Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players who have barely played. Eighty percent of the draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, and 10 percent is about the players who should have been first-round picks, but instead went in the second round.
This list is about the others.
Everybody knows that Quinnen Williams and Nick Bosa are good. There's a cottage industry around the idea of hyping every draft's No. 1 quarterback as a potential superstar. But players don't stop being promising just because they don't make waves in their rookie seasons. This is a list of players who have a strong chance to make an impact in the NFL -- either this season or beyond -- despite their lack of draft stock and the fact that they weren't immediate NFL starters. (Our full criteria for who's eligible for this list is at the bottom of this article.)
Previous instances of the list have hyped players such as Geno Atkins, Grady Jarrett, David Johnson, Tyreek Hill and Jamaal Charles before they blew up. Last year's list included Kenny Golladay, Aaron Jones, Larry Ogunjobi, and Chris Godwin.
Most of these lists are heavily dependent on the depth of incoming draft classes. For instance, this year's list doesn't have many wide receivers, because most of the players either played right away or didn't have the requisite talent. Last year's list was packed with wideouts. This year is heavier on the beef, after a 2018 draft class that was quite strong on the defensive line.
(Ages are as of July 23, 2019.)
1. Lorenzo Carter, OLB, New York Giants
Age: 23 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 442
When the Giants snagged Carter in the third round, they were making a bet on tools over production. Carter's 4.50 40-yard dash and explosive results in the vertical- and broad-jump metrics made him someone who fit the NFL mold of a top edge rusher. His results at Georgia? Not so good. Carter had just 14 sacks despite serious playing time in all four seasons with the Bulldogs. Our SackSEER projection system took the middle ground, projecting him for 18.3 sacks in his first five seasons on the basis of the athleticism.
Carter's early returns have been pretty good: four sacks and 16 hurries. He saw a boost in snap counts late in the season as the Giants were playing out the string, after he was mostly used behind Kareem Martin and Connor Barwin. He has been drawing hype all offseason from Giants reporters and coaches and seems zeroed-in on a breakout season.
Carter has a very safe floor compared to a lot of this list. Even if he's never an edge-rushing force, he has coverage skills and uncommon athleticism that will keep him in the NFL. If his physical profile wins out, you can expect production along the lines of another Georgia product: Bears edge rusher Leonard Floyd.
2. Da'Shawn Hand, DL, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Draft: Fourth-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 455
Hand was the consensus No. 1 recruit in his class coming out of high school in 2014 but didn't live up to expectations at Alabama. He had great technique and strength, but he never became the kind of force you'd expect from his tools. Hand paired that résumé with a subpar combine in which he ran a self-destructive 7.98-second 3-cone drill. He fell all the way to the fourth round. The one saving grace was his 34⅜-inch arm length; some NFL teams measure pass-rushers by how much distance they can gain with their arms.
Despite the subpar college career, Hand has become a force for the Lions. He had 14 hurries as a rookie to go along with three sacks and six defeats. (Defeats are defined here.) He played sterling run defense as well. Sometimes pro-level coaching and training can take an underachieving college player and raise him to the next level. Now Hand gets to line up next to Trey Flowers and Damon Harrison for a full season and enjoy the fruits of their labor.
A PFWA all-rookie team selection, Hand sprained his MCL late in the season and that's the only reason he's still eligible for this list. Hand is going to grip-and-rip past Lions opponents for a long time.
3. Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans
Age: 22 | Draft: Fourth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 267
Texas Tech's speedy wideout wasn't deeply appreciated by the "talk to the scouts" crew, who tend to disregard production coming out of lower-profile Air Raid schools. Coutee was also dinged at the NFL combine, where he had subpar showings across the board -- aside from his 4.43 40-yard dash time -- and where he measured in at 5-foot-9, 181 pounds.
So it was certainly notable that the Texans still believed he was worth taking in the fourth round. Coutee, who dealt with hamstring troubles all season, caught 11 balls in his first game in Week 4. He has the speed to threaten the deep post from the slot, but hasn't been utilized like that yet in Houston. When the Texans tried last year, he was a step out of sync with Deshaun Watson.
