Ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent for 2020

Quarterbacks have generated a year of dramatic risers and fallers in Football Outsiders' ranking of teams by their talent that is under 25 years old. With the public pressure on teams to start their rookie passers in Week 1 -- or at least as soon as their placeholder veterans lose a few games -- it's little wonder that players such as Baker Mayfield can swing their teams' standings by 10 or more spots once they accumulate more than their few hundred freshman pass attempts.

After a different sort of regression, one such player propelled his team to the top spot for 2020. Despite their disappointing playoff exits the past two seasons, they are in even better shape than the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs to make Super Bowl trips over the next few seasons.

These ratings consider not just talent under age 25, but also the value and length of those players' current contracts. This will push up the teams with productive players who have several years left on inexpensive rookie contracts and push down the teams that have already had to, or will soon have to, pay their experienced young talent.

Head here for more information on our ranking methodology, and go here for intel on some stats we reference throughout. You can learn more about these and other Football Outsiders statistics from this article, the Football Outsiders glossary or in the newly released Football Outsiders Almanac for 2020.

Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are as of Sept. 1, 2020. "Blue chip" players are cornerstone assets from whom teams will likely derive their biggest future value. Players are considered "graduated" if they have turned 25. Read through the full file 1 to 32, or jump to your favorite team by clicking on a link here:

Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

1. Baltimore Ravens

2019 ranking: 25
Blue-chip players: Lamar Jackson, QB; Marlon Humphrey, CB; Orlando Brown, RT; Mark Andrews, TE; Marquise Brown, WR
Notable graduated players: Bradley Bozeman, LG; Chuck Clark, SS; Gus Edwards, RB

Football Outsiders research has shown that quarterbacks tend to make their biggest performance jumps from Year 1 to Year 2, but Lamar Jackson's sophomore breakout was the Bob Beamon of those.

As a rookie, Jackson was a product of a system that was designed to highlight his strengths and avoid his weaknesses. He was an inefficient passer with a 58% completion rate and -9.2% DVOA, but he only threw 23 passes per game. In 2019, Jackson became the kind of quarterback who can carry a franchise no matter their system or other problems. His passing rates spiked to 66% completions and 34.9% DVOA. His rushing efficiency flipped from -27.2% to 20.5% DVOA thanks in large part to a reduction from 12 to nine fumbles despite eight additional starts -- Jackson seems to have developed a talent to avoid big hits even when he cuts toward the middle of the field and even when defenders appear to take the proper angle to tackle him. Altogether, Jackson led the position with an 81.8 QBR and was named NFL MVP.

But the Ravens don't need Jackson to solve all of their problems. They continue to use a system that takes advantage of Jackson's talents, but they have also accumulated exceptional young depth on both sides of the ball. Jackson's favorite target -- Mark Andrews -- came from his same 2018 draft class. The third-round tight end finished seventh with 123 DYAR at a position whose efficiency leaders tend to be more experienced veterans and made his teammate and fellow tight end Hayden Hurst expendable in a trade with the Falcons. Jackson seldom needed to open up the offense beyond its running game and tight end targets, but 2019 first-rounder Marquise Brown still stretched the field with more than one-fifth of his catches coming on passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air. Miles Boykin can do the same and should also contribute more in the red zone in 2020 with his exceptional size at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds and leaping ability. Third-round receiver Devin Duvernay complements Brown and Boykin with his slot quickness, and second-round running back J.K. Dobbins should seamlessly replace an aging Mark Ingram either in 2021 when Ingram's contract escalates or in 2022 when it expires. Finally, right tackle Orlando Brown was one of five Baltimore linemen with 500 or more snaps and a 1.5% blown block rate or better. His development into a Pro Bowl blocker should help the team survive the loss of retired eventual Hall of Famer Marshal Yanda.

Neither pass-rusher Jaylon Ferguson (15 hurries) nor 25-year-old Tyus Bowser (22) ascended to fully replace Za'Darius Smith (66), who left for the Packers in 2019 in free agency. But the Ravens maintained a top-three pass defense thanks in large part to excellent coverage anchored by All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey's 67% coverage success rate and 5.0 allowed yards per target were top six among positional qualifiers, ahead even of Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (57%, 6.4). If the Ravens had any weakness in 2019, it was on run defense. But the team likely erased that deficiency with its first- and third-round draft selections of linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison, the former of whom has the speed and athleticism to excel in coverage and play all three downs. The Ravens have so much young talent that they could have pushed for the top spot in these rankings even without Jackson under center.

2. New York Giants

2019 ranking: 5
Blue-chip players: Will Hernandez, LG; Saquon Barkley, RB; Daniel Jones, QB; Dexter Lawrence, DT; Andrew Thomas, OT
Notable graduated players: Evan Engram, TE; B.J. Hill, DE

The Giants are not the Ravens. While the latter climbed to the top of the list on the strength of exceptional talent evaluation and development, the former reached their place in the rankings with volume. GM Dave Gettleman inherited a three-win Giants team with the No. 2 pick in 2018, made a slew of trades and acquisitions in opposition to analytics, and earned two more top-six picks on the heels of five- and four-win seasons. And yet, Gettleman could have the last laugh. He might not have maximized his return on investment in Saquon Barkley and Dexter Lawrence at their draft positions in the first round. But Barkley again broke a tackle on more than one-fifth of his touches in 2019 and looks like a generational running back at still just 23 years old. And with 18 hurries in his rookie season, Lawrence showed surprising versatility for a player who looks the part of an old-school run-stopper.

Still, the success or failure of this promising Giants roster will rest on the shoulders of quarterback Daniel Jones. After a modestly productive college career, Jones was the biggest surprise of Gettleman's many surprising draft picks at sixth overall in 2019, nine spots ahead of Dwayne Haskins who many scouts preferred. But at least compared to the historically inefficient Haskins, Jones enjoyed a successful rookie season with middling 62% completion and 53.6 QBR rates. His league-leading 18 fumbles sabotaged his overall efficiency last year but do not erase the promise of his future years.

And while the Odell Beckham trade subtracted a young, talented receiver who could have helped Jones reach his potential, Gettleman has since added much more talent around his franchise quarterback. That starts on the offensive line. Left guard Will Hernandez has a standout 1.3% blown block rate in his two professional seasons. First- and third-round tackles Andrew Thomas and Matt Peart will hopefully slow the pass rush that had few problems beating big-money free agent Nate Solder (4.0% blown block rate) in 2019; Solder has opted out for 2020. And at receiver, fifth-round sophomore Darius Slayton might not replace Beckham, but his 9.6% DVOA rookie season showcased badly needed efficiency and field-stretching to complement a core of skill talent that otherwise does its best work near the line of scrimmage.

The Giants' budding defensive talent could take a hit pending the fallout of cornerback DeAndre Baker's criminal charges. Still, the team has several young assets on that side of the ball, especially at safety where Julian Love's outstanding substitute play in late 2019 leaves the team with an extra option at the position with Jabrill Peppers poised to return healthy and second-round steal Xavier McKinney poised to start immediately in his rookie season.

3. Arizona Cardinals

2019 ranking: 10
Blue-chip players: Kyler Murray, QB; Budda Baker, SS; Isaiah Simmons, OLB
Notable graduated players: Haason Reddick, LB

No team has made as dramatic a rise up the under-25 rankings as the Cardinals in recent seasons. The team had already finished in the bottom five of the rankings in 2017 and 2018 when they traded away three draft picks to move up and subsequently select quarterback bust Josh Rosen. GM Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury deserve a ton of credit for understanding the concept of sunk costs and not letting a selection of a failed franchise quarterback set them back for multiple seasons. Instead, the Cardinals used the No. 1 pick that Rosen's poor play helped earn them on another franchise passer, Murray. His neutral rookie efficiency of a -3.1% DVOA and 55.7 QBR in 2019 puts him on a star trajectory, and his four remaining years of inexpensive team control put him on the short list of most valuable assets in football.

Veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins was too good of a trade value for the Cardinals pass up. But while he might slow down the development of the team's younger receivers, their talent remains a boon for the team. Christian Kirk has enjoyed the most success to date with more than 100 catches on near-neutral efficiency in his two seasons. But Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler offer major promise as well just a year removed from their second- and fourth-round draft selections and with standout Playmaker Scores that bode well for their potential to bounce back from disappointing rookie seasons.

The Cardinals make their ranking case with top-end talent rather than volume. They only had one draft pick in the first two rounds of 2020, but they made it count with the selection of hybrid linebacker Isaiah Simmons in the top 10. Simmons is an outlier athlete whose size, speed and athleticism should allow him to match up with players from multiple offensive positions. He and blue-chip safety Budda Baker -- who trails only Jamal Adams at the position with 42 defeats the past two seasons -- are the perfect foundation for a modern, position-less defense.

4. Buffalo Bills

2019 ranking: 6
Blue-chip players: Josh Allen, QB; Tremaine Edmunds, MLB; Ed Oliver, DT
Notable graduated players: Tre'Davious White, CB; Levi Wallace, CB

Bills GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott share division rival Bill Belichick's preference for stockpiling middle-tier veterans. And yet somehow, the Bills traded their first-round draft pick (and three total picks on net) for veteran receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason and still jumped two spots in the under-25 rankings.

That type of move can only happen when a team has unusual success with its smaller number of rookie additions, and the Bills nailed their four Day 1 and Day 2 draft selections from 2019. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is the clear blue-chip player of that bunch. His five sacks were twice as many as any other rookie defensive tackle. But right tackle Cody Ford, running back Devin Singletary, and tight end Dawson Knox all contributed in their rookie seasons as well. Singletary even finished top five among backs with 150 or more touches with a 23.3% broken tackle rate. He and bigger third-round rookie Zack Moss have a complementary skill set that should spur one of the league's best rushing attacks in 2020.

