Football Outsiders' annual effort to rank every team by its talent under 25 years old has always provided a preview of the teams most likely to compete for the playoffs in future seasons. But these rankings have also increasingly captured teams' short-term chances of success, in particular for the ones that hit on their drafted quarterbacks and can use the cost savings from their rookie deals to load up on veteran skill-position and defensive talent.
Look no further than the 2018 Los Angeles Rams. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl the same year that they jumped from 27th to first in our under-25 rankings. Perhaps this year's top team can follow suit with a similar formula.
This year's rankings have a new wrinkle: We are still ranking teams based on their under-25 talent, but we are giving consideration to the value and length of those players' current contracts. That will push up the teams with productive players who have several years left on inexpensive rookie contracts and push down the teams that have already had to, or will soon have to, pay their experienced young talent. That change adds a bit of complexity to the rankings, but better aligns with the mission of this endeavor to identify the teams best positioned to succeed over the next few years.
Head here for more information on our ranking methodology, and go here for intel on some stats we reference throughout. You can learn more about these and other Football Outsiders statistics from this article, the Football Outsiders glossary, or in the newly released Football Outsiders Almanac for 2019.
Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are as of Sept. 1, 2019. "Blue-chip" players are cornerstone assets from whom teams will likely derive their biggest future value. Read through the full file 1 to 32, or jump to your favorite team by clicking on a link here:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ
OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Cleveland Browns
2018 ranking: 4
Blue-chip players: Baker Mayfield, QB; Denzel Ward, CB; Myles Garrett, DE; Kareem Hunt, RB
Notable graduated players: Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Joe Schobert, MLB; Emmanuel Ogbah, DE; Duke Johnson, RB; Trevon Coley, DT
Calling the Browns' draft-day decisions from 2016-2018 controversial might be underselling it. They traded away the No. 2 pick that became Carson Wentz; selected pass-rusher Myles Garrett ahead of quarterbacks Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson; and finally selected Mayfield and Denzel Ward with their resulting top-four picks when many preferred Sam Darnold, Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley, among others. Executive Sashi Brown and head coach Hue Jackson couldn't survive those decisions -- and maybe should not have, considering their entire body of work -- but new general manager John Dorsey and head coach Freddie Kitchens are poised to have the last laugh at the helm of the league's most valuable young roster.
Mayfield is the Browns' keystone asset. They were rewarded for adhering to QBASE-Football Outsiders' quarterback prospect projection system and other advanced metrics that preferred Mayfield to the more physically gifted Darnold and Josh Allen. Mayfield looks like a star in traditional statistics (63.8% completion percentage, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions) and by his 628 passing DYAR, 12th in the NFL, as a rookie.
Ward and Garrett join Mayfield as blue-chip players with several years left on their rookie deals. The former had the third-highest success rate in coverage in his rookie season (63%), and the latter was a top-10 run-stopper at his position who added 13.5 sacks and 33 hurries. Kareem Hunt contributed more than 300 combined rushing and receiving DYAR in 11 games in 2018 before the Chiefs cut him after the release of a video that showed him assaulting a woman in early 2018. If he continues his pace on the field after returning from an eight-game suspension, he and second-year back Nick Chubb could form the best running back duo in football.
Beyond their top talent, the Browns are flush with young depth on both sides of the ball in the form of receivers Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins, tight end David Njoku, and their second- and third-round draft picks in 2019, cornerback Greedy Williams and linebacker Sione Takitaki. They might not be the favorite to win the upcoming Super Bowl, but they will be the best-positioned team to make runs in each of the next five seasons if they can correctly balance their new talent's disparate personalities.
2. Indianapolis Colts
2018 ranking: 23
Blue-chip players: Quenton Nelson, LG; Darius Leonard, OLB; Malik Hooker, S; Braden Smith, RT
Notable graduated players: None
It would be difficult to currently grade the 2018 draft on an A-F scale because the Colts broke the curve. First- and second-round offensive linemen Nelson and Smith were blue-chip blockers from Week 1 on, combining to allow just 3.5 sacks on 1,991 snaps on the season. They transformed the worst pass-blocking offensive line from 2017 into one ranked second in adjusted sack rate in 2018 and helped Andrew Luck cut his total of sacks taken in half from 2016 (he missed 2017 due to injury). Linebacker Darius Leonard anchored a similarly massive defensive turnaround, from 31st in DVOA to ninth. His 37 run defeats trailed league-leader Luke Kuechly by just one with one fewer start. Even Day 3 running backs Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins were positive contributors, adding 73 and 61 DYAR, respectively, as a receiver and a rusher.
It was a magical season for the Colts, as their inconsistent 2017 rookies blossomed into productive and efficient players. Malik Hooker impressed more due to his lack of stats than with the value of them. Opposing quarterbacks targeted him just nine times over 913 snaps, the lowest rate at the position and an irrefutable sign of respect. Fellow second-year corner Kenny Moore was up for the increased attention -- he was top 25 at the position with a 56% success rate in coverage and further complemented Hooker as the No. 1 run-stopper at the position. Anthony Walker was a run-stopping force, as well, ranking top five among linebackers in both stop rate and yards per carry allowed on his run tackles. And Marlon Mack made a compelling case to be a workhorse running back. Mack's total of 215 rushing DYAR was fourth-best at the position, trailing only Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara.
Luck covered up the team's only weakness in 2018: receiver depth. T.Y. Hilton had a disproportionate amount of the team's receiving production with 359 DYAR; no other receiver or tight end had 70. But the Colts will likely eliminate that weakness in 2019 with their addition of second-round rookie Parris Campbell and the return of a healthy Deon Cain, who flashed potential with exceptional 4.43 and 6.71-second 40-yard dash and three-cone times at the 2018 combine before a torn ACL ended his rookie season before it began.
The team falls just short of the Browns in the under-25 rankings because they don't have a cost-controlled rookie quarterback, but they have perhaps the best one in Luck for at least the next three years. They might be the championship favorite in each of them.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
2018 ranking: 2
Blue-chip players: Patrick Mahomes, QB
Notable graduated players: Tyreek Hill, WR; Chris Jones, DE; Reggie Ragland, ILB
The Chiefs land one spot behind the Colts despite getting there in a polar-opposite fashion. With Hill and Jones each turning 25 before the start of the 2019 season and Hunt being released, the Chiefs are left with just one young blue-chip player. But what a player Mahomes is. He earned his 2018 MVP on the strength of 5,000 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns but was just as historically great with 40.1% DVOA and 2,039 DYAR, both comfortably first at the position. And he will still be 23 years old at the start of the 2019 season and have three years left on his rookie contract.
Mahomes could have propelled the Chiefs to the top spot in the under-25 rankings if he had any help from the team's 2018 draft picks, all six of whom played defense. Instead, they contributed just 17 combined starts and minimal production. Cornerback Kendall Fuller is still 24 and is an effective run-stopper, and former Jets linebacker Darron Lee immediately became the team's most accomplished young defender when they traded for him in May for a sixth-round pick in 2020. The Chiefs have to hope that Day 2 safety Juan Thornhill and defensive tackle Khalen Saunders can make quick contributions and help turn around the No. 26 DVOA defense from 2018.
They might not look great on paper, but there can be optimism about the Chiefs' defense because defensive performance is less consistent from year to year than offensive performance. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' offense and special teams were so good that they ended up as the No. 1 overall DVOA team in 2018 despite the defensive limitations. This offseason, the team added second-round rookie Mecole Hardman, who has the same makeup of speed and quickness that Hill has. And kicker Harrison Butker is the best under-25 asset at his position, hitting on 62 of his 69 career field goals and leading the league in gross kickoff value in 2018.
