Not all first-round draft picks work out. That is perhaps most true with the quarterback position. From 2011 to 2019, there were 28 quarterbacks selected on Day 1. Twelve of them never saw a second contract with the team that drafted them, while two are set to join that group and two more received an extension but were still moved on from shortly thereafter. And of course, the jury is still out on a few of the other ones.
So what happened? We looked at those 16 signal-callers and why their teams cut bait. How long did it take teams to move on? We went back to 2011 as a starting spot because that's when the current structure for the entry-level contract was established with the collective bargaining agreement. And we looked specifically at first-round quarterbacks because those are the calculated hefty investments -- both financially and in terms of draft capital and franchise direction -- whereas Day 2 and Day 3 QB picks are more likely dart throws and gambles.
We also tried to make sense of when teams tend to give up and cut their losses on a Round 1 quarterback, though every situation is different. And lastly, we took a look at four more former Round 1 picks who could be the next ones to be ditched -- including a pair of top-10 picks currently playing in New York -- and why.
Jump to draft class:
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
Drafted: No. 8, 2011
The move: Benched, not re-signed
Starts before the Titans cut bait: 23
Why the team moved on: Locker's frequent bout with injuries kept him from living up to the expectations that come with being the No. 8 pick in the draft. The Titans finished no better than 7-9 with Locker as their quarterback. Tennessee didn't pick up Locker's fifth-year option before the 2014 season, and he briefly lost his job to rookie Zach Mettenberger later in that campaign. Rather than enter free agency, Locker retired in 2015, saying he lost his passion for football. -- Turron Davenport
What happened next: The Titans finished 2-14 in Locker's final season and selected Marcus Mariota with the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft. Mariota took over as the starter and led the Titans to 9-7 records in 2016, 2017 and 2018 before suffering a similar fate. -- Davenport
Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars
Drafted: No. 10, 2011
The move: Traded
Starts before the Jaguars cut bait: 27
Why the team moved on: Gabbert went 5-22 as a starter and threw 22 touchdown passes and 24 interceptions. He didn't have much talent to work with, and that undoubtedly played some role in his struggles. But he was also skittish in the pocket and battled various injuries. -- Mike DiRocco
What happened next: GM Dave Caldwell got a sixth-round pick from San Francisco for Gabbert in 2014. Gabbert spent three years with the 49ers (4-9 as a starter, with 16 TDs and 13 INTs) and also played a year in Arizona and Tennessee before ending up in Tampa Bay behind Tom Brady in 2020. The Jaguars went with Chad Henne for much of the 2013 season and then drafted Blake Bortles in 2014. -- DiRocco
Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings
Drafted: No. 12, 2011
The move: Benched, not re-signed
Starts before the Vikings cut bait: 36
Why the team moved on: As a rookie, Ponder took over six weeks into the season after the Vikings benched Donovan McNabb -- but he found himself in the same predicament in a 34-28 loss to Detroit seven weeks later for being too loose with the ball. He started the final three games of the season but played terribly. The QB dealt with rib, shoulder and elbow injuries throughout his career in Minnesota and never lived up to the expectations that came with being drafted 12th overall.
After being a part of a 10-6 finish and wild-card berth in 2012 (thanks in large part to Adrian Peterson's MVP season), Ponder won just two games over his final two seasons. His play in 2013 was the nail in the coffin. With a new coaching staff coming in for the 2014 season, Ponder's career as a starter in Minnesota was over. -- Courtney Cronin
What happened next: The Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater in 2014, and Ponder was relegated to third string. Matt Cassel started the first three games of the season in 2014 before suffering an injury and was replaced by Bridgewater indefinitely. Ponder played only two more times in Minnesota after Bridgewater was injured in Week 4 and had to miss the following game on a short week. In his last appearance, Ponder was sacked six times and completed 50% of his passes for 222 yards and two interceptions in a 42-10 loss to the Packers.
