As we pass the midway mark of the 2020 NFL season, some teams are more likely to have a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL draft than to have a playoff berth by season's end (though the Miami Dolphins could have both, thanks to the Houston Texans). In fact, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives 12 NFL teams a better than 45% chance of ending up with a selection in the top 10 come next April.
So what can those 12 teams look forward to if they do end up with a high draft pick? We asked our NFL Nation reporters two big questions about their teams' likely approach to the draft, including one about the quarterback situation and looming decisions to be made. Which teams could be in the hunt for a new QB if they lock in a top pick? And what weaknesses should each team think about addressing?
Here is an early look at what Round 1's top picks might bring, starting with the odds-on favorite to land the No. 1 selection. (Note: Teams are ordered by descending percentage chance to have a top-10 pick.)
Draft rankings: Kiper | McShay
Jump to:
ATL | CAR | CIN | DAL | DEN
DET | JAX | LAC | MIA
NYG | NYJ | WSH
New York Jets
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 99.9%
Projected draft slot: 1
Get out your crystal ball: As it stands, there is a ___ % chance the Jets move on from Sam Darnold and draft a quarterback.
There's probably an 80% chance they draft a quarterback to replace Darnold, and that's based on the rough odds of them landing a top-two pick. (There's a 61.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, per ESPN's FPI.) The Jets like Darnold's upside despite his struggles, but it would be hard to pass up Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. There's also a significant salary-cap benefit to starting over with a rookie contract. -- Rich Cimini
The Jets also have the Seattle Seahawks' first-rounder. Which positions stick out as their biggest needs to hit on Day 1?
They have many needs on both sides of the ball, but the ones that could be in play at the bottom of Round 1 are edge rusher, cornerback, wide receiver and offensive tackle. In fact, there really isn't a position where they're set, but general manager Joe Douglas is a believer in investing in the so-called premium positions. -- Cimini
Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 99.7%
Projected draft slot: 2
Have we officially seen enough of Gardner Minshew II to lock the Jags into a QB if they have a top-five pick?
Absolutely. Minshew is still dealing with the same issues he did as a rookie -- comfort in the pocket, arm strength, throwing receivers open and working the middle of the field -- and dropped off significantly after a hot start in the first two weeks. He'll likely end up having a solid career as a backup and spot starter, but he's not a franchise QB. The Jaguars have a 28.2% chance of landing the top pick and are 94.1% likely to draft in the top five, per FPI. -- Mike DiRocco
The Jags have the NFL's worst defense by DVOA (via Football Outsiders). If they take a quarterback with their first pick, is it defense all the way for their second first-rounder (Los Angeles Rams' pick)?
They darn well should be thinking defense, because there are a lot of holes on that side of the ball. It should start at defensive tackle, but pass-rusher, safety and cornerback are positions that also have to be addressed. The Jaguars likely will meet some of those needs in free agency, but the remaining ones should be the top priority. -- DiRocco
Dallas Cowboys
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 93.9%
Projected draft slot: 3
Rank these scenarios in likelihood at this point in the process: The Cowboys (1) re-sign Dak Prescott and don't worry about QB, (2) let Prescott walk and draft a QB with a high pick or (3) address quarterback elsewhere.
That's the right order right there. The Cowboys have been all-in on Prescott, and his value has never been higher to them considering the team's implosion after his season-ending ankle injury. That doesn't mean the Cowboys shouldn't consider a quarterback if they end up with a top-five pick (72.6% chance, per FPI).
That contract would be about $40 million guaranteed for four years, and the team would have the fifth-year option as added control. Prescott is looking at a deal of $35 million to $40 million per year. The Cowboys could use the money they saved on the long-term deal to address the rest of the roster. That becomes more problematic if Prescott is taking up such a big piece of the salary-cap pie. -- Todd Archer
The Cowboys have to draft a defensive back, right?
I wouldn't agree that they must take one. First, Dallas made the right call in picking CeeDee Lamb at No. 17 in April. He was the sixth-best player on its board, even if receiver is not a need. Second, yes, the Cowboys need cornerback and safety help. A lot of it. But they also need help at every level of their defense.
They need linebacker help, especially if they decide to move on from Jaylon Smith. They need defensive end and defensive tackle help. Instead of having just the "best player available" mindset in 2021, they need to have the "best defensive player available" mindset. If that is a defensive back, OK, but they don't have to be picky. -- Archer
Los Angeles Chargers
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 86.6%
Projected draft slot: 4
The wide receiver class is stacked, and there are some talented offensive tackles available. Does Justin Herbert need more support on offense?
You can always use some more support. Offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga has missed time, and it seems a key piece of the offense is always missing. They just called up running back Kalen Ballage from the practice squad, but eventually, Austin Ekeler will make his return. That will make a difference. So, yes, a better supporting cast would be beneficial for Herbert, and I'd expect the Chargers to look at the offensive tackles available to them. -- Shelley Smith
Where does Los Angeles need to focus its attention during the draft?