4. Houston Texans
2018 ranking: 14
Blue-chip players: Deshaun Watson, QB
Notable graduated players: Will Fuller V, WR; D.J. Reader, DT
The Texans continue the trend of top teams with cost-controlled young quarterbacks. Watson was at risk of a sophomore slump, as his amazing freshman production came in just six starts before a torn ACL prematurely ended his season. Instead, Watson was even better in 2018, completing 68.3% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He was the only quarterback who finished the year top 10 in passing and top five in rushing DYAR, just ahead of his NFL archetype Russell Wilson in both categories.
With a birthday the same week as Mahomes and career-to-date production better than every young quarterback but Mahomes, Watson is the second-best young asset in football. Injuries are the only major fear for his long-term value. The Texans are clearly concerned about Watson being knocked down 138 times in 2018 -- 27 more than any other quarterback -- because they drafted offensive tackles in the first and second rounds (Tytus Howard and Max Scharping). They should fortify a line that finished 30th and 32nd in adjusted sack rate in Watson's first two seasons, although some of that blame also falls on Watson's shoulders. Just because he performs so well on his passes under pressure doesn't mean Watson should stand in and take those hits.
The Texans didn't have a first- or second-round draft pick in 2018 because of the Watson and Brock Osweiler trades but have done a nice job of finding value in later rounds. Strong safety Justin Reid started 12 games in his rookie season and counterbalanced the rookie inconsistencies with some big plays, most notably a 101-yard interception return for a touchdown against the Redskins in Week 11. Tight ends Jordan Akins -- who is omitted from the ranking as a 27-year-old sophomore -- and Jordan Thomas combined to provide 62 DYAR on just 52 targets, making veteran Ryan Griffin expendable. Keke Coutee offers atypical speed from the slot and can play the No. 2 receiver spot if Fuller continues to struggle with injuries.
5. New York Giants
2018 ranking: 6
Blue-chip players: Saquon Barkley, RB; Daniel Jones, QB; Will Hernandez, LG
Notable graduated players: Landon Collins, S; Dalvin Tomlinson, DT; Chad Wheeler, RT
Giants GM Dave Gettleman has somehow made a slew of analytics-opposing trades and moves, but he still accumulated a top-five roster in under-25 talent. If his freshman season is any indication, Barkley is the once-in-a-generation rusher that might justify his top-five selection. His 94 broken tackles were 31 more than second-place finisher Christian McCaffrey, and Barkley will play his entire second season at just 22 years old. Still, it is difficult to make a compelling argument that Barkley will be anywhere close to as valuable as crosstown rival quarterback Sam Darnold, so the Giants will need to hit on this year's No. 6 pick from 2019, Jones.
QBASE is not a big fan of Jones thanks to his subpar college yards per attempt and completion rates. But Jones did not play with a single player who was drafted by the NFL in his three-year Duke career. It is possible he will improve more than his contemporaries because of a greater step up in surrounding talent.
That surrounding talent won't include star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., whom Gettleman traded to the Browns. It was a strange move for a team with a rookie quarterback and limited receiving options, but it subtracted a 26-year-old player who was already excluded from these rankings and added Jabrill Peppers and two 2019 draft picks -- Dexter Lawrence and Oshane Ximines -- who are 23 and younger. The Giants also have a young blue-chip left guard in Hernandez who allowed just 4.3 sacks over a line-leading 1,028 snaps, Football Outsiders' favorite unheralded prospect is pass-rusher Lorenzo Carter and the team has a pair of potential cornerback starters in 22-year-old Deandre Baker and 23-year-old Sam Beal. If fifth-round rookie receiver Darius Slayton adds a deep threat to a passing game that is overly skewed toward Barkley and tight end Evan Engram in the short passing game, then the Giants will have a valuable young asset at every level of their team.
6. Buffalo Bills
2018 ranking: 26
Blue-chip players: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB; Josh Allen, QB; Tre'Davious White, CB; Ed Oliver, DT
Notable graduated players: Matt Milano, OLB; Dion Dawkins, LT; Shaq Lawson, DE; Robert Foster, WR
The Bills' under-25 ranking has been a roller coaster in recent seasons, falling from seventh in 2017 to 26th last year as Sean McDermott jettisoned almost all of his incumbent talent before rebounding to sixth this year on the strength of a few top draft picks. Whether or not that roller coaster continues will rest on the shoulders of Allen.
QBASE was not a fan of Allen in college, projecting him with a higher bust rate than the other four first-round rookies in 2018 as well as third-rounder Mason Rudolph. Allen certainly wasn't stellar in his rookie season, but he counterbalanced his minus-35.9% DVOA as a passer with a 33.3% DVOA as a rusher. Cam Newton was not the comparison on the tip of many draft scouts' tongues, but perhaps he represents an archetype Allen can imitate to find success. Either way, Allen will need to improve his accuracy at all three levels -- his 52.8% completion rate was easily the worst of all starters.
Allen won't need to be a star the next few seasons for the Bills to compete thanks to some exciting young defensive talent. That group is headlined by last year's first-round pick, Edmunds. Edmunds didn't vault himself into the best linebacker conversation the way the Colts' Leonard did, but Edmunds did finish in the top 20 of all defenders with 23 run defeats. And unlike the 24-year-old Leonard, Edmunds is 21 and one of the youngest every-week starters in football. He likely will still improve.
The Bills injected youth between their veteran pass-rushers with Oliver, the No. 9 pick in this year's draft. And they are loaded with talent and potential in the secondary. Third-year corner White was 15th among cornerbacks in success rate in coverage. And Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson are intriguing corners, the former a surprisingly overlooked, productive player at Alabama and the latter an unsurprisingly underappreciated player from tiny Weber State.
7. New York Jets
2018 ranking: 17
Blue-chip players: Sam Darnold, QB; Jamal Adams, S; Quinnen Williams, DT
Notable graduated players: Leonard Williams, DE; Nathan Shepherd, DT; Jordan Jenkins, OLB
The Jets are nowhere close to as deep as the rival Giants in under-25 talent, but they nearly bridge that quantity gap with a few quality assets. Unlike Mayfield, who was taken two spots before him, Darnold looked like a rookie in parts of his rookie season. His 57.7% completion rate and 17-15 touchdown-interception ratio were unspectacular, but he was 21 years old, more than two years younger than Mayfield. Close to average in offensive DVOA is a good place to be as the youngest starting quarterback in the league. The No. 3 pick this year, defensive tackle Williams, will aim to be a similarly transformative player.
Adams is the Jets' lone blue-chip player who isn't relying on projection for that status. He was a run-stopping force in 2018 with 62 stops and 27 defeats and also more than held his own in coverage, with a 62% success rate that was 11th best at the position.
Beyond that big three, the Jets are a bit light on impactful young prospects. They traded their second-round picks in both 2018 and 2019 to move up to take Darnold, which leaves them with 2019 third-rounders Jachai Polite and Chuma Edoga as their next-best prospects. Tight end Christopher Herndon also showed promise, with 50 DYAR on just 56 targets in his rookie 2018 season, but he'll start 2019 with a four-game substance-abuse suspension.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 ranking: 18
Blue-chip players: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR; T.J. Watt, OLB; Terrell Edmunds, S; Devin Bush, LB
Notable graduated players: Mike Hilton, CB
The Steelers lost two of the NFL's biggest stars in Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell this offseason. But stardom does not always correspond with value, and the Steelers are incredibly well-equipped to replace from within. Smith-Schuster already has 169 receptions, 2,343 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 552 DYAR in his two-year professional career and will only be 22 at the start of this season. James Washington and Diontae Johnson are Day 2 candidates to take over the No. 2 receiver role.