He became a free agent in 2015 and spent the last two years of his career bouncing from Oakland to Denver to San Francisco as a backup. Bridgewater led the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015 and was named to the Pro Bowl but sustained a serious knee injury that nearly ended his career the following preseason. -- Cronin
Robert Griffin, Washington Football Team
Drafted: No. 2, 2012
The move: Benched, cut
Starts before Washington cut bait: 35
Why the team moved on: Former coach Jay Gruden was never sold on Griffin and didn't feel he could be a pocket passer -- but also believed he didn't want to use his legs as he had in his rookie year. In 20 combined games during the 2013 and '14 seasons, Griffin threw a combined 20 touchdowns to 18 interceptions and was sacked 71 times. Coaches felt he did not handle protection calls well. But injuries also altered his game. -- John Keim
What happened next: Kirk Cousins took over in 2015 and, while not dynamic, was effective for the next three seasons. He threw a combined 99 touchdown passes to 55 interceptions and helped lead Washington to an NFC East title his first season as the starter. But he also had a penchant for crushing late-game turnovers; some weeks he played like a fringe top-10 passer, while some weeks he looked more like he belonged in the bottom third. He then signed a lucrative free-agent deal with Minnesota.
Griffin, meanwhile, started five games with the Browns in 2016 before settling into a backup role with the Ravens. -- Keim
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Drafted: No. 8, 2012
The move: Traded
Starts before the Dolphins cut bait: 88
Why the team moved on: It had been seven years, and Tannehill had shown an inability to consistently stay healthy or elevate the Dolphins to the next level. He was a decent QB throughout his Dolphins tenure but could never lift flawed teams above their own limitations. After Miami decided to fire Adam Gase in 2018, it realized a rebuild was the best course -- which left no place for Tannehill in Miami. Despite signing him to a big $77 million extension in 2015, the Dolphins traded Tannehill in 2019.
Tannehill went 42-46 as a starter with a 62.8% completion rate, 20,434 passing yards, 123 touchdowns and 75 interceptions. But he appeared in no playoff games. He was good enough to start in Miami but not good enough to compete for a Super Bowl title with the team. -- Cameron Wolfe
What happened next: The Dolphins spent a difficult 2019 season making due with a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen at QB. The Rosen experiment failed miserably, but Fitzpatrick etched his place in Dolphins history by leading the team on a valiant second-half resurgence, and the Dolphins were still able to select its franchise QB in the following draft with Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5 overall.
Tagovailoa is 3-1 so far as a starter, providing the Dolphins more promise than they've had over the past decade. And though Tannehill is having success in Tennessee, many would agree this has worked out well for Miami. -- Wolfe
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
Drafted: No. 22, 2012
The move: Benched, cut
Starts before the Browns cut bait: 20
Why the team moved on: Weeden's career was marred by multiple front-office and coaching changes in Cleveland. He was 28 years old when he got drafted by the Browns, having previously played pro baseball. Weeden never got going with Cleveland, throwing more interceptions (26) than TDs (23) before losing his job to Jason Campbell during his second season. -- Jake Trotter
What happened next: Weeden bounced around the league as a backup until 2018, mostly with the Cowboys and Texans. The Browns continued to cycle through QBs, as well, before eventually drafting Baker Mayfield at No. 1 overall in 2018. -- Trotter
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Drafted: No. 16, 2013
The move: Benched, not re-signed
Starts before the Bills cut bait: 17
Why the team moved on: Manuel had his moments as a rookie -- both good and bad -- but was benched one week after throwing a pick-six to J.J. Watt in a one-score loss to the Texans, four games into his second season. He never recovered from the benching, later admitting that his confidence took a huge hit after the team seemingly lost faith in him just 14 games into his career. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
What happened next: The Bills replaced him with Kyle Orton in 2014 and Tyrod Taylor the year after. With a new coaching staff in place by 2016, Buffalo declined to pick up his fifth-year option, and he signed with the Raiders in 2017, eventually retiring two years later. -- Louis-Jacques
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Drafted: No. 3, 2014
The move: Benched, cut
Starts before the Jaguars cut bait: 73
Why the team moved on: Bortles had too many turnovers (an NFL-high 94 from 2014 to '18) and maddening inconsistency. After a career year in 2017 to help the Jaguars get to the AFC title game, Bortles regressed badly in '18, and the team never knew what it would get from him each week until after the first two drives. If it was "Good Bortles," the Jaguars had a chance. But more often than not, it was "Bad Bortles" -- and it could get ugly. -- DiRocco
