As young, athletic quarterbacks have started to replace the previous generation of pocket passers, it has become clear that traditional passing statistics cannot on their own explain which players do the most and least for their teams. But that realization doesn't make quarterback evaluation any easier. Quarterback success depends in part on the success of the players on offense around them, the success of their team's defense and special teams, and the success of the strategies their coaches' implement. It is difficult to disentangle.
ESPN Stats & Information makes that effort a little bit easier with their expected points added metric. It works by comparing the points a team is expected to score at the start and at the end of their plays based on factors like down and distance, field position and time remaining. It does not split the credit between a quarterback and his receiver for a long touchdown or split the blame between a quarterback and his linemen for a blindside sack. But it does frame every play on the same scale, making it possible to compare a team's success on plays that involve its quarterback to plays without him on offense -- typically runs but also plays with a backup under center -- and on defense and special teams. It isn't perfect, but that approach can help identify real trends that traditional statistics overlook.
By comparing the total EPA of each quarterback's pass and run attempts to that of his team's running game, defense and special teams, we have identified the top 10 and bottom 10 quarterbacks in comparative value. Essentially, this is how much value quarterbacks brought in comparison to the rest of their teammates. It is not a raw measurement of "most valuable," because that measurement would end up with Lamar Jackson No. 1 in 2019. But Jackson shared the spotlight with a good running game, a good defense and good special teams. Someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick emphatically did not.
For our rankings, we included passers who made only 10 or more starts in 2019, which excluded four teams in the Broncos, Lions, Steelers, and Washington Football Team. We'll start with the players who brought the most comparative value compared to their teammates.
Read through our various categories of passers, or skip ahead to the metric of your choice here:
Most valuable | Least valuable
Most accurate | Least accurate
Most aggressive | Least aggressive
Note: QBs with the most/least comparative value were appraised by Scott Spratt, most/least accurate were detailed by Bryan Knowles, and most/least aggressive were illuminated by Rivers McCown.
Most comparative value
1. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
QB EPA: +70.7 (eighth)
Team EPA: -177.1 (27th)
QB comparative value: +247.9
Since Jon Gruden returned to the Raiders, Carr has heard rumors that he would be replaced as the team's starting quarterback. Apparently, he's tired of it. Even before his comments, Carr made that point clear with a tremendously efficient 2019 season. He finished top 10 among regular starters with both his 62.2 QBR and 18.2% passing DVOA (DVOA measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent, explained further here.). His 6.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was bottom five and does back up the scouts who lament that Carr is sometimes unwilling to push the ball to open receivers downfield. But while conservative, Carr's approach is one that can lead to tremendous success -- just look at the Saints, and Drew Brees' even lower 6.6-yard aDOT. If the Raiders want to make changes to improve their playoff chances in future seasons, they should aim to fix their bottom-10 defense (14.8% DVOA, 31st) and special teams (minus-3.2%, 25th) before they worry about their quarterback.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins
QB EPA: +25.2 (19th)
Team EPA: -213.4 (28th)
QB comparative value: +238.5
Carr might have had it tough in 2019, but that was nothing compared to Fitzpatrick's challenge in Miami. Fitzpatrick faced the third-highest offensive pressure rate (36.0%) behind a trade-decimated offensive line. His receivers dropped 38 passes, the second most in football. And even when they did catch his passes, his receivers averaged just 4.4 yards after the catch, fourth lowest in football. With the same circumstances, Josh Rosen produced a horrendous minus-63.0% passing DVOA and 18.4 QBR. Fitzpatrick's neutral 1.3% DVOA and top-10 66.5 QBR were miraculous by comparison, and spearheaded a 5-4 record in November and December for a team that, before he became the starter, was on track for a winless season.
3. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
QB EPA: +103.8 (fifth)
Team EPA: -98.3 (23rd)
QB comparative value: +202.1
GM Bill O'Brien's trade of star receiver DeAndre Hopkins this offseason brought the public exasperation with his mismanagement of his roster to a boil. But he would have faced that outcry much sooner if Watson hadn't papered over so many of the team's other weaknesses. Watson has produced a top-12 passing DVOA rate in each of his three professional seasons despite enduring a top-five offensive pressure rate in every one of them. And somehow, Watson led the Texans to 10 wins in 2019 despite the team's defense declining from seventh in defensive DVOA in 2018 to 26th last year.
4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
QB EPA: +138.9 (third)
Team EPA: -26.2 (12th)
QB comparative value: +165.1
Prescott didn't enjoy the same win-loss success in 2019 that Watson did, but it certainly wasn't because of his quality of play. Prescott finished top six among regular starters with both his 27.1% passing DVOA and 70.2 QBR. The team probably did suffer from poor fortune, but its league-leading 40 drops and bottom-three minus-3.9% special teams DVOA were also evidence that the team failed to do the little things they needed to win their close games. Perhaps new head coach Mike McCarthy can rectify those issues, but the Cowboys should prioritize keeping Prescott long term either way.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
QB EPA: +140.1 (second)
Team EPA: +2.6 (seventh)
QB comparative value: +137.6
Mahomes is unquestionably the best quarterback in football. Despite a lower volume because of the two games he missed because of a knee injury, Mahomes again finished top three at the position with his 30.0% passing DVOA and 76.3 QBR. But the Chiefs' success with Mahomes sidelined showed just how talented their roster is. Perennial backup Matt Moore set a career high with a 64.8% completion percentage and beat a playoff-bound Vikings team in one of his two starts. This is the same Chiefs team that averaged close to 11 wins per year in five seasons with the hyper-conservative Alex Smith as their starter. Mahomes makes the Chiefs Super Bowl favorites, but they would be competitive with any competent quarterback starter.