Along with the offensive line, the Chargers need more bodies in the secondary. The injuries to safety Derwin James and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. have exposed the lack of depth at defensive back, especially after Desmond King II was traded. -- Smith
Washington Football Team
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 85.2%
Projected draft slot: 5
With Dwayne Haskins Jr. benched, what are the chances Washington drafts a quarterback in the first three rounds in 2021?
Pretty high, though a lot of that will depend on what the team does in free agency. There could be some interesting veteran quarterback options available, and if Washington wants to truly take a step in 2021, it could go that direction instead. It will have the cap room to do so, too. A lot of it pivots on what Ron Rivera the GM wants to do for Ron Rivera the coach. Sometimes the goals don't always run parallel with one another.
Otherwise, they need a young quarterback option, and there will be ones available beyond Lawrence and Fields. The big key in Washington will be letting the football folks decide the direction. Too often in the past, owner Dan Snyder has made the call, and the result is that a coach might get paired with a quarterback he wasn't completely sold on. The results are easy to see. -- John Keim
Will this definitely be an offense-focused draft?
So much depends on what Washington does in free agency first. But there's no doubt it needs a lot of help on offense. It will be looking for a left tackle, more receiving help and a tight end -- in addition, most likely, to a quarterback. But for what it's worth, Washington could also use linebacker help, in particular, on defense. -- Keim
Cincinnati Bengals
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 75.2%
Projected draft slot: 6
The Bengals have allowed 32 sacks so far, second most in the NFL. Is protection for Joe Burrow the one and only priority for Day 1 of the draft for Cincy?
Depending on how the rest of the season plays out, the Bengals could decide to get a right tackle opposite 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams to set the edge for Burrow's offensive line of the future. But the Bengals could also get an extended look at rookie Hakeem Adeniji, someone whom the staff was high on when Cincinnati drafted him in the sixth round in 2020.
Early in the season, Burrow's high sack rate stemmed from his knack for extending plays and holding the ball a little too long. As he adjusts his clock to the NFL and becomes more judicious in when he decides to make plays, his sacks should continue to drop. But right tackle and right guard will be key positions to watch moving forward. -- Ben Baby
Does the defensive line need a jolt of young talent?
The Bengals' biggest need is defensive end. Even though he was an interior defensive lineman, Geno Atkins was arguably Cincinnati's top pass-rusher since the team drafted him in 2010. The Bengals also had Carlos Dunlap, who was officially the team's all-time sack leader, before the disgruntled veteran was traded to Seattle at the deadline. Carl Lawson, a 2017 draft pick, has had his best season in Cincinnati, but if he isn't re-signed, the Bengals will have limited options on the edge. It's time for Cincinnati to find a high-end edge rusher in the draft. -- Baby
New York Giants
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 72.9%
Projected draft slot: 11
It hasn't even been two full seasons as a starter for Daniel Jones, but could the Giants theoretically move on from the 2019 No. 6 overall pick and draft a QB with their 2021 first-round pick?
Well, if they finish with a top-two pick, that probably says a lot about how Jones played down the stretch and for most of this season. So taking a quarterback wouldn't be out of the question if they end up in that position, though now at 3-7 after two straight wins, it's a more unlikely draft slot outcome than it was two weeks ago (the Giants have a 0.3% chance at the No. 1 spot, and a 26.9% chance to be in the top five, per FPI).
Taking a quarterback would seem much less realistic if we're talking about the middle or late first round. The Giants do seem content with Jones and the progress he's been making, at least publicly. -- Jordan Raanan
The offensive line continues to be an issue, despite drafting Andrew Thomas at No. 4 last year. Is this still the primary position of concern?
The Giants used their first- and third-round picks in 2020 on offensive tackles, but it hasn't immediately solved their problems. Jones has still been pressured on 37.5% of his dropbacks (third in the NFL). So it's hard to argue with them looking to add more talent to their offensive line. You can never have enough good O-linemen. -- Raanan
Atlanta Falcons
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 70.7%
Projected draft slot: 7
Matt Ryan will be 36 years old before next season starts but is under contract through 2023. Is this the draft that Atlanta starts thinking about a heir at quarterback?
The Falcons should absolutely start thinking about Ryan's replacement. They can't release Ryan without paying a king's ransom in dead cap space, so whomever Atlanta picks would be able to marinate for at least two seasons behind the veteran, and develop and learn. Given the talent the Falcons have, it's not likely that they will be picking in the top 10 in 2022, so they should maximize the opportunity to get a future franchise quarterback while they have such a high pick in '21. -- Turron Davenport
Where is the Falcons' biggest need on defense?
They have to find a pass rush. They have tried to address the issue by signing Dante Fowler Jr. and drafting Marlon Davidson, but there is still more to be desired in that department. They moved on from 2017 first-round pick Takkarist McKinley, too. An impact pass-rusher off the edge would be a solid complement to defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who is a force up the middle. -- Davenport
Miami Dolphins (pick via Texans)
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 67.3%
Projected draft slot: 8
What do the Dolphins need to focus on in the draft to give last year's No. 5 overall pick, Tua Tagovailoa, a chance to succeed?