What happened next: Bortles signed a one-year deal with the Rams to back up Jared Goff in 2019, but the team didn't bring him back in 2020. Bortles was unemployed until Denver called after Drew Lock's injury in Week 2 of this season. The Broncos cut him after Lock returned but brought him back on the practice squad.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, believed they had fixed the position by signing free agent Nick Foles, but he got hurt in the 2019 opener and rookie Gardner Minshew II captured the city's heart in Foles' absence. Foles wasn't good when he returned, and Minshew regained the job and was given this season to prove he can be the long-term starter. He's currently out with a thumb injury, and rookie Jake Luton may end up holding onto the job even when Minshew is cleared to return. Jacksonville will likely again be in the mix for an early-pick QB in 2021. -- DiRocco
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
Drafted: No. 22, 2014
The move: Cut
Starts before the Browns cut bait: 8
Why the team moved on: Johnny Football's Cleveland tenure was plagued by struggles both on and off the field. Manziel spent 10 weeks in rehab after his rookie season, then was indicted by a Dallas grand jury on a misdemeanor charge stemming from a domestic violence complaint by his ex-girlfriend. Manziel started only eight games for the Browns and completed just 57% of his passes before they cut him. -- Trotter
What happened next: Manziel never played a down in the NFL again, though he had stints in the CFL and now-defunct AAF. And as mentioned earlier, the Browns went on to draft Mayfield to be their franchise QB. -- Trotter
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
Drafted: No. 32, 2014
The move: Not re-signed
Starts before the Vikings cut bait: 28
Why the team moved on: Bridgewater suffered one of the most gruesome injuries by a pro athlete in recent memory when he dislocated his left knee and tore his ACL while dropping back to pass in practice on Aug. 30, 2016. It took him nearly 15 months of rehabilitation before he was medically cleared to return to practice in November 2017, where he served as Case Keenum's backup from Weeks 10-17.
After Minnesota's season ended in the NFC championship, the Vikings didn't get the news they wanted about Bridgewater's knee from his season-ending physical. "The reports I'd get back from the medical people weren't as positive as I was about it," coach Mike Zimmer said in March 2018. "That's kind of how it came down is that his knee wasn't as ... he still has some recovery to do. When I watched him in practice he moved well, I didn't see limitations, but from what I was told, there was some." Zimmer said the information he received about Bridgewater's knee was concerning, "a long-term thing, to be nervous about." -- Cronin
What happened next: The Vikings let all three quarterbacks on the roster in 2017 -- Bridgewater, Keenum and Sam Bradford -- walk in free agency, and they signed Kirk Cousins to a three-year, fully guaranteed deal worth $84 million. Bridgewater signed with the Jets on a one-year contract with only $500,000 in guaranteed money. He spent the 2018 preseason with the Jets before being traded to New Orleans to serve as Drew Brees' backup. After two seasons with the Saints, including a stretch where he filled in for an injured Brees, Bridgewater signed a three-year, $63 million contract to become the starting QB of the Panthers in March 2020. -- Cronin
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Drafted: No. 1, 2015
The move: Not re-signed
Starts before the Buccaneers cut bait: 70
Why the team moved on: The Bucs loved Winston's work ethic, but he could not cut down on the interceptions that were a problem in his college years at Florida State. He threw 30 picks in his final season in Tampa Bay in 2019. The Bucs still considered re-signing Winston this offseason if they failed to land free agent Tom Brady. According to sources, he was their third choice, behind Brady and Teddy Bridgewater. -- Jenna Laine
What happened next: The Bucs signed Brady, and Winston signed on to become a backup with the Saints behind Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. It's a one-year deal with a base value of $1.1 million, but incentives could push it to $3.4 million. The hope is that he can do what Bridgewater did: regain a starting role down the road after learning under Brees and Sean Payton. -- Laine
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Drafted: No. 2, 2015
The move: Benched, not re-signed
Starts before the Titans cut bait: 61
Why the team moved on: The Titans were looking for a more consistent playmaker at quarterback. Mariota got off to a promising start but wasn't the same after suffering a fractured fibula in 2016. He struggled to pull the trigger on throws at times, even drawing a "Let it rip" comment from coach Mike Vrabel in training camp last year. Things hit rock bottom when the Titans were shut out in Week 6 of 2019 against the Broncos, causing Vrabel to pull Mariota in the third quarter. -- Davenport