6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
QB EPA: +190.6 (first)
Team EPA: +57.4 (third)
QB comparative value: +133.2
Jackson seems more essential to the Ravens than even Mahomes is to the Chiefs. But if GM Eric DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh and can tailor their roster and strategies to fit their MVP quarterback, then I suspect they could do the same for another player under center. Meanwhile, many of the team's players who are perfect fits for Jackson's skill set are also simply great players who would be assets to any team. The Ravens' relied on heavy personnel with multiple tight ends 43% of the time, fourth most in football. That helped their run-focused approach and pushed Jackson to his 273 rushing DYAR, nearly triple the total of Josh Allen in second place at the position (100). But it didn't take away from the team's passing game, which had the second-fewest drops (17), at least until their unfortunate playoff performance. Additionally, the team maintained their top-five standing in defensive DVOA despite offseason losses of multiple-time Pro Bowlers Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley and Eric Weddle.
T-7. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
QB EPA: -5.6 (25th)
Team EPA: -135.4 (26th)
QB comparative value: +129.8
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the talented Mahomes and Jackson on their talent-rich teams, Dalton did not play his best in 2019. But the Bengals' 14-loss season was also clearly not his fault. A.J. Green's preseason ankle injury and first-round pick Jonah Williams' preseason shoulder injury led to full-season absences for both players, and set the tone for a team that finished in the bottom half of teams in adjusted games lost for the second straight year. At the time stuck between plans to compete and rebuild, the roster couldn't afford the losses of two of the team's small handful of blue-chip players. That became clear after Dalton was benched with backup Ryan Finley completing just 47.1% of his passes. By comparison, Dalton had stellar rates with his 59.5% completion percentage, minus-10.6% DVOA, and 40.1 QBR. He even did enough to win a pair of games after his return to the lineup in Week 13 with little help from a bottom-three defense (13.4% DVOA).
T-7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
QB EPA: +56.8 (13th)
Team EPA: -72.9 (19th)
QB comparative value: +129.8
However you want to measure quarterback effectiveness, Ryan has been unable to duplicate the success of his 2016 MVP season. But the steady decline of his efficiency from 39.1% DVOA and 79.6 QBR that season to 7.0% and 57.6 last season and the team's decline from 11 to seven wins says more about the talent around Ryan than Ryan himself. Yes, he has exceptional receivers to throw to in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. But his pass protection slipped to a 31.7% allowed pressure rate, bottom 10 in football. The Falcons didn't fare any better in run-blocking (3.98 adjusted line yards, 24th), and that plus bottom-half defense (4.5% DVOA, 20th) and special teams (minus-2.9%, 28th) units put more and more pressure on Ryan to carry the team with his passing. Given the circumstances, he fared well last season.
9. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
QB EPA: +62.6 (11th)
Team EPA: -57.3 (17th)
QB comparative value: +119.9
Wilson has been so exceptional for enough years that his level of play might have become less notable for football fans. If his perennial 2.0% or better interception rate fails to impress you, consider that he has played that mistake-free football behind an offensive line that has finished in the bottom three in offensive pressure rate every year that Sports Info Solutions has charted it (2015-19). Last year, he suffered the most sacks in football (48) and still threw only five interceptions. And once again, he dragged a Seahawks team with middling defensive (2.6% DVOA, 18th) and special teams (minus-1.0%, 20th) to 11 wins and a playoff berth.
10. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
QB EPA: +53.5 (14th)
Team EPA: -61.1 (18th)
QB comparative value: +114.6
After 14 years as a starter, Rivers has exhausted his claim on excuses for the Chargers' consistent underachieving. That said, Rivers does not deserve blame for the team's 5-11 season in 2019. The primary culprit was just poor injury luck. The Chargers suffered 103 adjusted games lost, third most of all teams and most of teams with any expectations of success. Those injuries decimated their defense, which declined from eighth in efficiency in 2018 to 21st last year. And while Rivers' critical skill talent escaped mostly unscathed, he had little time to throw the ball behind an offensive line that allowed a 29.2% pressure rate. Rivers could see his skills erode any year now as he fast approaches 40 years old, but a new start in Indianapolis could also revitalize him. The Colts' offensive line finished sixth with a 25.9% allowed pressure rate in Andrew Luck's final season in 2018 and probably declined in 2019 only because of Jacoby Brissett's penchant for holding the ball too long; his 2.93-second average time to throw was the NFL's second slowest, according to Next Gen Stats.
Least comparative value
1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
QB EPA: +28.2 (18th)
Team EPA: +166.8 (first)
QB comparative value: -138.6
The quality of Brady's play has slipped in recent seasons. He might be able to blame his decade-low 60.8% completion percentage and 2.4% DVOA on a lack of receiving talent in New England last season. But his yearly decline from a 73.9% accuracy percentage in 2015 to 72.7% in 2016, 72.1% in 2017, 70.4% in 2018, and 66.9% in 2019 probably captures the skill decline one would expect of a quarterback who has entered his 40s. That said, Brady was far from a bad passer last season. His placement at the bottom of this list reflects the Patriots' otherworldly defensive talent (minus-25.5% DVOA, first) that would make almost any quarterback seem worse by comparison. That talent distribution is what makes the Patriots' transition to a new quarterback starter so fascinating for 2020. Unfortunately, the team's free-agency losses of defensive starters Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins were exacerbated by the opt-out losses of Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung. They still have their elite secondary, but the 2020 Patriots' defense could be dramatically worse than the 2019 edition.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
QB EPA: +70.5 (ninth)
Team EPA: +98.3 (second)
QB comparative value: -27.8
GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have engineered a team in San Francisco that probably could succeed with any competent quarterback. The 49ers' receivers averaged 6.9 and 6.6 yards after the catch the past two seasons, both top-four rates among teams from the past decade. In 2019, Garoppolo's receivers averaged about as many yards after the catch as he averaged with his throw depth (6.7 yards). Garoppolo is basically a Chiefs-era Alex Smith, steering a ship that succeeds because of its strategy and roster depth. That comparison might underrate Garoppolo as a talent because he never failed to perform in the way that Smith did early in his career before his reinvention. But given the 49ers' Super Bowl appearance last season, there is little reason to expect that we might find out if Garoppolo could do more.
