-team era. Brian Flores' team probably won't have Ryan Fitzpatrick back, but it seems fair to suggest that Tua Tagovailoa will be better with a true offseason in his first full year as Miami's starting quarterback. I'm also baking in a 5% chance that the Dolphins trade for Deshaun Watson.
Even if they don't trade for the Texans star, the Dolphins will have the No. 3 overall pick and four of the top 50 selections in the 2021 NFL draft to add to an already-talented roster. They also will have more than $25 million to work with in an offseason that represents the ninth-largest amount of cap space in the league, per Spotrac. Bills fans won't have to wait long to see where I think they'll end up, but they could be neck-and-neck for the division next season.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record scratch. The Jaguars aren't winning the AFC South, right? They went 1-15 this season. Teams that go 1-15 don't win their division the following year. This is just an attempt to be provocative. Right?
Well, teams that go 1-15 or somewhere in that ballpark almost always get better. Sometimes, like the 2020 Bengals, they go from 2-14 to 4-11-1. That's not going to win any divisions. Other times, though, they get a lot better really quickly. The 2013 Texans went from 2-14 to 9-7 in 2014. The 2011 Colts went from 2-14 to 11-5 and made the playoffs. The 2012 Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 and also made it to the postseason.
In the ultimate reminder of how quickly things can change, the 2007 Dolphins went 1-15 in a division with the 16-0 Patriots. Anybody who picked the 2008 Dolphins to win the division in print would have been immediately fired, but after Tom Brady got hurt and the Dolphins harnessed the power of both the Wildcat and Chad Pennington, Miami won the AFC East. Changes in the NFL come faster than anybody expects.
Each of the teams I mentioned upgraded its quarterback and swapped out its coach. Jacksonville is doing that, and while Urban Meyer might not turn out to be an effective NFL coach, he has had success everywhere he has gone at the college level. Presumptive No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence would seem to be a dramatic upgrade on the combination of Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon at quarterback, and the Jags have the offensive line to help keep him afloat. They have nearly $76 million in cap space in a market in which no team has money. They could add all kinds of help in free agency in March.
Furthermore, we would need the teams around Jacksonville to decline, and, as I'll get to in a minute, there are reasons to doubt the Colts and Titans in 2021. The Texans project as a team likely to improve next season, but if they're forced to trade Watson, they'll be in the middle of a rebuild. Stranger things have happened than the possibility of the Jaguars winning the division title in 2021. Not many stranger things, granted, but stranger things.
5. Buffalo Bills
The Bills could very well be representing the AFC in Super Bowl LV, and they'll return all of their young core for 2021. They're also expected to get another year with Brian Daboll after the offensive coordinator didn't get the vacant Chargers job, which should help keep Josh Allen humming after his breakout season in 2020. Allen might take some minor steps backward in 2021 out of sheer year-to-year variance, but he still projects to be one of the league's best quarterbacks.
Instead, I'm expecting a small step backward for the Bills for a couple of reasons. One is that they went 13-3 with the point differential of a 10.6-win team. They went 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and got to that point differential only after finishing the season by winning three consecutive games by 29-plus points. They have one of the league's deepest lineups, but they're basically at the cap line for 2021 before giving Allen a lucrative extension.
Buffalo is also losing valuable depth along its offensive line and will have to rebuild at multiple spots there. They are more likely to come in somewhere around 10-6 or 11-5 and be the top AFC wild-card team.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will be in transition in 2021 regardless of whether they get back Ben Roethlisberger for one final season. I'm expecting Roethlisberger to return and play about the way he did in 2020, but Pittsburgh is $25 million over the projected cap before re-signing edge rusher Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Steelers have a more talented roster than the one they had on the field in 2020.
Even a reduced roster would still likely be enough to get the Steelers to nine wins, and that should be plenty to get them back to the postseason for the second straight season. If Roethlisberger doesn't return, though, Mike Tomlin's team won't have many paths to competent quarterback play. Mason Rudolph's performance throwing deep in Week 17 might have given true believers some hope, but this is probably Roethlisberger or bust next year.