Coutee's seasonal upside depends mainly on Will Fuller V's health, but Coutee has the potential to be one of the best slot receivers in the NFL for the next three years. He can win short, he can win deep, and he has the ability when healthy to break tackles in space. All he needs is the opportunity.
4. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 414
Andrews took a lot of flak from NFL teams and the draft community for an inability to block in college, but he has been pretty solid as a pass-blocker for the Ravens when needed. He won't win the line of scrimmage as a running-game player too often, but he has the size to be an obstacle.
What Andrews brings is the ability to be a big part of a passing offense at tight end. He had 958 receiving yards in his junior season and was a core reason Oklahoma's opponents couldn't really handle the offense. If they keyed on the pass offense, Andrews was blocking a small college corner. If they keyed on the run offense, Andrews was a physical mismatch.
When Lamar Jackson took over as the starter, Andrews became the Ravens' primary downfield threat. He finished second among all tight ends in receiving DVOA and had the fourth-highest average depth of target. The 6-5 frame should give him a chance to remain a mismatch for safeties.
5. Maurice Hurst, DT, Oakland Raiders
Age: 24 | Draft: Fifth-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 472
The easiest players to project onto this list are ones who fall in the draft for reasons they have no control over. Great player plus bad circumstance usually equals a good opportunity for draft value, which usually increases the odds that a player lands here.
Hurst wrecked shop at Michigan, totaling 32 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks in three seasons. But alarms went off at the NFL scouting combine because of a heart condition. If your favorite team's medical staff had cleared Hurst, though, it was obvious what kind of player he was. Hurst ended the year with four sacks, six hurries and three disruptions. After so much of Oakland's draft class firebombed, and the Raiders heavily overdrafted some of their higher picks in the 2019 draft, he's probably the brightest ray of light left in the box.
Hurst fits another one of the classic undervalued draft archetypes: the smaller defensive tackle who creates havoc inside, yet falls because NFL scouts don't take him seriously because of his size. The patron saint of that category is Aaron Donald, who didn't go in the top 10 despite being the best player in the 2014 draft. We think the Raiders would be very happy if Hurst followed in the more reasonable footsteps of Geno Atkins or Grady Jarrett.
6. Jaylen Samuels, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 23 | Draft: Fifth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 228
North Carolina State's Swiss Army knife went to Pittsburgh and immediately showed off his speed and skill in the receiving game. Samuels came out of NC State as half-running back, half-tight end. However, the athleticism out of this 225-pound package kind of screams "could be a three-down back" to us.
Samuels posted a 36.4% receiving DVOA out of the backfield in his first season, and while that was inflated by a 90% catch rate, Samuels also broke 11 tackles in just 82 touches.
Coming into the year behind James Conner, Samuels will probably be the primary passing-down back. It's possible he never grows beyond that, and plays a Danny Woodhead-esque role. But Samuels is also stout enough and has the moves behind the line of scrimmage to play his way into a bigger role. There aren't many running backs who play all three downs in today's NFL, but Samuels' ceiling might look something like David Johnson, and he gives the Steelers a lot of extra flexibility in theory, given his ability to play tight end.
7. Josh Sweat, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 22 | Draft: Fourth-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 66
Sweat blew up our SackSEER system last offseason, and it's all on athleticism. He ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and had terrific scores in the vertical leap and broad jump. Thus, despite classifying him with a lower projection on the basis of his projected draft round, SackSEER still thought he was about as good as any of the pass-rushers who went after the first round (outside of Harold Landry, who should have been drafted in the first). Sweat's 14.5 sacks in three college seasons were not all that impressive, but the tools should make him play above that number.
Sweat's rookie season in Philadelphia was mostly invested in watching the fearsome veterans the Eagles have assembled kick butt and take names. The Howie Roseman Eagles have a long history of young linemen being observers early in their career, then getting up to speed quickly once given a chance.
With Michael Bennett and Chris Long departing this offseason, the Eagles roll into the year with Vinny Curry, Derek Barnett and Sweat all itching for time along with Brandon Graham. It's likely all of them will get a chunk of playing time given how the Eagles run things. Sweat has the most imposing physical profile, and comps well to Vikings star Danielle Hunter in that area. He's going to have to develop like Hunter to get playing time on this line.