Of course, it's dual-threat quarterback Josh Allen who pushes the Bills' rushing offense from good to great. But he'll still have to progress as a passer to elevate the team into perennial playoff contention. His improvement from a -35.9% passing DVOA as a rookie to -11.8% as a sophomore is encouraging, but it leaves him behind the schedule that recent successful young quarterbacks have followed in their first two seasons.

If Allen can't make the leap, the Bills can still compete with an old-school, run-and-defense-oriented game plan. Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds already has 31 career starts and a Pro Bowl selection at an age of 22, when most prospects are just entering the league. Despite his youth, Edmunds finished top 10 among qualified linebackers in both coverage success rate and yards per pass allowed in his sophomore season. And Day 2 selections from 2018 and 2020, Harrison Phillips and A.J. Epenesa, provide some youth for a pass rush whose key contributors apart from Oliver are all north of 30.

5. San Francisco 49ers

2019 ranking: 19
Blue-chip players: Nick Bosa, DE; Fred Warner, LB; Deebo Samuel, WR
Notable graduated players: Mike McGlinchey, RT; Solomon Thomas, DT; D.J. Jones, DT; Ahkello Witherspoon, CB; Matt Breida, RB

The 49ers make the Cardinals look rich in draft capital. First-rounders Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk were the 49ers' only selections in the first four rounds of the 2020 draft. And yet, the team made the Super Bowl well ahead of schedule, seeing their defensive core of former first-rounders blossom while several key members were still shy of 25 years old.

The team's defense became the second-best in football and second-best against the pass thanks to consistent pressure from a front four that rarely had help from a blitzer -- their 78.6% rate of four pass-rushers was third-highest in football. Nick Bosa is a major part of that success and the team's defensive star. As a rookie in 2019, he finished third in football with 62 hurries. However, the team also saw pressure from its defensive tackles, which is why the explosive Kinlaw was a perfect team fit and a critical piece to replace the traded DeForest Buckner. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both young starters at linebacker. Warner has not received the same recognition as the Bills' Edmunds and Colts' Darius Leonard, but he is a member of their class of three-down superstar. His 67% coverage success rate in 2019 was better than those contemporaries and fourth-best among qualifiers at his position. Meanwhile, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley provided his own excellent 62% coverage success rate and allowed just 6.3 yards per pass as a part-time player in 2019. A promotion to starter in 2020 could eliminate the one hole the 49ers defense suffered last season.

By and large, the 49ers have an older offense, even if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have the number of career starts one would expect of a 28-year-old. Sixth-round left tackle Justin Skule helped enable Garoppolo's breakout season with a 3.3% blown block rate, much better than the team could have hoped for from their Day 3 rookie. At the skill positions, the 49ers thrive with speed and tackle-breaking that realize head coach Kyle Shanahan's desire for yards after the catch. Deebo Samuel finished third among heavily targeted wide receivers with 8.3 average yards after the catch in his rookie season. And with Samuel likely hurt to start this season, rookie Aiyuk and Jalen Hurd -- a former college running back -- can replace that production with their similar skill sets.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 ranking: 8
Blue-chip players: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS; Devin Bush, ILB; JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Notable graduated players: T.J. Watt, OLB; James Conner, RB; Mason Rudolph, QB; Artie Burns, CB

Lost in an anemic offense without normal quarterback starter Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers' defense matured into a top-three unit against both the run and the pass despite key members being under 25 and inexperienced. Star pass-rusher T.J. Watt missed the cutoff for these rankings, but 2019 first-rounder Devin Bush started 15 games as a rookie, called the defensive plays from his middle linebacker position, and justified his three-down role with a 60% coverage success rate. If he can make just modest improvements to his 18.3% broken tackle rate, he'll deserve Pro Bowl consideration.

With five interceptions and both an interception return and a fumble recovery return for a touchdown in 2019, in-season trade acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick was at the center of the Steelers' unsustainable turnover luck; they ended 19.0% of their opponents' drives with a turnover, 1.7% more frequently than even the Patriots in second place. Still, there's no doubt that Fitzpatrick is a blue-chip player and, at 23 years old and with three years left on his rookie contract, well worth the first-round pick the team traded for him. The Steelers' own 2018 first-round safety, Terrell Edmunds has been less productive in his two seasons. But he did offer impressive totals of 41 run stops and 15 run defeats to counterbalance an uninspiring 46% coverage success rate. With Fitzpatrick behind him, Edmunds should be able to play as a de facto linebacker with confidence.

After standout rookie and sophomore seasons, JuJu Smith-Schuster can have a pass for a down 2019 season with dreadful quarterback play. Incredibly, he's still just 23 years old. Meanwhile, even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers continued to develop a reputation as wide receiver university. James Washington authored an efficient sophomore season with an 11.2% DVOA despite seeing just 10 of his 25 deep targets be catchable. One would figure those deep passes should be his specialty given his speed; his 21.25 mph top speed was the fastest at the 2018 Senior Bowl. Diontae Johnson led the team with 92 targets and 59 receptions in his rookie season. And second-round rookie Chase Claypool has the size at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds and physicality to round out a receiving corps with the necessary attributes to target any kind of defensive weakness. They even added a speedy, receiving-capable fourth-round running back in Anthony McFarland to complement the still-young power back Benny Snell if often-injured veteran James Conner is unable to withstand his presumed three-down workload in 2020.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

2019 ranking: 17
Blue-chip players: Gardner Minshew II, QB; Jawaan Taylor, RT; Josh Allen, DE; DJ Chark, WR; CJ Henderson, CB

Notable graduated players: Jalen Ramsey, CB; Leonard Fournette, RB; Yannick Ngakoue, DE

Despite his sixth-round draft selection, Gardner Minshew finished second among the regular rookie quarterbacks with a -5.0% passing DVOA, just behind top overall pick and rookie of the year Kyler Murray (-3.1%) and comfortably ahead of Daniel Jones (-19.2%) and Dwayne Haskins (-42.0%). Even first-round quarterbacks provide their teams with incredible bargains on their rookie deals. If Minshew can build on his rookie season, then the Jaguars will have the rare luxury of cap flexibility to build a veteran team than can compete for the next three seasons no matter their other cost-controlled young talent.

That said, the Jaguars already have other young talent. On offense, Minshew found great chemistry with second-year, second-round receiver DJ Chark, who more than quintupled his rookie production with 73 catches and 1,008 yards in his sophomore season and was efficient overall (1.9% DVOA) and in the red zone (eight touchdowns on just 12 end zone targets). Second-round rookie Laviska Shenault has similar versatility -- he rotated through all three receiver positions at Colorado and even took 42 carries in three seasons there -- and can elevate the team's underrated core of skill talent to one of the best in football. And they'll have help from bookend tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor, who have impressed with 31 and 16 respective starts at just 24 and 22 years old even if their 4.1% and 3.0% blown block rates from 2019 leave room for improvement.

The Jaguars' defense fell from sixth in DVOA in 2018 to 29th in 2019 and sabotaged the efforts of an unexpectedly decent offense to make a playoff push in the AFC South. But despite their recent inefficiency and several trades over the past 12 months, the defense has even more young talent than the offense. Defensive end Josh Allen finished second among rookies to Nick Bosa with 29 hurries and first with 10.5 sacks and made the Pro Bowl. He'll have a new pass-rushing mate in second-round rookie K'Lavon Chaisson to replace the traded Calais Campbell. Top 10 pick CJ Henderson will have his own big shoes to fill as the effective replacement for former cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Henderson has the size and athleticism to do so, and he'll have help from Tre Herndon and fourth-round rookie Josiah Scott. Herndon might have a lesser pedigree than his 2020 rookie teammates, but he produced a solid 52% coverage success rate over 14 starts in his sophomore NFL season. Even accomplished run-stuffing safety Ronnie Harrison excelled in coverage in 2019 with a 63% coverage success rate. The team will have to hope that young secondary can make up for some of the coverage limitations their linebackers have shown in recent seasons.

8. Cleveland Browns

2019 ranking: 1
Blue-chip players: Myles Garrett, DE; Denzel Ward, CB; Nick Chubb, RB; Jedrick Wills, OT
Notable graduated players: Baker Mayfield, QB; Kareem Hunt, RB; Wyatt Teller, RG; Sione Takitaki, LB; Rashard Higgins, WR; Danny Vitale, FB

With an older sophomore quarterback who turned 25 in April, the Browns were poised to fall from their perch of the top spot in last year's under-25 rankings even if the team had matched their lofty expectations in 2019. They didn't do that, and so this year, they fell to eighth.

Even without Baker Mayfield, the Browns have enviable top-end talent. Defensive end Myles Garrett reached 20 hurries and 10 sacks for the second straight season even though his fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph earned him a suspension for the Browns' final six games. Cornerback Denzel Ward provided a top-10 63% coverage success rate after he returned from a hamstring injury that cost him most of October. And running back Nick Chubb broke 74 tackles, the second most in football. But that trio couldn't keep the Browns in the top five because of their proximity to expensive second contracts. Garrett already signed his this offseason. Ward and Chubb become unrestricted free agents in 2023 and 2022, respectively.

So far, the Browns have not replenished their young asset coffers, but several players offer that potential. 2019 second-rounder Greedy Williams had less success in dealing with his hamstring injury than his teammate Ward, but a poor 46% coverage success rate as a rookie hardly erases his potential. 2020 second-rounder Grant Delpit could round out a young and talented secondary as a Day 1 free safety starter. And with a 22.6% broken tackle rate as a rookie, linebacker Mack Wilson came close to veteran Joe Schobert (17.5%) and might provide a more seamless transition as the new 2020 starter than many would expect of a fifth-round sophomore. Meanwhile, the Browns had three draft picks in the value sweet-spot range between 88th and 115th overall in 2020. Linebacker Jacob Phillips looks like the only immediate starter of that group -- which also includes defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and tight end Harrison Bryant -- but all three could find significant roles within a year.

