Every NFL season has surprises, and never more so than this 2020 campaign, but we typically have a good idea of how each team will perform. We turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) to determine just how good, and how bad, all 32 teams could be this year.
Using the middle 90% of the 20,000 FPI simulations of the season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, we identified a ceiling and a floor for each NFL team's expected performance in 2020. Unlikely outliers were eliminated, providing us with realistic best- and worst-case win-total projection scenarios. In other words, roughly 90% of the simulations have the Bills finishing with between six and 11 wins.
What can we expect for each NFL team this year? And what will determine on which end of that win-total spectrum each team eventually falls? FPI crunches the numbers, and our NFL Nation reporters indicate the biggest factor in each team hitting the high or low end of the range.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether Josh Allen has taken the next step. The third-year QB is the single-biggest catalyst for a team that has made improvements on offense and returns a top-three defense from 2019. With the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Buffalo has tried to build an offense that can keep up with some of the more high-powered units in the conference. On paper, the Bills should be able to, but that will also be heavily reliant on Allen's development as a passer. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive line play. The Dolphins had the league's worst O-line last season, which played a significant role in them having the worst-ranked rushing attack and giving up a league-high in sacks. Whether it's Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa back there for much of the season, the Dolphins' QB1 is going to need a lot more help from the run game and better pass protection up front if the team hopes to push closer to a .500 record in 2020. Miami could have four new starters on the offensive line, including two rookies, so how well this unit gels in an unusual offseason will be a huge variable on the Dolphins' record. -- Cameron Wolfe
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Coaching influence. After 19 years of excellence with the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady combination, Belichick now stands alone. Couple that with the big question of what happens at quarterback -- is it Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham? -- and this has the makings of a season that will add a new layer of context to Belichick's legacy. If the Patriots hit the ceiling, Belichick's greatness will only be accentuated. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Coach Adam Gase's impact on the offense. It's on him to develop QB Sam Darnold and galvanize a new-look offense that could have as many as six new starters. Gase was hired last year because of his offensive background, but the Jets finished 32nd in total yards. Injuries played a major role, but he won't get any free passes in Year 2. If Gase is smart, he will keep it simple and try to ride running back Le'Veon Bell, who is primed for a bounceback season. -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 9-7
Biggest variable: Whether the Ravens continue their dominance running the ball. Coming off a season in which it set the NFL's single-season record for most rushing yards in a season, Baltimore faces six of the eight-worst run defenses from last season. Since quarterback Lamar Jackson took over as starter, the Ravens are 18-1 when they run the ball 33 or more times. But Baltimore is 1-4 when it totals fewer than 33 rushing attempts. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: The Bengals' protection of QB Joe Burrow. Last year, Cincinnati's offensive line was shaky throughout the season. It ranked 27th in pass block win rate, an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. The Bengals will need a lot from their two projected tackles: Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round pick who missed last year because of an injury, and Bobby Hart, who will have to fight to keep his starting spot in training camp. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Quarterback Baker Mayfield's play. After his disappointing sophomore season, the new Browns' regime did everything possible to better support him. That included committing big money to free-agent right tackle Jack Conklin and tight end Austin Hooper, signing veteran QB Case Keenum as a mentor and sounding board and expending the No. 10 overall pick on a new blindside protector in Jedrick Wills Jr. Throw in new coach Kevin Stefanski's track record with efficient quarterbacking, and everything seems in place for Mayfield to have a big bounceback season. Whether he does figures to decide whether the Browns will finally snap the NFL's longest playoff drought. -- Jake Trotter