8. Mason Rudolph, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 24 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 0
Rudolph threw for 13,618 yards and 92 touchdowns at Oklahoma State, giving him plenty of clout with scouts as a potential first-round pick. Instead, he slid to the third, where the Steelers picked him as a potential future replacement for aging quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. QBASE, our quarterback projection system, gave Rudolph a middling projection. He ate up a lot of cream-puff defenses with the Cowboys in the Big 12, and that -- combined with the third-round projection -- is why his statistics didn't translate to greatness in QBASE.
Rudolph had a somewhat uneven 2018 preseason, throwing a pick-six and completing just 54.5% of his passes. However, he did average 7.2 yards per attempt. It's easy to see why the Steelers valued him in comparing him to Roethlisberger. Rudolph has great accuracy in the vertical passing game, and he is more than willing to stand in the pocket and take shots to complete those deep balls. If he can develop short-game accuracy and better pocket awareness under pressure, he has the tools to be an NFL starter. If he stalls out, well, Zach Mettenberger had plenty of fans, too.
Rudolph earned some praise in minicamp for looking more comfortable in the offense in his second year, and he took a lot of first-team reps as Roethlisberger took it easy. This is a big offseason for Rudolph, and even the preseason games are going to matter a lot. The early returns look good, and Roethlisberger's interception rate reached a point last season where it's not totally impossible to see the Steelers ready to hand over the reins in the near future.
9. Ronnie Harrison, S, Jacksonville Jaguars
Age: 22 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 328
A massive 80¾-inch wingspan with plus speed makes Harrison a sideline-to-sideline player. He got on the field as a sophomore at Alabama, which is no small feat, and showed versatility and skill. He's most notable for bringing the hammer; he's an impact tackler who can disrupt receivers and runners to create turnovers.
Harrison took over the starting safety role from Barry Church in December after the latter was released. Harrison is capable of playing either deep safety or in the box, but projects better in the box as a run stuffer. The Jaguars have mostly committed to big nickel as a base defense, making Harrison a potential fit like Mark Barron or Patrick Chung in that role. Despite drawing acclaim from most draftniks, Harrison's rookie year man-coverage play was poor, which could limit his ceiling if he doesn't develop that part of his game further.
Minicamp reports were quite promising about Harrison's speed and body development, and defensive coordinator Todd Wash was happy with his work. If Harrison puts it all together, his ceiling is a role along the lines of what Landon Collins did for the Giants on his rookie contract.
10. Ja'Whaun Bentley, LB, New England Patriots
Age: 22 | Draft: Fifth-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 138
A surprise starter at the beginning of last season as a fifth-round pick, Bentley tore his biceps and went on IR after Week 3, but he'd already begun to show promise in that small sample size. He picked off Matthew Stafford and provided three quarterback pressures over the three games. And, of course, Bentley came into the NFL billed as one of the top run-stuff linebackers in the draft and did a solid job at that.
Bentley ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at his Purdue pro day -- he wasn't invited to the combine -- at 246 pounds. But it was pretty much unanimous among draft analysts that he wasn't going to be a three-down linebacker at the next level; even the ones who complimented Bentley's zone coverage believed that he looked stiff in the hips at times.
It's hard to completely cut through the New England offseason rhetoric, but with Jamie Collins back in town, the Patriots have enough linebackers in theory to get Bentley off the field in passing situations if that is warranted. Instead, the OTA smoke has been that Bentley may be wearing the helmet communicator and that he was getting snaps over Elandon Roberts with the starters. The intangibles are telling us a story that isn't quite supported by the draft profile, but the intangibles can sometimes speak quite loudly. We buy Bentley as a big part of the Patriots' defense this year, even if we are a little skeptical of his ceiling.
11. Martinas Rankin, OL, Houston Texans
Age: 24 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 430
Coming out of Mississippi State, Rankin drew a Justin Britt comp from NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, who believed Rankin would be an instant starter on the interior line. As a college tackle, he struggled with edge speed. But Rankin has the athleticism to be terrific on the interior and his strength will play as more of a plus tool inside.