9. Houston Texans

2019 ranking: 4
Blue-chip players: Deshaun Watson, QB
Notable graduated players: Zach Cunningham, ILB; Eddie Vanderdoes, DT; Gareon Conley, CB; Vernon Hargreaves, CB

The Texans and the team that follows them would be much higher in these rankings if we still relied on our original methodology that graded on talent independent of contract situation. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has already checked every box needed to be a true franchise passer, setting a baseline of exceptional efficiency with a 9.5% DVOA and 63.8 QBR or better in all three of his professional seasons and authoring a comeback playoff win over the Bills after trailing by 16 points. There are few holes to poke in Watson's game, but his cap hits escalate to $4.4 million this year and $17.5 million next year, after which he will almost certainly command the second-highest contract in the sport. The Texans will happily pay him that money, but it will do the team no favors in the under-25 talent rankings.

Counterintuitively, Watson justifies the Texans' top-10 under-25 ranking by continuing their success while GM Bill O'Brien seems dedicated to trading away their other talent and draft capital. Trades left the Texans with just five total under-25 players and no first-round draft picks in the 2020 draft. Day 2 front-seven additions Ross Blacklock and Jonathan Greenard will hopefully boost a pass rush that slipped to a bottom-six 5.2% adjusted sack rate in 2019. But Max Scharping and Tytus Howard couldn't pull the team's pass protection out of its similar and consistent bottom-six adjusted sack ranking on offense despite decent 2.1% and 3.6% blown block rates over 14 and eight starts, respectively, in their rookie seasons. Watson had veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins as a safety blanket in his first three seasons when he finished in the top 10 in DVOA under pressure. It might be harder for him to thrive in that chaos in 2020 with a receiving corps full of field-stretching targets. Meanwhile, safety Justin Reid is the team's only other young asset with any real NFL success to date; he finished top 20 in 2019 among qualified safeties with a 58% coverage success rate.

With Watson set to turn 25 during the season and without a 2021 draft pick in the first two rounds, the Texans could be on the precipice of a major falloff in next year's rankings.

10. Kansas City Chiefs

2019 ranking: 3
Blue-chip players: Patrick Mahomes, QB
Notable graduated players: Martinas Rankin, LG; Kendall Fuller, CB; Darron Lee, LB; Demarcus Robinson, WR; Harrison Butker, K

A 10th-place ranking might be too low for even a one-man band of under-25 talent because that one man is 2018 regular-season and 2019 Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. On the field, Mahomes can play every instrument. He has finished in the top three in passing DVOA and QBR in his two seasons as a starter and in the top two in passing DYAR despite missing two games in 2019 with a knee injury. He overcame 24-point, 10-point, and 10-point deficits in his three playoff wins last season. His case as the best quarterback in football is unimpeachable, but his value relative to contract took a hit this offseason when he signed an extension with $141.5 million in guaranteed money. Suddenly, Mahomes' 2020 season is his last with a cap hit shy of $24.8 million. That might not drastically affect the Chiefs' overall competitiveness, but it does affect their standing in the under-25 rankings.

As makes sense for a team firmly in its Super Bowl window, the Chiefs fill the bulk of their starting lineup with veterans. Their two most promising young skill players, 2019 second-rounder Mecole Hardman and 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire, might not even start behind capable veterans like Sammy Watkins and Darrel Williams -- although the latter's chances improved when Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season. That said, there is little doubt that Hardman and Edwards-Helaire are perfect fits for Mahomes and this Chiefs team. Hardman ran a 4.33-second 40 time that nearly equaled the 4.29-second time of teammate and former track star Tyreek Hill. And Edwards-Helaire was the premiere receiving back in this year's draft class, catching 55 passes for 453 yards in his 2019 junior season at LSU.

Third-year cornerback Charvarius Ward is a definite 2020 starter and after a 2019 season with a 65% coverage success rate, he is the closest the Chiefs come to an under-25, blue-chip asset alongside Mahomes. Ward's second-half efficiency decline disqualified him for that distinction this year. Safety Juan Thornhill and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi will likely start, as well, and their respective 56% coverage success and 65% run stop rates from 2019 justify those roles. Beyond that threesome, the Chiefs are down to 2020 Day 2 and Day 3 draft selections in linebacker Willie Gay, tackle Lucas Niang, and safety L'Jarius Sneed when it comes to notable under-25 talent. In the short term, the Chiefs don't need more young talent. But after Mahomes' contract extension kicks in, the cost savings of starters on rookie contracts will become more and more important.

11. Washington

2019 ranking: 13
Blue-chip players: Chase Young, DE; Montez Sweat, DE; Daron Payne, DT; Dwayne Haskins, QB; Terry McLaurin, WR
Notable graduated players: Jonathan Allen, DT; Jimmy Moreland, CB; Ryan Anderson, OLB

It might not be prudent to plan around the Washington Football Team's playoff chances in 2020, but it's hard not to see their climb from 30th in the under-25 rankings in 2018 to 13th last year and now 11th this year and have hope for their eventual success. The team has been disciplined in its approach to accumulating young talent, forgoing the headline grab of skill players to select unsexy values such as defensive tackle Daron Payne and edge rusher Montez Sweat in the first round in recent seasons. With 43 run stops and 19 hurries, respectively, Payne and Sweat make decent cases for blue-chip status even if they fall short of stardom. This year's second overall pick Chase Young? He is a star -- SackSEER projects him to lead the class by more than seven sacks over the next five seasons -- and his addition to an already talented young pass rush should tip the scales of a pass defense whose bottom-10 efficiency from 2019 does not match their current talent. Meanwhile, linebacker Cole Holcomb's excellent 14.7% rookie broken tackle rate could foreshadow a lesser but still critical improvement to the team's similarly ranked run defense, especially with experienced defensive minds in Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio at the helm.

Defense likely won't be the team's problem in 2020. Football Outsiders projects the team to have a very poor offense this season, and second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins' dreadful rookie season is the major reason why. Haskins' minus-42.0% DVOA and 26.4 QBR were easily the worst among regular passers in 2019 and close to historical outliers among rookies who went on to have NFL success. That said, Haskins trended positively having his best two games with excellent 43.7% and 44.7% DVOA rates in his final two starts. It would not be unprecedented for Haskins to break out in his sophomore season, and if that happens, the team is loaded with young, offensive potential.

Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has moved beyond mere potential after a 919-yard, 18.9% DVOA rookie season. And while he might have already reached his ceiling as an older prospect set to turn 25 on September 15, the same cannot be said for undrafted receiver Steven Sims or often-injured third-year back Derrius Guice. Sims teased big-play ability with tremendous return efficiency as a rookie that has yet to manifest on offense with a very low to-date 4.6-yard average depth of target. Guice managed just five games in 2019 between knee injuries, but his 32.7% broken tackle rate would have led the positional qualifiers if he had the touch volume to qualify himself. And that says nothing of running back Bryce Love -- reportedly now healthy -- or 2020 draft picks Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden, all of whom could contribute in 2020.

12. Miami Dolphins

2019 ranking: 21
Blue-chip players: Tua Tagovailoa, QB

Notable graduated players: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS; Davon Godchaux, DT; Julien Davenport, LT; Taco Charlton, DE; Charles Harris, DE; Robert Nkemdiche, DT

Football Outsiders' QBASE projections prefer No. 1 pick Joe Burrow over the Dolphins' new franchise passer, Tua Tagovailoa. That said, Tagovailoa's 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt as a college sophomore are the third highest ever, and his 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt as a junior would have been the highest ever if his hip injury hadn't cost him his qualification. From the Dolphins' perspective, the important thing is that Tagovailoa is healthy and practicing now. And if he can realize his immense potential, then the Dolphins could vault to the top of these rankings in 2021 the way the Ravens and Cardinals did this season.

It's probably for the best that Dolphins fans have adopted the former 76ers' mantra "trust the process" because the team's smart-seeming trades adding Josh Rosen and sending Minkah Fitzpatrick away look a lot worse one year later. The former made little progress with a -63.0% DVOA and 18.4 QBR in his sophomore season and lost his starting job to journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the latter single-handedly tipped the scales of multiple Steelers wins with his five interceptions and two return touchdowns. Still, those and other rebuilding decisions from recent seasons have loaded the Dolphins with 11 draft picks from 2020 and nine more in 2021, an incredible nine of which are in the first two rounds. And all of that cost-controlled talent enabled a slew of veteran free-agent signings. That should help the team quickly become competitive even if it delays the impact of top prospects such as offensive linemen Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, and Solomon Kindley; front seven players Raekwon Davis, Jason Strowbridge, and Curtis Weaver; and defensive backs Noah Igbinoghene and Brandon Jones.

