We're coming down to the home stretch, with just four weeks left in the 2020 NFL season before we get to the playoffs. It's time to figure out who's going home in January, who's getting into the tournament, and who's getting those elusive first-round byes. Remember, there's only one of those per conference this season.
We're going to go through all the teams still in the playoff race and look at how often they make it to the postseason, win a division, or win the No. 1 seed based on Football Outsiders' playoff simulation. We play the season 30,000 times, assigning winners and losers for each game based on probabilities determined by our weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings.
For each team below, we're also looking at remaining strength of schedule based on average DVOA of opponents. We have a quarterback check of how good each team is at the most important position based on ESPN QBR. (Players who don't have enough attempts to be ranked in QBR are listed with what their rank would be if they had enough attempts.) And we've listed an under-the-radar player, good or bad, who will be important to the team's playoff chances over the next four weeks.
A reminder: Football Outsiders' playoff odds will be different than others, including those produced by ESPN's Football Power Index. Teams are in order by our playoff odds, not by current seeding. We've only listed teams with odds of at least 10%, which is why New England, Detroit, and Philadelphia are missing.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Projected playoff chances: Clinched
Projected chances to win No. 1 seed: 51.9%
Remaining strength of schedule: 4.5% DVOA (eighth)
Quarterback check: Patrick Mahomes, 85.7 QBR (first)
Under-the-radar important players: RT Mike Remmers and RT Mitchell Schwartz. The journeyman Remmers surprisingly has a higher pass block win rate this year (91.2%) than the right tackle he replaced, former All-Pro Mitchell Schwartz (81.3%). Can Remmers hold up until Schwartz returns, and can Schwartz return to his past greatness once he is healthy?
Case for: The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and essentially the No. 1 team in the NFL by acclamation, leading in many advanced metrics and most subjective power rankings. They have the best offense in the league, and offense is more predictive than defense. By week-to-week variance, they've been the second-most consistent team in the league behind Chicago.
Case against: Kansas City has a tougher remaining schedule than Pittsburgh, primarily due to a Week 15 game in New Orleans. Football Outsiders DVOA disagrees with conventional wisdom and has the Saints, not the Chiefs, as the No. 1 team -- if Drew Brees is healthy.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Projected playoff chances: 99.9%
Projected chances to win No. 1 seed: 47.3%
Remaining strength of schedule: -1.4% DVOA (16th)
Quarterback check: Ben Roethlisberger, 65.1 QBR (17th)
Under-the-radar important player: WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson does surprisingly poorly in FO metrics, with just -22.8% receiving DVOA, 60th in the league. A league-leading nine drops don't help. With a catch rate of 61% but a short average depth of target of just 7.5 yards, he either needs to get open more often or Pittsburgh needs to use him on deeper routes more often.
Case for: The Steelers have easier remaining opponents. They have the tiebreaker with a better conference record, although they lose that advantage if each team finishes 3-1 and the Chiefs' loss is to New Orleans.
Case against: The offense is struggling, with the running game ranking 31st in DVOA since Week 7. They're the No. 1 defense in the league, but defense is less consistent and predictive than offense. Three of their final four games are on the road.
3. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Projected playoff chances: 97.0%
Projected chances to win AFC East: 88.4%
Remaining strength of schedule: 2.9% (11th)
Quarterback check: Josh Allen, 75.0 QBR (sixth)
Under-the-radar important player: LB Matt Milano. For the past couple of months, Milano was either out of the lineup or playing hurt because of a chest injury. He finally seems to be healthy and the Bills hope his return further drives their defense back toward the heights of the past two years (second and sixth in defensive DVOA in 2018 and 2019). Milano ranked in the top five linebackers last season in both coverage success rate and yards allowed per pass, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Case for: Buffalo has a one-game lead on Miami and holds the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win in Week 2. The rematch is in Buffalo. Overall, the Bills have the easier schedule of the two teams in the final month. Also, the Bills' defense ranks ninth in defensive DVOA since Week 7 after struggling in the first few weeks of the season.
Case against: Random chance, I guess? The Bills are pretty clear favorites to win their division.
4. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
Projected playoff chances: 87.9%
Remaining strength of schedule: -1.2% (15th)
Quarterback check: Baker Mayfield, 70.5 QBR (11th)
Under-the-radar important players: G Joel Bitonio and C JC Tretter. The offensive line has been an important motor driving Cleveland's recent wins, and Bitonio (98.0%) and Tretter (96.8%) rank third and fourth in the league this year in pass block win rate. Bitonio also ranks fifth among guards in run block win rate, and Tretter is 15th among centers.