7. New England Patriots
Them? Already? Yes, I think the Patriots will be back. They have to figure out their quarterback situation with Cam Newton as a free agent, but the Pats will get back several COVID-19 opt-outs -- including offensive tackle Marcus Cannon, safety Patrick Chung and linebacker Dont'a Hightower -- and still have nearly $59 million in projected cap space. I trust Bill Belichick to make good use of that cap space in a market in which veterans will be forced to take one-year deals for less than most expect. Belichick is also in position to attack his team's biggest weakness in a deep wideout market this spring.
The big question, naturally, is how much better they can get at quarterback than the combination of Newton and Jarrett Stidham. Belichick will have a starting job on a team with a solid offensive line, and unlike this season, he'll have the cap space to pursue options. Dak Prescott probably won't hit the market, but it wouldn't be shocking to see the Pats as the favorites to add someone such as Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Jimmy Garoppolo comes free in San Francisco, a reunion with the team that drafted him could be in the cards.
Teams that will miss the playoffs
The Tennessee Titans would be the highest-profile team to miss out on a return to the postseason. I'm concerned about Derrick Henry, who just finished the largest workload we've seen for a running back in recent memory. It's tough to count on Henry to be quite as productive in 2021, and any absence or decline from the star back could impact the entire Tennessee offense. The Titans will also need to find a way to address their dismal pass rush despite entering the offseason $7 million over the projected cap.
While the Indianapolis Colts came within a missed field goal and one final drive of vanquishing the Bills, Indy has a lot of work to do this offseason. Philip Rivers retired and Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, as are wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and outside linebacker Justin Houston. Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo also retired, leaving the Colts with holes at several key positions on offense. They have a lot of work to do this offseason, and they'll be competing with teams such as the Patriots for quarterback options. Indy also played the league's second-easiest schedule by FPI in 2020.
I'm one of the many who think that the Cleveland Browns are on the right track, but Cleveland was at least a little lucky to make it into January. Kevin Stefanski's team was outscored across the 2020 season and went 7-2 in one-score games while playing the league's easiest schedule. Advanced metrics like FPI and DVOA thought the Browns were a league-average team, and while average gets teams close to the postseason in the 14-team era, I think the Browns have a consolidation year in 2021.
NFC
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady & Co. finished the regular season as the second-best team in football by DVOA, coming in just behind the Saints and ahead of the Packers. Brady improved as the year went along and doesn't look to be close to falling off of any sort of age cliff, although that could happen at any time given the fact that he will be 44 next season. The Bucs are also in danger of losing wide receiver Chris Godwin and pass-rusher Shaq Barrett in free agency.
With that being said, they will return their star-laden offensive line and one of the league's deepest secondaries. They should be able to bring back wideout Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski at less than their actual value, and in a market in which players could be settling for less amid a reduced salary cap, the Bucs are going to be an appealing market for veterans on one-year deals. They are in position to be among the best teams in football again next season.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers continue to find a way to outplay their point differential since Matt LaFleur took over as coach. In 2019, they managed some late-game magic and went 7-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This season, while they only went 3-2 in those same games, they got an MVP season out of Aaron Rodgers and converted 80% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest conversion rate of the past 20 years. Rodgers might not be the MVP next season, and that touchdown rate is sure to come down, but Green Bay has enough talent on both sides of the ball to run it back as one of the best teams in the NFC.
The Packers are $25 million over the projected 2021 cap and have several key free agents (notably running back Aaron Jones and center Corey Linsley), so this roster will probably shed some talent. Given how strong they are at passing and stopping the pass, though, they should remain one of the top teams in the conference.
3. Dallas Cowboys
Somebody has to win the NFC East, and if the Cowboys hadn't lost quarterback Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury early in the season, it probably would have been them. Dallas also went without the three stars on its offensive line for most of the season and hired the wrong defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan, with previously talented Cowboys linebackers and linemen suddenly struggling to create reliable run fits or make tackles.
The Cowboys should be healthier in 2021, and we saw their offense's upside while Prescott was in the lineup. They have the highest upside of any team in the division, and if they can fix the secondary this offseason, their ceiling might be as Super Bowl contenders. Of course, as we saw in 2020, few teams seem better at getting in their own way or creating their own problems.
