The potential -- inevitable? -- Deshaun Watson breakup with the Houston Texans is running its natural course, with four stages cleared and more coming:
Stage 1: Watson's unhappiness over ownership decisions goes public.
Stage 2: Watson doesn't return phone calls from the Texans.
Stage 3: An Adam Schefter tweet reminds us that, yes, this is real.
Stage 4: Watson and his marketing agent like an Instagram account showcasing a New York Post cover saying the New York Jets must do "WATever it Takes" to get Watson in a trade.
Not everyone around the league is convinced the Texans will trade Watson. But we know how these things usually go. And we know the next stages:
Stage 5: Houston will "listen" to offers, but isn't actively trading Watson.
Stage 6: OK, so now they are initiating trade talks.
Stage 7: Teams that really want him try to downplay his importance by pumping up the quarterbacks they already have, but don't like as much.
This is the NFL's circle of life, and short of new GM Nick Caserio going full John Cusack with the boombox outside of Watson's window, a trade feels very possible. This is wild to say about a top-five quarterback in his prime. Which is also why the Texans can, will and should try everything possible to reconcile this.
But Watson clearly is frustrated by the Texans' business dealings, and he's showing the power he wields without saying a word.
Embattled executive Jack Easterby, a former chaplain and character coach, is fighting for his job, influencing decision-making at the top and rankling a faction of the locker room with a disingenuous mix of faith and football, according to investigative work by Sports Illustrated.
Owner Cal McNair said he would involve Watson in the process of hiring a general manager and head coach, but swiftly hired Caserio, with whom Easterby has a relationship from his days in New England. This usurped Watson's desire for a culture change, and a source close to Watson told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that firing Easterby would not resolve the issue, saying that "Cal McNair would have to fire Cal McNair."
This is a massive story that deserves treatment from all angles, setting the stage for perhaps the biggest blockbuster deal since the Minnesota Vikings traded away eight draft picks, including three first-round selections, five veteran players and more to acquire Herschel Walker in 1989.
After several talks with NFL personnel, here's what to expect from the Watson saga, the teams people in the league are talking about as best fits, and why it could take an unprecedented haul to get the 25-year-old out of Houston.
Jump ahead:
Impact of the no-trade clause
How the league views Watson
What a trade looks like
Five possible destinations
What does Watson's contract look like?
In September, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with a $27 million signing bonus, an average annual payout of $39 million and $73 million guaranteed.
Watson had two years left on a rookie deal that included a fifth-year option, so the Texans worked that remaining money into the deal for a total haul of around $180 million over six years, expiring after the 2025 season.
The Texans had an offseason to forget. They foolishly traded away DeAndre Hopkins for Day 2 draft capital. They were reeling and needed a move to instill confidence and spin the franchise forward.
Signing Watson to the second-richest contract in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes' 10-year, $450 million deal was an easy call.
Why is the deal friendly to prospective teams?
Because the Texans must keep the signing bonus on their salary cap, which means Watson's payout and salary cap on a new team would be $10.54 million in 2021, a serious bargain for any quarterback, let alone a top-five passer.
The next two years are heavier lifts: $35 million in 2022, all base salary, and $37 million in 2023, including a $20 million salary and a $17 million roster bonus.
So a team acquiring Watson would pay $45.5 million over the next two years and $82.5 million over three years. For comparison, that's roughly the same amount the Eagles are scheduled to pay Carson Wentz (three years, $81.9 million) over the same span.
"A bargain," said an NFL salary-cap executive. "I bet many teams would do that in a heartbeat."
Watson's $32 million base salaries in 2024 and 2025 are not guaranteed, so most teams would focus on the three-year window with Watson.
Can Watson really pick his new team based on a no-trade clause?
Sort of. Watson's contract states that the Texans are not permitted to trade Watson unless the player gives the team written consent to do so.
So, in the realest sense, Watson has to sign off on a deal. If the Texans have a deal lined up with Team X and Watson doesn't want that team, he can withhold that consent.
If this process goes far enough, the Texans and Watson's agent, David Mulugheta, can discuss teams that would generate approval from Watson, so it's a nonissue once a trade gets close. While the no-trade clause is leverage in the typical sense, Watson also has something else on his side.
"He's the franchise QB that speaks on behalf of a frustrated locker room," an NFC exec said. "If he's not happy, those guys in the locker room will follow him. And that can have a lasting impact on your entire team's performance in 2021."
What does all that mean for the Texans' options?
