NFL teams in 2020 are managing a weekly avalanche of COVID-19 scares, virtual meetings, contact tracing and mounting injuries, all while trying to push for the playoffs.
Ranking quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL draft isn't high on the priority list just yet. "It's too early for that," one NFL general manager said.
But the draft process will crystallize teams' needs and preferences at the game's most important position soon enough. And here's where that process stands right now: Scouting departments attend college games, interview their go-to sources at schools, watch hours of tape and start to formulate early opinions on players across the board, from first-rounders to undrafted free agents.
Teams such as Ohio State are doing Zoom calls with scouts to update teams on their prospects.
And if you think you might be drafting in the top half of the first round, partly due to shaky quarterback play, you're probably doing a few hours of extra homework.
To help project how some of the dominoes might fall, ESPN caught up with several execs and scouts to get initial impressions on the top QBs in the class and what teams might be thinking.
The Trevor Lawrence buzz is warranted
Lawrence is not only considered the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, he's better than the former Colts star, according to one GM.
The GM says Lawrence gets the edge with a "rare" and "special" skill set, with minimal hang-ups beyond typical issues that all rookies face.
Two other execs say they'd give Luck a slight edge due to thickness at 6-foot-4, 240 pounds to Lawrence's 6-foot-6, 220-pound listing, along with Luck's success in vaulting once-dormant Stanford into a winner. But they agree it's very close.
It might seem far-fetched for Lawrence to stay in school, but a few people around the league believe he's at least considering it. Peyton and Eli Manning stayed in school for their senior years, with Peyton in 1997 famously spurning the very team that could select No. 1 this year, the New York Jets. And Luck bypassed a chance to enter the 2011 draft to stay for his redshirt junior season at Stanford. So there is precedent.
Most execs largely expect Lawrence to declare for the draft in the end. But discussion of him staying in school is at least out there in NFL circles.
Some believe the gulf between Lawrence and the rest of the quarterback class is sizable. Others think Justin Fields has tightened it at bit.
Either way, there's a gap. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Lawrence as his No. 1 overall prospect in 2020.
"Looks about as natural as anyone in recent years throwing the ball," an NFC exec said. "Decision-making and overall accuracy could use some work."
In 2019, Lawrence completed 268 of 407 passes (65.8%) for 3,665 yards, 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions, ranking fifth in QBR (87.3). But he has improved his accuracy by nearly 5 percentage points in 2020 (135-of-191, 70.7) and is on pace for nearly 4,600 yards and 43 touchdowns over a 15-game slate, which he played the past two seasons.
"It looks like he's having more fun this year, which has resulted in better play," one NFL personnel man said. "Last year he might have been feeling the expectations, the weight, but now he looks looser."
How Lawrence impacts the Jets, others
Lawrence is a massive cornerstone rarely available to a young general manager struggling to build a winner.
Despite the franchise's affection for Sam Darnold, second-year GM Joe Douglas would be faced with the easiest decision of his tenure if the 0-9 Jets secure the No. 1 pick.
The winless franchise has left fans in a vulnerable spot; the losing is brutal, but the promise of Lawrence helps them endure. ESPN's Football Power Index has the Jets' chances to land the No. 1 pick at 61.1%.
Those chances -- coupled with the two first-round picks secured from the Jamal Adams trade, a young star left tackle in Mekhi Becton, and nearly $83 million in projected cap space -- have the Jets in an oddly enviable spot for 2021.
Here's how some people around the league expect this to shake out if the Jets are picking first:
Decide on the best coach to structure an offense around Lawrence's skill set, placing a cloud over Adam Gase's tenure, which hasn't been a week-to-week thing. So far, the Jets have preferred to evaluate the body of work over a full season. But surviving an 0-16 season would be nearly impossible (yes, Hue Jackson did it, but his timing was good -- Cleveland was simply tired of firing people and paying buyouts).
Make sure the card is getting turned in on April 29 with Lawrence's name on it. Make sure Lawrence is good with it, too.
Then execute a trade of Darnold -- preferably before the draft to maximize leverage -- giving the talented but erratic quarterback the fresh start he probably needs.
A similar situation unfolded for Arizona in 2019, when the Cardinals dealt Josh Rosen to Miami for a second-round pick after securing Kyler Murray No. 1.
The Jets did not consider trading Darnold at the trade deadline because they like him, and who knows what will happen between now and the draft?
Darnold has 32 career starts for the Jets, far more than Rosen's 13 when Arizona dealt him. New York has plenty of information on him.
Injuries and lack of playmaking around Darnold might have stunted his ability to create and throw on the move. The Jets let Darnold's leading receiver from 2019, Robby Anderson, sign with the Carolina Panthers for two years and $20 million. His replacement, Breshad Perriman, has missed four games. A rebuilt offensive line of middle-tier free agents hasn't played great, and New York ranks 27th in rushing offense.