Dan Orlovsky explains why he expects better results from Baker Mayfield this season. given how much pressure the QB faced last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: QB Ben Roethlisberger's elbow. Without him last season, the Steelers still finished 8-8 thanks to one of the best defenses in the NFL. But the offense struggled with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. A full season of Roethlisberger gets the run game going and stretches the passing game -- and perhaps even more importantly, it brings the intangibles of having a confident, veteran quarterback leading from the field. Without Roethlisberger, the offense will face the same test it failed a season ago. -- Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Defensive depth. Houston has a solid starting 11, but it could have serious concerns if there is an injury on defense or if a starter, especially on the defensive line or in the secondary, has to miss time because of a positive coronavirus test. The Texans' defense allowed the Chiefs to come back from a 24-0 deficit in a playoff game last season, and that was with relatively good health. Houston's success in 2020 will be dependent on the strength and consistency of the defense. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether the starting offensive line remains healthy. There's no question that the Colts have one of the best units in the NFL, led by guard Quenton Nelson. They were fortunate enough to be the only team in the league to have all five starters start all 16 games in 2019. But what happens if the line can't stay healthy this season? The depth took a hit when key reserves Joe Haeg and Josh Andrews signed with other teams during free agency. The Colts could be a top-10 offense with a healthy offensive line because it'll help new starting quarterback Philip Rivers, who has been sacked at least 30 times in nine of the past 10 seasons, and a running game that finished seventh in the league last season. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 7-9 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Whether the defensive line depth steps up. The Jaguars took steps to fix their run defense (139 yards per game) in the offseason, but the two biggest additions won't play in 2020. Nose tackle Al Woods opted out because of the coronavirus, and defensive lineman Rodney Gunter is stepping away because of a heart condition. They're two of the six defensive linemen who are out for all or significant parts of the season for various reasons. The Jaguars are going to have to rely on rookies (especially DaVon Hamilton) and lesser-known free agents to play significant roles. -- Mike DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether quarterback Ryan Tannehill picks up where he left off. Everything clicked for the Titans when he took over at QB. Their suddenly balanced offensive attack scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games, and they went 6-1 over that stretch. Derrick Henry's rushing threat will make teams stack the box, and when teams do so, Tannehill and the passing attack have to take advantage. Tannehill will have a variety of weapons at his disposal in A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries. His ability to get them all involved will be the key to being effective on offense. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: The first month. Sure, Drew Lock is in his first full season as the starting quarterback, and the Broncos have plenty of work to do to set things in the offensive line, but how this season looks overall might hinge on whether Denver does far more in Weeks 1-4 than it did last season. The Broncos started 0-4, scored 16 or fewer points three times in those four games and had zero sacks on defense in the first three games. Several of the Broncos players have already said how important it is for them to find a way to be far more effective in those early days. They feel as if the team showed its potential, even before the upgrades on offense in the draft, with its 4-1 finish over the last five games of 2019. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 9-7
Biggest variable: How the defense starts the season. The Chiefs won their final nine games last season, counting the playoffs, after their defense found its bearings. The D, with 10 starters and a full coaching staff back from last year's Super Bowl, should be able to play well starting with the Sept. 10 opener against the Texans. Last year's slow start, after the Chiefs changed their defensive system, coaching staff and many players, was not unexpected. -- Adam Teicher
Louis Riddick questions whether the Chiefs can keep their nucleus intact in the coming years as they aim to win several Super Bowls.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Whether the Raiders can close out teams. As defensive coordinator Paul Guenther said, the Raiders have "rebuilt the engine" of the defense this offseason. "It used to be when we have one guy out with an injury, we bled to death," he says. "Now we have some depth across the board in the secondary, on the D-line, we can roll guys through and create roles for each and every guy." Indeed, the Raiders added cornerback Damon Arnette in the first round of the draft, signed "prototypical 3-technique" defensive tackle Maliek Collins, rebuilt the linebacker corps with free agents Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski and signed safety Damarious Randall. -- Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Coach Anthony Lynn's managing of the quarterback situation. He says veteran Tyrod Taylor will get an opportunity to start, and he has expressed confidence in Taylor's ability to lead the offense. However, the Chargers selected quarterback Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick, and it's expected that he will eventually take over as starter -- though no timeline has been provided. If Taylor hits any bumps, Lynn must carefully gauge whether to stick with the veteran or put in the rookie. -- Lindsey Thiry
