If you thought the 2020 NFL season was weird, just wait for 2021. While we all hope that the league won't be as significantly impacted by COVID-19 as it was during a stop-and-start 2020 campaign, one of the financial effects of the pandemic will still be felt next season. The salary cap has been steadily rising over the last decade, but in 2021, the baseline cap number every team starts its offseason with will fall from the previously expected mark of $210 million to a new expectation of $175 million, a 16.7% drop.
Some teams have made preparations in recent weeks for the cap decline, but just about every long-term contract signed over the past few years was structured under the idea that the cap was going to continue rising. As a result, we're going to see teams placed in unfamiliar situations this offseason. There will be less money to go around for free agents, and veterans on rosters with unguaranteed deals might have to choose between taking a pay cut or being pushed onto the open market. It's going to be messy.
With that in mind, I've gone through the 14 playoff teams and taken a look at the players who might not be back on their rosters in 2021, along with projected cap space numbers from Spotrac. We'll go in order of seeding in each conference:
Jump to a team:
BAL | BUF
CHI | CLE | GB | IND
LAR | KC | NO | PIT
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
NFC playoff seed: No. 1
After they drafted quarterback Jordan Love in the first round last April, there was speculation that the Packers might move on from Aaron Rodgers after the season. Well, that's not happening. The team is $24.4 million over the projected cap for 2021, but the favorite to win league MVP isn't going anywhere.
Instead, the most prominent Packers player likely to leave is unrestricted free agent Aaron Jones. Green Bay doesn't have the short-term cap space to franchise its starting running back and used a second-round pick on AJ Dillon in last year's draft. It seems more likely that Green Bay would re-sign backup Jamaal Williams to pair with Dillon while letting Jones leave. Wide receiver Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan are restricted free agents and likely to return.
The Packers will also likely need to make some sacrifices up front, where guard Lane Taylor and All-Pro center Corey Linsley are both free agents. It's difficult to imagine more than one of the two returning. Inconsistent starting cornerback Kevin King is a free agent, while superstar Jaire Alexander is now eligible for a lucrative extension. His current cap hold for 2021 is only $3.8 million, so the Packers will have to get creative to avoid dramatically increasing Alexander's cap figure as part of a new deal.
I suspect that general manager Brian Gutekunst will get under the cap by cutting linebacker Christian Kirksey and re-signing wide receiver Davante Adams, who is entering the final year of his extension. Moving on from Kirksey will free up $6 million, and while an Adams deal is going to cost significant money, the team should be able to reduce his $16.9 million cap hit for 2021 as part of a Julio Jones-sized pact. Green Bay also could convert left tackle David Bakhtiari's $11.6 million roster bonus to an option bonus to free up an additional $8.7 million.
New Orleans Saints (12-4)
NFC playoff seed: No. 2
Whew. Well, you might want to grab some coffee before we get started here. What I'm about to say isn't a typo: The Saints are $99.9 million over the projected cap for 2021. Let that number sink in. New Orleans has been in bad cap shape before, but it has never had to stare down a number like that on the ledger. Outside of arguably the Eagles, no team in the league was less prepared for an unexpected cap reduction than the Saints.
What makes that number even scarier is that it doesn't even include the free agents they have leaving town. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson, tight end Jared Cook, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and safety Marcus Williams have been key contributors at times, and I don't know if they will be able to bring any of them back. There's a whole second tier of contributors who are also unrestricted free agents: linebackers Alex Anzalone and Craig Robertson, cornerback P.J. Williams, quarterback Jameis Winston and guard James Hurst.
Even if the Saints let all these guys leave, they'll have to replace them on the roster. They are also down their third-, fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks in the upcoming draft, so while they'll get a third-round compensatory pick back for losing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in free agency, it's not as if coach Sean Payton is going to be able to flood this roster with draft picks.
How could they clear out nearly $100 million in cap space? Well, they have to start at the top and work their way down:
If Drew Brees retires as expected, the Saints would free up $13.5 million. The team could alternately restructure the veteran quarterback's contract if he wants to play in 2021, but let's assume for this exercise that he retires.