If a trade happens, it means the Texans would have paid $29.4 million to Watson for the 2020 season, then taken on $21.6 million in dead salary cap for trading away a generational player -- unless they can make a case through NFL's management council that the new team should absorb some of the signing bonus, which doesn't often happen.
No draft haul will ease that pain.
"I've talked to GMs who say why would you give away a player who's so talented and young and such a building block?" an NFL personnel man said. "Especially as you just paid him $27 million a few months ago."
Caserio looms large here. What's clear is Watson didn't like the process by which the new GM landed the Texans' job; this implies he's not exactly thrilled by the hire, though his problems seem directed at the people doing the hiring. But several people in the league say the Watson drama has camouflaged the home run hire Houston just made. Caserio was a key component to New England's run and is well-respected around the league. He also embodies the Patriot Way, which means he'll move in calculated silence.
"The one thing I know about Nick is he'll do what's best for the Texans -- if that means Watson stays, he'll stand firm on that," an AFC personnel man said. "I believe that."
The Texans' leverage is simple: Players show up when the money is in jeopardy. An extended absence from the team could eventually default Watson's contract, which puts paying back signing-bonus money on the table. But that would ignite an already-wounded locker room. Good luck with that.
"I'd be hard-pressed to believe they want to get out of this deal," an NFC exec said. "Something doesn't add up."
How does the NFL view Watson as a player?
Watson was the No. 4 quarterback in our top 10 series ranking players at each position with input from more than 50 NFL coaches, execs and scouts, narrowly defeating Drew Brees with toughness and dynamic playmaking.
Teams laud Watson's special playmaking despite a subpar offensive line for the better part of his four seasons in Houston.
Clutch performances are a trademark for Watson, whose 10 game-winning drives in his first three seasons were the most of any NFL quarterback from 2017 to '19.
Comebacks were hard to find during the Texans' 4-12 season in 2020, but Watson didn't hurt his stock with a career-high 112.4 passer rating along with 4,823 yards, 33 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, completing 70.2% of his passes.
He was top five in several categories: yards per attempt (second, 8.3), Total QBR (fourth, 69.9), percentage of throws that result in a first down (second, 39.9%), expected points added as a rusher among QBs (second, +69.0) and completion percentage above expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth, 64.5%).
Still, NFL personnel evaluators maintain Watson isn't the easiest player to assess because he has taken a jarring 174 sacks, isn't considered elite with pocket maneuvering and, in the eyes of one NFL coordinator, could use more offensive structure and tough coaching.
Watson takes sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks, the most of any NFL player with 20 or more games played. Only Russell Wilson has more sacks since 2017, during which the Texans' offensive line ranked 13th in pass block win rate, indicating you can't totally blame blocking for the sack numbers.
Watson has a 3.0% interception rate when his team has the lead, which is fifth worst in the league.
"Deshaun can continue to improve as a quarterback, which is probably the most exciting thing about him," an NFC exec said. "He's a high-level guy with all the tools and he's still got nuances that he can master, and he seems to be chipping away at those each year."
Watson is hardly a slam dunk to earn the No. 4 spot in this year's rankings, though, with Josh Allen coming on in a big way.
What will Watson's trade value be?
All those numbers stress how unprecedented a quarterback of this stature being potentially available really is. Since 2000, eight veteran NFL players were traded for multiple first-round picks. The only quarterback on that list is Jay Cutler, who went from the Broncos to the Bears in 2009 in exchange for Kyle Orton, back-to-back firsts and a third-round pick.
Several of these deals came recently. In 2019, the Los Angeles Rams and Texans gave up two firsts for cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tackle Laremy Tunsil, respectively. That 2021 pick from Houston gives Miami the No. 3 overall selection, thanks to a deal former coach Bill O'Brien executed before his 2020 firing. Last offseason, the Seattle Seahawks sent two firsts to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams.
Then there's the Robert Griffin III trade in 2012, with the Washington Football Team giving the Rams two future first-round picks for the right to move from No. 6 to No. 2 overall in that draft.
Technically, no player since Herschel Walker has garnered three first-rounders. That would definitely change with Watson, several evaluators say.
"Oh yeah -- he's worth at least that," one NFC exec said. "The haul would be pretty insane."
NFL front-office personnel are unanimous in this, with several saying additional draft capital might be necessary. It largely depends where the picks in the first round might fall. Many pointed out that if Adams, Ramsey and Tunsil garnered two firsts, Watson should get far more because of the importance of the quarterback position.
When could Watson be dealt?
Trades can't be executed until March 17, the first day of the new league year, but teams can agree in principle to a deal well before then.