James Conner proved to be more than capable of taking over Bell's workhorse role in 2018, adding 178 DYAR as a rusher and receiver and breaking 56 tackles, a top-five total at the position. Even if Conner regresses or buckles under another extreme workload in 2019, sophomore receiving back Jaylen Samuels was surprisingly effective as a runner in 2018 and could step into an expanded role. They may even have their starting quarterback of the future in Mason Rudolph should Ben Roethlisberger ever make good on his retirement considerations.
For all of their young offensive talent, the Steelers might have more on defense. Watt did a decent impression of his older brother, with 13.0 sacks and 33 hurries as a pass-rushing linebacker in his rookie season. He was also a force in run defense, boasting a top-five stop rate of 90%. First-round rookie Devin Bush should plug-and-play at inside linebacker. And last year's top pick, strong safety Terrell Edmunds, was a capable pass and run defender as an every-week rookie starter.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
2018 ranking: 13
Blue-chip players: Derwin James, S; Joey Bosa, DE; Hunter Henry, TE
Notable graduated players: Dan Feeney, LG; Jatavis Brown, OLB; Darius Philon, DT
The Chargers and the No. 11 team in these rankings could move around a bit depending on the length of the holdouts of their workhorse running backs. But no team is better equipped to be without a Melvin Gordon-level talent at running back than the Chargers. Austin Ekeler produced 190 DYAR in a 2018 campaign skewed heavily toward receiving in his third-down role. And rookie Justin Jackson showed every-down potential, adding 43 DYAR on just 65 total touches. Both backs broke tackles at a greater clip than Gordon did.
Really, the Chargers might be fine without any running backs. Wideout Mike Williams enjoyed a sneaky breakout in his second season, producing 262 DYAR -- 13th most at the position -- on just 66 targets. Tight end Hunter Henry was third among tight ends with 165 DYAR in his sophomore season before a torn ACL erased his 2018 season, and he'll be back to full health in 2019.
All of this skill talk is burying the lede, which is that the Chargers owe their top-10 under-25 ranking to their pair of defensive first-rounders, Joey Bosa and Derwin James. Bosa missed the first two and a half months of 2018 with a foot injury, but quickly returned to form with 5.5 sacks and 13 hurries in just six starts to the end the year. And James may have entered the NFL as the game's most versatile defensive player. He led all defensive backs in hurries, finished fourth in run tackles, and finished 15th in coverage success rate. After adding defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and safety Nasir Adderley with their first two picks in the 2019 draft, the Chargers' defense may become more dominant than their offense. They were already the only team in 2018 to finish top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
10. Arizona Cardinals
2018 ranking: 28
Blue-chip players: Kyler Murray, QB; Budda Baker, S
Notable graduated players: None
The Cardinals likely sabotaged their chances of a top-five ranking by trading away their first-, third-, and fifth-round draft picks in 2018 to move up and take Josh Rosen, whom they subsequently traded away after one disappointing season for a second- and future fifth-round pick. Still, after finishing 31st and 28th the past two years in the under-25 rankings, 10th is an exciting place to be.
The silver lining of Rosen's poor play was that it helped earn the Cardinals get the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2019, and quarterback Kyler Murray will be the team's best under-25 asset if he can live up to that billing. QBASE would have liked Murray more if he had started more than just one season at Oklahoma, but there's a good explanation for his lack of playing time: He sat behind fellow Heisman winner and apparent NFL star Baker Mayfield. As a top-10 draft pick in baseball as well as football, it's clear that Murray has the physical tools to become an exceptional quarterback.
Larry Fitzgerald has been the Cardinals' one-man receiving corps for the past decade, but the 36-year-old should finally have some help from a trio of promising young receivers. Christian Kirk added 57 DYAR on just 68 targets before a broken foot ended his rookie season. He'll be back and healthy in 2019 and joined by second- and fourth-round draft picks Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, two of the best receiver prospects according to our Playmaker Rating.
On defense, Haason Reddick has not lived up to his status as a first-round selection in 2017. He had just four sacks and 10 hurries over 846 snaps last season and allowed a broken tackle on 29.2% of his attempted tackles, second worst among defenders who recorded 40 or more tackles. But the team's second-rounder that season, Baker, has stepped up as an exceptional run-stopper. He allowed just 4.3 yards per carry on the runs on which he tackled, and his 24 defeats were the second most among safeties, behind only Jamal Adams.
11. Dallas Cowboys
2018 ranking: 9
Blue-chip players: Leighton Vander Esch, OLB; Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Notable graduated players: Amari Cooper, WR
As I write this, one half of the Cowboys' duo of blue-chip under-25 players has yet to report to camp. And if Elliott holds out into the regular season or lands the long-term extension he wants, he will sabotage the value the past two years of his rookie contract would otherwise represent. But as productive as Elliott is -- he added 201 DYAR as a rusher and a receiver last year -- running backs don't dramatically move the needle of team value. Linebacker Vander Esch is the clear driver of the Cowboys' No. 11 under-25 ranking. He slotted just between the game's preeminent middle linebackers in Bobby Wagner (5.4%) and Luke Kuechly (7.4%) with a 6.6% broken tackle rate and looks like the steal of the first round of the 2018 draft at pick No. 19.
Beyond Elliott and Vander Esch, the Cowboys have a lot of young potential. Left guard Connor Williams allowed a respectable 4.5 sacks in 689 snaps over 10 starts in his rookie season. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins had seven defeats and allowed just 0.1 yards per carry on his run tackles, best at the position. Middle linebacker Jaylon Smith had more combined run stops and defeats than Vander Esch. Smith also allowed more than twice as many broken tackles and struggled in coverage, as did cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and free safety Xavier Woods. Still, they are three capable starters under 25 years old who should help the Cowboys still-young core -- Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott and DeMarcus Lawrence will be 25, 26, and 27 this season -- try to extend their streak of finishes over .500 to four straight seasons.
12. Carolina Panthers
2018 ranking: 20
Blue-chip players: Christian McCaffrey, RB; DJ Moore, WR; Brian Burns, LB
Notable graduated players: Taylor Moton, RT, Shaq Thompson, LB
The Panthers will likely live or die by the health of their quarterback Cam Newton in 2019, but GM Marty Hurney has done his best to add speed and quickness to ease Newton's burden. Running back McCaffrey has already paid dividends, adding more than 150 DYAR as both a runner and receiver in 2018 and breaking 63 tackles, more than every other back except Saquon Barkley. Receiver Moore produced moderate sums of 55 catches and 788 yards in his rookie season, but led the position with 7.7 average yards after contact and a 39.7% broken-tackle rate.
At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Moore looks like a younger version of the only receiver who broke more total tackles than his 27 last season, Golden Tate. Curtis Samuel has not been as consistently successful, but his five touchdowns on just 39 catches a year ago flashed his exceptional playmaking ability. Those players should help Newton unload the ball more quickly than he could with his previous big-but-slow receivers, Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin. Second-round rookie offensive tackle Greg Little can add time if he can solidify Newton's blind side.
On defense, Burns may have been the fourth edge rusher off the board in the 2019 draft, but he led all prospects in Football Outsiders' pass-rusher projection rating, SackSEER. Increased pass pressure would make a thin secondary look better regardless of its talent, and second-year cornerback Donte Jackson can help if he becomes more consistent. He showed potential as a run-stopper in 2018 with 12 defeats, but he also allowed a 21.5% broken tackle rate that is high for the position.
