Since we last checked in with our QB heroes, the NFL has done little to dissuade the notion that we are watching one of the best and most efficient cumulative seasons of quarterback play in its history in 2020.
Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have produced Total Quarterback Ratings that rank among the highest through 14 weeks since ESPN began compiling QBR in 2006. The league's 65.4% completion percentage is the best ever through that time period, as is its 2.15 touchdown-interception ratio. And deep throws have never been more likely to be completed. Quarterbacks are completing 38.3% of passes that travel at least 20 yards in the air -- the highest rate in 15 seasons of accumulated data.
That's as good of a reason as any to start handing out some late-season quarterback awards, using information from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.
Better than Mahomes Award: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
MVP voters will have their say after the season, but from a statistical standpoint, Rodgers leapfrogged Mahomes in Week 14 to sit atop the NFL's Total QBR rankings. He has done it by throwing a league-high 39 touchdown passes against only four interceptions, the fewest picks by any quarterback who has played the maximum of 13 games this season. Rodgers' completion rate of 69.6%, meanwhile, is the highest through 14 games of any season in his career.
Perhaps most fascinating is the mixed path Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur have followed to get here. Rodgers has thrown the NFL's second-highest percentage of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (30.8%), but he also ranks No. 14 of 33 passers with an average of 8.06 air yards per throw.
In other words, he is throwing more short passes relative to his total dropbacks than any quarterback in the NFL, but his average throw travels farther in the air than most. Why? Rodgers is attempting a disproportionate number of really long throws -- at least 20 yards in the air -- and has completed more of them (30) than any quarterback, including Mahomes (24).
LaFleur's commitment to the running game, or at least to play-action, also has paid off. Rodgers leads the league with 18 play-action touchdown passes. Speaking of play-action ...
King of Play-Action Award: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Through 14 weeks, no quarterback has dropped back more often after a play-action fake than Goff (149). Longtime Goff observers, especially during the tenure of coach Sean McVay, should not be surprised.
Goff led the NFL in play-action dropbacks through 14 games in 2018 and 2019, as well. Why? It seems pretty simple. He's much better in those situations and McVay has pushed their frequency to the extreme. Since the start of the 2018 season, Goff has amassed 519 play-action dropbacks. That's 25.4% more than the next-highest quarterback; Mahomes has 414.
On those play-action plays, Goff has a 70.8 QBR, having thrown 21 touchdowns against nine interceptions. On all other dropbacks, Goff has a 57.9 QBR, with 46 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.
Performing better with play-action certainly isn't a crime. If anything, the Rams' focus with Goff is to be lauded. The essence of coaching is to maximize a team's chances for success. But the splits here, and the Rams' outsized reliance on play-action relative to the rest of the league, is a specific illustration of what most of the intuitively thinking understands: Goff has more limitations than anyone would want from a former No. 1 pick whose contract pays him an average of $33.5 million per season.
Heave Award: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
In the NFL, arm strength is better measured by how well a quarterback throws a deep out to the sideline than how far he can chuck it downfield. It's a more practical application. Rarely will he need to -- or have enough time to -- throw the ball more than 45-50 yards past the line of scrimmage.
With that said, it should be noted that Mayfield cut lose on Monday night with the longest throw we've seen in years. On the final play before halftime against the Ravens, Mayfield stood at his own 40-yard line and threw the ball out of the opposite end zone. The ball traveled 68.1 yards in air distance, from the point of the throw to the point of target, the longest pass in NFL Next Gen Stats' dataset dating to 2017. Pro Football Focus also reported that it was the longest throw it has ever charted, dating back to 2006.
Not Carson Wentz Award: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Let's face it, Hurts entered the season among the least likely backups to overtake a starter. Wentz had the contract, age and history of MVP-caliber play to ride out most rough patches. But the Eagles had no choice by Week 14 and Hurts responded by helping them to a 24-21 victory over the Saints.
Did Hurts perform well in a vacuum? Or was the perception of his performance boosted by comparisons to Wentz? The answer is both. Hurts benefited from 14 designed runs, which were the most called runs in at least 20 seasons for an Eagles quarterback and produced 56 yards. He also scrambled for another 50 yards on four carries and did not commit a turnover.
On the other hand, Hurts showed the kind of rookie indecision that wouldn't necessarily earn him a permanent starting job if Wentz were in a better place. He held the ball for an average of 3.07 seconds before throwing, the second-highest rate during Week 14, and as a result found himself under pressure on 42.4% of his passes. (The league average was 27.9% in Week 14.)
Hurts will continue to start and he is genuinely the best quarterback on the Eagles' roster at the moment, but all performances are best viewed in context.
First Place, Last Place Award: Alex Smith, Washington Football Team
Washington's rise to the top of the NFC East roughly coincided with Smith's ascension to the starting job, a miraculous turn of events considering the catastrophic leg injury he suffered in 2018. But at the end of Week 14, Smith ranked last among 33 qualified passers with a 35.6 QBR. What gives?
A ratio of four touchdown passes to six interceptions in 220 attempts hasn't helped. But the primary explanation has been Washington's exceptionally cautious passing scheme. Smith ranks last in the NFL with an average of 5.4 air yards per throw, nearly half that of the league's leaders. He also has thrown 34.5% of his passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, by far the highest rate in the NFL. (The league average is 22%.)
That approach seems smart for a player whose mobility might have been in question, and clearly, it hasn't held back the team. But if you want to know how a quarterback has led a four-game winning streak with the worst QBR in the league, that's your explanation.
Smith is currently nursing a calf strain, but the team is hopeful he can play in Week 15 against the Seahawks.
Duh Award: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers' performance this season has roughly traced the extent to which Brady has been pressured by opposing defenses. Brady's pressure rate has been 11% in the Buccaneers' eight wins and 27% in their five losses.
It stands to reason that a quarterback under duress will perform worse than one who has a clean pocket. But pressure rate isn't always a function of pass rush or pass protection. Sometimes, it's playcalling and/or route selection. And while it's not a dramatic split, Brady has without question thrown the kind of short passes that he is presumably more comfortable executing.
To analyze scheme, it's instructive to look at the first three quarters of games, before the score dictates playcalling more directly. So in the first three quarters of games the Buccaneers have won, Brady's average pass traveled 7.98 yards in the air. In the same span of their five losses, that average has been 8.72 air yards.
Brady can still throw a deep ball when protected, as he did in Week 14 on a touchdown pass to receiver Scotty Miller that traveled 48 yards in the air. But generally speaking, it makes sense to carefully curate those opportunities. That runs counter to coach Bruce Arians' preference for a consistent downfield-passing offense, but it's almost certainly what works better for Brady at this point in his career.