Cutting linebacker Kwon Alexander should create $13.4 million in space. We've already saved nearly $27 million! Being a cap person is easy.
It gets tougher from here on out. Interior offensive lineman Nick Easton is valuable depth, but we need the $6 million in cap savings for a guy who isn't projected to start. Moving on from veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders frees up an additional $6.5 million, and releasing defensive tackle Malcom Brown creates $5 million more in savings. Janoris Jenkins, with a $14.2 million cap hold, can net us $10 million more as a post-June 1 release, and fellow corner Patrick Robinson gets us $2.6 million more. We're at $57 million, more than halfway to our target.
While he might have been the subject of trade rumors, we need to use the four years remaining on Michael Thomas' extension as runway. Converting $11.6 million of his $12.6 million base salary into an option bonus and adding a voidable year frees up $9.3 million. We can make a similar move with defensive end Cam Jordan's contract and create $8.7 million more in space. While the Saints are kicking the can further down the line on these deals, we just have no choice. We're up to $75.3 million.
Star left tackle Terron Armstead is due for a new contract. A four-year, $96 million deal could be structured in such a way as to reduce the 2021 cap figure; by giving him a two-tier signing bonus with $20 million due in 2021 and $20 million more due next year, the team could reduce his cap hold this year by $5.2 million, getting us to $80.5 million.
The Saints have a pair of young superstars due new deals, and both tackle Ryan Ramczyk and cornerback Marshon Lattimore are expecting to become one of the highest-paid players at their respective positions in the game. Both Lattimore ($10.2 million) and Ramczyk ($11.1 million) already have significant cap figures, so the team could reduce both those figures with extensions. Again, with a two-tier bonus structure, let's say the Saints reduce each of their 2021 cap holds to $5 million. While they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars, they've now freed up $11.3 million more and gotten all the way to $91.8 million.
Here's what scary: I'm out of obvious options and we're still more than $8 million away from even getting under the cap, let alone signing anyone to replace all the players we've just lost. At this point, you're looking at extending quarterback Taysom Hill to reduce his cap hit or possibly trading Ramczyk as opposed to re-signing him. The Saints are all-in, and while that's fine given Brees' window, the bottom half of their roster is going to be unrecognizable in 2021.
Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
NFC playoff seed: No. 3
The Seahawks aren't likely to undergo major changes. With $15 million in cap room, general manager John Schneider won't be able to do too much to add to his roster; he'll be looking more toward trying to retain young free agents, such as cornerback Shaquill Griffin, center Ethan Pocic, wide receiver David Moore and running back Chris Carson. Griffin will be the team's top priority and is likely going to take home more than $15 million per season on a new deal, so that alone would eat up almost the entirety of Seattle's space. The team also needs to give star safety Jamal Adams a new contract, which should come in north of $16 million per season.
If we assume that those guys are the focus of Schneider's attention, a lot of veterans are going to go by the wayside here. Big names abound: Linebackers K.J. Wright and Bruce Irvin, tight end Greg Olsen, running back Carlos Hyde, guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Quinton Dunbar and wide receiver Josh Gordon are all unrestricted free agents, along with rotation pieces defensive end Benson Mayowa, tight end Jacob Hollister and offensive lineman Cedric Ogbuehi.
Schneider doesn't have many cap casualties on the roster, although it wouldn't be surprising if the Seahawks negotiated a new deal to bring down edge rusher Carlos Dunlap's $14.1 million cap hold for 2021. The team could negotiate a new extension with defensive tackle Jarran Reed, who had 6.5 sacks this season, to try to create some short-term cap savings.