13. Washington Redskins
2018 ranking: 30
Blue-chip players: Daron Payne, DT; Jonathan Allen, DE; Dwayne Haskins, QB, Montez Sweat, DE
Notable graduated players: Kyle Fuller, G; Matt Ioannidis, DE
The Redskins are another team with the top-end quality to make the top 10 of the under-25 rankings, but not the quantity. Their No. 13 ranking will seem way too low if rookie Haskins is the franchise quarterback the team believes him to be.
QBASE is lukewarm on Haskins despite his outstanding college production because Haskins lacks experience and had an incredible supporting cast at Ohio State. He had two receivers -- Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin -- drafted on Day 2, and two offensive linemen -- Michael Jordan and Isaiah Prince -- drafted on Day 3 this year. McLaurin joins Haskins on the Redskins and should be prominently involved from Week 1 as part of an otherwise underwhelming corps of receivers. Haskins will hope to have help from young running backs Derrius Guice and Bryce Love, but both are recovering from torn ACLs. Veteran Adrian Peterson will lead their backfield until they are ready.
The Redskins have made over their defensive line the past three drafts via Jonathan Allen, Da'Ron Payne and Sweat all falling further than expected in their respective first rounds. Allen and Payne each made more than 40 stops and 10 defeats in 2018 and anchor what looks like a loaded run defense on paper. The unit just hasn't actually lived up to that billing the past two years, finishing 32nd and 29th in adjusted line yards.
The Redskins are actually much better as pass-rushers, and the rookie Sweat should make them even stronger. SackSEER tabs him as the second-best pass-rushing prospect in this year's class, but he fell to 26th in the draft after he was apparently misdiagnosed with a heart condition at the combine. If he really is healthy, he will be well worth the two second-round picks the Redskins traded to move back into the first round to take him.
14. Oakland Raiders
2018 ranking: 19
Blue-chip players: Clelin Ferrell, DE
Notable graduated players: Karl Joseph, SS; Jalen Richard, RB
The Raiders took a healthy dose of criticism for trading Khalil Mack -- especially while Mack provided five sacks, four forced fumbles, an interception, and a touchdown in the Bears' first five games in 2018 -- but at least they paid forward some part of his value because they were ill-equipped to compete in Mack's current peak years. It would have helped if they hadn't spent the first of their two gained first-round draft picks on Josh Jacobs, who plays a less valuable position at running back and isn't a slam-dunk prospect at the position in any case. Jacobs has the worst BackCAST projection of any back taken in the first round this century thanks to low volume and inefficiency at Alabama, and a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash time at his pro day. At least he breaks a lot of tackles. And at least the Raiders have another first- and third-round pick coming in 2020.
Their under-25 talent may not be as good as it could have been, but the Raiders still have a decent amount of it. No. 4 pick from 2019 Ferrell most likely won't be the pass-rusher Mack is -- hardly anyone in the history of the game has been -- but he is cost-controlled and better aligns with the Raiders' delayed window of contention. Offensive linemen Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker each allowed 10.7 sacks as rookies, but they also started impressive totals of 16 and 12 games, respectively. A first-rounder in 2017, Gareon Conley enjoyed a 60% success rate in coverage, 11th best among cornerbacks. And pass-rushers Arden Key and Maurice Hurst both looked promising in part-time roles in 2018. Hurst, in particular, could prove to be a fifth-round steal if the heart condition teams discovered at his combine does not deter his exceptional pass-rushing. With 2019 first-rounder Johnathan Abram poised to displace the graduating Karl Joseph at safety, the Raiders have the makings of a productive young defense.
15. Green Bay Packers
2018 ranking: 25
Blue-chip players: Jaire Alexander, CB
Notable graduated players: Blake Martinez, LB; Geronimo Allison, WR
The Packers had come up a bit short of their reputation as one of the best talent evaluators and developers in recent years, but prudent trades and injury-driven poor seasons have fully restocked their prospect cupboard. The team made 11 total picks in the 2018 draft and three in the top 50 in 2019.
Cornerback Alexander is their only recent pick I'd label as blue-chip right now. He is a first-round prospect and had a 52% success rate in coverage as a 21-year-old rookie, top 40 at the position. Second-round corner Josh Jackson is a year older and was not quite as effective with a 44% success rate, but like Alexander, he logged more than 700 snaps as a rookie and looks like a capable starter. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark eclipsed 700 snaps as well, and actually led the team's rotation of defensive linemen in snaps at just 23 years old in 2018. Defensive end Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage are both 2019 first-rounders who can add to both the front and back ends of the team's defense, and potentially offset the loss of young safety Josh Jones if they decide to acquiesce to his desire for a trade.
More than anywhere, the Packers are flush with young talent at the skill positions. Running back Aaron Jones progressed from suspended to every-down option in short order in 2018, producing 146 rushing and 33 receiving DYAR in just 12 games. At the very least, backfield teammate and fellow 24-year-old Jamaal Williams should be his capable backup. He added 63 DYAR.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling narrowly beat the replacement level at receiver across 73 rookie targets. He and fellow Day 3 rookies J'Mon Moore and Equanimeous St. Brown offer three swings at a quality starter opposite star wideout Davante Adams. And third-round rookie tight end Jace Sternberger has the route-running ability and hands to inherit the move tight end role from Jimmy Graham as the latter's career winds down. Aaron Rodgers should be energized by his stable of new weapons and new schemes from first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. One can only hope Rodgers will stay healthy to enjoy them.
16. Cincinnati Bengals
2018 ranking: 27
Blue-chip players: Billy Price, C
Notable graduated players: Bobby Hart, RT
The Bengals may have waited too long to move on from coach Marvin Lewis for many fans; Lewis won just six, seven, and six games in his final three seasons after never winning a playoff game in his best years. But three straight seasons of astute Day 2 trade-downs in the draft have helped the team add extra picks to rebuild on the fly and jumped them 11 spots from the No. 27 under-25 ranking from last year.
The plan to add more bites at the apple is a good one for a team that has just one of its four first- and second-round picks from 2014 and 2015 still on the roster, and is staring at another potential bust in 2017 first-rounder John Ross. Our rankings haven't totally given up on Ross. He is an elite athlete who has been limited by shoulder and groin injuries his first two seasons. Teammates Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are examples of late bloomers that Ross can point to. Mixon ran for 154 DYAR in 2018, and Boyd added 305 DYAR as a receiver, nearly double the total of star veteran A.J. Green (155). Boyd already signed an extension, but one at just over $11 million in guarantees that looks like a bargain next to more-expensive, less-accomplished receivers like Quincy Enunwa ($20 million) and Adam Humphries ($12 million).
Unless Ross breaks out, the Bengals don't have any sexy young talent, but they have depth with productive second-year center Price and safety Jessie Bates as well as six picks from the first four rounds of the 2019 draft. Fourth-rounder Ryan Finley may not be the long-term solution at quarterback, but new head coach Zac Taylor has inherited and quickly compiled some intriguing young talent to help any future quarterback hit the ground running.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 ranking: 7
Blue-chip players: Jalen Ramsey, CB; Josh Allen, LB; Yannick Ngakoue, DE
Notable graduated players: Dede Westbrook, WR
The Jaguars owe much of last year's marked decline from eighth to 22nd in total DVOA to injuries. They lost 88.4 adjusted games to injuries on offense alone in 2018, the third most by a team since 2011. Unfortunately, the team's drop from seventh to 17th in the under-25 rankings illustrates that they did not have an extended window to compete with their dominant defense. They did avoid a setback this week, as defensive end Ngakoue's holdout ended. He'll continue to be an important building block, coming off a year with 9.5 sacks and 38 hurries.