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
QB EPA: +19.2 (20th)
Team EPA: +36.2 (fourth)
QB comparative value: -17.0
Allen made major strides in his sophomore season, but even his marked improvement from a minus-35.9% to a minus-11.8% passing DVOA couldn't pull him out of the bottom 10 quarterbacks in passing efficiency. His aptitude for rushing helped, but the Bills reached their total of 10 wins on the strength of their top-six defense (minus-11.5% DVOA). With the talent on the roster, head coach Sean McDermott probably could scheme his way to the playoffs with other quarterbacks with Allen's skill set. In fact, he did just that with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback in 2017, the year before he drafted Allen.
4. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
QB EPA: -14.2 (27th)
Team EPA: -3.6 (10th)
QB comparative value: -10.8
The Bears' defense faced the regression we expected after its historically great 2018 season (minus-26.0% DVOA, first). But even compared to a defense that was merely good in 2019 (minus-7.2%, eighth), Trubisky dragged the team down. After improving as a sophomore to a 3.6% DVOA and 71.0 QBR, Trubisky regressed in his third year to near his rookie levels of minus-11.0% and 39.5. And where he, like Allen, had buoyed his overall productivity with exceptional rushing efficiency, Trubisky inexplicably declined to a minus-17.6% rushing DVOA last season and had 20 fewer carries than he had in 2018. Without the overall success the teams of the bottom-three quarterbacks have enjoyed, the Bears seem ready to move on, trading for Nick Foles this offseason.
5. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
QB EPA: +38.8 (16th)
Team EPA: -8.4 (11th)
QB comparative value: +47.2
Wentz has a near-MVP season in his history that demonstrates his value in absolute terms. But the Eagles' response to their own run of injuries in 2018 and 2019 had an interesting side effect of reducing Wentz's importance to their success. In his career year in 2017, Wentz pushed the ball down the field with a 10.2-yard aDOT that was top five among regular starters. The past two seasons, that rate has dropped to 8.0 and 8.1 yards as the Eagles have shifted to a heavy reliance on 12 personnel. Wentz orchestrates that offense effectively, but a lot of quarterbacks could do about as well. Even the half-retired Josh McCown nearly won the team's playoff game against the Seahawks in Wentz's absence, throwing a lot of quick passes to tight end Dallas Goedert and relying on the team's No. 4 DVOA run defense (minus-18.5%) to keep the Eagles competitive.
6. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
QB EPA: -1.2 (23rd)
Team EPA: -56.5 (16th)
QB comparative value: +55.4
Mayfield was maybe the most disappointing quarterback of 2019 relative to expectations, but his landing in this sixth spot illustrates the entanglement of player and team in this sport. Yes, the Browns have the talent to be competitive. But unlike for passers such as Jackson and Garoppolo, Mayfield's coaches didn't put him in the best situation for his skill set. For example, Mayfield threw for 2.6 more yards per attempt on play-action passes last year than on traditional passes, a top-five differential in the league. But the Browns used play-action on only 28% of their attempts, a middle-of-the pack rate. Mayfield is primed for a rebound in 2020 with play-action friendly Kevin Stefanski at head coach. But with Freddie Kitchens calling plays, Mayfield looked like a weak link in an offense that had the talent to be one of the league's best.
7. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
QB EPA: +81.1 (sixth)
Team EPA: +22.7 (fifth)
QB comparative value: +58.4
Speaking of Stefanski, his former offense mirrored the 49ers' in its schemed non-reliance on the quality of its quarterback. His and head coach Mike Zimmer's strategies worked so well that Cousins landed right next to Mayfield in these rankings, much better in absolute terms but similarly weaker than his surrounding talent. They don't share the other teams' reputations, but the Vikings joined the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Patriots, and Saints as the only teams with above-average efficiencies in all three phases last season. Cousins landed in the less-valuable side of the scale because his offense relied more heavily on the run (50.5% run ratio, third) and play-calling. But his 14.3% DVOA was 10th best at the position.
8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
QB EPA: +63.0 (10th)
Team EPA: -0.6 (eighth)
QB comparative value: +63.6
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur might deserve blame for the abandonment of the Rodgers era that their Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks this offseason seem to represent. But it isn't fair to say the team lacked talent in 2019. The Packers might not have had a viable second receiver for Rodgers to target, but his offensive line protected him (28.7% allowed pressure rate, 12th) and blocked (4.63 adjusted line yards, fifth) for a run game that provided him with offensive balance. The free-agent additions of Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith elevated the defense from 29th to 15th in efficiency and 28th to ninth in efficiency against the pass. One could argue that Rodgers put as much a cap on the team's ceiling as their other prominent deficiencies. After posting better than a 10% passing DVOA every season between 2009 and 2014, Rodgers has done so only once in the five seasons since -- and not at all since 2016. If those rates accurately capture his likely future impact on the team, then perhaps the Packers are justified in planning his succession.
9. Sam Darnold, New York Jets
QB EPA: -5.2 (24th)
Team EPA: -78.3 (20th)
QB comparative value: +73.1
Darnold hasn't progressed any more quickly than fellow 2018 draftee Josh Allen, but he enjoys a better standing in these rankings because he has more believable excuses for his minus-20.4% DVOA and 36.4 QBR last year. The Jets suffered the most adjusted games lost (160.1) of any team in 2019, and the concentration of those missed games on defense and the offensive line sabotaged Darnold's chances for success. Without balance from a run game, and with consistent pressure from the worst pass-blocking line (39.4%) in football, Darnold might even deserve praise for his tenable poor efficiency. When he played, he led the Jets to a winning record. Injury substitute Luke Falk couldn't win either of his two starts. And Falk's minus-72.3% DVOA and 8.9 QBR were much worse than Darnold's rates, albeit over a small sample of opportunities.
10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
QB EPA: +73.8 (seventh)
Team EPA: -2.9 (ninth)
QB comparative value: +76.6
Tannehill isn't the centerpiece of the Titans' rushing attack the way Jackson is for the Ravens, but he still owes much of the credit for his 2019 breakout to an offensive game plan that highlighted his strengths and hid his weaknesses. The Titans relied on a 31% play-action rate that was fifth highest in football and enjoyed the biggest gain of 5.0 yards per pass over their traditional attempts. And even though Tannehill routinely aired the ball down the field, his receivers still dropped the fewest passes (16) and averaged the second-most yards after the catch (6.2) in football. That all added up to a top-five passing efficiency (28.0%), but Tannehill sabotaged a bit of that value with a 9.8% sack rate that was second highest among regular starters despite the team's top-eight allowed pressure rate of 27.6%. He could just as easily be at the No. 10 spot of the most valuable side of this article, but whatever your perspective, Tannehill does not seem like the type of quarterback who could elevate a poor team around him. On the Titans, luckily, he shouldn't have to.