The Dolphins have a found a handful of young starters in recent seasons who should help the team immediately in 2020. Linebacker Jerome Baker had a strong 67% run stop rate and tremendous 10.0% broken tackle rate in his second season. With 20 hurries, first-round rookie Christian Wilkins was more disruptive than his meager total of two sacks would suggest. Guard Michael Deiter started 15 games and blew 3.9% of his blocks, palatable for a third-round rookie starter. Tight end Mike Gesicki was inefficient overall (-16.3% DVOA) but did emerge as a valuable red zone target (five touchdowns on 11 end zone targets). And undrafted rookies Nik Needham and Preston Williams outdid all of their drafted rookie teammates. Needham had a stellar 58% coverage success rate in 11 starts, and Williams put up 15.3% receiving DVOA in three starts between Fitzpatrick's promotion to starting quarterback in Week 7 and when he tore his ACL in Week 9.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

2019 ranking: 16
Blue-chip players: Joe Burrow, QB
Notable graduated players: Billy Price, LG; Tyler Boyd, WR; Andrew Billings, DT; Sam Hubbard, DE; Alex Redmond, RG; Jordan Evans, OLB; Darius Phillips, CB; Ryan Finley, QB

If you're curious what the under-25 ranking difference would be between a team whose lone young blue-chip player is an established franchise quarterback and one whose lone young blue-chip player is an unproven one, scroll up to read the Texans' and Chiefs' write-ups. That isn't to pour cold water on Bengals fans' excitement for their new rookie starter. Joe Burrow just authored the most successful season in college football history, leading the FBS with a 76.3% completion rate, 5,671 passing yards, and 60 passing touchdowns and leading his LSU Tigers to an undefeated season and national championship. Burrow naturally leads his class in Football Outsiders' QBASE projections as well, but he is not a historically great performer because he is a 23-year-old, two-year college starter whose college offense was loaded with NFL talent. It's fair to be excited, but Burrow is unlikely to turn the two-win Bengals into an 11-win playoff team in his rookie season the way Andrew Luck did with the Colts in 2012.

Part of Burrow's challenge will come from a roster bereft of other young blue-chip talent, even if they likely will have young contributors on both sides of the ball. Second-round rookie receiver Tee Higgins could become the former if he learns to beat NFL press coverage, but 2017 first-rounder John Ross seems unlikely to do so after his third straight injury-shortened season to start his career. Left guard Michael Jordan started nine games as a rookie, but his fourth-round draft pedigree and 3.5% blown block rate lessen his chances of long-term stardom. First-rounder tackle Jonah Williams would figure to have that upside, but he missed his entire rookie season with a torn labrum. The team could really use good seasons from both players to boost a bottom-third run-blocking line (3.90 adjusted line yards, 26th), although an in-season change from a zone-blocking to a pull-and-pin scheme helped running back Joe Mixon -- still just 24 entering his fourth NFL season -- rebound from a slow start to enjoy a 4.6 yards-per-carry and 11.2% DVOA second half. Free safety Jessie Bates also trended positively over the second half of the season, culminating in a solid 55% coverage success rate for the year and making him one of the few holdovers, young or old, in a secondary that the team mostly rebuilt in free agency.

14. New York Jets

2019 ranking: 7
Blue-chip players: Quinnen Williams, DT; Sam Darnold, QB; Mekhi Becton, LT
Notable graduated players: None

Like all of the teams that drafted a quarterback in the top 10 of the 2018 draft, the Jets had to have hoped their franchise passer -- Sam Darnold -- would have progressed more than he has in two seasons. Darnold's minus-20.4% DVOA and 43.6 QBR were third and seventh worst of the 34 quarterbacks who threw 200 or more passes last season. But Darnold also has the most reasonable excuses for his poor production. He missed a month at the start of the season with mononucleosis, and saw his replacement Luke Falk fare markedly worse on a team bereft of quality pass protection and skill position talent. At 23 years old, Darnold is two years younger than Baker Mayfield and one year younger than both Josh Allen and 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow. This might be a make-or-break season for Darnold, but he still demands the value credit this ranking is giving him.

No one will mistake the Jets' supporting cast for that of the Ravens or Cardinals, but the team has collected the best set of talent that Darnold has had around him in his three NFL seasons. Mekhi Becton might have been the third offensive tackle taken in the 2020 draft, but he is a legitimate top-10 talent the Jets landed at the 11th pick thanks to a deep class and teams in front of them that needed quarterbacks and cornerbacks. He and right tackle Chuma Edoga -- who started half of his rookie games in 2019 and encouragingly blew just 3.6% of his blocks -- could make over an offensive line that had the third-worst adjusted sack rate (9.2%) and second-worst adjusted line yards (3.80) last season. Additional time to throw and offensive balance would help Darnold more than upgrades to the skill positions, but the Jets made those as well, in particular in second-round receiver Denzel Mims whose exceptional 40-yard dash (4.38 seconds) and three-cone drill times (6.66 seconds) and vertical (38.5 inches) and broad jump distances (131 inches) had many analysts expecting a first-round selection.

Apart from Williams -- and after the team traded star 24-year-old safety Jamal Adams -- it's unclear how many young defenders will earn regular playing time on a strong, veteran defense. But the Jets do have a number of promising if not blue-chip young defenders. With his exceptional athleticism, third-round rookie Ashtyn Davis could replace Adams at safety in time. But as a scholarship track star at Cal, Davis is a latecomer to football who might graduate from these rankings before he becomes a full-time starter. Cornerback Blessuan Austin and linebacker Blake Cashman have better chances for short-term impacts. Austin proved he could be a permanent starter with his 54% coverage success rate and 6.7 allowed yards per attempt as a six-start fill-in in 2019, and Cashman allowed just a 14.3% broken tackle rate in one fewer start.

15. Tennessee Titans

2019 ranking: 29
Blue-chip players: A.J. Brown, WR
Notable graduated players: Jayon Brown, LB; Corey Davis, WR; Jonnu Smith, TE; Tajae Sharpe, WR

I struggled last year with the question of whether former top pick Corey Davis might be a blue-chip receiver whose excellence was hidden by Marcus Mariota's poor quarterback play. But now that A.J. Brown has shown what a real No. 1 receiver looks like in this offense, my consternation seems silly. Brown will regress from his league-leading and historically over-achieving 8.9 average yards after the catch, but he'll also see more than the 84 targets he accumulated in a rookie season in which he only started 11 of his 16 games.

The Titans have a lot of their eggs in the Brown basket this season with veterans Delanie Walker and Tajae Sharpe leaving in free agency and Davis landing on the preseason PUP list for undisclosed reasons in his own contract season. But the team did add some young skill talent in third-round running back Darrynton Evans. Evans was not asked to catch many passes at Appalachian State, but his quickness and kick-returning prowess suggest he could offer that complement to veteran power back Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, the team's run-focused offensive attack will likely benefit from two under-25 starters on the right side of the offensive line. Third-round guard Nate Davis already made 12 starts as a rookie in 2019. He struggled overall with 4.2% blown block rate, but his improvements in the second half of the season coincided with the Titans deep playoff run. 2020 first-round tackle Isaiah Wilson is massive at 6-foot-6 and 350 pounds, which might make him a curious fit for a zone-blocking rushing scheme but should help reduce Ryan Tannehill's untenable 9.8% sack rate.

The Titans might not have a blue-chip under-25 defender, but their defense is riddled with young starters and likely contributors. Adoree' Jackson improved his coverage success rate from 43% in 2018 to 51% in 2019. That still does not fully match his original promise as a first-round draft selection, but it makes him a capable starter in a secondary that likely drafted another future starter in second-rounder Kristian Fulton. Amani Hooker might be pressed for playing time behind those corners and veteran star free safety Kevin Byard, but he turned in a solid rookie season with a 55% coverage success rate and only really struggled to contain the uncontainable Tyreek Hill in the playoffs. Linebackers Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry are strong if not exceptional run and pass defenders, respectively. The former had a 72% run stop rate that was in the top 10 at the position, and the latter led the team with 38 hurries. And while 2019 first-rounder Jeffery Simmons didn't pile up statistics as a part-time starter in his rookie season, he flashed the potential to excel against both the run and the pass and could see improved play with more time lined up in the interior of the defensive line.

16. Las Vegas Raiders

2019 ranking: 14
Blue-chip players: Henry Ruggs III, WR; Josh Jacobs, RB
Notable graduated players: P.J. Hall, DT; Karl Joseph, SS; Daryl Worley, CB; Maurice Hurst, DT; Nicholas Morrow, OLB; Zay Jones, WR

The Raiders are the Giants Lite, with GM Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden making odd picks at the top of the past two drafts that so far haven't dramatically hurt their under-25 rankings because of their volume. Last year's top pick Clelin Ferrell had a modest rookie season with 17 hurries, 12 fewer than the next pass-rusher off the board and many analysts' preferred choice, Josh Allen. The team's second Round 1 pick Josh Jacobs was more successful. His 26.0% broken tackle rate was the second-highest of backs with 150 or more touches. It's just that even talented running backs might not warrant first-round draft picks. Their final 2019 first-round pick, safety Johnathan Abram, had worse luck. He tore his rotator cuff in the team's season opener and landed on injured reserve. Still, he's a likely 2020 starter. And the team's two 2020 first-round picks, wide receiver Henry Ruggs III and cornerback Damon Arnette, were reaches at their positions according to numerous scouts. Ruggs finished fourth and well behind presumed top two receiver prospects CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy in Playmaker Score, and Arnette's 4.56-second 40 time suggests he might struggle to hang with the game's best deep targets.

For all the negatives, Mayock and Gruden deserve credit for their talent evaluation in the later rounds. With 35 hurries and 10 sacks, fourth-round defensive end Maxx Crosby was way more productive in his rookie season than his first-round counterpart Ferrell. Hunter Renfrow and Foster Moreau were Day 3 selections who showed tremendous efficiencies of 7.9% and 29.6% DVOA on a limited number of targets as rookies. Their low 7.2-yard and 4.6-yard average depths of target suggest specialized roles even if the team eventually moves on from veteran checkdown artist Derek Carr, but that won't make them poor values for their draft capital. Adding those late-round gems to young, early-round talent that also includes left tackle Kolten Miller (3.0% blown block rate) and cornerback Trayvon Mullen (56% coverage success rate in 10 career starts), the Raiders might be a new franchise quarterback away from a top five under-25 ranking.