For all the negatives, the Jaguars are still decently positioned as a contender. Ramsey was productive in 2018, with a 55% success rate covering one of the hardest collections of No. 1 receivers any cornerback faced, and he has two years left on his rookie deal. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Josh Allen, should be an immediate threat as a pass-rusher and can offset some of Ngakoue's lost production if it comes to that. Linebacker Myles Jack showed three-down ability with a 59% success rate in coverage, and should help the team overcome the unexpected loss of Telvin Smith. Furthermore, sophomore safety Ronnie Harrison looks like an upgrade over the released Barry Church. Harrison is already an accomplished run-stopper and has an 80-plus-inch wingspan that should help him develop in coverage and possibly play nickel linebacker. On paper, this defense is poised for its third straight season in the top 10 of DVOA.
The major questions are on offense. Leonard Fournette has performed better in advanced metrics than his 3.9 and 3.3 yards-per-carry averages in 2017 and 2018 would suggest. With Blake Bortles under center, he constantly faced overloaded boxes. The Jags hope new quarterback Nick Foles can ease some of that burden while returning starter Cam Robinson and intriguing prospects Jawaan Taylor and Will Richardson should improve their line-blocking regardless.
18. Detroit Lions
2018 ranking: 15
Blue-chip players: Frank Ragnow, LG/C; T.J. Hockenson, TE
Notable graduated players: Kenny Golladay, WR
The Lions dropped only three spots in the under-25 rankings from last year, an impressive feat for a team that loses credit for the now-25-year-old breakout receiver Kenny Golladay. The key to that ranking resilience is a newfound offensive balance. Rookie left guard Ragnow was inconsistent as a pass protector, but he was the driving force of the team's major improvements on power runs to the left side. His return to his natural position of center will likely help distribute those gains across their entire line. Meanwhile, running back Kerryon Johnson clearly has the versatility to succeed on myriad types of touches. His 20 receiving DYAR no doubt motivated the team's willingness to release long-time receiving back Theo Riddick. Meanwhile, top-10 pick Hockenson is the rare tight end prospect who should contribute as both a blocker and a pass-catcher.
With Jarrad Davis settled into his career as a good-but-not-great middle linebacker, the Lions lack a blue-chip young defender. But their roster is littered with many of Football Outsiders' favorite late-round prospects. Defensive end Da'Shawn Hand is a former No. 1 high school recruit who underperformed at Alabama and slipped to the fourth round. He showcased that natural talent with 14 hurries and six defeats in just 455 snaps as a rookie. Safety Tracy Walker fell in the draft for the opposite reason; his lack of exposure at a small school, Louisiana-Lafayette, caused some teams to overlook his strong college production. A 4.51-second 40 time shows that he has the athleticism to play free safety at the highest level, and he further excelled as a rookie when he lined up near the line of scrimmage. If even two of Hand, Walker, and 2019 Day 2 picks linebacker Jahlani Tavai and safety Will Harris can become productive starters, the Lions will have the first complete team of Matthew Stafford's tenure.
19. San Francisco 49ers
2018 ranking: 12
Blue-chip players: Nick Bosa, DE; Fred Warner, MLB
Notable graduated players: Mike McGlinchey, RT; DeForest Buckner, DT; George Kittle, TE; Reuben Foster, OLB; C.J. Beathard, QB; Arik Armstead, DE
The 49ers are a difficult team to rank, and the most likely one to either over- or underperform their No. 19 ranking by 10 or more spots. So many of their prospects will succeed or fail in tandem with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who still has just 10 starts to his credit despite entering the season in which he'll turn 28 years old. Day 2 receiver picks Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel, and Jalen Hurd offer all of the size and athleticism you could want from the slot, out wide, and possibly even the backfield. Pettis led the team's wideouts with 109 DYAR in just 12 games a year ago. Tailback Matt Breida is 24 years old, coming off a breakout season of 163 DYAR, but he may be relegated to the role of overqualified backup with the addition of free agent Tevin Coleman and return of a healthy Jerick McKinnon. If any coach can stitch all of that potential into a successful offense, it's Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers have expended a lot of early draft capital on defensive linemen in the second half of the past decade -- without much to show for it. No. 2 pick from 2019 Bosa will try to upend that streak, and 2017 No. 3 pick Solomon Thomas teased a chance of a late bloom with 20 hurries in 2018. He just had trouble closing, collecting one lonely sack. Linebacker Warner was an every-week rookie starter who looks capable of handling an every-down role, with a 56% coverage success rate, 20th at the position.
There is no hint of a quarterback controversy, but Nick Mullens was surprisingly effective in his rookie year, completing 64.2% of his passes for 286 DYAR, 24th most at the position. He was undrafted, and therefore doesn't offer three more years of controlled costs, but he could bolster the 49ers' youth as a trade candidate in 2019 or 2020 if the team retrains him as an exclusive-rights free agent.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 ranking: 5
Blue-chip players: Devin White, LB; O.J. Howard, TE
Notable graduated players: Jameis Winston, QB; Kwon Alexander, MLB; Caleb Benenoch, RG; Peyton Barber, RB
The Buccaneers were a top-five team in the under-25 rankings in 2017 and 2018, and they have done the right team-building things since then, like trading down from seventh to 12th to add a pair of second-round picks in the 2018 draft and trading an early third-round pick for two later third-round picks in the 2019 draft. The reason the Buccaneers have fallen precipitously to the No. 20 ranking is that they have failed to hit on their premium draft picks.
Now 25, Winston would have been excluded from consideration here no matter his career-to-date performance. And despite the chatter that follows the team, the Buccaneers' passing game is the team's most valuable unit. Beyond the veterans, tight end Howard and wide receiver Chris Godwin both excelled in limited opportunities in 2018, the former limited because of foot and ankle injuries and the latter because of a crowded depth chart. This year, both will have a chance to start and play all season and try to sustain their 2018 paces of more than a yard above replacement per target.
Second-round running back Ronald Jones was tabbed to add balance to the Buccaneers' offense, but he endured a dreadful season, falling 30 yards below replacement on just 32 touches. He's still behind the pedestrian Peyton Barber on the depth chart. Their first-round defensive tackle from 2018, Vita Vea, disappointed with a low 68% run stop percentage in his rookie season. And their three rookie defensive backs -- Carlton Davis, M.J. Stewart, and Jordan Whitehead -- defensed just 11 passes across 28 combined starts.
The team likely added its best defensive asset in the 2019 draft with No. 5 pick White, but even he may not be an immediate boon for the team because he is replacing the departed Kwon Alexander. Otherwise, the team looks committed to improving its secondary that dragged the defense down to 31st and 30th against the pass the past two seasons. They added cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean and cornerback-turned-safety Mike Edwards all on Day 2, and will hope to have 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves -- still just 24 -- back healthy for the first time since his rookie season.
