Week 16 of the 2020 NFL schedule is here, and it's an odd one because of the holiday.
The slate has no game on Christmas Eve, a late afternoon game on Christmas Day and a tripleheader on Saturday. There are two marquee matchups on Sunday: The Colts (10-4) play in Pittsburgh against the reeling Steelers (11-3), and the Packers (11-3) play host to the Titans (10-4).
In addition to asking our experts for the biggest potential upsets, we inquired about potential destinations for presumed 2021 No. 1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence and which non-playoff team this season is the strongest candidate to make the postseason next season.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 16?
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Vikings (+7) over Saints. Minnesota is capable of beating or losing to anyone. Just ask the Packers, who got smacked by the Vikings' running game in Week 8. The Saints' passing game still looks a little shaky without Michael Thomas, and the Vikings have a respectable minus-22 point differential in five games against teams with 10 or more wins. Plus, Minnesota has played with too much pride under Mike Zimmer over the years to fall to 6-9.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Vikings (+7) over Saints. I was there the last time these teams played in the Superdome, and Minnesota won it to advance in last season's playoffs. The Saints are the better team, but Drew Brees looked (understandably) rusty Sunday, he's playing on a short week and Minnesota is the more desperate team and has reason to believe it can beat the Saints in New Orleans. A Christmas shocker in the Bayou.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Titans (+3.5) over Packers. I don't think the Titans' lackluster pass rush will give Aaron Rodgers any trouble, but I also don't think the Packers' defense, which is soft against the run, can stop Derrick Henry. So give me the Titans in a must-win upset, stringing together long drives to keep Rodgers off the field.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Raiders (+3.0) over Dolphins. I think the future in Miami is bright, but the present isn't as great as the Dolphins' record makes it seem. Tua Tagovailoa's 57 QBR would rank just 23rd if he qualified, and he's playing behind a porous line that ranks 27th in pass block win rate. FPI considers Miami only the 18th-best team in the league going forward and makes the Raiders a narrow favorite in this contest in Las Vegas.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Rams (+1.5) over the Seahawks. This sounds like a bigger upset than it probably would be given that the Rams just lost to the Jets, but that game was an unquestioned outlier. Be it due to familiarity, scheme or otherwise, the Rams have done as good of a job as anyone in semi-containing Russell Wilson, which will be enough to complete the season sweep.
What should the Packers do with free-agent running back Aaron Jones in the offseason?
Fowler: Placing the franchise tag on Jones is a start, and it creates leverage for Green Bay. The salary-cap losses from the pandemic could drop the running back number well below market, somewhere around $10 million. Use that number as a baseline to secure a long-term deal that gives the team a slight discount but still rewards a top-shelf player. I know, paying running backs can be brutal. But Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook just got paid ... and they still look quite awesome.
Graziano: Wooooooo ... Packers ... I am the Ghost of Running Back Contracts Past. OK, actually I'm Jerry Jones. And I'm here to remind you never to pay the running back. Jones has been a great player for the Packers, but a long-term deal worth more than $12 million a year, which is surely what he'll be looking for after what guys such as Joe Mixon and Kamara and Henry got last offseason, is just about guaranteed to hurt you down the road. It's no coincidence the Packers drafted a running back in the second round with Jones not signed beyond this year. They're always thinking big picture. They let him walk.
Kimes: Part ways unless you can get a deal that's similar in structure to what Tennessee did with Henry (effectively a two-year contract worth about $25 million). Jones is a terrific talent and the Packers' offense leans heavily on the run, but we've seen how big-money RB deals work out in the long run.
Walder: This is easy: Let him walk. Don't pay market rate for running backs, period. It's almost never worth it.
Yates: Attempt to re-sign, but likely let him walk. Of course the team should try to re-sign one of its core players who has provided Green Bay with exceptional value. But the Packers must also draw a line in the sand, which it appears they're prepared to do (Jones recently switched agent representation, which could suggest that previous talks with the Packers did not get close enough to a deal for his liking). Jones himself is a testament to why the team need not overextend for a deal: He was once a fifth-round pick who has blossomed into a star, and with AJ Dillon already waiting in the wings, the team knows it can find value at the position. Jones is exceptional and will get paid by someone.
The Jaguars are now in line to get the No. 1 overall pick. Which team should potential top pick Trevor Lawrence want to join: the Jags or the Jets?
Fowler: Jets. Lawrence turning around the moribund Jets is the story New York fans need and deserve. I'm guessing there's a part of Lawrence that would welcome that challenge. GM Joe Douglas has shown promise with top picks Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims, along with the Jamal Adams trade that netted two first-round picks. Draft capital and cap space have Douglas well-positioned to support Lawrence. And maybe New York can find Lawrence a few extra endorsements to offset that state-tax issue that Jacksonville doesn't have.