Most accurate
Stephen A. Smith doesn't see the Colts as Super Bowl contenders due to Philip Rivers' lack of mobility.
In 2019, Drew Brees became the second quarterback in NFL history to complete 74% of his passes in a single season, joining only ... Drew Brees from 2018. In fact, Brees has five of the six highest completion percentages on record, as he has turned the short, accurate passing game into an art form in its own right.
He's not alone, however; NFL teams are completing passes at rates higher than ever before. When Brees entered the league in 2001, teams completed just 59% of their passes. Last season, teams completed 64% of their passes, as the short, lower-risk passing game becomes more and more popular. This leaves us with a couple of problems when using raw completion percentage to compare players. An astonishing number a generation ago can seem downright pedestrian by modern standards; passers are simply expected to complete more passes nowadays than they were a generation ago. Degree of difficulty also starts muddying the waters. Was Brees' 74% completion rate, on a steady diet of short, high-percentage plays, really better than Ryan Tannehill's 70% completion rate on passes thrown more than three yards further downfield on average?
To help answer these questions, Football Outsiders has been using game-charting data since 2006 to create a stat called passing plus-minus, which estimates how many passes a quarterback completed compared to what an average quarterback would have completed based on each throw's distance, the yards needed for a first down, and to which side of the field the pass was thrown.
This is turned into a rate stat: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE, that shows just how much more accurate a passer is than league average, adjusted for the situations the passer found himself in. Note that our CPOE might be different from other models found elsewhere on the internet because we're removing passes thrown away on purpose, batted down at the line or thrown when the quarterback was hit in motion.
Here are the 10 most accurate QBs from the 2019 season by CPOE:
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
CPOE: +8.5%
Take out throwaways and tipped passes, and Brees completed 79.8% of his passes in 2019; an average quarterback would have been expected to complete just 71.3%. For most quarterbacks, that would be a career-best number, but for Brees, it's just another year on a Hall of Fame résumé. He had a plus-6.1% CPOE for the entire 2010s; no one else topped plus-3.6%. Our database goes back to 2006, and Brees is the top performer there, too, with his plus-5.6% CPOE beating Kurt Warner's plus-5.1% to take the top spot. It's not just racking up completions on easy, quick routes, either; last year, Brees had a CPOE of plus-8.6% on passes traveling at least 10 yards in the air, second best in the league. Even as he enters his 40s, Brees remains the most accurate passer of the 21st century.
2. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
CPOE: +7.7%
Tannehill's career revival in Tennessee is both a career outlier and not entirely out of the blue. Coming into 2019, Tannehill had a career CPOE of plus-0.9%, with CPOEs over 3.0% in both 2014 and 2016. Those are above-average numbers, but nothing like what he was able to do last season. The pressing question for 2020 is how much of that sudden improvement comes from Arthur Smith's system that was heavy on play-action, and how much was just an insane hot streak for half a season. Tannehill has always had a nice deep ball and the ability to make reads when given time, which meshed really well with Smith's offensive philosophy, so there's every reason to believe Tannehill will be good once again in 2020, if perhaps not this good.
3. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
CPOE: +6.2%
Cousins, another player who benefited tremendously from play-action passing, led the league with a plus-9.3% CPOE on passes at least 10 yards downfield. The Vikings have done spectacularly well in this stat in recent years; they're the only team to have at least a plus-5.0% CPOE in each of the past five seasons, with Cousins following Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater. Can Cousins make it six-for-six in 2020? The loss of Stefon Diggs hurts; Cousins' CPOE falls to plus-5.0% if you remove Diggs' targets from the equation.
4. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
CPOE: +6.1%
Throw early, Raiders! Carr led the league with a plus-9.2% CPOE on first downs, completing 83% of his passes. Yes, this was with an average pass depth of just 6.3 yards, but when you're completing four-fifths of those targets, you're keeping the ball moving. Under Jon Gruden, Carr has seen his CPOE jump from minus-2.3% to plus-4.8%. This can be attributed in part to Carr becoming more of a game manager; his average depth of target has dropped by over a yard, and his expected completion percentage has gone up by three points as the Raiders have given Carr simpler tasks to perform in the passing game. We'll see if the addition of Henry Ruggs tempts Carr to throw deeper in Las Vegas, and if his newfound accuracy can be extended to deeper targets.
5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
CPOE: +4.9%
Passing in Seattle is hard. Wilson had a plus-1.6% CPOE playing at home in 2019, and a plus-8.9% CPOE when on the road. That's an extreme example of the split, but Wilson has had a better road CPOE in five of the past six seasons; Seattle's frequently rainy conditions make it a difficult place to play. Opposing quarterbacks have a minus-1.8% CPOE in Seattle since 2006, making Wilson's sustained success in the Pacific Northwest all the more impressive. There's room for improvement, too; Wilson had a minus-0.8% CPOE when targeting DK Metcalf, which might go up as Metcalf continues to develop.
6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
CPOE: +3.2%
Ryan's late-game heroics kept the Falcons competitive in more games than one would expect looking at their overall stats. Ryan had a plus-8.5% CPOE in the fourth quarter and overtime, and led the league with 13.3 completions above expected in the final frame; this was key in comeback upsets over the playoff-bound Eagles and 49ers a year ago. While his 2016 MVP season is a career outlier, Ryan ended the 2010s with a passing plus-minus of plus-178.9, third highest in the NFL, behind only Brees and Philip Rivers.
7. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
CPOE: +2.9%
Speaking of which, Rivers had his most accurate season since 2014 last year. Accuracy isn't everything, of course -- Rivers' DVOA fell to 6.6% after being in the mid-20s in each of the previous two seasons -- but the Colts are getting one of the decade's most accurate passers who still has some juice left in the tank, at least when given time to throw in the pocket. Rivers was especially accurate when throwing to his running backs (plus-5.8% CPOE) and tight ends (plus-6.5% CPOE to Hunter Henry), numbers that could bode well for Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle in Indianapolis.
8. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
CPOE: +2.7%
Mahomes makes the impossible look easy. On plays with an expected completion percentage of 50.0% or less, Mahomes completed 51.7% of his passes, good for a plus-16.5% CPOE. That was second highest in the league, just behind Jimmy Garoppolo, but Mahomes had 58 such targets and Garoppolo just 35. No quarterback created more value out of low-percentage throws than Mahomes did in 2019. The flip side is that his CPOE on throws with an expected completion percentage above 50% was just plus-0.7%, 16th in the league, and he had a negative CPOE on passes that traveled between 0 and 9 yards through the air. If he can ever recalibrate his howitzer to hit the short stuff as well as he hits the deep stuff, he might just make it in the NFL.
9. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
CPOE: +2.6%
A note for 2020: Watson had a plus-5.1% CPOE when targeting DeAndre Hopkins last year, and a plus-1.4% CPOE when targeting everyone else; losing his top wideout is going to hurt. Some of that could be offset by just letting him throw deep more; he had a plus-4.5% CPOE on passes that traveled at least 10 yards through the air. Interestingly, most of that deep success last year came from targeting Kenny Stills and Will Fuller V, not Hopkins, as Watson spent more time throwing to the slot in 2019. Expect more of that in 2020 with Hopkins taking his talents to Arizona.
10. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
CPOE: +2.4%
"Not bad for a wide receiver," as Jackson quipped at a postgame news conference last season. The reigning MVP saw his CPOE jump from minus-5.5% as a rookie to plus-2.4% in 2019, the second-biggest increase in football after Tannehill's. To pull that off without an established threat at wide receiver is even more impressive, with Mark Ingram, Hayden Hurst and Miles Boykin his top targets by accuracy. Jackson was in full command of Greg Roman's offense, deadly when given any sort of space to work in. If Devin Duvernay and some of the other reinforcements to the receiving corps work out, Jackson is in line for another bump here next season.
Least accurate
The least accurate quarterbacks of 2019 form a motley list, filled with rookies struggling to find their footing, backups forced into action by necessity, and players who lost their starting job for 2020. Oh, and one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, too.
1. Dwayne Haskins, Washington
CPOE: -6.7%
We have two pieces of optimism for Haskins going forward. Yes, Haskins' CPOE was worst in the league, but minus-6.7% is a pretty decent number for "worst in the league." The last time the league's worst CPOE was better than that was Brandon Weeden's minus-5.7% in 2013. Haskins is last because no one was extraordinarily terrible last season. In addition, Haskins' CPOE improved as the season went along, going from minus-10.9% in his first 100 attempts to minus-1.9% in his last 90. Haskins needs to improve dramatically in Year 2, but at least we saw progress toward the end of a tumultuous rookie season.
2. Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
CPOE: -4.0%
Proven: Exceptional mustaches do not bring with them tremendous accuracy. Minshew's minus-6.4% CPOE on short passes was the worst in the league, though he did manage a plus-8.4% CPOE when asked to throw deep. For the record, Nick Foles provided the opposite skill set, with a plus-6.2% CPOE short and a minus-12.1% CPOE deep, for a total of plus-2.4% CPOE. If only the Jaguars could have used them to their respective strengths. Does anyone know how Foles would look with a false mustache?
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
CPOE: -3.8%
One of these things is not like the others ...
While Brady's accuracy was slightly better than that of Haskins or Minshew, he threw 130 more passes than either one, meaning he ended up dead last in passing plus-minus, the counting version of this stat. Brady was simply not on the same page as his receivers; his minus-5.1% CPOE to wideouts put him ahead of Andy Dalton. He struggled with what should be his easiest throws: On passes thrown five yards downfield or less, he had a minus-4.7% CPOE. Even more worrisome for someone who just turned 43, he got worse as the season went along, dropping from minus-0.3% to a league-worst minus-7.5% in the second half of the season. You definitely have to give him some credit for dealing with arguably the worst collection of skill-position talent in his career, but he also had too many passes thrown too low for his receivers to pick up, or way ahead of his receivers to a point where they had no chance to catch the ball. Sports Info Solutions had Brady eighth from the bottom with a 73.4% catchable pass rate and fifth worst with a 65.7% on-target rate. This is not a death sentence; Brett Favre had the worst plus-minus in the league in 2006 and went on to make the Pro Bowl in his next three seasons. But Brady's accuracy and rapport with his receivers need to improve if the Buccaneers are going to meet their high expectations for 2020.
4. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
CPOE: -3.7%
After popping to just above average in 2018, Trubisky matched his rookie mark in CPOE last season. Matt Nagy and the Bears coaches made things as easy as possible for Trubisky, giving him the easiest throws of his career; his expected completion percentage was 70.3%. Trubisky still could not deliver. His worst numbers came in the most crucial situations: a minus-4.5% CPOE on third down, a minus-8.2% CPOE in the fourth quarter, a minus-6.2% CPOE on deep passes, all at or near the worst marks in the league. In his career, Trubisky has been most accurate throwing to his tight ends, which might explain why the Bears added roughly one thousand of them in the offseason. It's one last attempt to see Trubisky realize his potential.
5. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
CPOE: -3.7%
Dalton's last year in Cincinnati was his least accurate, though the loss of A.J. Green certainly didn't make matters any easier. Dalton's career CPOE now sits at minus-0.2%, making him the closest to average in the 2010s among all passers with at least 3,500 attempts. Dalton is the epitome of the average passer; one who won't elevate the talent around him but one who can excel when surrounded with talent. That's much more palatable as a backup option than a starting quarterback.
6. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
CPOE: -2.8%
Mayfield's biggest negative split was on throws up the middle, where he was expected to complete 69.5% of his passes but could manage only 60.2%. He had a particularly tough time hooking up with Odell Beckham, as they didn't seem to have any chemistry in their first year together; Mayfield had a minus-4.3% CPOE when targeting Beckham. Was Mayfield trying to force the ball to his new receiver too often? Was Beckham not getting favorable looks in Freddie Kitchens' scheme? It's a little from column A, a little from column B, with perhaps some overthinking from Mayfield thrown into the mix. The hope is that Kevin Stefanski can sort out an offense that was significantly less than the sum of its parts in 2019.
7. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
CPOE: -2.6%
Brissett's CPOE was essentially unchanged from 2017, when he served as the Colts' starter as an injury replacement for Andrew Luck. Brissett's decision-making remains slow and he's conservative to a fault; a combination that doesn't bode well when everyone in the building knows he has to throw. Brissett's CPOE dropped to minus-8.7% in the fourth quarter, when he had to take larger chances in order to keep Indianapolis in football games; remove the last frame and his CPOE jumps to minus-0.6%. Brissett is fine as a backup, but there's a reason the Colts went out and grabbed Philip Rivers in the offseason.
T-8. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
CPOE: -2.4%
Jones ended up with the second-best CPOE among rookies, though there was a significant gap between him and Kyler Murray at plus-0.5%. Jones had a confidence that his arm couldn't always match; he had a minus-5.6% CPOE on throws 10 or more yards downfield, with below-expected accuracy to every intended receiver with 10 or more targets. We appreciate the urge to gamble, but Jones was far better getting the ball out on quick drops than when he embraced his inner gunslinger.
T-8. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
CPOE: -2.4%
Yes, Allen remains in the bottom 10, but a CPOE of minus-2.4% represents a great leap forward from his league-worst minus-8.3% as a rookie; the difference between not being able to hit the broad side of a barn and missing the farm entirely. Allen is still exceptionally inaccurate at the deep ball, though his CPOE improved from minus-10.6% to minus-6.3% on passes 15 or more yards downfield, a mark that's still the worst in the league, but no longer a massive outlier at the bottom. Where he made great strides, however, was in the intermediate passing game. On passes between 10 and 14 yards through the air, Allen's CPOE jumped from minus-6.1% to plus-2.0%, as replacing Zay Jones with John Brown and Cole Beasley paid off. Allen will need to make another significant leap in Year 3 if he wants to become an above-average passer, but progress is progress.
10. Case Keenum, Washington
CPOE: -1.5%
As a Viking in 2017, Keenum put up a CPOE of plus-5.1%, second best in the league. This came out of the blue, and disappeared just as quickly; Keenum has had a negative CPOE in every other season in the league, and career numbers ranging from minus-1.2% to minus-3.1% if you ignore that one magic season. Keenum's a high-floor backup who can take advantage of easy reads, but shouldn't be counted on to do anything more complicated than that; 2019 should be the last time Keenum enters a season as the starting quarterback.
Most aggressive
Ryan Clark explains the meaning behind Dak Prescott saying the team wasn't "as smart as we needed to be" in previous years and the new coaching staff is fixing the problems.
Football Outsiders created a metric called ALEX to measure quarterbacks' aggressiveness on third downs. (Yes, of course, Alex Smith had something to do with it.) ALEX stands for "air yards less expected," and measures the average difference between a quarterback's pass depth and the yards he needs to gain on third down to create a new first down. The league's ALEX had actually been on a downward trend the past few seasons before rising to plus-1.9 in 2019, up from plus-1.1 in 2018.
Naturally, this was the first year that Alex Smith hasn't been a starter since we created ALEX, but other trends had something to do with it. There's been a league-wide trend toward more aggressive playcalling in general, so that's part of it. Then there's the fact that fourth-down attempts are on the up -- that has made coaches more willing to take an incompletion on third-and-short.
The most aggressive quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes, actually tumbled off the top 10 list in 2019. Some of that undoubtedly has to do with the ankle (and later knee) injuries that befell the Super Bowl MVP, but another factor is Mahomes' average intended air yards falling from 9.2 in his MVP year to 8.6 last season. That doesn't sound like a huge drop, but 9.2 would have put him in the top 10 in 2019; 8.6 put him in a four-way tie for 12th.
So instead, our most aggressive quarterback on third down is a man who is no stranger to the top of these leaderboards:
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: +4.1 ALEX
Rodgers has finished in the top five in ALEX each of the past five seasons, and even in an extremely down 2019 season on the whole, he still managed to be ultra aggressive on third down. However, his efficiency was way, way down overall on those third-down throws, as he found just 5.6% DVOA on them. (DVOA measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent, explained further here.) He completed just 47 first downs or touchdowns on 140 total attempts that didn't involve Davante Adams. The Packers looked at this, and then decided to do nothing about it, so tough luck, Aaron. Jordan Love will listen to your anger on the bench.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins: +4.0 ALEX
One guy who has never been afraid to cut it loose as a starter, Fitzpatrick had plus-1.9 ALEX for the Bucs in Todd Monken's Air Raid attack in 2018. His entire successful NFL career has always been predicated on throwing the ball up for grabs to talented receivers downfield, and the only negative ALEX he had in his career was with the Texans in 2014. DeVante Parker had a career season with Fitzpatrick, catching 15 of 27 third-down targets for first downs or touchdowns. Sure, there were some interceptions added to the mix. That's Ryan Fitzpatrick's game, baby. If he were accurate with all of them, you would have to pay him $25 million per year. Instead, you get to watch a man resembling a gigantic lawn gnome help your daily fantasy lineup. You're the real winner here, is what we're saying.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: +3.7 ALEX
One great thing about running the ball on first and second down is it makes it hard to run a bunch of routes that don't go past the sticks on third down. Seventy-two of Wilson's 152 third-down throws were on third-and-5 or shorter. Tyler Lockett had a 102.4% DVOA on 25 Wilson third-down targets, and that was a down year for the pairing after 2018's 168.7%. Wilson has always been an aggressive thrower, but that has been dialed up way more since being put into Brian Schottenheimer's offense in 2018 -- his career high in ALEX prior to that was plus-2.2 in 2015. Combine this with his plus-2.8 in 2018, and we have a marked trend of Wilson throwing deeper and deeper.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +3.4 ALEX
Allen has never met a deep pass he didn't like throwing, and third downs were no exception. Allen had a minus-6.6% DVOA on his third-down throws, turning just 49 of the 141 throws into first downs or touchdowns. That includes just 28 of 69 throws that went 10 yards or less, where his inaccuracy has been a consistent bugaboo for the first couple of years of his starting career. The good news? In Minnesota, Stefon Diggs turned 12 of his 19 third-down targets under 10 yards into first downs or touchdowns. If he can't help Allen, the problem is with Allen.
5. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: +3.0 ALEX
You would expect a quarterback with a Howitzer arm to throw a ton of passes far downfield. However, Stafford has not consistently been among the top 10 quarterbacks in ALEX over the course of his career. He has been in the top tier a few times, with a plus-2.1 eighth-place finish in 2013 and a plus-2.3 11th-place finish in 2014, but even when he had Calvin Johnson as a receiver, that's as high as Stafford had made it on the aggression leaderboard. Enter Darrell Bevell, who quietly did excellent work with the Detroit passing game last year. Stafford not only gripped-and-ripped it in his starts, but he also had a 37.6% DVOA on his third-down passes that was the highest of any player on this list, with the exception of our 10th-place finisher. Don't sleep on those Detroit receivers this year.
6. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: +2.9 ALEX
Tannehill was consistently a plus-1.0-or-higher ALEX guy for the Dolphins since 2014, and this was yet another area in which Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith & Co. took him to the next level in 2019. Tennessee's franchise quarterback had a 19.5% DVOA and nine touchdown throws on his 91 third-down dropbacks. Was the secret weapon A.J. Brown? Or Jonnu Smith? No, it was actually the depth of the Tennessee receiving corps that came through on third down. Tannehill had 13 first downs or touchdowns on 17 throws to Tajae Sharpe and Kalif Raymond in 2019. That shows you how deep Tannehill's processor goes when he has time to work, even if it's not necessarily a result we think will be repeated in 2020.
7. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: +2.7 ALEX
Second in ALEX behind Rodgers in 2017, Wentz has alternated aggressive and unaggressive seasons since his debut. He had just a plus-0.2 ALEX in 2016, and a plus-0.5 ALEX in 2018 coming off major injury. Surprisingly, Wentz's yards per attempt fell to 6.7 in 2019, but it was mostly an early-down phenomenon. He averaged a target distance of 7.4 yards on first and second downs, but 9.8 on third downs. In Wentz's first game of the season, with DeSean Jackson playing, he converted four of his five long third-down attempts for first downs or touchdowns -- three of them to Jackson. In every other game, he completed a total of 11 of 40 third-down throws that went more than 15 yards. Yeah, a healthy Jackson might make a difference in 2020.
8. Sam Darnold, New York Jets: +2.5 ALEX
A tale of splits:
Weeks 1-11: 0 completions to Robby Anderson on third-down deep balls in seven attempts
Weeks 12-17: five touchdowns or first downs to Robby Anderson on third-down deep balls in eight attempts
Thankfully for the Jets, they made sure to immediately ruin that blossoming chemistry by letting Anderson walk in free agency. Darnold has clearly proved he'll take chances on third down and is kind of in the Tannehill zone where he'll take sacks trying to let the process happen: He had 14 third-down sacks in just 13 starts last year, with, again, a big split between early and late: nine of them before Week 12, just five after. Darnold will try to get on the same page with a brand-new set of receivers outside of Jamison Crowder this year. Hopefully, for his sake, Denzel Mims becomes a long-term fixture, though the rookie has battled injury issues in camp.
9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: +2.5 ALEX
Traditionally not a big deep passer, Ryan actually finished with negative ALEX in his MVP season in 2016. He hadn't had an ALEX above 2.0 since 2014 -- which, not so coincidentally, was also the last time Dirk Koetter coordinated the Atlanta offense before being hired by Tampa Bay. Most of his job description was basically to let Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley go get it. Sixty-six third-down throws at those two were rewarded with 39 first downs or touchdowns and 100%+ DVOAs for each player (120.1% when targeting Jones, 155.5% when targeting Ridley). On third-down throws to non-Jones/Ridley/Austin Hooper receivers, Ryan converted just 24 third downs in 85 throws. The rest of the depth chart remains pretty barren, and Hooper left in the offseason, so you can probably guess which two players will have roughly half the third-down targets this year.
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +2.3 ALEX
All tides rose on third down with Prescott in 2019, as the Cowboys' franchise player had a 47.1% DVOA that led all qualifying quarterbacks except for Lamar Jackson and Mahomes. Such was the scope of Kellen Moore's offense that even former Monday Night Football commentator Jason Witten converted eight of 16 third-down attempts for touchdowns or first downs. Prescott had not been above plus-1.0 ALEX since his rookie season, when he also finished with a wildly high DVOA. Mike McCarthy has pledged to leave the offense alone and we look forward to another year of Prescott testing defenses downfield on third down.
Least aggressive
1. Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints: -1.4 ALEX
Bridgewater, of course, hasn't been a qualified starter (minimum 200 passes) for a long time since his devastating preseason knee injury in 2016. But when he was a starter in 2014 and 2015, this was part of the normal game plan for him. Bridgewater carried a minus-0.7 ALEX in 2015, and a minus-0.8 ALEX in 2014, finishing ahead of only Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert among qualified starters in both seasons. But part of last year's number was a general predilection to throwing short on the part of the entire Saints offense; nobody had a lower average depth of target than Bridgewater last season, at 6.2. Bridgewater's average actually increased to 6.9 intended air yards on third-down targets. The 0.9% DVOA, however, wasn't great. The Panthers will want to make sure Joe Brady's offense offers a lot of Christian McCaffrey underneath targets on third down in 2020.