Rankin was a disaster in his rookie year, but the context of that disaster was that he was confined to playing tackle for most of the first half of the season because of injuries and poor play from other Texans linemen. Of the 15 blown blocks that Sports Info Solutions credited to Rankin, only three of them occurred after Week 5. When Rankin rotated back into things, he was inserted at guard late in the season.
It's worth being skeptical about Rankin's performance in the near term just because the Texans haven't been very good at developing linemen under Bill O'Brien. But when put at guard late in the year, Rankin did just fine. He'll probably be able to do that again in 2019. If he improves at all, the Texans might just have a good offensive lineman in him.
12. Tracy Walker, S, Detroit Lions
Age: 24 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 267
A small-school background with Louisiana-Lafayette left outside observers and draftniks a little less sold on Walker's long-term future than the third-round pick would suggest. Most thought Walker was more of a fit in the later rounds of the draft. A 4.51 40-yard dash at the NFL combine helped get him some extra looks, and an 81½-inch wingspan didn't hurt. Walker has humongous arms.
The Lions pounced on him, and Walker started to get snaps toward the end of last season. He gave up a 34-yard wheel route to Christian McCaffrey, but he also picked off Cam Newton on a deep cross where he stole the ball from Curtis Samuel. Walker's early play was, overall, quite promising.
Most of Walker's snaps last season were as the deep safety, but he showed enough versatility that the Lions might play him closer to the line of scrimmage in 2019. It's up to how Matt Patricia wants to play things and how much he values that versatility up front. We think Walker is more valuable up front, but either way, Walker is going to be a strong starter.
13. J.C. Jackson, CB, New England Patriots
Age: 23 | Draft: Undrafted in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 395
Jackson was more than heralded by draftniks and media draft types, but his 5-9 height made him a less than ideal choice to play on the outside in the NFL. Jackson actually had the speed to play outside, running a 4.46 40-yard dash, but there were enough question marks -- including an April 2015 armed robbery arrest -- to keep him out of the draft.
Jackson did not get serious playing time for the Patriots until Week 7, but he snagged three picks and allowed just 5.8 yards per pass. He also played out wide fairly often -- he was neither a primary slot or primary wide guy. Quarterbacks completed only 7-of-20 targeting Jackson out wide, and his most impressive work was probably holding Roethlisberger to 4.8 yards per pass on 10 targets in Week 16.
Jackson was running with the ones in minicamp, though he'll get a push from Jason McCourty. It's hard to imagine him not being a starter, given the head start he has on players such as Duke Dawson, but let's pump the brakes a little on some of the articles saying could be better than Stephon Gilmore. At least until Jackson leads the NFL in success rate like Gilmore did last year.
14. Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 23 | Draft: Seventh-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 149
Jackson came into a crowded backfield situation behind Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler last season, and managed to find some snaps thanks to injuries. His college tape revealed a back who could reduce contact and make the nuanced moves that separate the good from the great NFL backs. In his first season, he broke 20 tackles in just 65 touches.
The Chargers mostly used Jackson as a receiver last season, where he had a 29.9% DVOA and caught 15 of 19 balls. That's a good result for Jackson mostly because, while he's a good runner, he wasn't exactly making contested catches and looking like a top-tier receiver in college.
The short-term limiter on Jackson is that the Chargers could tie up a ton of money in Gordon, and Ekeler is also a stellar back in a more third-down-focused role. So Jackson's playing time isn't easy to see and his draft status makes it easy for him to get lost in coaching turnover if that comes to pass. But the talent warrants a real opportunity and if he gets it, look out. For what it's worth, Chargers GM Tom Telesco took Twitter questions this offseason and specifically mentioned Jackson as someone who will have a bigger role this season.
15. Deon Cain, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Age: 22 | Draft: Sixth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 0
Here's a promising wideout who didn't get to play at all last season after tearing his ACL in the preseason, and it's a shame for him because the players the Colts had set up ahead of him on the depth chart would have been child's play for him to eclipse.