Washington Football Team (7-9)
NFC playoff seed: No. 4
Washington's situation reminds me a lot of the 2017 Bills, a team in Year 1 of a rebuild that happened to make the playoffs. Bills coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane continued to tear down their roster, and I would expect Washington to do the same. Linebacker Thomas Davis has already said he'll retire. Edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan is a free agent and unlikely to return after seeing his role reduced in 2020. Quarterback Alex Smith's story has been incredibly inspiring, but the organization probably doesn't want to bring him back at a $24 million cap hold, especially when it can free up $13.6 million in cap space by moving on. If Smith wants to keep playing in Washington, it might require a pay cut. Taylor Heinicke, who impressed in the team's wild-card playoff loss, is an unrestricted free agent who could return with a modest guarantee.
Coach Ron Rivera will likely try to bring back cornerback Ronald Darby, who allowed an 81.0 passer rating while staying healthy for 16 games for the first time in his career. And while the franchise locked up center Chase Roullier at the end of the regular season, Washington will need to do something about franchise guard Brandon Scherff. A second tag would cost the team a little over $18 million, which would be an exorbitant figure in a market where no guard is making more than $14.1 million per year. The first-team All-Pro will likely become the highest-paid guard in football history this offseason, whether it's in Washington or somewhere else.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
NFC playoff seed: No. 5
While Tampa has more than $28 million in cap space in 2021, its list of big names hitting free agency is dramatic. Linebacker Lavonte David, tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receiver Chris Godwin, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, defensive end Shaquil Barrett and wide receiver Antonio Brown are all unrestricted free agents. The Bucs generally run a clean cap with no signing bonuses and little restructuring, meaning that they don't sell out their future cap situation to create short-term cap space in the way that other teams around the league have done. Any rule is subject for debate given their short-term window with quarterback Tom Brady, but it'll be tough for them to bring back all of those players.
If we assume Brady is playing in 2021, the picture becomes clearer. Tampa would likely bring back Gronkowski and Brown, both of whom would be playing for something less than market value. In doing so, despite the fact that he's their youngest free agent, the Bucs would probably have to move on from Godwin. They could go after a cheaper option in the slot, like possible cap casualty Julian Edelman, who played only six games for New England in 2020 because of a knee injury.
Barrett will likely be the higher priority than Suh, who is playing out one-year deals at the tail end of his career. While the sack numbers are down for the 2019 league leader, Barrett still finished the regular season with eight sacks and 16 knockdowns while placing fourth in the league in hurries. Tampa also will have to decide whether it wants to re-sign running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy, both of whom are unrestricted free agents.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
NFC playoff seed: No. 6
Relative to the Saints, it seems almost quaint that the Rams are only $21 million over the projected cap. They had $36.7 million in dead money on their cap this season as they got out from under the Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley deals, and Gurley will be responsible for $8.4 million in dead money in 2021. The missing space could cost the team a shot at re-signing pass-rusher Leonard Floyd, cornerback Troy Hill, tight end Gerald Everett and safety John Johnson, all of whom are unrestricted free agents. Floyd, who followed in Dante Fowler's footsteps as a disappointing first-rounder who reemerged on the edge in Los Angeles, could follow Fowler out the door by virtue of being too expensive.
The Rams are built around a core of very expensive players. The most costly one is Jared Goff. They could save $12.5 million on their 2021 cap if they traded the 26-year-old quarterback, but that move seems off the table. Coach Sean McVay also wouldn't have much in the way of resources to go after a new quarterback if the team moved on from Goff, barring a trade for someone such as Sam Darnold. Anything is possible, but I think the Rams will move forward with Goff for at least another season or two before having more serious thoughts about his future.
More realistically, they will create cap space by restructuring the deals of defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. If Andrew Whitworth retires, Los Angeles would free up an additional $5.3 million, although it would be left with a crater at left tackle. The Rams are perennially players in veteran free agency and will likely try to find a starter or two on defense who won't impact their compensatory formula. They won't have a lot of cap room, but in a tight market, they might not need much.