21. Miami Dolphins
2018 ranking: 21
Blue-chip players: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S
Notable graduated players: Laremy Tunsil, LT; Kenyan Drake, RB
Whether or not they are "tanking," the Dolphins made the trade of the offseason, giving up a second- and future fifth-round pick to land quarterback Josh Rosen just a year removed from his being drafted 10th overall. It is clear why Rosen's star fell so dramatically. His total of -1,145 passing DYAR was the worst in the Football Outsiders era (1986-present). But Rosen racked up that lack of production over 13 starts behind an offensive line that allowed pressure on 35.4% of the team's dropbacks, the fourth-worst rate in the NFL. Jared Goff and Alex Smith provide two recent examples of quarterbacks who recovered from disastrous rookie seasons when their situations improved. And Rosen outperformed both players by DVOA in their respective rookie seasons.
Improved quarterback play would likely show a roster in Miami not nearly as bad as its reputation. Running back Kalen Ballage efficiently produced 16 rushing DYAR on just 36 carries in his rookie year and should be a capable complement to veteran Kenyan Drake. Mike Gesicki still has the physical gifts that made him a second-round pick in 2018 and is hardly the first tight end to struggle in his freshman season.
Defensively, first-round rookie defensive tackle Christian Wilkins can anchor a run defense that already boasts a pair of run-stopping young defensive tackles (Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor) in addition to two young linebackers (Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker) who each finished in the top 20 in 2018 in run-stop percentage. Finally, the addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick provided a badly needed pass defender next to exceptional 26-year-old corner Xavien Howard. Fitzpatrick had a 60% coverage success rate in his first year, which should serve him well as he rotates between safety and cornerback in 2019.
If Rosen can't help make this roster into a competitive team, then the Dolphins will likely land even higher on next year's under-25 rankings after they draft a new quarterback.
22. New Orleans Saints
2018 ranking: 3
Blue-chip players: Alvin Kamara, RB
Notable graduated players: Ryan Ramczyk, RT; Sheldon Rankins, DT; Andrus Peat, LG; Wil Lutz, K
The Saints are one of the biggest fallers in the under-25 rankings, a decline stemming from a combination of factors. They lose credit for graduating blue-chip, 25-year-old offensive linemen Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat, who allowed just 2.5 sacks across 1,735 combined snaps last year. Exceptional rookie corner Marshon Lattimore declined sharply against the pass and the run in his sophomore season, allowing 10.7 yards per target, which was third worst among qualified cornerbacks. Free safety Marcus Williams also took a step back in his second season, and though Eli Apple boosted the secondary as a midseason acquisition, the Saints showed their pessimism for his future value when they declined his 2020 fifth-year option this summer. He and strong safety Vonn Bell are both 24 and entering the final years of their rookie deals.
Finally, the Saints suffered from disappointing seasons from their top two 2018 draft picks, defensive end Marcus Davenport and wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith. That was particularly distressing given that the team traded its 2019 first to move up to take Davenport and was desperate for a second receiver to take pressure off of No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas.
The Saints fall no further than 22nd because all of those young players are rebound candidates (or, in the case of the 2018 picks, improvement candidates) and because Alvin Kamara may be both the best running back and receiving back in the league. He added an astounding 435 DYAR -- second most behind Gurley -- in a sophomore year that was somehow still down because of his impossible standard. At age 24, and with two years left on his rookie deal, he is one of only a handful of running backs who contribute significant value in the under-25 rankings.
23. Denver Broncos
2018 ranking: 29
Blue-chip players: Bradley Chubb, OLB
Notable graduated players: Phillip Lindsay, RB; Justin Simmons, S
The Broncos enjoyed a four-year run of 12 or more wins between 2012 and 2015 that culminated in a Super Bowl win in early 2016. But subsequent late picks and draft busts -- most notably first-round quarterback Paxton Lynch -- dragged the Broncos to a nadir of a last-place ranking in the under-25 rankings back in 2017.
They needed to rebound in the 2018 draft, and early indications are that they did in a big way. No. 5 overall pick Bradley Chubb practically mirrored Von Miller's production of 14.5 sacks and 36 hurries with 12.0 sacks and 35 hurries of his own, and Chubb is one of the top defensive assets in football. Neither running back Royce Freeman nor receiver Courtland Sutton wowed with their traditional statistics, but both produced above the replacement level for their positions in their rookie seasons and have room to grow. Already 25 years old, Phillip Lindsay has likely reached his peak. But 203 DYAR would be an impressive peak for a first-round running back and is an unbelievable bonus from an undrafted free agent. DaeSean Hamilton cannot separate down the field, but he showed promise as a slot option, dropping just one of his 45 rookie targets. All told, the team's 2018 draft class powered a six-spot jump in the under-25 rankings.
There's no question the Broncos are in better shape than they were at this time last year, but they risk being caught between two paths. Their trade for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco and re-signing of cornerback Chris Harris suggest a plan to try to make a final playoff push with what's left of the core of their Super Bowl team. But trading down from pick 10 to 20 and taking tight end Noah Fant and quarterback Drew Lock with two of their three top-50 picks may not help them in that short-term window. They can walk that tightrope in the early season, but if they get off to a slow start, it might make sense for the Broncos to trade some veteran pieces before the deadline to accelerate a full rebuild.
24. Los Angeles Rams
2018 ranking: 1
Blue-chip players: Jared Goff, QB
Notable graduated players: Brandin Cooks, WR; Todd Gurley, RB; Cory Littleton, ILB; Gerald Everett, TE; Dante Fowler Jr., OLB
The Rams experienced the biggest rise in the under-25 rankings from 27th in 2017 to first in 2018 -- and now suffer the biggest fall, from first to 24th this season. Jared Goff's career production is at the heart of both extremes. His disastrous rookie season in 2016 that featured a 54.6% completion percentage seemed to sabotage the talent around him; most notably, Gurley finished with minus-66 DYAR that year but has finished with at least 170 DYAR in his other three seasons. Goff's unprecedented turnaround restored Gurley's true self and elevated the team's trio of new receivers Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Now, Gurley and those three receivers have aged out of the under-25 rankings, as have defensive starters Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler. Ironically, Goff is the team's last young blue-chip player standing, just two years after he was summarily dismissed as a bust.
The Rams' rapid decline in the rankings is by design. The team traded two firsts, a second, and three third-round draft picks to obtain the Goff pick, and another first for Cooks. After trading the 31st pick for a pair of Day 2 picks in the 2019 draft, the Rams have now gone three years without a first-round pick. That strategy has already been successful thanks to a Super Bowl appearance, but it will be difficult to sustain after Goff's salary balloons in the final year of his rookie deal in 2020.
Third-round safety John Johnson and fourth-round linebacker Samson Ebukam have developed into quality starters. The former led the team with 965 defensive snaps in 2018 and compiled 50 run stops. The latter was one of the team's most productive pass-rushers, with 28 hurries. If they can land a few more impact players out of their four Day 2 2019 draft picks, then perhaps they can offset the escalating costs of their star veterans. Otherwise, they are going to have to hope that their core of Goff, Gurley, Cooks, Woods and Aaron Donald can carry a cast of rotating characters to continued success.
25. Baltimore Ravens
2018 ranking: 22
Blue-chip players: Lamar Jackson, QB; Marquise Brown, WR; Marlon Humphrey, CB
Notable graduated players: Ronnie Stanley, LT; Tavon Young, CB
In some ways, Lamar Jackson was the most successful rookie quarterback in 2019. He took over a middling Ravens team in Week 10 and rattled off six wins in seven weeks to lead them to an AFC North title. But there are myriad reasons to be skeptical of his chances to continue that success. First, defensive improvements carried the team's second-half resurgence; Jackson's offense was actually worse (-3.4% DVOA) than Joe Flacco's from the first half (4.3%). Second, Jackson threw just 23 passes per start, barely half of Flacco's total. The novelty of such an extreme offense likely caught many of their opponents off guard, but other teams have since had the offseason and the film from the Chargers' playoff win over the Ravens to try to solve it. And third, Jackson was not even an otherworldly productive runner, given his alarming total of 15 fumbles in just eight regular and postseason starts.