Cain ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 202 pounds; that and an explosive 6.71 3-cone drill time that told the story of his lateral agility. A failed drug test and team discipline helped contribute to his plunge to the sixth round, but Cain managed to hold steady at Clemson in his senior season despite Deshaun Watson leaving. Cain has true outside receiver talent, which is something you don't often see available in the sixth round, with the ability to play to his back shoulder and the speed to make it worthwhile. He also has great open-field vision.
We leave him this low only because receivers who don't make an impact right away sometimes have trouble taking hold of a depth chart. Parris Campbell's selection likely fills two of the three available starting slots for Colts wideouts for the time being, with T.Y. Hilton also hanging outside. All Cain has to do is beat out Panthers washout Devin Funchess to start getting real targets. But Cain stood out last summer, is getting talked up again this summer, and has the talent to contribute right away. Let's see if he gets the chance this time around.
16. Levi Wallace, CB, Buffalo Bills
Age: 24 | Draft: Undrafted in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 415
An interesting player because of his background, Wallace somehow managed to not draw enough attention to get drafted. Imagine somebody dominant at football. Now imagine that they're dominant at football on the highest stage of college football. They get invited to all-star games, play well at them, and ... nothing. That's what happened to Wallace after leading the SEC in pass breakups and interceptions at Alabama. Scouts criticized his 6-foot frame and were not thrilled with his 4.63 40-yard dash at the combine. Wallace, a former walk-on, also didn't start at Alabama until his senior season.
In his first season with the Bills, injuries put Wallace into the lineup and he performed well, breaking up three passes and allowing just 4.6 yards per pass. To be fair to scouts, they did say he'd struggle with stronger, taller NFL wideouts because of his frame. Wallace did not face many of them. His only game against top-notch competition was when Buffalo went to New England in Week 16. The best receiver he played against was Kenny Golladay, and Golladay torched him on a broken play. The rest of the schedule he defended against was full of players like Keelan Cole, Donte Moncrief and that type of receiver.
That doesn't mean that Wallace can't be an effective corner -- he showed he could be one, and his background is intriguing. But the lack of top-tier athleticism and the weak schedule could be something that indicates how well he performed was a bit of a fluke. Either way, the instincts should keep Wallace as a capable NFL player.
17. Tyrell Crosby, OT, Detroit Lions
Age: 23 | Draft: Fifth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 128
Crosby was a surprise faller in the draft process, as most draftniks assumed he would be a top-50 pick. He played with terrific strength at Oregon and showed above-average athleticism at the combine. Most comments we heard about Crosby this fall tended to be about scouts not liking his body and the way it held its weight. Fast-forward to now, and here's a player who could be a long-term starter at right tackle who was available in the fifth round. The Lions aren't complaining too much.
Crosby barely made it onto the field in his first season because of Rick Wagner and Taylor Decker at tackle. This offseason presented a different opportunity, because the release of T.J. Lang (who subsequently retired) left a gigantic hole at guard. The Lions didn't have settled depth at the position and are looking at Kenny Wiggins and Joe Dahl. That has led to questions about Crosby, and Matt Patricia stopped short of saying that Crosby wouldn't be considered at guard.
It would be an odd fit of talent, and Crosby would have to get more used to working with linemen close to his body rather than just winning with his long arms. But it might be the best way for the Lions to get their optimal starting five on the field this season. If not, Crosby still possesses starting NFL tackle talent, which isn't exactly a common trait. That's why he remains this high on the list.
18. Poona Ford, DT, Seattle Seahawks
Age: 23 | Draft: Undrafted in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 231
Ford went undrafted coming out of Texas because he's downright short for a tackle at just 5-11. However, he did come up with 20.5 tackles for loss at Texas, and he does anchor well enough to play nose tackle in the NFL, given how the standards are changing for defenses. Ford wasn't invited to the combine, but he did notch a sack of Josh Allen in the Senior Bowl.
Ford was outstanding in the preseason for the Seahawks, making the roster as a free agent and eventually kicking veteran free-agent signing Tom Johnson entirely off the team. Ford got some work with the ones as the season went on, notching 17 tackles in his last five games.