Chicago Bears (8-8)
NFC playoff seed: No. 7
I wrote about the Mitchell Trubisky situation on Monday, one day after the 26-year-old quarterback posted a 9.4 QBR in a playoff loss to the Saints. With coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace returning in 2021, the chances of Trubisky, who is an unrestricted free agent, returning are higher than they would be under a new regime. Nick Foles still has $9 million guaranteed on his deal between 2021 and 2022, so he would only leave if the team traded him.
Otherwise, the organization doesn't have many options; it is already projected to be narrowly over the 2021 cap, and that's before re-signing star wide receiver Allen Robinson. Pace also has to look into deals for defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris, wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and safety Tashaun Gipson, but the Bears would have one of the worst receiving corps in football if they don't retain Robinson. The organization could franchise him, but that would make their 2021 cap even more difficult to balance.
The problem is that Chicago is locked into big deals for many of its key contributors. The Bears could either cut cornerback Kyle Fuller or work on a new deal to reduce the veteran's $20 million cap hold, depending on how much space they need at quarterback and wide receiver. Releasing Fuller would free up as much as $14 million. More realistic savings would come by cutting other veterans: Tight end Jimmy Graham, offensive tackle Bobby Massie and cornerback Buster Skrine would combine to produce $16.5 million in room. Defensive end Robert Quinn -- who had only two sacks after signing a five-year, $70 million deal last March -- and linebacker Danny Trevathan are locked onto the 2021 cap since cutting them wouldn't create any cap savings.
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
AFC playoff seed: No. 1
The defending champs are $16.4 million over the projected cap. They can get underneath quickly by turning quarterback Patrick Mahomes' $21.7 million roster bonus into an option bonus, freeing up $17.4 million in cap room immediately. Designating linebacker Anthony Hitchens as a post-June 1 release would free up an additional $6.5 million. Kansas City might also choose to move on from one of its starting tackles, which would save either $12 million if it releases Eric Fisher or $6.3 million if it does the same with Mitchell Schwartz. Both players are entering the final year of their respective deals.
The Chiefs will return most of their key players. Oft-injured veterans Sammy Watkins (wide receiver) and Alex Okafor (defensive end) will move on. The team will retool in the secondary, where Daniel Sorensen and Bashaud Breeland are unrestricted free agents and Charvarius Ward is restricted. Likewise, along the offensive line, the Chiefs are projected to lose Austin Reiter, Kelechi Osemele, Mike Remmers and Daniel Kilgore.
Running back Le'Veon Bell and fullback Anthony Sherman also are unrestricted free agents, while linebacker Damien Wilson and wideout Demarcus Robinson round out the notable free agents for Kansas City.
Buffalo Bills (13-3)
AFC playoff seed: No. 2
The Bills have begun to lock up their core draftees, and they'll have three more projects to hit this offseason. One will be re-signing quarterback Josh Allen, who will be eligible for an extension for the first time and likely looking at something in the ballpark of Deshaun Watson's deal. The other two signings will be at linebacker, where Tremaine Edmunds will be eligible for a new extension and Matt Milano hits unrestricted free agency.
Both players could command a premium -- Milano is probably looking at something like the five-year, $53.8 million deal Joe Schobert signed last year -- so the Bills will have to ask themselves whether they're comfortable paying two linebackers north of $11 million per season. Franchising Milano isn't practical, given that the linebacker tag doesn't differentiate between inside linebackers and edge rushers and could come in above $16 million per season.
Outside of those three young stars, Buffalo's free agents are mostly veteran depth signings, including offensive linemen Ty Nsekhe and Jon Feliciano and tight end Tyler Kroft. The team will have to commit meaningful money to re-sign Daryl Williams, who reestablished his career as the starting right tackle. Star punt returner Andre Roberts is also a free agent, and the Bills might prefer to re-sign speedy wideout Isaiah McKenzie, who returned a punt for a touchdown in Week 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
AFC playoff seed: No. 3
The Steelers haven't done a great job of managing their cap for years, and while great drafting has helped stave off some concerns, 2021 is going to be tough. They're already $21 million over the cap, with the biggest obstacle being the contract of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. As he enters the final year of his deal, Roethlisberger's cap hold for next season is a league-high $41.3 million. The Steelers could free up $19 million by cutting him, but after restructuring his deal this offseason, they'll be on the hook for $22.3 million if he is released or retires. It wouldn't be surprising to see the team offer him a paper extension with voidable years to try to create short-term cap space if he does want to play in 2021, although his reaction after Sunday's upset loss to Cleveland suggested that he might not return.