What happened next: Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter in Week 7, and the Titans' offense took off. They went 7-3 and made a push all the way to the AFC Championship Game. Tannehill finished the season leading the NFL in passer rating, completion percentage and yards per completion, and the Titans signed Tannehill to a four-year, $118 million contract. Mariota signed on with the Raiders as a backup to Derek Carr. -- Davenport
Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos
Drafted: No. 26, 2016
The move: Cut
Starts before the Broncos cut bait: 4
Why the team moved on: The short answer is the Broncos gave him not one, but two, chances to beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting job, and Lynch not only couldn't do it, but he didn't even make it close enough for the Broncos to simply hand him the keys anyway. He routinely showed a power arm in practice, but his teammates believed Lynch needed to prepare more and work harder. Denver wouldn't have known what he could be as a player until he invested the time in the job. -- Jeff Legwold
What happened next: Lynch was finally released, just before the start of the 2018 season, when Case Keenum was set to be the starter. The Broncos claimed Kevin Hogan off waivers to the be the team's No. 3 quarterback, instead of Lynch. Lynch has since had stints on various practice squads around the league, and the Broncos looked to Drew Lock -- a second-round pick in 2019 -- as their guy under center. -- Legwold
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Drafted: No. 2, 2017
The move: Benched
Starts before the Bears cut bait: 44
Why the team moved on: Coach Matt Nagy has seen enough. The third-year Bears head coach and Trubisky never seemed to mesh on the field, and Trubisky's poor performance over three quarters against Atlanta in Week 3 opened the door for Nagy to pull the plug.
Chicago already declined Trubisky's fifth-year option back in May, an unspoken acknowledgement that the team committed a catastrophic error when they selected Trubisky ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2017. Moving on from Trubisky was only a matter of time. And even if Trubisky starts again this season -- maybe even in Week 12 -- in place of an injured (and underperforming) Nick Foles, the team's opinion of Trubisky as its starter going forward is pretty clear. -- Jeff Dickerson
What happened next: Foles took over and has fared no better than Trubisky, who returned for one play in Week 8 and suffered a shoulder injury. Foles is likely to finish out the year -- though the extent of his Week 10 injury is unclear -- but the outlook beyond 2020 is bleak. Foles is the only Chicago quarterback under contract next year, and the Bears will not have a bad enough record to draft in the top five in 2021. The Bears are stuck, and have been at quarterback since Sid Luckman retired in 1950. Trubisky, meanwhile, will be a free agent. -- Dickerson
Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals
Drafted: No. 10, 2018
The move: Traded
Starts before the Cardinals cut bait: 13
Why the team moved on: The Cardinals essentially cleared house after the disastrous 2018 season, starting with the firing of head coach Steve Wilks. The moment Arizona hired Kliff Kingsbury, Rosen's future with the team was in doubt. It was solidified when Arizona drafted Kyler Murray, pairing Kingsbury with the quarterback he wanted to run his version of the Air Raid. -- Josh Weinfuss
What happened next: The Cardinals went from 3-13 overall in 2018 (Rosen's rookie year, in which he was 3-10) to the first overall pick in 2019, when they drafted Murray. That led to a 5-10-1 season in 2019 and then a 6-4 record thus far in 2020.
Rosen, on the other hand, has yet to find his place in the NFL. He was traded to the Dolphins, for whom he went 0-3 as a starter in 2019 while getting benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6 of last season. Then, in what must've felt like a bad dream or at least deja vu, Rosen was cut in September after the Dolphins drafted Tua Tagovailoa. A few days after the Dolphins cut him, he was signed to Tampa Bay's practice squad. -- Weinfuss
Dwayne Haskins Jr., Washington Football Team
Drafted: No. 15, 2019
The move: Benched
Starts before Washington cut bait: 11
Why the team moved on: Haskins' inexperience coupled with what Washington perceived as weak preparation habits during the week, a similar complaint that was heard by the previous coaching staff. If that doesn't improve, his days in Washington are numbered. Haskins started the first four games and threw four touchdowns and three interceptions, but he also had the NFL's worst Total QBR at 30.2. He was benched for Kyle Allen and remained on the sideline when Alex Smith stepped in after an Allen injury. Haskins really needed a normal offseason to get a lot of on-field work in a new offense. -- Keim
What happened next: Washington started Allen for the next four games following Haskins' benching, but he dislocated his ankle and is likely done for the season. Smith then took over and has thrown for 881 yards in his past three games combined. He will continue starting this year; the offense is moving and he's playing well, even at age 36 coming off a broken fibula and tibia. It's a remarkable comeback. Both Haskins' future and Washington's longer-term future, however, are unclear. -- Keim
HOW LONG WERE THE QUARTERBACKS GIVEN?