Case for: The Browns have more wins than the other teams competing for an AFC wild-card chase. They still get to play the Jets and Giants. They have head-to-head wins against Indianapolis and Tennessee. Their poor offensive play this season is extremely concentrated in just a few games: take out the Pittsburgh and Baltimore blowouts, and two high-wind games against Las Vegas and Houston, and Cleveland would rank fourth in the league in offensive DVOA instead of 12th.
Case against: Take out the Pittsburgh and Baltimore blowouts, and the two wind games, and Cleveland's defense is still below average. Their special teams are also below average. And those Pittsburgh and Baltimore blowouts did, in fact, happen. So overall on the season, Cleveland ranks only 23rd in DVOA. The Browns rank 18th in our weighted formula that gives more strength to recent games. Those low rankings explain why we have Cleveland's odds of making the playoffs lower than other odds you might see elsewhere. Also, going 4-0 against the NFC East (if they beat the Giants) sets them up to possibly lose a conference record tiebreaker if the Browns finish 10-6, and they have head-to-head losses against Las Vegas and Baltimore. (A win over Baltimore this week brings their odds close to 100%.)
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
Projected playoff chances: 75.9%
Projected chances to win AFC South: 53.1%
Remaining strength of schedule: -0.7% (14th)
Quarterback check: Philip Rivers, 63.0 QBR (21st)
Under-the-radar important player: RB Nyheim Hines. The Colts throw 25% of passes to running backs, near the top of the league, and Hines ranks second among backs in receiving value, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR metric. He has 47 catches for 384 yards and four touchdowns. All four of the Colts' remaining opponents rank 14th or worse in DVOA when covering running backs in the passing game.
Case for: Based on DVOA, the Colts are the better team in the AFC South. They rank eighth in our weighted ratings compared to Tennessee at No. 12.
Case against: Based on QBR, Rivers is a below-average quarterback this season. Tennessee currently has the tiebreaker in the division, and the Titans will keep that tiebreaker if they beat both Jacksonville and Houston. If the Colts lose the division and get thrown into wild-card tiebreakers, they have a 4-4 conference record and head-to-head losses against both Baltimore and Cleveland.
6. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Projected playoff chances: 75.0%
Projected chances to win AFC South: 46.9%
Remaining strength of schedule: -4.6% (28th)
Quarterback check: Ryan Tannehill, 76.9 QBR (fifth)
Under-the-radar important player: TE Anthony Firkser. Quick, name Tannehill's favorite receiver on third down. No, it's not A.J. Brown (19 targets). And it's not Corey Davis (16 targets). It's the backup tight end Firkser, with 22 targets on third downs this year. Firkser converted for a new set of downs on 10 of those plays, and also moved the chains with two pass interference flags. That's a little below expectations (-11% DVOA), so Firkser will need to be better going forward if he continues to be Tannehill's preferred option to move the chains.
Case for: The Titans currently have the tiebreaker over Indianapolis with a better division record. They have an easier schedule than Indianapolis. Offense is more predictive than defense and special teams, so it's good to be third in offensive DVOA even if you rank 28th on defense and 29th on special teams. The Titans also make a better wild-card possibility than the Colts, because they have a 6-4 conference record and a head-to-head win over Baltimore (with a loss to Cleveland).
Case against: Indianapolis has been a better team overall this year. Three of Tennessee's final four games are on the road.
7. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Projected playoff chances: 64.2%
Projected chances to win AFC East: 11.4%
Remaining strength of schedule: 7.3% (fifth)
Quarterback check: Tua Tagovailoa, 63.9 QBR (would rank 20th)
Under-the-radar important player: TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki has had a quietly productive year, with 39 catches for 537 yards and four touchdowns. He currently ranks fifth in tight end value, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR metric. But he has struggled on third down, with just a 29% catch rate. If Gesicki can do a better job of getting open when it's time to move the sticks, it will help Miami's playoff drive.
Case for: The defense and special teams are strong. Miami doesn't have any head-to-head losses against other wild-card contenders. (Of course, they don't have any head-to-head wins, either.)
Case against: The case against winning the division is that the Bills are a game ahead and have the tiebreaker, and the Dolphins have the tougher remaining schedule. The case against winning the wild card is once again the schedule, especially this week against Kansas City. They also can't count on continuing to win games with big special-teams plays; they need more consistency on offense.
8. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Projected playoff chances: 55.3%
Remaining strength of schedule: -16.7% (32nd)
Quarterback check: Lamar Jackson, 63.1 QBR (20th)
Under-the-radar important players: RG/RT Tyre Phillips and RG Ben Powers. A third-round rookie, Phillips started at right guard in the first half of the season before a sprained ankle put him on short-term injured reserve. He has since returned, but the Ravens kept Powers in the right guard spot instead for the past two weeks, using Phillips instead to spell D.J. Fluker at right tackle. Both players have an important role in that Baltimore running game that drives the Ravens' offense. Powers has a much better run block win rate in roughly one-third of a season (79.8%) than Phillips had in roughly half a season (66.2%).
Case for: That strength of schedule is the biggest reason to believe in the Ravens. After this week's game in Cleveland, they have home games with the Jaguars and Giants, and then a game in Cincinnati. That makes this week's game hugely important: The Ravens make the playoffs 80% of the time if they beat Cleveland, and only 25% of the time if they lose.
Case against: The Ravens are fading, with the biggest difference in the league between total-season DVOA (14.5%, eighth) and weighted DVOA (8.5%, 11th). The passing game is unimpressive, just 22nd in DVOA even if we remove the game where so many players (including Jackson) were out because of COVID-19. If they lose to Cleveland, they'll really have to win out to make the playoffs.
9. Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
Projected playoff chances: 41.7%
Remaining strength of schedule: -4.2% (27th)
Quarterback check: Derek Carr, 72.6 QBR (8th)
Under-the-radar important player: WR Henry Ruggs III. Ruggs can be a game-breaker; just witness his 46-yard touchdown to beat the Jets with seconds remaining. But overall, his rookie season has been a bit disappointing. Ruggs' total of 396 yards is far behind other rookies such as Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins, and he comes out as a little bit below average by Football Outsiders' DVOA (at -2.8%). Ruggs also hasn't had a game yet with more than five targets. The Raiders need Ruggs to be better and a bigger part of their offense to be more dangerous in the final month of the season.
Case for: Las Vegas has a head-to-head victory over Cleveland and the schedule means the Raiders hold their own playoff destiny in their hands: they can also get head-to-head victories over fellow wild-card contenders Indianapolis and Miami. Three of their final four games are at home.
Case against: By Football Outsiders metrics, they're currently the weakest team in the AFC playoff race, just 22nd in weighted DVOA.
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints (10-2)
Projected playoff chances: Clinched
Projected chances to win No. 1 seed: 64.4%
Remaining strength of schedule: 1.3% (13th)
Quarterback check: Drew Brees, 81.0 QBR (third)
Under-the-radar important player: DE Trey Hendrickson. A relatively unknown fourth-year veteran, Hendrickson is tied for third in the NFL with 10.5 sacks, and he leads the league in sacks per snap with a sack every 45.6 snaps. The Saints don't lead the league in sacks, but when you adjust for how many passes they've faced and which opponents they've had, they rank first in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate.
Case for: DVOA has New Orleans as the clear best team in the league. The Saints rank eighth on offense (fourth if we count only games with Brees); second on defense (third if we take out the game where Denver didn't have a quarterback); and seventh on special teams.
Case against: That game against Kansas City in Week 15. The Saints have a head-to-head loss to the Packers so they have to finish a game ahead to get the No. 1 seed. Also, what if Brees isn't back soon, or worse, what if he's not back at 100 percent?
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Projected playoff chances: 99.9%
Projected chances to win No. 1 seed: 29.5%
Remaining strength of schedule: -3.4% (24th)
Quarterback check: Aaron Rodgers, 84.6 QBR (second)
Under-the-radar important player: OL Billy Turner. Turner is often criticized by film mavens but beloved by ESPN's pass block win rate metric. He had the highest PBWR as a tackle this year, 95.2%, playing at both left and right tackle. In Week 13, he moved back inside to right guard. He'll need to hold up against Green Bay's remaining schedule, including strong interior pass rushers in Carolina and Chicago.
Case for: The Packers have the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans and the easier remaining schedule, being clearly favored in each of their remaining games. Matt LaFleur might be the best head coach in the league this year when it comes to those important fourth-down decisions.
Case against: New Orleans has been the better, more well-rounded team this year and should be getting Drew Brees back soon.