Meanwhile, the Ravens lost a ton of veteran defensive talent with the free-agent departures of C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Brent Urban, Eric Weddle and Za'Darius Smith, and have mostly inexperienced players to take their places. If either Tyus Bowser or third-round rookie Jaylon Ferguson can rush the passer and if linebacker Kenny Young can emerge as a defensive leader, the team should survive the losses. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is their only under-25 defender who looks like a sure thing, coming off a season with a 66% coverage success rate, second best among cornerbacks.
The Ravens have been a model franchise in talent development in recent seasons and seem to have landed two more late-round gems in 2018 in third-round tight end Mark Andrews and undrafted running back Gus Edwards. Both players added more than 100 DYAR in their rookie seasons. Later-round picks Miles Boykin and Justice Hill from this year's draft could be next in that line, but the Ravens also took a big swing to fix their talent deficit with Marquise Brown, the first receiver off the board at pick No. 25. Brown had the second-highest Playmaker Rating among this year's receiver prospects and headlines the surrounding talent that will allow Jackson to succeed or fail on his own merits.
26. Atlanta Falcons
2018 ranking: 16
Blue-chip players: Calvin Ridley, WR; Keanu Neal, S; Deion Jones, MLB
Notable graduated players: Duke Riley, OLB; Wes Schweitzer, LG
The Falcons are hurt most by our change in methodology to consider team control rather than just 2019 value. Linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal are clearly blue-chip players, but they will both be 24 this season. The former already has an expensive new deal, and Neal is down to the last two years of his rookie contract. With both defenders back after missing the bulk of 2018 on injured reserve, the Falcons' defense should improve markedly and help the team return to contention alongside their perennial top-10 offense. But their window of rookie-deal-buoyed surplus value is clearly at an end, hence the No. 26 ranking.
On offense, the team added a pair of first-round offensive linemen in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary in 2019 and traded away its second- and third-round picks to do it. Clearly, the Falcons recognize they are short on time to compete for a Super Bowl. They'll hope McGary can return quickly from his recent heart procedure. Calvin Ridley is old for a sophomore at 24; he was already productive with 167 DYAR and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season but may not have the same room to grow as the league's younger blue-chip receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and D.J. Moore. Austin Hooper has been around long enough to disappoint fantasy fans expecting a breakout, but he's still just 24 as well, and led all tight ends in catch rate adjusted for pass location while catching a career-best 71 passes in 2018. If defensive end Takkarist McKinley follow's Hooper's lead of modest yearly improvements, then the Falcons should have all the pieces they need to compete for the next couple of seasons.
27. Chicago Bears
2018 ranking: 10
Blue-chip players: Roquan Smith, ILB; James Daniels, LG
Notable graduated players: Mitchell Trubisky, QB; Eddie Goldman, DT
The Bears accelerated the timetable that made them the No. 10 team in the under-25 rankings this time last year with their blockbuster trade for Khalil Mack. I doubt the team regrets that decision the year after recording the eighth-best defensive season in DVOA history (1986-2018), but it did cost them their first- and second-round draft picks this year, and drove their decline to the No. 27 ranking. The other major player in that decline is Mitchell Trubisky, who has turned 25 and also failed to provide a definitive answer of whether he can be the team's franchise quarterback.
Surrounded by veterans, the Bears' top rookie selection from last year, Roquan Smith, was a capable defensive anchor. He was strong against the run, with 18 defeats, and against the pass, with a 54% success rate in coverage, 25th among linebackers. On paper, that unit could be even stronger in 2019, especially if 2018 fifth-round defensive end Bilal Nichols continues his efficiency -- he had nine defeats over 328 snaps -- in an expanded role next year. But history suggests defenses regress more year to year than offenses, so the Bears will likely need their offense to improve to counterbalance the likely defensive regression.
Several under-25 players can collectively make that happen. Left guard James Daniels was a tremendous second-round value; he did not allow a sack over 762 snaps last year. Anthony Miller led the team's receivers with 71 DYAR and should play more in Year 2, coming off a season-ending shoulder dislocation. Passing back Tarik Cohen was the team's most productive receiver regardless of position last season, and Jordan Howard (who was below-average in running efficiency last season) has been replaced by third-round rookie David Montgomery.
28. Minnesota Vikings
2018 ranking: 8
Blue-chip players: Brian O'Neill, RT; Danielle Hunter, DE
Notable graduated players: Stefon Diggs, WR; Pat Elflein, C
The Vikings have prominent veterans at quarterback and the skill positions, but their pair of young blue-chip players come from their offensive and defensive lines. Brian O'Neill allowed just one sack in 800 snaps in his rookie season. An increase in playing time for O'Neill and the addition of rookie center Garrett Bradbury could fortify a unit that has finished in the bottom-six teams in pressure rate the last two seasons. Defensive end Danielle Hunter turned in his usual excellent season in 2018 with 14.5 sacks and 39 hurries, but he already has four years of NFL experience and a big-money new contract at 24 years old. The Vikings are no doubt thrilled to have him locked up through 2023, but he is no longer a boon in these rankings given his age and cost.
Away from the line, running back Dalvin Cook will play all of the 2019 season at 24 years old. And while he has struggled with knee and hamstring injuries throughout his career, he has still produced 21 rushing and 40 receiving DYAR in two seasons and could do more with better health in the back half of his rookie deal. Cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Holton Hill did not play a ton as rookies behind veterans Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, but they have potential; the former as a first-round pick and the latter flashing an impressive 63% coverage success rate in his limited opportunities in 2018. Otherwise, most of the Vikings' best players are in their late 20s or early 30s, which is good for their playoff chances in 2019 but bad for their under-25 ranking.
29. Tennessee Titans
2018 ranking: 11
Blue-chip players: Corey Davis, WR
Notable graduated players: Jack Conklin, RT; Marcus Mariota, QB; Derrick Henry, RB
Marcus Mariota's fourth year as a starter in 2018 was a critical one to establish his long-term value. And although his completion percentage spiked to 68.9%, Mariota offset that with shorter passes to land at the same 7.6 yards per attempt he had in two of his three previous seasons. His lack of growth would have sabotaged the Titans' former top-12 under-25 ranking even if Mariota hadn't aged out by the end of last season.
I'm willing to give the No. 5 pick from the 2017 draft, wide receiver Corey Davis, the benefit of the doubt as a blue-chip player in part because of Mariota's poor play. Davis fell short of 900 receiving yards in 2018 in a run-focused offense, but he did add 104 DYAR. Fellow 2017 first-rounder Adoree' Jackson is the best the team can offer the under-25 rankings on the other side of the ball, but he was only moderately productive with a 43% success rate in coverage and is a frequent target of opposing quarterbacks.
The Titans gambled with a pair of trade-ups that left them with just four picks in the 2018 draft, and the early returns were not great, as all three of Rashaan Evans, Harold Landry, and Dane Cruikshank dealt with early-season injuries that derailed their chances of productive rookie seasons. They hope to have better luck with their top picks from 2019, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and wide receiver A.J. Brown. They don't have many other reasons for optimism.