17. Indianapolis Colts

2019 ranking: 2
Blue-chip players: Quenton Nelson, LG
Notable graduated players: Darius Leonard, LB; Anthony Walker, LB; Kenny Moore, CB; Zach Pascal, WR

Last year's No. 2 team in the under-25 rankings suffered a worse fall than even the Browns, landing in the middle of the pack at No. 17 and without even 30-year-old Andrew Luck's retirement to blame. Well, that might not be completely true. Luck's absence might well have stunted the development of their young skill talent including Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Parris Campbell, although hamstring and hand injuries would presumably have derailed Campbell's rookie season in either case. It definitely affected the team's linemen. After incredible rookie seasons with just five and 12 blown blocks, Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith saw their totals balloon to 15 and 44 in their sophomore seasons, that second number being tied for the league high of all linemen. Some of their decline was likely regression, but I suspect more came as a result of the quarterback switch. One of Football Outsiders' core tenets is that quarterbacks have more control and linemen have less control over sacks than the conventional wisdom, and according to Next Gen Stats, Jacoby Brissett on average took 2.93 seconds to throw, second-highest in football and 0.30 seconds more than Luck took in 2018.

Nelson's 1.5% blown block rate does not rob him of his blue-chip status. It was still good enough to earn him his second All-Pro distinction in as many seasons. But where the Colts had four clear blue-chip players under 25 years old a year ago, Nelson is the only obvious choice in 2020. Smith suffered his precipitous fall. Darius Leonard graduated. And while safety Malik Hooker continued to draw respect from opposing quarterbacks, seeing just 17 passes thrown his way over 13 starts, he does not seem to have that same respect from his own team. The Colts declined his fifth-year option for 2021 and drafted his potential replacement in Julian Blackmon in the third round, perhaps motivated by Hooker's 29% coverage success rate on those limited targets.

That negativity explains the Colts' fall from the top 10, but it might also overstate the declined circumstances of a franchise that continues to effectively straddle the line of likely current and future competitiveness. Even though their trio of effective running backs remains shy of 25 years old, the Colts drafted Wisconsin back Jonathan Taylor, who has the highest BackCAST forecast in the history of the projections. He has yet to show the same receiving ability that his closest rushing comps Saquon Barkley and LaDainian Tomlinson did, but Taylor can propel an already diverse backfield into one of the best in football. With his 6-foot-4 and 223-pound size, rookie receiver Michael Pittman should complement a receiver group with the faster veteran T.Y. Hilton and quicker sophomore Campbell playing out of the slot. And on defense, the Colts retain multiple under-25 starters even with as many graduates. Linebacker Bobby Okereke showed promise in coverage in his rookie season and has a ceiling as a three-down starter next to Leonard. Strong safety Khari Willis had a productive rookie season as well despite dealing with the off-field stress of the premature birth of his twin sons. And slot corner Rock Ya-Sin allowed a miniscule 7.5% broken tackle rate to prop up a run defense that tended to struggle with the 19th-ranked efficiency against the run.

18. Carolina Panthers

2019 ranking: 12
Blue-chip players: D.J. Moore, WR; Christian McCaffrey, RB; Derrick Brown, DT; Brian Burns, OLB
Notable graduated players: Jermaine Carter, LB; Will Grier, QB

The Panthers fell six spots from 12th place in last year's under-25 rankings, a bad sign for a team that ranked 31st in DVOA for 2019 and that Football Outsiders projects for the fewest wins in 2020. Still, it's easy to understand the decision of GM Marty Hurney and new head coach Matt Rhule to skew older. The team's incumbent under-25 blue-chip players, Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, are already three and two years into their rookie deals, and McCaffrey has already been extended such that his cap hit balloons to $12.5 million in 2021. And with excellent 8.3 and 5.8 yards-after-the-catch averages from the past two seasons, they look like better fits for conservative veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater than whatever rookie they could have drafted with the seventh overall pick.

With fellow under-25 skill-position starters Curtis Samuel and Ian Thomas several years into their rookie contracts and yet to break out the way McCaffrey and Moore have, and offensive line options Greg Little and Dennis Daley disappointing with 6.1% and 4.6% blown block rates in their rookie seasons, the Panthers' road to a top-10 future ranking will run through this year's seventh overall pick -- defensive tackle Derrick Brown -- and the defensive makeover he is driving. The Panthers' run defense was historically poor (18.6% DVOA) in 2019, and the team will turn over more than half of its defensive starters this season, half of which again to inexperienced players. That doesn't necessarily mean the Panthers' likely young starters will be good, but the team increased its odds of success by being the first ever to spend all seven of its draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. Brown, second-round defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos and safety Jeremy Chinn do at least look the part of immediate impact players, the former directly addressing the unit's primary weakness in run defense and the latter two with the size and skills to make explosive plays. And second-year pass-rusher Brian Burns is a surer thing, following up his class-leading SackSEER rating with 19 hurries and 7.5 sacks as a part-time player as a rookie. Gross-Matos and Burns will have to excel to cover a coverage team now headlined by third-year corner Donte Jackson, whose 10.5 yards allowed per target suggests he might be underqualified to be the team's top option.

19. Denver Broncos

2019 ranking: 23
Blue-chip players: Bradley Chubb, OLB; Courtland Sutton, WR; Drew Lock, QB; Jerry Jeudy, WR
Notable graduated players: Dalton Risner, LG; Elijah Wilkinson, RT; Josey Jewell, LB; Troy Fumagalli, TE; Davontae Harris, CB; DaeSean Hamilton, WR; Su'a Cravens, SS

After attempting to walk the balance beam between competing with their former Super Bowl core and fully rebuilding, the Broncos embraced the second path over the past 12 months, and they have already jumped four spots in these rankings because of it. After spending first- and second-round picks on Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and now Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the past three seasons, the Broncos have assembled some of the best young skill talent in football. Sutton already broke out with 1,112 yards and a 5.7% DVOA in his sophomore season, and Jeudy seems a lock to follow suit with the second-highest Playmaker Score in this year's class. But whether that talent translates into offensive efficiency will likely rest on the shoulders of quarterback Drew Lock. His second-round status would seem to make him a longer shot to become a franchise passer. But he did produce a 2.2% DVOA and 48.2 QBR in his rookie season, comparable to No. 1 pick and rookie of the year Kyler Murray (-3.1%, 55.7), albeit over a quarter of as many attempts since Lock started the season on injured reserve with a thumb injury.

Defensively, the Broncos remain older with one young star in pass-rusher Bradley Chubb as well as a handful of interesting prospects sprinkled in. Chubb missed most of 2019 with an ACL tear, but his 34.5 hurries and 12 sacks as a rookie put him on a similar career trajectory as three-time All-Pro teammate Von Miller. And third-round sophomore Dre'Mont Jones could add a third member to their fearsome pass rush after he burst onto the scene with a Week 16 dismantling of the Lions with 2.5 sacks and two tackles for losses. It might be difficult for Jones, 2018 third-round cornerback Isaac Yiadom and 2020 third-round cornerback Michael Ojemudia and defensive tackle McTelvin Agim to find extensive playing time in a loaded, veteran defense, but they provide the team with enviable depth in the short term and multiple succession plans in the long term. And third-round rookie center Lloyd Cushenberry could start immediately on offense, replacing departed free-agent veteran Connor McGovern (the Jets version).

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2019 ranking: 20
Blue-chip players: Devin White, ILB; Chris Godwin, WR; Tristan Wirfs, OT
Notable graduated players: Vita Vea, DT; Alex Cappa, RG; O.J. Howard, TE; Justin Evans, SS

Ironically, Tom Brady's free-agent move to Tampa Bay mirrors LeBron James' departure from Florida and return home to Cleveland in 2014. The narratives were totally different, but both decisions made sports sense thanks to their new teams' young, blue-chip players -- something Brady was missing on his the Patriots (ranked 31st in under-25 talent) as much because of bad drafting and forfeited picks in recent seasons as Bill Belichick's preference for veteran players.

The direct, obvious draws are wide receiver Chris Godwin and offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, the 12th overall pick this season. Godwin led his veteran teammate Mike Evans (18.0%) and every other heavily targeted receiver in the NFL with a 32.8% DVOA in 2019. And Wirfs should fill the only obvious hole on a Buccaneers' offensive line whose 22nd-ranked adjusted sack rate (7.6%) likely suffered from former quarterback Jameis Winston's poor decision-making. Their 29.0% allowed pressure rate was 13th best and should improve with Wirfs starting and with Brady's tremendous pocket presence.

Beyond the obvious skill talent, the Bucs have potential plus contributors in running backs Ronald Jones and Ke'Shawn Vaughn and slot receiver Tyler Johnson. Jones bounced back from a disastrous rookie season with near-neutral rushing (-2.3%) and above-average receiving DVOA rates (9.2%). Vaughn and Johnson are favorite sleepers of Football Outsiders' BackCAST and Playmaker Score projections. But it's on defense where the team's under-25 talent truly shines. Defensive tackle Vita Vea broke out a year too late for this consideration, but linebacker Devin White was an immediate-impact player as a rookie, compiling a top-20 57% coverage success rate that justifies his three-down role. And second-round free safety steal Antoine Winfield should round out a secondary full of excellent young talent, including their three starting cornerbacks, 2019 second-rounder Sean Murphy-Bunting as well as Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who put up stellar 63% and 57% coverage success rates in 2019.

21. New Orleans Saints

2019 ranking: 22
Blue-chip players: Erik McCoy, C; Marshon Lattimore, CB; Deonte Harris, WR
Notable graduated players: Alvin Kamara, RB; Vonn Bell, SS; Eli Apple, CB; Alex Anzalone, LB; Trey Hendrickson, DE

With Ryan Ramczyk graduating last year and Alvin Kamara graduating this year from the team's historically great 2017 draft class, the Saints are poised to find themselves in the bottom third of the under-25 rankings for the next several years and maybe longer. Built to win now around a 41-year-old quarterback in Drew Brees, the team would likely need another unusually successful draft to make any headway. And that is unlikely to come from a 2020 class with just four selections, only one of whom -- Cesar Ruiz -- came in the first two rounds. Ruiz should be an excellent fit and an immediate starter at right guard, replacing departed free agent Larry Warford. But Ruiz and center Erik McCoy -- an immediate star with a 1.7% blown block rate over 16 rookie starts but the Saints' only draft selection in the first three rounds last year -- are the team's only young offensive players likely to make a major impact this season, unless All-Pro punt returner Deonte Harris sees a significant bump from the six targets he saw last year or third-rounder Adam Trautman adjusts more quickly to his NFL responsibilities than most rookie tight ends do.