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: How quickly the Cowboys pick up everything that coach Mike McCarthy is putting down. The talent on offense is unmistakable, and McCarthy said he is not overhauling the offensive scheme that had been in place ... but there will be differences. And the defense is totally new under coordinator Mike Nolan. But in their past three coaching changes, the Cowboys saw their win total increase by five, four and two games in the first season and made the playoffs in two of those seasons (2003 and 2007). -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Just how good Daniel Jones actually is. If the second-year quarterback is the real deal, the Giants should be significantly better than a four-win team as long as the defense is just decent. Jones threw 24 touchdown passes in 12 starts as a rookie, which would amount to a more than respectable 32 if he plays a full 16 games. And that is not factoring in self-improvement or an upgrade in weapons (if they can stay healthy). Of course, if Jones isn't the real deal and continues to turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (1.8 per start), it's going to be another long year for the Giants, who have the worst record of any team over the past three seasons and a defense devoid of any top talent. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: The reworked offensive line. The Eagles have enjoyed continuity along the front for a good while now, but this year's group looks different and comes with more questions than it's used to. How will Andre Dillard, the team's 2019 first-round pick, fare protecting Carson Wentz's blindside? Can Jason Peters make the transition from tackle to guard and help ease the loss of Brandon Brooks? Will veteran center Jason Kelce maintain his high level of play in his 10th NFL season? The success of the offense and the team hinges a good deal on those answers. -- Tim McManus
Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Whether there is enough on offense to help QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. He is Washington's future, and if he doesn't develop, the team will be looking for another young QB in the offseason. Haskins had a terrific offseason and showed progress late last year. But even if he's making good decisions and showing leadership, has Washington surrounded him with enough weapons? Outside of receiver Terry McLaurin, the offense is full of questions when it comes to the skill positions. Washington also has to determine the left side of its line. -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Whether coach Matt Nagy's offense can look anything but ordinary. The Bears' defense is talented enough to win 10 games, but the offense continues to be underwhelming. Can either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles get the job done? Will Chicago run the football in 2020? Can tight end Jimmy Graham still perform at an elite level? Will any Bears receiver outside of Allen Robinson II step up? What's wrong with the highly paid offensive line? The Bears' fate hinges on these questions. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 9-7 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Defensive effectiveness. The offense, as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, should be efficient and potent enough to stay in any game. The defense, Matt Patricia's specialty, is where the Lions faltered all last season. It brought in new pieces, with potentially six new starters, to try and make improvements. Of those, cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, along with linebacker Jamie Collins, have the best chances to make game-changing differences. If it works, the Lions will be playoff contenders and could push for a division title. If it doesn't, Detroit might be looking at a coaching change after the season. More than likely, as is what usually happens in Detroit, the Lions will find themselves somewhere in between. -- Michael Rothstein
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether the defense can stop the run. You just know that every team on the Packers' schedule this year has watched and rewatched how the 49ers ran all over them in the NFC title game -- 42 times for 285 yards. And you just know how much copy-catting goes on in the NFL. The Packers threw tons of money at their pass-rush when they signed the Smiths in the 2019 free-agent period, and it worked. So the 49ers decided not to pass. They threw only eight times. The Packers didn't add a run-stopper to their D-line this offseason, and they swapped Blake Martinez for Christian Kirksey at inside linebacker. So it's on defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to come up with a better run plan ... or else. -- Rob Demovsky
Ryan Clark explains why Aaron Rodgers hasn't underachieved in his career, and why his Packers team has.