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
Projected playoff chances: 99.9%
Projected chances to win No. 1 seed: 4.5%
Projected chances to win NFC West: 67.7%
Remaining strength of schedule (three games): -6.4% (30th)
Quarterback check: Jared Goff, 61.5 QBR (23rd)
Under-the-radar important player: CB Darious Williams. You know how good Jalen Ramsey is, but do you know what kind of season Williams is having? Based on Sports Info Solutions charting, Williams has given up only 5.5 yards per target, with a 43% completion rate (prior to Thursday's win over the Patriots). The Rams rank second in DVOA when covering the opponent's No. 2 receiver.
Case for: The Rams are the best team in the NFC West, according to DVOA, ranking fifth in weighted DVOA with the Seahawks only 10th. The Rams currently have tiebreakers over Seattle: a head-to-head win, plus a better conference record. Even if they lose the division, a wild-card spot is pretty much assured.
Case against: The rematch with Seattle is in Seattle, and the whole division probably comes down to that game. If the Rams win that rematch, they take the division in 96% of our simulations. If they lose that rematch, they take the division in only 30% of our simulations.
4. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Projected playoff chances: 97.7%
Projected chances to win NFC West: 31.1%
Remaining strength of schedule: -4.2% (26th)
Quarterback check: Russell Wilson, 70.5 QBR (13th)
Under-the-radar important player: LT Duane Brown. You don't hear a lot about the Seattle offensive line, but Brown has held things down all year. Sports Info Solutions has charged him with only nine blown blocks, and only one led to a sack. He ranks second in pass block win rate as a tackle this season (94.7%). Brown also has just one penalty so far this year.
Case for: The Seahawks get to host the rematch with the Rams in Week 16. Even if they lose the division, a wild-card spot is pretty much assured unless they lose out -- and that would include losing to the Jets this week.
Case against: The Rams have been a better team this year. The Seattle passing game in particular is having problems: fourth in DVOA before the Week 6 bye, but 14th in DVOA since then.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Projected playoff chances: 92.0%
Remaining strength of schedule: -6.3% (29th)
Quarterback check: Tom Brady, 69.6 QBR (14th)
Under-the-radar important player: LT Donovan Smith. Protecting Brady's blind side, Smith is tied for third most in the league with 27 blown blocks, by Sports Info Solutions charting. He ranks 47th among tackles in pass block win rate. He also is tied for second among offensive linemen with nine penalties (including those declined). A smoother performance over the last month would go a long way toward helping the Bucs break their playoff drought.
Case for: Football Outsiders DVOA says the Buccaneers have been a much better team than conventional wisdom believes. They're fourth right now in weighted DVOA, in part because they rank third in schedule strength so far this season. That schedule gets much easier the rest of the way, although the Atlanta Falcons (whom the Bucs play twice) could get frisky.
Case against: The main case against the Bucs is just that they have lost some close games to other good teams in recent weeks, so they must be struggling. But with the exception of that horrible game against New Orleans in Week 9, they really aren't struggling as much as people think. Losing a close game to a good team usually still means you're a good team.
6. New York Giants (5-7)
Projected playoff chances: 52.6%
Projected chances to win NFC East: 51.7%
Remaining strength of schedule: -2.3% (22nd)
Quarterback check: Daniel Jones, 66.2 QBR (15th)
Under-the-radar important player: LT Andrew Thomas. Thomas led the league with 20 blown blocks in the first five weeks of the season. Sports Info Solutions charting had no other lineman with more than 15. But in the past six games, since Week 7, Thomas has only 11 blown blocks. And he's sixth among tackles in run block win rate over that period. The Giants need to get more of this Thomas -- average on pass blocking, excellent on run blocking -- and make sure he doesn't revert to the really bad Thomas we saw in September.
Case for: The Giants swept Washington, giving them the tiebreaker. They also have a small strength of schedule advantage over Washington, in part because our numbers see Cleveland (Week 15) as slightly below average. Three of their last four games are at home.
Case against: Washington has been the better team this year by DVOA. Daniel Jones is still limited by a hamstring issue and might not play Sunday against Arizona.
7. Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
Projected playoff chances: 46.2%
Remaining strength of schedule: -2.2% (21st)
Quarterback check: Kyler Murray, 71.0 QBR (10th)
Under-the-radar important player: WR Christian Kirk. All the attention paid to DeAndre Hopkins has opened things up for Kirk to make a big splash. Instead, he has made more of a medium splash. Kirk has 35 catches for 498 yards with six touchdowns but has been fairly average based on Football Outsiders DVOA. He has the opportunity for big games the next two weeks as both the Giants and Eagles give up more yardage to No. 2 receivers than to No. 1 receivers.