With Shamar Stephens departing in free agency, Ford would seem to be a lock for a starting spot. Like D.J. Reader a couple of years ago, Ford's upside is limited by his lack of real pass-rush moves. But his floor is so high that he belongs on this list regardless.
19. Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 24 | Draft: Undrafted in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 286
Edwards will lose his starting job to Mark Ingram, but the first season riding the Gus Bus proved that he's a great fit for the offense that Greg Roman put together. The downside of the Bus is that, no matter how hard he's working on it this offseason, Edwards is not a passing-down back and there's almost zero chance he plays on third-and-longs.
The history of running backs with great rushing DVOA in limited playing time is not exactly as high as you'd like. Lamar Miller became more of a solid back than a great one, and Evan Royster washed out of the league entirely in almost no time. That said, it's worth pointing out that Edwards had a 13.9% DVOA in 2018 that ranked ninth in the NFL, and he led the entire league in success rate.
This is a unique situation for a number of reasons: Edwards' rookie success, a scheme that probably won't be replicated in the current NFL on a grand scale ever again, and the fact that Edwards probably won't be a starter. But there's still so much statistical upside and he's such a decisive and smart runner that he belongs on this list.
20. Taron Johnson, CB, Buffalo Bills
Age: 22 | Draft: Fourth-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 405
Slot cornerback is not a position where the results have a strong year-to-year correlation. Kendall Fuller, for example, was one of the best slots in the business in 2017, and in 2018, after being a big part of the Alex Smith trade, he dropped to 47th among qualifying corners in success rate. But it's worth recognizing how great Johnson was for the Bills last season. Johnson finished with a 67% success rate on his 24 targets. He picked off Marcus Mariota and sacked Aaron Rodgers.
Johnson is a pure slot cornerback, checking in at 5-11, 192 pounds at the NFL combine. Coming out of tiny Weber State, where he starred starting as a true freshman, Johnson plays bigger than his size in the running game. He isn't afraid to get physical and in fact can often get downright grabby in coverage. There's not a lot of upside in Johnson -- he already is all that he can be -- but good slot cornerbacks are valuable in the current NFL.
Coming into this year, Johnson appears to be the favorite for slot snaps and Buffalo has only signed old or injury-prone depth at corner, so he should get a chance to demonstrate his talent again.
21. DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos
Age: 24 | Draft: Fourth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 471
With Emmanuel Sanders' torn Achilles tendon taking him out of the lineup, Hamilton finally had the slot receiver role all to himself in the final month of the season. If you split out those games, Hamilton actually had a worse receiving DVOA in that month than he did over his full season, but his December DVOA of minus-21.1% was not far removed from the team's total of minus-17.9%. Everyone was struggling.
Hamilton came out of Penn State at 6-1, 203 pounds, with a big slot body and a big slot game. He doesn't always play to that weight in strength, but he's quite nimble and able to find easy separation underneath. He dropped only one pass all season and managed to catch 65% of his targets despite most of them being from Case Keenum. He also broke zero tackles in 30 touches.
The reason Hamilton is not higher on this list is that his deep speed is nonexistent, and he's questionable even in the intermediate range. If Hamilton were a baseball player, he'd be the guy who can't hit much or run the bases but can work walks left and right. Separation is a valuable skill, and perhaps the most valuable one a receiver can have. But if it's all you have, you can't really deliver many knockout blows on your own.
22. Joseph Noteboom, OL, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 24 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 78
After Rodger Saffold left for the Titans in free agency, and the Rams let John Sullivan walk as a free agent as well, they are thin up front and are going to have to rely on some draft picks and younger players. Of those, the one with the highest pedigree is Noteboom, who will be transitioning from college tackle to NFL guard.
Noteboom moved up the board in the 2018 draft with his combine measurements. He ran a 4.96 40-yard dash at 309 pounds, and his short shuttle of 4.44 was in the 96th percentile of all offensive linemen who have performed at the combine since 2000.
The reason it didn't get him even higher than the third round is that his tape at TCU was pretty inconsistent. While he has the talent to make most blocks, he doesn't always make them. He also noticeably struggled with power. And with only 78 offensive snaps last year, we don't exactly have a large NFL sample size to rely on in projecting Noteboom's move to guard either. Noteboom is a low-floor prospect, but he has so much physical talent that he'll probably keep getting chances even if he struggles early.