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: How quickly the Vikings' defense finds its footing with young players and new faces filling important roles. Minnesota ranked second in expected points allowed in the red zone in 2019, according to Pro Football Focus, and allowed the fifth-fewest points. Those are high marks for a defense that went through periods of up-and-down play last season. We could see a spike in scoring leaguewide in 2020 given the lack of time defenses have to gel in training camp, and those units that come together quicker in spite of the usual regression and turnover will be the most successful. If the Vikings' young corners can hold their own early, and the team doesn't experience a drop-off with its pass-rush, Minnesota could teeter closer to double-digits in the win column. -- Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Whether Todd Gurley II stays healthy and gives the Falcons a boost in the running game. The Falcons don't need Gurley to be the same guy he was as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year -- not with weapons such as Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst in the pass game. But if Gurley's left knee holds up and he gives the Falcons 10 rushing touchdowns and some big first downs, then the one-year gamble on him might put the Falcons in playoff contention. -- Vaughn McClure
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 3-13
Biggest variable: Whether the overhauled defense is an improvement. The D ranked 31st in the league in points allowed last season, but there are pieces here, starting with the return of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short and the arrival of first-round pick Derrick Brown to play beside him. However, the overall lack of experience and depth makes it essential this group grows up in a hurry. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 13-3 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: Whether defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins stay healthy and reach their ceilings. I lump these two former first-round draft picks together as the biggest X factors on the Saints' roster this year. Both have flashed enormous potential at times, but both of their young careers have also been derailed by injuries. If they reach their peaks, the Saints could have one of the NFL's best defensive lines. If not, the pass-rushing depth is a big question. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 7-9
Biggest variable: The young secondary's ability to slow opponent passing games. Coach Bruce Arians says Tom Brady is the "least of his worries," so we'll trust what he says and assume Brady can handle not having any live preseason reps in a new offense. So the focus shifts to the secondary, which surrendered 28 points per game last year but showed noticeable improvement in the second half of the season. Remember, Brady had the league's No. 1 defense from 2001 to 2019. He can't do it alone. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles said of his group, "Physically, they've grown; mentally, they're still puppies." -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 10-6 | Floor: 5-11
Biggest variable: Chemistry on the offense. Add DeAndre Hopkins to any offense and the win total will naturally increase. Now add him to an offense that features the reigning Rookie of the Year in quarterback Kyler Murray, a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in Larry Fitzgerald and a dynamic running back in Kenyan Drake, and that win total could easily double from five last year to 10 this year. But what will help the Cardinals double their wins is how well Murray can distribute the ball. There are a lot of talented hands on that team and only one ball. If Murray can get all his playmakers their fair share of touches and touchdowns and keep the peace, then the Cardinals' offense will not only thrive, it'll explode. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether the defense is fixed. Veteran defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is out, and first-year coordinator Brandon Staley is in. The 37-year-old inherits star defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and he will keep a similar 3-4 scheme deployed by Phillips the past three seasons. But expect Staley, who coached the past three seasons with defensive guru Vic Fangio, to put his own stamp on the unit. -- Lindsey Thiry
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-4 | Floor: 8-8
Biggest variable: QB Jimmy Garoppolo's continued improvement. The 49ers' offense finished fourth in yards and second in points per game in 2019, but it was the defense that got much of the credit for the team's run to Super Bowl LIV. With DeForest Buckner's departure and the expectation that the defense will regress at least some, the onus falls on the offense to pick up the slack. The biggest task for Garoppolo will be cutting down on the turnovers after he threw 13 interceptions last year and had a handful of other potential picks dropped. In his second full year under Kyle Shanahan, Falcons QB Matt Ryan won the MVP. That's probably asking too much of Garoppolo, but if he can cut the turnovers in half or better the way Ryan did, the Niners should be in position to finish on the high end of this range. -- Nick Wagoner
Stephen A. Smith says the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo is not an elite quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether they can mount an above-average pass-rush. It was their biggest weakness last year, and the primary culprit for one of the worst defensive showings of the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have the makings of a dominant secondary after trading for Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar (who could be suspended for part of the season). They bolstered their linebacker corps and added some much-needed speed by drafting Jordyn Brooks in the first round. But how good can their pass-rush be with what appears to be a handful of nice complementary pieces and no obvious primary threat like Jadeveon Clowney? It'll take a group effort, but it'll also take better coaching from Carroll and defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. -- Brady Henderson