Case for: The Cardinals have a one-game advantage on San Francisco and Chicago, and a significant schedule advantage over Minnesota.
Case against: Arizona has really been just kind of mediocre this year, ranking 13th in DVOA overall. The offense is having problems, going from 6.1% DVOA (14th) before the Week 8 bye to -2.5% DVOA (17th) since the bye.
8. Washington Football Team (5-7)
Projected playoff chances: 45.8%
Projected chances to win NFC East: 43.5%
Remaining strength of schedule: -1.5% (17th)
Quarterback check: Alex Smith, 40.8 QBR (32nd)
Under-the-radar important player: CB Jimmy Moreland. Moreland was a seventh-round selection in 2019 and moved into the Washington lineup this year as the nickelback. He has surprisingly good numbers, according to Sports Info Solutions charting, giving up just 4.6 yards per target with a 51% completion rate. He'll be particularly important this week with the way the 49ers use receivers in the slot to get yards after the catch.
Case for: Washington is up to 15th overall in our weighted DVOA ratings. Its defense, ranked fourth overall, is much better than any unit the Giants can put on the field. Since a Week 8 bye, Washington's offense has improved slightly from 29th in DVOA to 26th in DVOA.
Case against: Washington lost twice to the Giants, so New York has the tiebreaker. Washington has a tougher remaining schedule than the Giants because our numbers see San Francisco and Carolina both as teams that are better than their win-loss records.
9. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Projected playoff chances: 27.3%
Remaining strength of schedule: 10.8% (third)
Quarterback check: Kirk Cousins, 61.7 QBR (22nd)
Under-the-radar important player: RT Brian O'Neill. Football Outsiders has Minnesota run-blocking No. 1 in the league by our adjusted line yards metric, and a big part of that is O'Neill, who leads all tackles with 81.2% run block win rate.
Case for: The Vikings currently hold the No. 7 spot by virtue of a better record in common games with Arizona. They have a head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago and get the rematch at home (Week 15). The Vikings are dragged down in our ratings by No. 31 special teams, and bad special-teams play is less predictive than bad offensive or defensive play.
Case against: The Minnesota schedule is very difficult because our numbers have New Orleans and Tampa Bay as two of the best teams in the league. Three of the last four Vikings games are on the road. Minnesota's 5-1 record since the Week 7 bye is most due to schedule than playing better football; Minnesota is lower in weighted DVOA (which gives more strength to recent games) than in full-season DVOA.
10. Chicago Bears (5-7)
Projected playoff chances: 14.6%
Remaining strength of schedule: -1.7% (19th)
Quarterback check: Nick Foles, 43.9 QBR (31st) or Mitchell Trubisky, 51.7 QBR (would be 26th)
Under-the-radar important player: ILB Roquan Smith. Khalil Mack gets the headlines, but Smith might be the heart of the Chicago defense. He's tied for the league lead with 26 defeats, a stat that combines turnovers, tackles for a loss, and plays to prevent third- or fourth-down conversions. Smith is also renowned for his pass coverage, and he's tied for the league lead with 22 pass tackle stops: pass tackles prevent the receiver from gaining enough yardage for a successful play by our baselines.
Case for: Despite six straight losses, the Bears really aren't a different team now than they were earlier in the season. Their full-season and weighted DVOA ratings are pretty much equal. If the Bears have switched to Trubisky as their starting quarterback, he has been better than Foles this season. If Tampa Bay falls apart and ends up tied with the Bears, Chicago has a head-to-head win.
Case against: No matter who the quarterback is, the Chicago offense is lousy and ranks just 27th in DVOA. The Bears have a head-to-head loss against the Vikings, and have to play the rematch in Minnesota.
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Projected playoff chances: 13.1%
Remaining strength of schedule: -2.2% (20th)
Quarterback check: Nick Mullens, 48.8 QBR (29th)
Under-the-radar important player: DE Kerry Hyder Jr. Now on his third NFL team, the veteran Hyder is nearing a personal record with 7.5 sacks (his record is 8.0) and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 29 pressures, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. He's an important part of how the 49ers' defense has at least somewhat made up for injuries to players such as Nick Bosa and Dee Ford.
Case for: Kyle Shanahan is still the head coach. Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle might still come back from their injuries (but probably not).
Case against: The offense has been poor over the past few weeks, 29th in DVOA since Week 8. Most of their injured players are not coming back. The 49ers probably won't get to play any more home games this season. They already have a head-to-head loss against Arizona and a 3-5 conference record is worse than any other wild-card contender.