No situation is the same, and a lot of factors -- both on the field and off -- go into the decision to part ways with a quarterback. Still, since 2011, the 16 quarterbacks who were removed from the starting role by their draft teams were afforded an average of 35 starts to prove themselves. That's more than two season's worth of games. The median fell slightly below that at 28, and six of the quarterbacks were given between 20 and 40 starts to do enough to keep the job.
The fewest number of starts were Lynch's four with Denver, followed by Manziel's eight with Cleveland. The longest leash was given to Tannehill in Miami, where he started 88 games over six seasons. Of quarterbacks who only played on their rookie deal, Winston had the most extensive tryout period, seeing 70 starts.
As you might expect, top-10 pick investments were given a longer runway. Those nine had an average of 48 starts before their teams cut bait, while those drafted from No. 11 to No. 32 failed to make a statement in an average of 18 starts before their time as the starter ended.
Again, it is a small sample size, and every quarterback dealt with different schemes, coaching staffs, team situations, draft capital and expectations. But these are useful benchmarks when looking at most recent first-round quarterbacks and the timeframe for earning long-term confidence.
WHO MIGHT BE NEXT?
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Darnold's chances of returning to New York in 2021 fade with each loss. It's all about draft position. With the first or second pick in the 2021 draft, the Jets would be in position to select Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, the presumptive top two picks. In that case, they would probably trade Darnold and start over with Lawrence or Fields.
Darnold is only 11-21 as a starter and ranks 36th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR since 2018, his rookie year. The physical talent is there, but he hasn't reached his potential for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to decision making, sloppy mechanics and a lack of weapons around him. Only 23 years old, he still has growth potential. Under ordinary circumstances, he'd be back for a fourth season. But the chance to draft an elite prospect is an extraordinary opportunity. -- Rich Cimini
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
It would take a lot for the Giants to move on from Jones after two seasons. For there to be any chance at this point, he'd have to have a disastrous final month and the Giants would have to be looking at a high draft pick. Otherwise, the Giants have seen enough positives from Jones -- he works hard, can make every throw and does damage with his legs -- to think he's their answer. They truly believe that they need to fill in the right pieces around him.
Of course, if they somehow ended up with a top-two pick and Jones crumbled down the stretch with his turnover problems resurfacing, the equation would change. As it stands right now, the Giants have nearly as good a shot of making the playoffs (23.9%) as they do of earning a top-five pick in the draft (28.7%), per ESPN's Football Power Index. -- Jordan Raanan
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
It's very unlikely. At the midway point, general manager Andrew Berry declined to publicly commit to picking up Mayfield's fifth-year option or signing him to an extension in the offseason. But the Browns focused this past offseason on better supporting Mayfield, who is improved from last year, despite some up-and-down moments. They were going to give him every opportunity to prove he's the franchise quarterback. And with a record of 7-3, nothing has changed at this point. -- Trotter
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are boxed in when it comes to Wentz. He leads the league in interceptions (14) and sacks (40), is 32nd in completion percentage (58.4) and is making mistakes unacceptable for a rookie, let alone a fifth-year franchise quarterback. And the prospect of turning the team over to Jalen Hurts, the Eagles' second-round pick this past April, is intriguing.
But Wentz carries a dead-cap hit of $60 million in 2021 and $39.5 million in the 2022 offseason, making him very difficult to move on from. Unlike the other three quarterbacks named here, Wentz has a second deal with his team. The Eagles have to find a way to make it work, and any switch to Hurts this season would have to be temporary. -- Tim McManus
Read more on looming QB questions ahead of the 2021 draft and which teams might be in the mix to draft one.