The Saints do have a handful of quality, young defensive players. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is the lone blue-chipper, and even his pair of Pro Bowl berths overstates his career effectiveness. He has never finished in the top 30 in coverage success rate or top 40 of yards allowed per target among positional qualifiers, peaking in 2019 with good-but-not-great 55% and 7.4 rates, respectively. Free safety Marcus Williams rebounded with a 55% coverage success rate in 2019. Day 3 sophomore Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is more of a run defender, second among qualified safeties with a 68% run stop rate and first with 2.7 allowed yards per run tackle, although his just seven starts in the second half of his rookie season open him up to greater potential regression. Fortunately for the team, defensive end Marcus Davenport enjoyed an overdue breakout, excelling both against the run (81% stop rate) and the pass (32 hurries). Meanwhile, rookie outside linebacker Zack Baun has the skills to rush the passer and stay with running backs and tight ends in coverage. He was a surprising get for the team in the third round of the draft.

22. Green Bay Packers

2019 ranking: 15
Blue-chip players: Jaire Alexander, CB; Kenny Clark, DT; Elgton Jenkins, G; Jordan Love, QB
Notable graduated players: Aaron Jones, RB; Antonio Morrison, LB; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR; Kevin King, CB; Tyler Lancaster, DT; Jamaal Williams, RB

The Packers had a perfect rebuilding draft for 1990. The only problem is that it's 2020, and the team has a competitive roster with a handful of holes that their selections wholeheartedly ignored. There are few assets more valuable than a starting quarterback on a rookie contract, but the Packers seem destined to squander Jordan Love's potential value by presumably sitting him for at least the next two seasons, after which Aaron Rodgers would become a palatable release candidate with $17.2 million in dead cap if, you know, he weren't Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Second-round running back AJ Dillon is not as blocked as he seems with both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams a year away from free agency. But Dillon had the worst BackCAST receiving index in this year's class. He is an old-school, one-dimensional rusher -- basically the opposite of Jones, who became a fifth-round heist primarily because his receiving prowess (+0.34 receiving index) made him such a great fit for Rodgers. And third-round tight end Josiah Deguara is more of an H-back -- well-equipped to serve as lead blocker for his rookie teammate Dillon but lacking the speed and after-the-catch ability to excel as a receiver.

Fortunately for the team and Rodgers' sanity, the Packers retain some under-25 talent from previous seasons. Blue-chip cornerback Jaire Alexander fulfilled his potential with a 61% coverage success rate on a healthy 97 targets as a sophomore. Chandon Sullivan was even better (76%) in his specialized role covering slot receivers, running backs and tight ends. Even safety Darnell Savage thrived in coverage (62%). They are so loaded with young depth in the secondary that 2018 second-rounder Josh Jackson might not even have a job when he returns from his foot injury in 2020. And defensive tackle Kenny Clark finally earned the Pro Bowl distinction he has long deserved. He produced as both a run-stuffer (81% run stop rate) and pass-rusher (32 hurries) in his fourth season, and he is still 24 years old.

Offensively, the Packers have a budding young star in left guard Elgton Jenkins, who offset his position-leading 10 penalties with a miniscule 1.7% blown block rate as a rookie. He blew just three blocks on 327 run-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, wide receiver Allen Lazard and tight end Jace Sternberger give Rodgers internal candidates to emerge as a No. 2 receiver opposite Davante Adams. Lazard was efficient with a 14.6% DVOA on a small sample of 52 targets, and Sternberger should have his chance to produce as a sophomore next to blocking-specialist Deguara and with Jimmy Graham now on the Bears.

23. Los Angeles Chargers

2019 ranking: 9
Blue-chip players: Derwin James, FS; Justin Herbert, QB
Notable graduated players: Joey Bosa, DE; Mike Williams, WR; Hunter Henry, TE; Sam Tevi, RT; Austin Ekeler, RB; Justin Jackson, RB; Michael Davis, CB; Desmond King, CB; Scott Quessenberry, C; Drue Tranquill, ILB; Michael Badgley, K

The Chargers have not enjoyed the same alignment between quarterback and roster as the team two spots above them in these rankings, the Saints, in recent seasons. Philip Rivers couldn't pull a team full of younger stars-in-the-making including Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Joey Bosa over the hump the past few seasons. And now that those players have graduated into veteran status, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert might not be ready to take full advantage.

That said, QBASE prefers Herbert to the more heralded prospect who went just before him, Tua Tagovailoa. It helps to not have the same injury concerns. Meanwhile, the veteran skill talent around Herbert -- including 25-year-old running backs Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, who never saw the workloads to showcase their immense potential when they were young enough to boost the team's under-25 ranking -- should help Herbert's transition to the NFL, even if a typically porous offensive line (29.2% allowed pressure rate or worse the past three seasons) could have him running. Third-round sophomore tackle Trey Pipkins could help in that respect, but his 4.7% blown block rate over a small sample of snaps in his rookie season make him more of a long-term prospect. Veteran free-agent addition Bryan Bulaga will undoubtedly be the left tackle starter this season.

While the Chargers have used money and trades to try to boost their pass protection, they've added some potential impact young defensive talent in the draft in recent seasons. Derwin James is the best of that bunch. A stress fracture in his foot limited him to five games in his sophomore season, but when he returned from injured reserve, James picked up where he left off in his rookie season with an 80% coverage success rate and 62% run stop rate. He is a linebacker as much as he is a free safety. And in 2020, he'll have help from rangy first-round rookie linebacker Kenneth Murray -- a likely Day 1 starter at middle linebacker -- and former second-rounder Uchenna Nwosu, poised to start after two years of situational play and famous for his strip of Lamar Jackson in the Chargers' 2018 playoff win over the Ravens. 2019 first-rounder Jerry Tillery barely found the field in a disappointing rookie season; but incumbent young defensive tackle Justin Jones enjoyed a breakout sophomore season with a 77% run stop rate, and he offers a safeguard if Tillery fails to live up to his potential.

24. Dallas Cowboys

2019 ranking: 11
Blue-chip players: Leighton Vander Esch, OLB; Connor Williams, LG; Michael Gallup, WR; CeeDee Lamb, WR
Notable graduated players: Maliek Collins, DT; Jaylon Smith, ILB; Ezekiel Elliott, RB; Chidobe Awuzie, CB; Xavier Woods, FS

If you've followed the drama of the Cowboys' attempts to balance the contract demands of free agents Amari Cooper and Byron Jones and impending free agents Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott over the past 12 months, then you probably realize the team is no longer flush with young assets on inexpensive rookie contracts. That fact is also evident in the team's precipitous fall from ninth in the under-25 rankings two years ago to 11th last year and now 24th this year.

Still, the Cowboys deserve credit for continuing to nail a good number of their draft picks. In 2018, those successes included all three of their Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks, Leighton Vander Esch, Connor Williams and Michael Gallup. A disk issue in his neck limited Vander Esch to nine games in his sophomore season and likely compromised him when he did play -- as his 26.8% allowed broken tackle rate was much worse than his rookie rate of 6.6%, second best at the position. He deserves the benefit of the doubt. Williams duplicated his impressive rookie 1.4% blown block rate in his sophomore season. And Gallup had a 13.5% receiving DVOA that would make him a No. 1 receiver on most teams, just not his because of the veteran Cooper (22.3%). One could argue the Cowboys now have three No. 1 caliber receivers since their first selection in the 2020 draft, CeeDee Lamb, led his class in Playmaker Score and was an incredible value at 17th overall.

The team's 2019 draft class has not made the same immediate impact, but things could change for those players in 2020. Connor McGovern will return from a pectoral injury that cost him his rookie season, and he has the versatility to play either guard or center if any veteran Cowboys suffer injuries and if fourth-round rookie Tyler Biadasz needs time to develop. And running back Tony Pollard produced a starting-caliber 11.6% rushing DVOA in his rookie season and would allow the team to continue its typical rushing success if Elliott misses time. Day 2 selections from the past two seasons, Trysten Hill and Neville Gallimore, offer defensive tackle depth behind the aging Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe. And second- and fourth-round rookies Trevon Diggs and Reggie Robinson give the Cowboys a pair of bigger cornerback prospects to try to replace the departed free agent Jones.

25. Seattle Seahawks

2019 ranking: 30
Blue-chip players: Jamal Adams, SS; DK Metcalf, WR
Notable graduated players: Chris Carson, RB; Shaquill Griffin, CB; Tre Flowers, CB, Tedric Thompson, FS

As I started writing this article, the Seahawks were poised to finish in the bottom five in the under-25 rankings for the third straight season. The team's top picks from the past few seasons -- Rashaad Penny and L.J. Collier -- have yet to develop into impact NFL players, in large part thanks to the knee and ankle injuries they suffered in 2019, respectively. The team's top pick from this season -- Jordyn Brooks -- was a perceived first-round reach given his lack of coverage ability at linebacker.

But then in late July, the Seahawks traded two future first-rounders for All-Pro safety Jamal Adams. With an October birthday, Adams barely makes the cut for under-25 consideration. But as a first-round draft pick, he still has two years left on his rookie contract. That offers the Seahawks plenty of time to extract a value from likely the best run-stopping (24 defeats, 2nd) and pass-rushing (16 hurries and 6.5 sacks, 1st) safety in football.