That $21 million figure in cap space doesn't include re-signing any free agents. For the Steelers, that's a significant group; it includes outside linebacker Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, defensive end Tyson Alualu, running back James Conner, offensive tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Matt Feiler, and cornerbacks Mike Hilton and Cameron Sutton. There's just no way they can bring back all those guys, especially given the deals that Dupree and Smith-Schuster are likely to see in free agency. Retaining one of the tackles (likely Feiler) and cornerbacks (Hilton, a Mike Tomlin favorite) seems like the best-case scenario.
Young All-Pro defenders T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are also eligible for extensions for the first time, and the best thing for Pittsburgh's future cap situations would be to lock up the edge rusher and safety as early as possible. Given the cap constraints, much as the Saints weren't able to re-sign cornerback Marshon Lattimore and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk last offseason, I wonder if Pittsburgh will wait one more year before getting a deal done with its two defensive cornerstones.
To even get under the cap, the Steelers will need to shuffle around money. They could give new deals to cornerback Joe Haden and center Maurkice Pouncey, who are in the final year of their deals, with cap holds of $15.6 million and $14.5 million, respectively. Pouncey could retire, however, and if he does, the team would save $8 million, although it would still have $6.5 million in dead money left on the 2021 cap.
Pittsburgh could free up $6 million by cutting Eric Ebron and/or $5.2 million by releasing Vance McDonald, its top two tight ends. So much depends on Roethlisberger, but even if the Steelers get the cap relief from their aging quarterback retiring, they would need to find the money to go after his replacement.
Tennessee Titans (11-5)
AFC playoff seed: No. 4
The Titans have only $7.7 million in cap space in 2021, but most of their core is under contract. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is their highest-profile free agent, but after a disappointing one-year stint in Nashville, a reunion is unlikely. General manager Jon Robinson seems likely to address the team's moribund pass rush in the draft. The team can free up cap space by releasing cornerback Malcolm Butler ($9.6 million in savings) or wide receiver Adam Humphries ($7.3 million as a post-June 1 release).
Speaking of Humphries, while Tennessee has A.J. Brown locked in as its No. 1 wideout, the rest of its receiving depth chart is up for grabs. For the second year in a row, the Titans might regret declining the fifth-year option on a former first-round pick. Last year, it was offensive tackle Jack Conklin. This time around, it's Corey Davis, who responded to a disappointing 2019 by delivering his best NFL season. The flooded market for wideouts might limit the interest in Davis, but teams could also see a former No. 5 overall pick who has spent most of his career in a run-first offense and see Davis as the next Robert Woods. His market will depend on how many of the other prominent wideouts make it to free agency, but the Titans have to be preparing something in the $11 million-per-year range if they have serious thoughts of keeping him.
At tight end, both Jonnu Smith and MyCole Pruitt are unrestricted free agents, while Anthony Firkser is a restricted free agent. Smith's eight-touchdown campaign in 2020 may help open the door for teams that see him as both an above-average blocker and a viable red zone target. I don't think he would get Austin Hooper-level money, but in a league starved for tight ends, the only other notable tight ends under 28 hitting the market this year besides Smith will be Hunter Henry and Gerald Everett. My guess is that the Titans, who use two or more tight ends about 50% of the time, will have to choose between keeping Smith or Davis this offseason.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
AFC playoff seed: No. 5
Like the Bills, the Ravens will have a massive quarterback extension to look forward to this offseason, as Baltimore will surely look to re-sign 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal. The Ravens have $24.2 million in room to work with, and after re-signing left tackle Ronnie Stanley and cornerback Marlon Humphrey in 2020, most of the hard work in retaining their young core is done. The only obvious cap casualty on the roster is running back Mark Ingram, whose release would free up $5 million in room.