Speed. A Tagovailoa-led offense works best with strong route runners and speedy playmakers who excel after the catch. The Dolphins have one of the NFL's slowest set of starting offensive weapons, and with two picks in each of the first two rounds, this draft is a perfect opportunity for the Dolphins to double-dip on speedy offensive playmakers to help Tagovailoa. One year after building Tagovailoa an offensive line via the draft, the 2021 crop should feature at least one running back and one receiver. -- Cameron Wolfe
The rebuild is working. How does Miami walk away from its two-pick first round happy?
The goal is always two starters. But a good Dolphins first round consists first of an electric offensive playmaker for Tagovailoa, and this is a great year to get a first-round receiver with options such as LSU's Ja'Marr Chase and Alabama's Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith at the top of the class. Second, the Dolphins could use a front-seven playmaker, either a twitchy edge rusher or a sideline-to-sideline off-ball linebacker to help a defense that has been exposed by mobile quarterbacks and often needs to send blitzes to get home consistently. That should continue the Dolphins' march toward being an AFC contender. -- Wolfe
Denver Broncos
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 66.6%
Projected draft slot: 9
Drew Lock got only five starts last season and missed some time with an injury so far this year. How locked in are the Broncos to giving him another year as starter before making a decision?
At the moment, the inclination is to give Lock a real offseason to smooth some of the rough edges that have been revealed so far this year, including being too inclined to retreat in the pocket when stressed and spotty footwork. But Lock has to do his part, too. If he does, he's likely to get some benefit of the doubt amid the team's injury-ravaged season and constant turnover at offensive coordinator that predates his arrival.
Of course, if the Broncos end up with a top- five pick (a 19% chance, according to FPI), they'll still have to do what everybody in the top five has to do: give all of the quarterbacks in the draft their utmost attention. -- Jeff Legwold
What is the Broncos' biggest area of weakness right now, and can they fix it in the draft?
Left tackle is a need, especially if Garett Bolles isn't re-signed after he has put together -- so far -- his best season with the team. Bolles will be an unrestricted free agent after the Broncos did not engage his fifth-year option, while Ja'Wuan James is scheduled to return as the right tackle after opting out this season.
The Broncos passed on several tackle prospects in the 2020 draft to load up on offense early on, including wide receivers with their first two picks, but likely can't do the same this time around. They'll also need to look at safety if Justin Simmons leaves in free agency. -- Legwold
Carolina Panthers
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 59.3%
Projected draft slot: 10
Can Carolina feel confident Teddy Bridgewater is its guy for the next three seasons and forget about the QB position in the draft for the moment?
No. As well as Bridgewater has played, if he's not able to help the Panthers turn all these close losses into wins, it would be hard to pass on one of the top two or three potential franchise quarterbacks in the 2021 draft, if one is available. And with the way his three-year deal is structured, it's more of a two-year deal. So a young, dynamic quarterback would do well to groom under Bridgewater next season. -- David Newton
Is the secondary a concern that can be cleaned up in the draft?
The secondary is for sure a weakness. The Panthers need a shutdown corner to play man-to-man coverage and pressure the way defensive coordinator Phil Snow would like. Donte Jackson, a second-round pick in 2018, doesn't appear to be the answer, although a nagging toe injury has kept him from playing to his full potential. Troy Pride Jr., a fourth-round pick this year, continues to play like a rookie. The only defensive back currently projected in the top 10 is Alabama's Patrick Surtain II, so another defensive tackle to replace aging/injury-prone Kawann Short or a left tackle might make more sense. -- Newton
Detroit Lions
FPI chances of a top-10 pick: 45.2%
Projected draft slot: 12
Could the Lions approach the first round the same way the Packers did in 2020 and take a QB even though he'd be behind Matthew Stafford for a few more years?
This answer, like so many others within this organization, is going to depend on who is making the decisions this offseason. If GM Bob Quinn and coach Matt Patricia are still around, it's much more likely they stick with Stafford and draft a quarterback in the mid-to-late rounds, if they decided to take one at all. Quinn has done this in the past with Jake Rudock and Brad Kaaya.
But under a new regime? Then everything is an unknown, including how long Stafford is with the Lions since his contract is up after 2022 and Detroit could be in a rebuild. If that's the case, then yes, you could see Detroit draft a quarterback early. That quarterback, though, might not be sitting behind Stafford for very long in that scenario. -- Michael Rothstein
Detroit needs pass-rush help. Is it more likely to address it in the draft or free agency?
They kind of addressed it for this season by trading for Everson Griffen, one of the best-available immediate help options on the market. For the future? It once again goes back to who is in charge. If it is the current regime, it hasn't shown a predilection for drafting pass-rushers early, so the Lions likely would go to free agency. Of course, they might have to worry about keeping their own breakout pass-rusher, Romeo Okwara, who is in the final year of his contract. Regime will dictate a lot here. -- Rothstein