Adams adds a second young blue-chip prospect to a team that before had DK Metcalf and mostly unproven potential otherwise. Metcalf himself might have fallen into the "more potential than production" camp after a regular season with a neutral 0.6% receiving DVOA. But then he blossomed into a star at the best possible time, catching seven passes for 160 yards and a touchdown to lead a road playoff win against an Eagles team whose stellar run defense (-18.5% DVOA, 4th) required the Seahawks to rely more heavily on the pass than they prefer. Metcalf and tight end Will Dissly, who missed most of his first two seasons with patellar tendon and Achilles tendon tears but has excelled when he has played, could quickly become the focal points of Russell Wilson's passing efforts.

Adams and Metcalf are critical additions for the Seahawks since their other young talent is concentrated on the offensive and defensive lines. Collier, Poona Ford and second-round rookie Darrell Taylor should all play big roles in a defensive line rotation that, without Jadeveon Clowney, lacks a star veteran. Ford, at least, is a proven talent. He finished top 10 among defensive tackles with an 89% run stop rate and 1.4 allowed yards per carry. On the offensive line, fifth-round sophomore tackle Jamarco Jones and third-round rookie guard Damien Lewis might not start in 2020, but they have starter talent. Jones showed that with a decent 3.0% blown block rate in his rookie season, and Lewis showed that with tremendous run blocking at LSU, even if his lack of quickness could challenge him on pull blocks at the next level. Beyond those players, punter Michael Dickson is probably the team's most exciting young asset. And even his sophomore decline to 25th in gross punt value dims the star of the top-five rookie season that earned him an All-Pro distinction.

26. Detroit Lions

2019 ranking: 18
Blue-chip players: Frank Ragnow, C; Jeff Okudah, CB
Notable graduated players: A'Shawn Robinson, DT; Tracy Walker, FS; Jarrad Davis, LB; David Blough, QB

The Lions featured a much weaker pass defense (26.1% DVOA, 29th) than their run defense in 2019 (-9.3%, 17th), which is not the formula for success in the modern NFL. Fortunately, GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia seemed to recognize that problem and addressed it on Day 1 and 2 of the draft by selecting cornerback Jeff Okudah and edge defender Julian Okwara. Okudah has the ideal physical traits to become a shutdown corner, and if his brother and Lions teammate Romeo is any indication, Okwara could quickly add the size and strength to become a prototypical NFL pass-rusher. Middle linebacker Jahlani Tavai and strong safety Will Harris have already demonstrated their three-down abilities with strong 59% and 53% respective coverage success rates as part-time players in their rookie seasons. Add to them a healthy pass-rusher in Da'Shawn Hand, who missed the majority of 2019 with various elbow and ankle injuries, and the Lions are poised for rapid defensive improvements.

Offensively, the Lions didn't need the same amount of help, but they have similarly promising young starters in sophomore tight end T.J. Hockenson and rookie running back D'Andre Swift. An ankle injury cut Hockenson's rookie season short, but his pre-draft promise offers hope that he can become a plus contributor as both a receiver and a blocker. Ironically, Swift does not possess the top-end speed to score from anywhere on the field, but he is quick and decisive and provides a three-down ability that the Lions have lacked despite recent draft investments in backs including Kerryon Johnson and Ty Johnson. Meanwhile, the team will likely provide bigger holes for Swift than his predecessors thanks to recent top draft investments in center Frank Ragnow, guards Jonah Jackson and Logan Stenberg, and tackle Tyrell Crosby. Ragnow is the blue-chip player of that quartet. He blew just 2.0% of his blocks and allowed just one sack in 2019.

27. Chicago Bears

2019 ranking: 27
Blue-chip players: Roquan Smith, ILB; James Daniels, C
Notable graduated players: Tarik Cohen, RB; Anthony Miller, WR; Rashaad Coward, RG; Adam Shaheen, TE

Misreading of the market aside, the Bears' decision to trade for veteran quarterback Nick Foles this offseason makes sense for a team that already pushed all-in for short-term competitiveness with the Khalil Mack trade in 2018. After losing their 2019 first-round pick and 2020 first- and third-round picks, the Bears fell to 27th in the under-25 rankings the past two years and added just tight end Cole Kmet and cornerback Jaylon Johnson prior to the fifth round of this year's draft. Kmet, at least, was the class's consensus top tight end, and he could add a badly needed receiving option for whichever of Foles or Mitchell Trubisky ends up starting. Graduated wide receiver Anthony Miller hasn't provided as much value as expected, catching just 85 passes with below-average offensive efficiency (-3.1% DVOA). And 2019 fourth-rounder Riley Ridley was a nonfactor in his rookie season with just seven targets in five active games.

Nevertheless, the Bears aren't completely bereft of young talent. Center James Daniels solidified his blue-chip status with a second straight season with a blown block rate below 3.0%. With a solid 19.9% broken tackle rate, running back David Montgomery teased potential that his poor -13.0% rushing and -5.5% receiving DVOA rates mostly obscured. I think it's fair to primarily blame the Bears' bottom-four run-blocking offensive line (3.86 adjusted line yards) for his inefficiency. Linebacker Roquan Smith continued to show tremendous versatility with a 64% run stop rate and a 54% coverage success rate, both in the top 30 at his position. And Bilal Nichols has 18 career starts with modest production that could prove critical with defensive tackle Eddie Goldman opting out of the 2020 season.

28. Los Angeles Rams

2019 ranking: 24
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Jared Goff, QB; Jalen Ramsey, CB; Samson Ebukam, OLB; Joseph Noteboom, LG; Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT; Josh Reynolds, WR; Troy Reeder, ILB

The Rams walked into their two-year decline from first to 28th in the under-25 rankings with their eyes open. Aligned with Jared Goff's rookie contract, the team traded a first-round pick in 2018 for Brandin Cooks and first-round picks in 2020 and 2021 for Jalen Ramsey. And now that Goff and Ramsey have graduated, the Rams no longer have a blue-chip young asset when they could really use one to counterbalance the suddenly expensive salaries of their remaining core players.

The closest the Rams come to a premium young asset is in the secondary. Taylor Rapp was a tremendous run-stopping safety in his first year as a starter in 2019, finishing top five at the position with 52 stops and 23 defeats. Opposing quarterbacks picked on Rapp with a 14.7% target rate -- also top five among safeties -- but he should receive some help in 2020 with the healthy return of John Johnson. A shoulder injury limited Johnson to six games last season, but he bested Rapp's 47% coverage success rate in each of his past three seasons, and he should start his fourth professional season with a move to free safety. And while cornerback David Long barely played in his rookie season, his 6.45-second 3-cone drill time suggests that his coverage success at Michigan will translate with expanded professional playing time in 2020.

The Rams have several young starters on their offensive line, but they couldn't pull the team out of the bottom half of teams in pass protection (31.3% pressure rate, 23rd) or run blocking (4.27 adjusted line yards, 19th) in 2019. Bobby Evans and David Edwards were third- and fifth-round rookies last season, so their poor 5.2% and 3.5% blown block rates are forgivable. That said, the Rams are poised to replace Evans in 2020 with a healthy returning veteran Rob Havenstein at right tackle. Center Brian Allen was better with his 2.9% blown block rate, but he could lose his starting job to Austin Blythe. Weirdly, 2019 in-season acquisition Austin Corbett was the team's best young blocker last season (2.4% blown block rate). Although Corbett was the 33rd overall draft selection by Cleveland in 2018, the Browns played him just 12 snaps that season and were happy to trade him to the Rams in October for a fifth-round pick.

With Cooks and Todd Gurley II departing this offseason, the Rams will need some of their young skill talent to fill the void. Wide receiver Van Jefferson does not overwhelm with physical tools, but he is pro-ready and versatile. And rookie and sophomore running backs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are capable pass-catchers, as well. With their abilities to move and find mismatches, all three players should fit well in Sean McVay's offense.

29. Philadelphia Eagles

2019 ranking: 32
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Dallas Goedert, TE; Nathan Gerry, OLB; Jordan Howard, RB; Hassan Ridgeway, DT; Rasul Douglas, CB; Greg Ward, WR; Boston Scott, RB

The Eagles' second-round draft selection of quarterback Jalen Hurts epitomizes their commitment to depth over star power, but their recent inability to draft a blue-chip player will catch up with them if they cannot turn that trend around. Their lone first-round pick from 2017 and 2018, Derek Barnett, has peaked with just 26 hurries and 6.5 sacks in his best of three career seasons. And after one year, the team's 2019 draft looks particularly poor. First-rounder Andre Dillard blew 7.8% of his rookie blocks, the highest rate among left tackles with 300 or more snaps played. His need to further develop might have prompted the team to re-sign 38-year-old Jason Peters if they hadn't already done so to replace injured veteran Brandon Brooks at right guard. Second-round wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside found the field for just 486 offensive snaps in a healthy season and was inefficient with a -12.3% DVOA when he was targeted. Fourth-round defensive end Shareef Miller did not play a single defensive snap. And fifth-round quarterback Clayton Thorson is no longer with the team. Among their five picks, only running back Miles Sanders showcased his potential, and his workhorse consideration for 2020 relies more heavily on his excellent receiving (20.0% DVOA) than his demonstrated rushing efficiency (-6.6% DVOA).

The Eagles would likely have repeated as the last-place team in the under-25 rankings if not for their success in the later rounds. Cornerbacks Avonte Maddox and Sidney Jones excelled in relief of presumed starters Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills, posting impressive 56% and 67% respective coverage success rates. One of them is likely to start across from newly acquired veteran All-Pro Darius Slay. With 16 hurries and four sacks, defensive end Josh Sweat outpaced the more heralded Barnett in half as many snaps. And the team must like either unproven sophomore linebacker T.J. Edwards or rookies Davion Taylor and Shaun Bradley, because one of them almost certainly will start with just Duke Riley and Jatavis Brown as veteran options at off-ball linebacker.