A hard deadline might be April 29, the first day of the draft. It makes little sense to do it after, since any pact would likely need to include a first-round pick this year.
Perhaps the Texans could play hardball and push this through the offseason, knowing the draft capital will be there for future years. Maybe Caserio doesn't like the quarterbacks in this year's draft. That also gives Watson more time to change his mind.
But evaluators agree that pre-draft is the time to do it.
What are the potential destinations for Watson?
Acquiring Watson might require not only three first-rounders, but at least one very high pick, multiple evaluators say. That's why those same evaluators consistently point to two teams: the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
Both teams have two things in this year's draft that others don't: a top-three pick, and multiple firsts. New York has the second overall pick and the 23rd pick, acquired in the Adams trade. Miami selects third and 18th overall.
Working with these two teams gives Houston the chance to draft Watson's replacement or take on their respective current starters, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa, if they want one of them.
"If Houston does a deal with one of them, I bet they go after both firsts in this cycle, because that immediately helps them get better in a year they have limited capital," said an AFC personnel man, referring to Houston's lack of picks in the first two rounds this year. "In future years, you don't know what those picks are going to be."
Both teams easily could absorb Watson's contract. The Jets' $69,385,570 in projected cap space is enough for Watson and some free-agent wide receivers to join him. The Dolphins have $24,876,158 in space -- and no state income tax, which Watson has gotten used to playing in Texas.
The Texans could ask teams to throw in star or ascending players to sweeten the deal. The Jets' best asset might be left tackle Mekhi Becton, but GM Joe Douglas probably won't want to part with his first draft pick. Becton looks like a future All-Pro. The Dolphins have interceptions leader Xavien Howard and intriguing young pass-rushers, for starters.
Multiple execs estimate anywhere from 10-15 teams would at least consider giving up major draft capital to get Watson. There are simply too many QB-starved teams out there.
The Carolina Panthers have been linked to Watson if he were to become available, and it's true that they see Watson as a player worth serious draft capital. That doesn't mean they would go all the way. But they are a team to watch. They don't appear completely sold on Teddy Bridgewater and are poised to select a quarterback high in April's draft. They have $14.3 million in cap space, the eighth overall pick and are in the process of getting younger. Watson, a Georgia native, would be getting back to the Southeast.
Bridgewater's three-year, $63 million contract signed last year isn't crippling for Carolina long term. His $17 million salary is guaranteed for this year, but the team could actually save $1 million in cap space by designating Bridgewater a post-June 1 release, according to ESPN's Roster Management System. In 2022, they can walk away with $21 million in cap savings.
Don't laugh, but another sleeper team that a few NFL people have mentioned as a potential fit is the Chicago Bears. There are people in that building who are very high on Watson and they could be looking for a reboot at the position as Mitchell Trubisky's contract expires. GM Ryan Pace could essentially get a mulligan on the 2017 draft. Pace might not have favored Watson then, but he has more, uh, evidence now.
Their $10.2 million cap deficit is a stumbling block, but cutting or restructuring veteran contracts can help. Releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and guard Bobby Massie takes care of $13 million in space.
The Bears pick 20th in the draft and might have to throw in an extra Day 2 pick to compensate for the lack of high standing. Whatever it takes to get Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history.
And for as bad as the NFC East was this year, there's an improving team with $35.4 million in cap space and tons of intriguing young players who could make a move: the Washington Football Team.
"I think they will be involved in the QB sweepstakes in a big way," an NFC exec said. "They know they are close."
Will a trade really happen?
Team officials are torn on this, because trading him makes little sense logistically, but the story isn't going away.
"He just signed his deal, what, five months ago," one AFC exec said. "You've got to think they had plans to stay together long term when they did this. I know things have changed but if the right people get on the phone and cooler heads prevail, maybe they can squash all this."
The hiring of the coach will be significant. Even if Watson isn't returning calls, the Texans know the QB favors Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the job. Bieniemy virtually interviewed with the team Monday and is considered a legitimate candidate.
One NFL personnel exec brought up a concern over giving up so much draft capital and absorbing the financial commitment for a player who appears to be forcing a trade. What if the player turns around and does the same to you, he asked? And he wonders if that would give enough teams pause to halt a deal.
But Watson might have documented behind-the-scenes stories that illustrate an even deeper Texans problem than expected. And Watson, by all accounts, has been a high-character guy throughout his football career.
"It seems like he might just be fed up," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "And if he's willing to dig in on it, there might be no coming back and the team figures it has to do a deal when draft capital is so precious in today's game."