On the other hand, the Ravens will need to rebuild their pass rush from scratch. Matthew Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Derek Wolfe, Tyus Bowser, Jihad Ward and Pernell McPhee are all unrestricted free agents. Judon is likely to leave for a long-term deal, and Baltimore will have to decide whether it wants to compete with the open market for Ngakoue, who has three sacks and three knockdowns in nine games with the team since he joined in October. A one-year deal for something close to the franchise tag might end up making sense for both sides given the buyer's market we're likely to see this offseason. Wide receiver Willie Snead is also a free agent and unlikely to return at his 2020 price tag of $6 million.
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
AFC playoff seed: No. 6
The Browns are still transitioning from John Dorsey's run as general manager, and some of his additions to the team could move on this offseason. Defensive end Olivier Vernon, who tore his Achilles in December, is a free agent, and so are cornerback Terrance Mitchell and offensive lineman Kendall Lamm. Several short-term signings by new GM Andrew Berry are also free agents, and the organization might be more interested in keeping linebacker B.J. Goodson or safety Karl Joseph.
The only core free agent the Browns might focus on bringing back is defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, who has spent most of his time in 2020 playing as a nose tackle. They could re-sign Ogunjobi and cut Sheldon Richardson to get the former third-rounder back in a role as a penetrating interior pass-rusher. Cutting Richardson would free up $12 million, and while the Browns are hitting the offseason with $24.3 million in cap space, they might need that room to explore an extension with quarterback Baker Mayfield. They could alternately let Ogunjobi leave and look for a run-plugging tackle to play alongside Richardson. I think the latter option -- that they keep Richardson -- is more likely.
While the idea will draw offseason speculation, I would be surprised if the team moved on from wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The former Giants star has disappointed in Cleveland and is coming off a torn ACL, but the Browns wouldn't save any cap space if they traded him this spring. In a market that might be overloaded with free-agent wideouts -- the contracts of Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson are expired -- it's hard to see Beckham producing anything more than a midround pick in a potential trade. Cleveland will take a more serious look at Beckham's future after 2021.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
AFC playoff seed: No. 7
The good news for the Colts is that they have more than $68 million in projected cap space for the 2021 season. The bad news is that the only quarterback they have under contract for next year is 2020 fourth-round pick Jacob Eason, as both Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett are unrestricted free agents. Indy has been popularly linked to Carson Wentz, and it is one of the few teams that could easily afford to fit Wentz's deal onto its cap without making any sacrifices. The Eagles' move to fire Doug Pederson makes it more likely that Wentz will stay in Philly. Rivers could also come back if he wants to play another season on another one-year deal.
The Colts will need to recruit a quarterback and a new left tackle after veteran Anthony Castonzo retired. Several other prominent veterans are free agents, most notably longtime wideout T.Y. Hilton and edge rusher Justin Houston. Hilton struggled for most of the season, but the 31-year-old made his case by posting a 27-435-5 line over the final six games of the regular season. He is likely to be hurt by the deep wideout class in free agency; it would be shocking if he got anything close to Emmanuel Sanders' two-year, $24 million deal from last March. Houston is really best as a situational pass-rusher at this point, but Indianapolis has yet to unearth a difference-maker after using four second- and third-round picks over the past four years on edge defenders.
Former first-round pick Malik Hooker, who was general manager Chris Ballard's first selection after arriving from Kansas City, tore his Achilles in September and is likely to leave. The team didn't pick up the safety's fifth-year option. Former starting running back Marlon Mack, who suffered the same injury in Week 1, seems to have been replaced by rookie Jonathan Taylor. Longtime Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes impressed on a one-year deal and could return. Indy might end up using some of its cap room to re-sign guard Quenton Nelson and linebacker Darius Leonard, both of whom are eligible for new deals this spring.