Even with those deeper finds, the Eagles have a lot riding on the success of their 2020 draft. Fortunately for the team, it might succeed on volume having made 10 selections, five of which came in the first four rounds. Apart from the aforementioned linebackers, first-round wideout Jalen Reagor is the most important for the team's 2020 prospects, but the immediate need might not mesh with his combination of tremendous skills and lack of polish. Perhaps he can make an immediate impact with mostly shallow and deep routes in his rookie season while he develops other facets of his route running.

30. Minnesota Vikings

2019 ranking: 28
Blue-chip players: Brian O'Neill, RT
Notable graduated players: Danielle Hunter, DE; Garrett Bradbury, C; Dalvin Cook, RB; Ben Gedeon, OLB; Laquon Treadwell, WR; Eric Wilson, OLB

They might have advertised it as a culture move, but the Vikings' decision to trade veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs was a cap-related move. With that and a first-round trade-down move with the 49ers, the Vikings did a wonderful job replenishing their draft capital -- they had an incredible 15 draft picks in 2020 and have 13 more in 2021 -- which will in turn ease the salary burden of their many veteran contracts. That said, until some of those late and future draft picks become on-field contributors, this team in transition lands near the bottom of the under-25 rankings.

The Vikings do have a young, blue-chip right tackle in Brian O'Neill. His 1.7% blown block rate in 2019 improved on an already excellent 2.5% rookie rate and helped pull a perennially terrible Vikings pass-blocking line to the middle of the pack (29.3% blown block rate, 16th). Second-round rookie tackle Ezra Cleveland will aim to get them into the top 10. But the team loses under-25 credit for their best offensive lineman, Garrett Bradbury, and best defensive lineman, Danielle Hunter. Without them, the team has few young players with any starting experience.

The team's fourth corner to start 2019, Mike Hughes was pressed into a handful of starts and 505 defensive snaps because of a Mackensie Alexander injury and a pair of Holton Hill suspensions. Opposing quarterbacks picked on the inexperienced Hughes with a position-leading 30.0% estimated target rate, but he'll have a chance to establish himself as a starting-caliber player in 2020 coming off a healthy offseason; he sat out last offseason because of a torn ACL. Meanwhile, the team won't need either Hughes or Hill to shadow their opponents' top receivers. First-round draft pick Jeff Gladney will likely earn that assignment, and his aggressive press coverage, tackling and blitzing suggest the confidence to success as a Day 1 NFL starter.

As for their own receivers, the Vikings have a lot of potential even without Diggs in the form of first-round rookie Justin Jefferson and sophomore tight end Irv Smith. Jefferson thrived at LSU in 2019 from the slot, and that makes him an odd fit next to the starter the team kept, veteran Adam Thielen. But Jefferson is one of the rookie receivers most ready to make an immediate impact, which should serve this Vikings team well. Smith had the inefficient (-18.5% DVOA) rookie season most rookie tight ends do, but his very shallow 5.9-yard average depth of throw did not match his skill set as a rare field-stretcher at the position. Alongside effective slot receivers in Thielen and Jefferson and next to a more traditional tight end in Kyle Rudolph, Smith could see both his role and his types of targets expand greatly in 2020. Meanwhile, second-year running back Alexander Mattison has the three-down versatility to make him a potential workhorse back should something happen to incumbent veteran Dalvin Cook.

31. New England Patriots

2019 ranking: 31
Blue-chip players: J.C. Jackson, CB
Notable graduated players: Sony Michel, RB; Chase Winovich, DE

The Patriots are in a familiar place of having the second-fewest impact under-25 assets in football, but their run of veteran opt-outs this offseason lands them in unfamiliar territory of having to rely on the youngsters they do have to be successful this year.

Linebackers Ja'Whaun Bentley and second-round rookie Josh Uche might be the most important, with veteran Dont'a Hightower opting out and Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Elandon Roberts all departing in free agency. Bentley is barely a veteran after playing just 413 defensive snaps in his first two seasons, but he has at least flashed the coverage ability to make him a three-down option for the team. Third-round edge defender Anfernee Jennings is experienced by the team's new standards, having spent five years chasing quarterbacks for Alabama. Second-round safety Kyle Dugger is an explosive player but faces a major talent adjustment coming from non-FBS Lenoir-Rhyne University. But if he ends up a first-year defensive starter, he'll at least have help from a talented defensive secondary that, in addition to veterans Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Jones and Devin and Jason McCourty, has talented young cornerbacks in J.C. Jackson and Joejuan Williams, the former of whom finished second at the position with a 72% coverage success rate and is the team's only young blue-chip player.

It's no surprise that the team lacks another young blue-chipper after the first rounds they've had in recent drafts. The Patriots forfeited that pick in 2016 because of Deflategate. They traded that pick in 2017 for Brandin Cooks. They drafted Isaiah Wynn in 2018, who subsequently landed on injured reserve in each of his first two seasons, first for an Achilles tendon tear, then for a toe injury. They drafted N'Keal Harry in 2019, who landed on injured reserve, as well. Frankly, it's no wonder the team opted to trade back in 2020. The more draft picks you make, the better your chances to end up with at least one healthy player on your roster.

Wynn and Harry are still young and appear healthy entering 2020, so perhaps they can finally fulfill their NFL potential. On offense, running back Damien Harris could see a major uptick in work given graduated veteran Sony Michel's inefficiency (-6.4% rushing DVOA) and Brandon Bolden's opt-out decision. The same could be true for rookie tight end and perhaps de facto lead blocker Dalton Keene with fullback Danny Vitale skipping 2020. And both wideout Jakobi Meyers and rookie tight end Devin Asiasi have little between them and starting roles on a thin depth chart of pass-catchers. Second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham might even end up throwing them some passes given late-addition Cam Newton's recent injury track record, although the team's slow playing of the market is hardly a guarantee that the unheralded fourth-rounder is a capable NFL passer.

32. Atlanta Falcons

2019 ranking: 26
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Calvin Ridley, WR; Deion Jones, LB; Keanu Neal, FS; Austin Hooper, TE; Kaleb McGary, RT

The Falcons had just two picks on Days 1 and 2 of the 2019 draft, so they had to make first-rounders Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary count. Unfortunately, both players dealt with health issues -- the former a foot injury that limited him to five games and the latter a heart condition that robbed him of preseason practice time -- and blew blocks on more than 4.0% of their attempts as rookies. And with McGary already 25 years old in his sophomore season, it's little wonder the Falcons have fallen to last in this year's rankings.

Really, most of the Falcons' young assets have similar career track records of more playing time than effectiveness. Defensive end Takk McKinley was supposed to restock a pass rush that stagnated with the regression of veteran Vic Beasley. But McKinley never even produced an outlier impact season. He has finished with 26.5 hurries and seven sacks or fewer in each of his three seasons, and the Falcons have already declined his fifth-year option for 2021. Cornerbacks Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield provided dreadful 46% and 38% coverage success rates in 2019, putting undue stress on first-rounder A.J. Terrell to become the team's top corner in his rookie season. Slot receiver Russell Gage had a mini breakout after the team traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots last season, but Gage's 446 yards belied a poor efficiency of a -14.1% DVOA.

If the Falcons uncover a young blue-chip asset by next season, chances are strong that he will come from their 2020 draft class. Beyond Terrell, that group is headlined by defensive lineman Marlon Davidson. Davidson was top-10 pick Derrick Brown's running mate at Auburn and even bested Brown with 11.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in his senior season, albeit with less blocking attention. Center Matt Hennessy and linebacker Mykal Walker also could contribute in 2020, although the former will likely see more playing time if veteran Alex Mack leaves in free agency in 2021 and the latter needs time to harness his athletic ability into on-field production.

Methodology

As is our standard, we have created these rankings based on a combination of factors:

• Number of starts made by players under 25 years old

• Number of snaps played by players under 25 years old

• Quality of play of players under 25 years old, age-adjusted to capture the fact that a 21-year-old player of X ability will likely improve more than a 23-year-old player of X ability and with extra consideration given to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections

• Relative importance of positions, in particular with quarterbacks being more important and running backs, kickers and punters being less important than other positions

• Draft value added in the 2020 draft with extra emphasis placed on the premium picks in the first two rounds

• Expected key starters and reserves under 25 years old for teams in 2020

• Team track records of talent evaluation and development

• Significant injuries or suspensions that will affect the 2020 availability of players under 25 years old

Stats to know

The rankings will frequently reference Football Outsiders statistics that might be unfamiliar to you. Here are definitions of the most frequently cited ones:

DVOA: Defense-adjusted yards over average, a metric of team or player rate of success per play accounting for play context.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted yards above replacement, a metric of player performance adjusted for the context of his attempts; commonly referred to as yards above replacement.

Adjusted line yards: a measure of run blocking weighted by the success of a team's carries, their game situations and their quality of opponents.

Adjusted sack rate: a measure of pass blocking that includes sacks and intentional grounding penalties.

Run stops: preventions of successful run plays as defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

Run defeats: preventions of rushing for first-down yardage on third or fourth down, rushing tackles behind the line of scrimmage or forced turnovers of the ball carrier.

Hurries: instances of a pass-rusher forcing a quarterback to throw the ball before he is ready.

Coverage success rate: percentage of pass plays a defender prevents a successful offensive play, either through incompletion or interception or a failure to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

Gross punt value: estimate of points gained or lost on punts over average, assuming average returns.

Gross kickoff value: estimate of points gained or lost on kickoffs over average, assuming average returns.

Snap-weighted age: the average age of a team weighted by the number of plays each player was on the field.

Adjusted games lost: measurement of the cost of injuries, both in terms of missed games and games in which players were not able to play to their full potential.