Now, some teams wonder whether his confidence has been scarred. They also wonder about those curious interceptions at crucial times that are far too Daniel Jones-like. Thirty-four picks in 32 games is ugly, even for young players on bad teams.
But Douglas is all about draft capital and bargains, so he'd try to maximize his value for Darnold. Getting a first-round pick for him is hardly a slam dunk. But Darnold will have value. He appears fixable.
Any team with a reasonable shot at No. 1 would consider Lawrence, save maybe a few two-win teams (Chargers, Texans, Bengals). Execs who are paid good money to dissect projects can't find a lot of issues with this guy. It's just understood he'll go No. 1 and be good, and there's not much Lawrence can do to screw that up now.
Even Dallas, with a 5.5% chance at the top pick per the FPI, would be foolish not to seriously consider Lawrence if they somehow surpass the Jets or one-win Jaguars, who have a 28.7% chance at No. 1 by the same metric.
The case for Justin Fields
Two different execs made the same NFL comparison for Fields: Dak Prescott.
"I think he's a more natural passer than [Dak]," an NFC exec said.
Fields is not considered a slam dunk at Lawrence's level, but the Ohio State star is taking ownership of that No. 2 spot in a big way. That same exec says Fields "does everything well and is very consistent. Nice, calm, poised demeanor. In my book, that gap between he and Lawrence isn't as big as some think." Kiper and ESPN NFL analyst Todd McShay both rank Fields the No. 2 overall prospect in the class.
Another NFC exec likes Fields but isn't as sold, calling his arm "slightly above average" and saying that he is not an elite processor from the pocket just yet. Fields adopted a plant-based diet this offseason to slim down to 220 pounds, and the exec believes Fields could stand to gain five to 10 pounds for NFL play.
Accuracy was a mild concern a year ago, when Fields completed 67.2% of his passes. But he had just transferred from Georgia, where he backed up Jake Fromm in 2018, to Columbus.
But his status has been solidified in 2020. He has completed 72 of 83 passes for 908 yards, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions and an FBS-high 96.4 QBR through three games, a small sample size but enough to strengthen his case.
An AFC exec disputes any questions about Fields' arm strength, calling it NFL-ready. And his speed and quick-twitch abilities are legit, with one scout expecting him to run somewhere in the low 4.5s in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.
"Last year I would have compared him to [a Day 2 prospect] because he wasn't overly accurate and missed throws," an NFC exec said. "But he's improving by the week. He's cleaning that up." Teams are starting to dig into Fields' background, with Ohio State holding a recent Zoom call for scouts to provide it.
One exec whose team has done some of that work said mild concerns about entitlement and work ethic followed Fields, but that was likely more from his Georgia days and a perceived AAU me-first mentality. Everything that team has heard from Ohio State about Fields in the last year is "glowing," the exec said. Fields is considered reserved, maybe quiet, so if you want your quarterbacks loud and animated, Fields probably isn't that guy on a minute-to-minute basis. But he has that gear.
Most agree Jacksonville wouldn't hesitate to take Fields unless North Dakota State's Trey Lance or another player outshines him in the draft process.
If Jacksonville is Lawrence-or-bust, it could create a strong trade market. But this is a franchise with 14 different starting quarterbacks since 2003. Mark Brunell (1996-2003) is the only Jaguars quarterback to start five full seasons worth of games for the franchise. Jacksonville is also attempting a mini culture shift, cleansing the roster of several disgruntled veterans. They need a new face of the franchise.
The other guys
Trey Lance will be one of the toughest evaluations in the draft class, due to the lack of game reps.
North Dakota State's canceled season prompted Lance to declare for the draft early. His lone action in 2020 -- a 15-of-30, 149-yard performance against Central Arkansas -- won't quell concerns.
Lance's experience (17 college games at the FCS level) pales in comparison to that of Lawrence, who is already at 36 career games and 32 starts.
"When you add the [small sample size] to his age and comp level, I have reservations," an NFC exec said.
But he can overcome all of that with a massive skill set. The 6-foot-4, 227-pound Lance is strong, and throws with ease, while NDSU coaches "absolutely rave about the kid," said one NFL personnel man.
"If you're a GM, you'll have to swallow hard [taking him], but his traits are undeniable and I'm sure he'll interview well," said the personnel man of Lance, the No. 3-ranked quarterback in the class by Kiper and McShay. "There's so much to like."
Added an AFC exec: "Everything about him is positive: talented and physical runner. The question is, how soon does this guy have to play? An ideal spot for him would be somewhere where he can learn for a year."
The buzz about BYU's Zach Wilson is tangible -- to a point.