30. Seattle Seahawks
2018 ranking: 31
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Germain Ifedi, RT; Kache Palacio, LB
With the offseason departure of free-agent safety Earl Thomas, the Seahawks lost the final member of the Legion of Boom. Most teams would have added a handful of premium draft prospects as they hemorrhaged such an incredible collection of talent, but the Seahawks have been too good to properly rebuild. They have now won nine or more games every year since 2012.
That continued on-field success has stalled the Seahawks out in the bottom-three spots of the under-25 rankings. But the 2019 draft may have finally tipped the scales with the team adding four players in the top 100 and 11 draft picks in all. Unfortunately, the team's top pick, defensive end L.J. Collier, suffered a high-ankle sprain and he will likely miss the remainder of the preseason. Meanwhile, second-round safety Marquise Blair and receiver DK Metcalf may take a while to contribute as explosive athletes who need to develop discipline and polish.
The Seahawks did land some later-round gems the past few seasons. Seventh-round running back Chris Carson broke out in 2018, contributing 176 DYAR as a rusher and receiver and breaking 61 tackles, third most at the position. He will turn 25 about a week into the season, but the team has efficient 23-year-old sophomore back Rashaad Penny waiting in the wings. Tight end Will Dissly looked like an absolute steal in the fourth round, adding 31 DYAR on just 14 targets before a torn patella tendon landed him on injured reserve after just four weeks. Former Aussie rules football punter Michael Dickson lived up to his hype, finishing fourth at the position in gross punt value and earning first-team All Pro honors.
No one would confuse 24-year-old cornerbacks Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin and free safety Tedric Thompson with the Legion. Flowers was the best of that group with an uninspiring 47% coverage success rate, but they are unusually battle-tested for their ages, coming off a combined 45 starts in 2018. And nose tackle Poona Ford quickly earned his roster spot as an undrafted free agent thanks to a tremendous preseason. He is a strong run-stopper who made 17 tackles as a rotational lineman in the final five weeks of 2018.
31. New England Patriots
2018 ranking: 32
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Malcom Brown, DT; Elandon Roberts, LB, Deatrich Wise, DE
The Patriots tend to perpetually live at the bottom of these rankings, and their sixth Super Bowl win and ninth appearance of the Tom Brady era in 2018 illustrate how much they care about that fact. The team let their 2015 first-round pick, 25-year-old defensive tackle Malcom Brown, walk at the end of his rookie deal. They lost their first-round picks in 2016 and 2017, the former because of Deflategate and the latter because of a trade for receiver Brandin Cooks, whom they traded away just one year later. But even though the Patriots jumped just one team in the under-25 rankings since their last-place finish in 2018, they have gotten the wheels turning for the rebuild they may need should Brady ever decline or retire.
That second Cooks trade netted the team a replacement first-round pick in the 2018 draft, and the Patriots shocked the world by actually using their picks on Georgia teammates Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel and their 2019 first-round pick on Arizona State receiver N'Keal Harry. Wynn tore his Achilles tendon last preseason and missed the entire year, but Michel proved to be the team's favorite and most productive rusher. They will hope for a similar quick impact from Harry because the Patriots lost veterans Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson and (probably) Josh Gordon from their passing attack this offseason.
The Patriots did end up with two extra Day 2 picks in 2019 thanks to a pair of 2018 draft trades. Though neither player will start his career as an apparent blue-chip player, the Patriots have turned a number of late-round picks into quality starters in recent seasons, thanks in large part to their volume of chances. Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley and cornerback J.C. Jackson look poised to join that company in 2019. Bentley flashed unexpected coverage skills with his promised run-stopping in three games as a rookie, and may start at Mike linebacker over Roberts this year. And Jackson allowed just 5.8 yards per target, second on the team behind star corner Stephon Gilmore.
32. Philadelphia Eagles
2018 ranking: 24
Blue-chip players: None
Notable graduated players: Ronald Darby, CB; Jalen Mills, CB
The Eagles haven't enjoyed the sustained success of the Patriots over the past two decades, but they land in the No. 32 spot in the under-25 rankings for the same reason the Patriots land one spot earlier. The Eagles have accumulated one of the deepest and most talented rosters in football, but nearly all of that talent is over 25 years old. Carson Wentz remains one of the most appealing franchise quarterbacks in the game, but he aged out of the under-25 rankings last year. Every starter at wide receiver and defensive back is 26 or older. And perhaps the team's best unit, its offensive line, has an average age of 31 years old.
Things could easily change for the Eagles this time next year if their three picks from the top 60 of the 2019 draft -- offensive tackle Andre Dillard, running back Miles Sanders, and wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside -- are productive. But the Eagles are clearly more interested in competing with what's left of their Super Bowl roster than entering a full rebuild. They only made two more picks in the 2019 draft, and they hope one of them -- quarterback Clayton Thorson -- never has to start for them.
The Eagles injected a bit of young talent by trading a future sixth-round pick for running back Jordan Howard, who will still be 24 years old when he kicks off the 2019 season. But Howard finished below the replacement level as both a runner and receiver last year. The rookie Sanders is a better bet to emerge as a blue-chip player in the future. 2018 second-rounder Dallas Goedert was efficient with 38 DYAR on 44 targets, but will likely play second fiddle to Zach Ertz for his full rookie deal. Defensive end Derek Barnett was trending up in his sophomore season of 2018 before a torn rotator cuff cost him the final 10 games of the year. Fourth-rounder Josh Sweat may have a higher ceiling if his impressive SackSEER rating manifests as NFL production. And cornerback Avonte Maddox turned in an impressive 61% coverage success rate in part-time work in his rookie year.
Methodology
As is our standard, we have created these rankings based on a combination of factors:
Number of starts made by players under 25 years old
Number of snaps played by players under 25 years old
Quality of play of players under 25 years old, with age adjusted to capture the fact that a 21-year-old player of X ability will likely improve more than a 23-year-old player of X ability and with extra consideration given to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections
Relative importance of positions, in particular with quarterback being more important and running back, kicker, and punter being less important than other positions
Draft value added in the 2019 draft, with extra emphasis placed on the premium picks in the first two rounds
Expected key starters and reserves under 25 years old for teams in 2019
Team track records of talent evaluation and development
Significant injuries or suspensions that will affect the 2019 availability of players under 25 years old
Stats to know
The rankings frequently reference Football Outsiders statistics that may be unfamiliar to you. Here are definitions of the most frequently cited ones:
DVOA: Defense-adjusted Yards Over Average, a metric of team or player rate of success per play accounting for play context
DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, a metric of player performance adjusted for the context of his attempts; commonly referred to as yards above replacement
Adjusted line yards: A measure of run-blocking weighted by the success of carries, their game situations, and their quality of opponents
Adjusted sack rate: A measure of pass-blocking that includes sacks and intentional grounding penalties
Run stops: Preventions of successful run plays as defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down
Run defeats: Preventions of rushing for first-down yardage on third or fourth down, rushing tackles behind the line of scrimmage, or forced turnovers of the ball carrier
Hurries: Instances of a pass-rusher forcing a quarterback to throw the ball before he is ready
Coverage success rate: Percentage of pass plays on which a defender prevents a successful offensive play, either through incompletion, interception or a failure to gain 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down
Gross punt value: Estimate of points gained or lost on punts over average, assuming average returns
Gross kickoff value: Estimate of points gained or lost on kickoffs over average, assuming average returns
Snap-weighted age: The average age of a team weighted by the number of plays each player was on the field
Adjusted games lost: Measurement of the cost of injuries, both in terms of missed games and games where players were not able to play to their full potential
Statistics based on game charting like hurries and coverage success are possible thanks to the collective efforts of ESPN Stats & Information and Sports Info Solutions.