Prescott hadn't ever missed a game before his freak injury, so if we expect him to play something close to a full season in 2021, the Cowboys should be in good shape to win their division.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Who will be at quarterback for the 49ers in 2021? Back in November, I wrote about why it might not be Jimmy Garoppolo. Regardless of who it ends up being, he's likely to be better than what the Niners had in 2020, when Garoppolo started and finished only three total games.
The 49ers lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets, but they're also going to be healthier in 2021 than they were in 2020, and that's going to mean they have more talent on the field. As good as Saleh has been over the past two years, every team in the league would prefer 16 games of pass-rusher Nick Bosa to a full season from a defensive coordinator. The 49ers should look more like their 2019 selves in 2021, and that should get them back atop the NFC West.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Just behind the 49ers are the Seahawks, who seem set to retreat away from the Let Russ Cook offense of 2020 into something closer to their Let Russ Hand Off attacks of prior seasons. They still need to hire an offensive coordinator, which might hint further to their plans. They finished the season sixth in offensive DVOA, and while they were fifth in DVOA in 2019, it might be tough for them to keep that up again in 2021.
Seattle will hope that its second-half surge on defense will stick with a healthier group of players next season, although much of that raw improvement came against backup quarterbacks. Pete Carroll's team would also seem set to improve by virtue of having their fans back in the stadium in 2021, but it was 7-1 at home in 2020 before losing to the Rams in the wild-card round. Another 12-4 season might be a big ask, but the Seahawks should be back in the 10-win range again in 2021.
6. Atlanta Falcons
For the first time in several years, the Chargers will not be appearing as a team likely to improve or decline in my columns before the 2021 season. They're being replaced on the teams likely to improve list by the Falcons, who suffered through a typical Chargers season in 2020. The 4-12 Falcons were 3.6 wins below their Pythagorean expectation, which is the biggest underperformance we've seen over the past 20 years. The closest comparables are the 2001 Chargers (who jumped from 5-11 to 8-8) and the 2017 Browns (who went from 0-16 to 7-8-1).
Atlanta will have better luck in 2021. That alone might not be enough to get it into the postseason, but the arrival of coach Arthur Smith from Tennessee could revitalize an inconsistent offense. The defense remains a question mark after years of mediocre play, but if another team in the South takes a step backward, the Falcons -- who get to play a last-place schedule -- could be the most likely beneficiaries.
7. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will reportedly hire former Falcons interim coach Raheem Morris to take over as their defensive coordinator, which gives them a promising candidate to replace newly departed Chargers coach Brandon Staley. Even if Staley had stayed, it would have been tough for the Rams to repeat as the league's top scoring defense in 2021, if only just as a product of year-to-year variance. As long as defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey stay healthy, this should remain a very good defense next year.
The question, then, is whether the offense can pick up the slack. Jared Goff & Co. improved from 16th to 10th in DVOA with improved offensive line play, although coach Sean McVay was more aggressive in criticizing Goff at the end of the year. My guess is that he will be playing for his Rams future in 2021 and respond with a better campaign than the inconsistent season we saw in 2020. If that happens, the Rams should be able to sneak in as the final seed in the NFC.
Teams that will miss the playoffs
The New Orleans Saints are the team most conspicuous by their absence, but you can probably guess why I'm skeptical. Drew Brees' expected retirement and the $100-plus-million cap hole the Saints find themselves in heading into 2021 mean this roster will be significantly less talented than the one we saw over the past several seasons. Coach Sean Payton is still going to be an offensive genius, but New Orleans' 2021 season feels like it could be similar to the Patriots' 2020.
I'm concerned that a weakened Saints team will have to play a first-place schedule. The same is true for the Washington Football Team, which finished the season with a positive point differential despite playing with four different starting quarterbacks. It's unclear who will start for Washington in 2021, and the more difficult schedule might prove too much for a team that is still in significant transition on both sides of the ball under Ron Rivera.
The Chicago Bears barely sneaked into the playoffs at 8-8, and while they've decided to bring back coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace for another season, they're nearly $10 million over the projected cap and have only Nick Foles at quarterback. The return of those executives makes it more likely that the Bears will run things back with Foles and Mitchell Trubisky (a free agent), which doesn't seem appealing to me. The Bears may also lose star wide receiver Allen Robinson, which will make this offense even more unwatchable. I'm skeptical that the Bears make it back.