Graziano: Jaguars. I've lived in Florida and I've lived in New Jersey, and while I'm a Jersey guy from birth and I love Jersey, that lack of state income tax is no joke! It's not as if your rookie contract comes with a cost-of-living clause. Fact of the matter is, that Jets win Sunday made Lawrence money. If we're talking just football here, they're pretty similar situations. I'm gonna defer my final answer on this until I see who's coaching them.
Kimes: This is actually quite close for me. The Jaguars have a couple of exciting young defensive players and solid skill players such as DJ Chark Jr. and James Robinson; the Jets have building blocks on both sides of the line in Becton and Quinnen Williams. I slightly lean New York because it also has the GM who drafted those building blocks, Joe Douglas, calling the shots for the foreseeable future.
Walder: The Jets. Both teams have a bounty of extra picks, lots of cap space and presumably will have new head coaches. But I think I prefer the Jets' base of young talented players -- Williams, Becton, Mims and Marcus Maye -- around whom they can build. I actually think both teams are pretty good landing spots for a No. 1 pick though.
Yates: Whichever team has the first overall pick. I'm going to sound like a coach right now, but Lawrence should want to go to whichever team winds up with the first pick and prove that he can be the centerpiece of a franchise turnaround. It's competitive nature and he should clamor for the opportunity to be the first pick no matter who has it.
What should the Chargers do with a likely top-five pick in the 2021 draft?
Fowler: Ton of directions they could go. Supporting Justin Herbert is the priority, which makes Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell a safe play. But the Chargers are aging at cornerback and Joey Bosa needs help up front. Trading down to accumulate more volume would help GM Tom Telesco improve his roster expeditiously.
Graziano: Trade down. The best thing to be at the draft is a team with a top-five pick that doesn't need a quarterback. The Chargers, in this scenario, will get calls from teams further down the road that do need quarterbacks, and they should field every single one of them to see whether the offers are worth it. If not, take the offensive player you think best helps Herbert in the short term and especially the long. If that's Oregon tackle Penei Sewell, great, but I can't see him getting past the Bengals.
Kimes: Draft Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell. The Chargers have solid skill players, defensive stars and their quarterback of the future; they just need to do a better job of protecting him up front. If Sewell isn't available, trade down and still try to bolster the offensive line.
Walder: First choice is to trade down if possible. It might be a broken-record analytics recommendation, but it's still true: The market rate for trades down in the draft remains a market inefficiency. The good news is that the second choice is to land a player who helps Herbert, and assuming Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are taken in the top five, one of Sewell, DeVonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase (maybe Kyle Pitts too!) will be available.
Yates: If Sewell is available, they should sprint to the phone and submit their pick immediately. The phenomenal Oregon left tackle (who opted out of the 2020 season) would be a seamless fit along the offensive line, but doesn't figure to drop much further than pick No. 3 (if he even makes it there). However, surrounding Herbert with proper offensive line protection is essential.
Which team likely to miss the playoffs this season would you bet on to make the playoffs in 2021?
Fowler: Las Vegas Raiders. Jon Gruden will break through in Year 4. The Raiders have improved (if slightly) in each of the past three years, especially on offense. Gruden and GM Mike Mayock can spend the offseason getting the defense right. And Las Vegas is the rare team that seems to have a mental edge on the Chiefs.
Graziano: San Francisco 49ers. No team dealt with more injury problems this year. The 49ers still have a crazy-deep roster and Kyle Shanahan as their coach. The key is to figure out quarterback -- is it Jimmy Garoppolo again, or can they upgrade? Either way, as long as they are healthier next year (which is safe to assume), they should be right back in it. They didn't miss by THAT much this year.
Kimes: Houston Texans. Of all the teams missing the playoffs, they have the best quarterback -- and with a new head coach revitalizing the offense and a handful of surprising playmakers on defense, they could return to the dance.
Walder: Dallas Cowboys. Ultimately if they bring back Dak Prescott, which I think they will, the Cowboys will have by far the best quarterback in the division. That alone should put them right back in contention in a weak NFC East.
Yates: Philadelphia Eagles. There are teams on the rise this season that could make a leap, but there are also teams that disappointed this year that should be back next season. There probably will be significant changes in Philly this offseason (the roster will undergo plenty of retooling if the salary cap drops down to $175M), but there is certainly a core of talent, presumably led by Jalen Hurts, that should have this team ready to compete for the division again next year.