"Most intriguing of them all," an NFC exec said. "Confident passer whose ball jumps off of his hand."
But not everyone is buying the top-10 hype. Another NFC exec said Wilson's slender build (he is listed at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds) will be worrisome for some teams, though he is stronger this year after playing through a shoulder injury in 2019. McShay and Kiper have him ranked as the No. 4 quarterback.
"For active runners like him, the smaller guy worries you -- you can say the same thing about Kyler [Murray], but he never gets touched," the exec said.
The SEC has a pair of quarterbacks posting impressive seasons. Kyle Trask is easily Florida's best quarterback since Tim Tebow, and scouts were live in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday to watch Trask tear it up for six touchdowns.
One NFL personnel man said Trask has some Joe Burrow in him -- not a huge arm, but can fit the ball into tight windows with his confidence and accuracy. But he's no Burrow. One exec believes he's more of a third-round prospect who will likely move up because the position gets heightened in April. But his stock is rising, even if he has a ceiling. Kiper ranks Trask as his No. 6 quarterback.
"Has moxie, accurate, winner -- big guy but not great athlete, not as mobile, looks like a 4.85 guy," an NFC exec said.
Mac Jones is improving his stock with a nice deep ball and savvy play with Alabama, with a ridiculous 95.6 QBR through six games, higher than Tua Tagovailoa's 94.8 rating in his final year at Alabama.
Jones will likely be "limited [in the process] by arm strength and athleticism at the next level," the NFC exec said. Kiper and McShay both rank him fifth at QB.
Which teams will target QBs high in the draft?
The list of franchises expected to comb the draft pool for a future signal-caller seems to grow by the week. Several execs believe at least a third of the league could position for a quarterback due to a variety of factors.
The Jets, Jaguars and likely Washington, whose chances at a top-five pick are 50.9% per the FPI, are picking too high to ignore the options. Denver might be on this list soon enough if Drew Lock's play continues to crater, and the Broncos end up in the top five (19.7% chance); however, the franchise still believes in Lock. The next seven games are crucial for him.
The Saints and Colts are planning beyond aging starters who might be done after 2020.
Stuck in the middle are the Bears, Patriots, Falcons and Lions, who could win their way out of a top-10 pick without a playoff berth to show for it. Of this group, only the Lions (44.9%) have higher than a 22% chance at a top-10 pick.
With Nick Foles' modest cap hit of $6.66 million next year, the Bears can look for competition through the draft. A clean break from Mitch Trubisky, a 2021 free agent after the Bears declined his fifth-year option, would probably help both parties, save a late-season resurgence from the 2017 No. 2 overall pick.
Matt Ryan and his upcoming $40.9 million cap hit are probably immovable in an offseason with a $175 million cap floor due to the pandemic. Ryan's dead cap figure is a massive $49.9 million. Matthew Stafford's numbers are slightly more manageable ($34.95 million cap hit, $24.85 dead cap in 2021). You could argue Stafford, a top-10 quarterback most years, is a bargain at $27 million per year, but since the Lions haven't won a playoff game since drafting him in 2009, they might opt to allocate that $27 million to defensive help and capitalizing on a rookie contract at QB.
The Patriots and New York Giants might make their current marriages with Cam Newton and Daniel Jones work if the next two months go well. The Giants have a 27.5% chance at a top-five pick.
That leaves us with the inevitable surprises, and a few teams who are being talked about in these circles are the Panthers and 49ers.
Word is the Panthers like the 2021 draft class and have the ultimate flexible option in Teddy Bridgewater, a reliable starter on a three-year, $63 million deal that expires after the 2022 season. If they don't draft a quarterback high, more Bridgewater works. If they do, Bridgewater can continue to play without an Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love situation looming. The transition would be fairly seamless, and the Panthers are thinking long term with Matt Rhule. They didn't expect to dominate in 2020. They want a consistent winner by, more like, 2023. Their current chances of landing a top-10 pick are 12.9%.
I've talked to a few different NFL coordinators who say it's about time Kyle Shanahan, one of the game's great offensive minds, partners with an athletic young QB who can amplify the running game or make throws on the move. The team hasn't given up on Jimmy Garoppolo, but his injury history might expedite that process. Garoppolo's $26.9 million cap hit next season against $2.8 million in dead money -- with no guaranteed money on the books -- makes walking away easy. If the draft were today, the 49ers would select 15th overall.
"The thing with Kyle is he's good enough to move the ball on offense with almost any quarterback, so he doesn't necessarily need to stretch for one," said an NFC exec. "But it would add a new dimension for them."
A constant sleeper is Las Vegas, which is sitting at 6-3. People around the league are not discounting Jon Gruden's affection for lots of quarterbacks, even if he's happy with Derek Carr's renewed performance in 2020.