23. Holton Hill, CB, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 22 | Draft: Undrafted in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 374
Hill was kicked out of Texas for violating team rules, reportedly failing several drug tests while at UT. Based on talent alone, Hill fits a lot of what the NFL wants out of its cornerbacks. He checked in at 6-1 and 198 pounds at the combine, and he has the length to develop into a terrific press cornerback. He also started for the Longhorns as a true freshman before Tom Herman came to town.
Hill got a chance to jump into the starting lineup in Week 8 with the Vikings suffering from a rash of cornerback injuries. He finished his first season with a 63% success rate in coverage and allowed the lowest yards per pass of any Viking with more than 20 targets. He did this despite playing a pretty tough quarterback slate: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson were among the quarterbacks who got into his limited reps.
Hill has been suspended for the first eight games of the season for taking a banned substance. He also doesn't exactly have a job waiting for him when he comes back, as the Vikings are deep at cornerback. But his highs are so high that we felt he had to be on the list in spite of those facts.
24. Jordan Thomas, TE, Houston Texans
Age: 22 | Draft: Sixth-round pick in 2018
Offensive snaps in 2018: 470
Of the two Jordan tight end prospects the Texans have, we'd rate Jordan Akins as the one with the better ceiling, even though Thomas is ahead on the depth chart. Akins has the talent to be a true No. 1 stretch tight end, and he demonstrated more skill in the receiving game. Fortunately for Thomas, he is 22 years old instead of the 27 that disqualifies Akins from this list and, again, is ahead of Akins on the depth chart.
Thomas took over as the primary red zone tight end in the middle of the season after Ryan Griffin left the Texans wanting more out of the position. Thomas fits that role quite well as a 6-5 former wideout at Mississippi State with big hands. A lot of Thomas' big plays actually came on busted plays last season, as tight ends aren't a huge part of the Bill O'Brien offense.
Thomas ran a nice 40 at the combine, but most of his other scores as an athlete were poor. His 20-yard shuttle time of 4.75 seconds was in the first percentile of all tight ends since 2000. However, Thomas also seemed to struggle with coaching in college, and the Texans actually brought something out of him last year. He has the size to be a better blocker than he is. There's an every-down tight end somewhere in here, but Thomas still has some steps to take.
25. Nathan Shepherd, DL, New York Jets
Age: 25 | Draft: Third-round pick in 2018
Defensive snaps in 2018: 343
Shepherd was another guy who saw wide appeal throughout the draftnik community; both those who watched the tape and those who mainly talked to scouts found something to like here. A Canadian entrant from Fort Hays State, Shepherd took well to his one chance at real competition in the Senior Bowl, turning heads before breaking his hand in practice. He has an interesting backstory as well, as a 205-pound high school linebacker who had a late growth spurt.
Unfortunately for Shepherd, the safety of his role took a big hit this offseason when the Jets settled on Quinnen Williams with the No. 3 overall pick. Steve McLendon and Henry Anderson both return as well, leaving the team with five competent interior defenders to go in three spots.
Shepherd had nine hurries and five quarterback hits despite having to win time on a stacked line. A best-case scenario for Shepherd could be following in the footsteps of a similarly sized interior player who was on the list last offseason: Browns defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. Of course, to follow in those footsteps, Shepherd has to actually get on the field.
Honorable mentions
Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Houston Texans
Trey Hendrickson, DE, New Orleans Saints
Jamarco Jones, OT, Seattle Seahawks
Josey Jewell, LB, Denver Broncos
Harrison Phillips, DT, Buffalo Bills
Will Richardson, OT, Jacksonville Jaguars
Deadrin Senat, DT, Atlanta Falcons
Vincent Taylor, DT, Miami Dolphins
Kenny Young, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Methodology
This is the 13th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there wouldn't be offensive linemen on it) and it's about career potential, not just the 2019 season.
Here's our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2016 and 2018
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps)
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger in 2019
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about DVOA and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats, including quarterback hurries and blown blocks, come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2019.