2. Case Keenum, Washington: -1.3 ALEX
A perennial member of the least aggressive list, Keenum was ninth in 2018, and even in his scorching hot Vikings season in 2017 had only plus-0.4 ALEX. Keenum's career high in ALEX was with the Texans in his rookie season, at plus-1.3. Washington attempted just nine throws of 15 or more yards with Keenum -- he surprisingly completed five of them for first downs. He also completed one to the opposing defense for a touchdown. Reunited with Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, Keenum will be a competent backup for the Browns; just don't expect a bunch of successful deep shots if he's forced into action.
3. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts: -0.3 ALEX
Although he started 15 games last season, you can count the number of deep attempts on third down Brissett took on two hands: the number was 9. Brissett finished the season with an 18.1% DVOA on third down but was never a threat to make a play more than it was. That is why he has a front-row seat to watch Philip Rivers this season. Don't feel too bad for him though -- he has a $21.1 million cap hit thanks to the contract he agreed to before the Colts played in 2019. Frank Reich's offense has been surprisingly unaggressive on third-down throws. Andrew Luck had a plus-0.1 ALEX in 2018. Rivers had scores of plus-0.6 ALEX in 2015 and plus-1.9 in 2014 under Reich. Only Carson Wentz's MVP season in Philadelphia stands out as a high-ALEX offense under Reich.
4. Joe Flacco, Denver Broncos: -0.3 ALEX
Starting to see a trend of nonstarting quarterbacks develop here? Flacco has a huge arm, but he also has been a "Third down? Checkdown!" guy for most of the past three seasons, where he never rose above plus-2.0 ALEX. Flacco had the second-lowest third-down DVOA of any qualifying quarterback last year at minus-60.6%, and it was pretty clear that the Broncos looked much better after Drew Lock took over the offense. Now with the Jets, Flacco is essentially trying to be the next Ryan Fitzpatrick. Remember the deep ball, Joe!
5. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.2 ALEX
The Steelers fell into an ultraconservative offense without Ben Roethlisberger last year, and were running it unsuccessfully on second-and-long often, so Rudolph made lemons out of bruised lemons with his third-down play. JuJu Smith-Schuster's 13 third-down targets yielded just four first downs or touchdowns. The Steelers spent the entirety of the last 15 weeks of the season looking like a run-and-gun basketball offense with Yinka Dare at point guard when third down hit.
6. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers: -0.1 ALEX
This is an "it's the offense" thread. As you probably surmised from Matt Ryan's description above, the Kyle Shanahan offense trends more toward shorter throws. Be it Garoppolo, Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard, the San Francisco starting quarterback often distributes the ball shorter under Shanahan. It should be pointed out that this, unlike the rest of Shanahan's strategies, might be a bit less effective than you'd expect. Garoppolo's third-down pass DVOA was 12.7% last year. On first down, it was 21.7%. Defenses really seemed to pick up on George Kittle as the season wore on -- Kittle converted 15 of his first 21 third-down pass targets for first downs or touchdowns. From Week 12 on, Garoppolo completed just four of 14 third-down targets to Kittle for first downs or touchdowns.
7. Dwayne Haskins Jr., Washington: +0.2 ALEX
Here's your most ineffective qualifying third-down quarterback of 2019. Haskins had a minus-82.5% DVOA on 75 third-down targets, and only a 27% success rate. That said, Football Outsiders Almanac 2020 makes a fairly compelling case that Haskins was a quick improver in his starts, and that is borne out by the third-down numbers as well. Haskins converted third downs for first downs or touchdowns on 10 of his 19 attempts during Weeks 14-16. He also had a 65.4% DVOA targeting Steven Sims on 13 third-down attempts. They're baby steps, but the Washington offense was defunct in so many ways last year -- and Haskins was improving so quickly -- that it's probably worth giving Haskins a second chance before we decide he is a checkdown artist.
8. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: +0.7 ALEX
Speaking of not judging a rookie too quickly, Pat Shurmur has tended to make his quarterbacks into short throwers on third down as well. Eli Manning's 2018 yielded a minus-0.5 ALEX, and neither of Shurmur's Minnesota starters cleared plus-0.4 ALEX. The interesting thing about Shurmur is that his quarterbacks have generally had a fairly low average depth of target to begin with. Sam Bradford finished with a league-low 6.8 yards in 2016, and neither Keenum nor Manning climbed above 8.0. Jones actually made the offense more aggressive than it normally would be, and he had a 15.9% DVOA on third downs along the way, which isn't shabby at all. It was also good for him to get some experience working with conservative coaches, because here comes Jason Garrett to try to beat it into his head again.
9. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: +0.8 ALEX
Maybe you didn't expect this one after seeing Bridgewater earlier, but we told you this offense was pretty loath to attack downfield and that's something that Brees doesn't do all that often at this stage of his career either. He attempted only 13 deep (16 yards or longer) passes on third down total, though he did convert seven of them for first downs or touchdowns. Brees' average depth of target of 6.7 yards was higher than those of only Bridgewater, Garoppolo, and Derek Carr last season. Despite being a sure bet for the Hall of Fame and the most accurate quarterback in the game, Brees clearly has limitations with the deep ball at this stage of his career. Luckily, the offense is so well designed -- and Michael Thomas is so good -- that he was able to post a 25.7% DVOA on third-down passes anyway. It's not something that's going to keep the Saints from being good -- just something that might pop up in a few games a year, as it did in the surprising wild-card loss last season.
10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: +1.0 ALEX
This was a major decline and one of the first times we've seen Brady carrying an ALEX this low in his career. Brady was tied for fifth with a plus-2.8 ALEX in 2018 and hadn't finished at plus-1.0 or below since 2010. Of course, a lot of that was about the receiving corps and how it shifted without Rob Gronkowski and Josh Gordon. The Patriots were no longer able to bring threats deep. Brady had just a 7.1% DVOA targeting Julian Edelman on third downs last season, as defenses stacked the box. The most frequent target on his deep third-down throws was ... Jakobi Meyers, who caught one of three targets and drew a 24-yard defensive pass interference call on another. Now in Tampa, Brady absolutely has the right weapons back with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and, yes, Gronk. Was 2019 a blip, or the first indication of a real decline?