Our panel of ESPN NFL experts is looking ahead over the next two weeks, identifying teams and players poised to dominate in the future, as we lead up to the unveiling of our new Future Power Rankings. Our panel will answer a question every day.
The topics our panel has hit so far (click the links to see the answers):
2018 was defined by the league's offensive explosion. What will be the story of the 2019 season?
We're starting a PPR fantasy league for 2022. Who's your prediction to be the No. 1 overall pick?
Patrick Mahomes won an MVP in his first season as a starter. How many will he win for his career?
The NFL changes quickly. Who will be the league's best defender in 2022?
Which rookie would you plant your flag on being a future star?
What's the storyline everyone will be talking about in July 2020?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: The continued dominance of the quick passing game in the NFL, and how it will impact roster construction during the offseason. Expect more of an emphasis to be put on quarterbacks who can throw from multiple platforms, O-linemen with athleticism to play in space and wide receivers with catch-and-run ability.
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: The future of the Saints. Following the retirement of reigning Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees, New Orleans' status as one of the league's premier teams and offenses could change drastically. The pressure will be on Sean Payton to win without the future Hall of Famer, and probable replacement Teddy Bridgewater will have to show that he's a capable NFL starter.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Rookie quarterbacks, of course. All the attention will be on Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm and others as they begin preparation for their first training camps in ... I don't know ... let's say Miami, Tennessee and Cincinnati, to pick three spots.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: The Patrick Mahomes megadeal. Though the Chiefs could wait until 2021, before Mahomes' fifth season, to sign their star quarterback to a long-term extension, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to get something done next summer. I also won't be surprised if it's an absolutely jaw-dropping figure -- our Adam Schefter reported earlier this year that it could reach $200 million -- as I expect Mahomes to continue thriving.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior writer: The Patrick Mahomes contract. If Kansas City decides to lock up Mahomes early, will he become the first NFL player to break the $200 million threshold?
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: By July 2020, the NFL and its fans will be debating the imminent future of replay review. The 2019 expansion, which now includes pass interference calls and no-calls, is for one season only. If there are no major gaffes, the expansion will be permanent and will possibly expand further. It could also be scrapped and returned to pre-2019 levels. In other words, we'll be wringing our hands about more replay -- or the fear of a repeat of the 2018 NFC Championship Game.
2018 was defined by the league's offensive explosion. 2019 will be the Year of _______.
Bowen: Kyler Murray. I can't wait to watch the rookie in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. Sure, Murray will go through some growing pains in his first pro season. Kingsbury, too. But the upside here? It's Murray's electric dual-threat ability in an up-tempo offense. The Cards are going to play fast, and I anticipate Murray posting some impressive numbers as a rook.
Clay: The return to Earth. It starts with offense, which was through the roof in 2018 and figures to level off or dip this season. That especially applies to the Chiefs (more on that here) and Seahawks, who broke logic with super-efficient and unsustainable 2018 campaigns. We should also expect bounce-backs from perennial contenders Green Bay and Pittsburgh, who disappointed last season but are still among the league's better teams on paper.
Graziano: The pass-catching running back. Christian McCaffrey set a league record for running backs with 107 catches last season and was one of four backs who caught more than 80 passes. I say someone breaks that record in 2019, whether it's McCaffrey again, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson ... someone. And the number of backs catching more than 80 passes a year continues to go up.
Kimes: The play-action pass. My interest was piqued recently when I read a quote from Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, who mentioned that the team's analytics staff was pushing the offense to use play-action more often because of its efficacy. The three teams that ran play-action passes the most in 2018 were the Rams, Patriots and Chiefs; more offensive coordinators around the league will try to replicate their success.
Reid: Kyler Murray. Will there be some bumps along the way? Sure. Despite his talent, Murray will be tested. With rookies, that's the way it works. But Murray should absolutely thrive in the Cardinals' up-tempo offense. By the end of the year, we'll be saying, "That was fun."
Seifert: Quarterback reckoning. The NFL will have at least two starters who, just a few years ago, would have been considered ill-equipped for the job. Kyler Murray in Arizona and a full year of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore will show us whether the NFL can transition to passers who find unique ways to get it done. We'll also begin the long process of moving away from an aging base of future Hall of Famers. Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are all approaching free agency.
Who will be the No. 1 fantasy draft pick in 2022?
Bowen: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. Barkley racked up more than 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns with 91 pass receptions as a rookie. Monster numbers. We know he is going to see the high-volume touches again this season in the Giants' offense, and the home run ability is there, too. He's going to create explosive plays.
Clay: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. Barkley paced all running backs in fantasy points as a rookie, and there's no reason to believe he won't be utilized as a workhorse back over the next few seasons. Entering 2022, Barkley will still be in his prime at age 25, which is why he's currently the best asset available in dynasty leagues.
Graziano: A college running back. Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin, maybe? Barkley is the easy answer at this point, and he'll probably be the consensus No. 1 pick this year. But running back shelf lives are what they are, and there's no way to know who's going to be hot at that position in three years.
Kimes: A college running back. Barkley will be 25 then, which is still younger than the age when the average back peaks, but his usage rate (and the overall direction of the Giants' offense) is concerning.
Reid: A college running back. Although Barkley would seem to make sense, 2022 is a long way away. Just too many unknowns, along with the fact that running backs take such a beating.
Seifert: A player currently in college, the 2022 equivalent of what Barkley will be in 2019. By the time the 2022 season hits, Barkley will have played four seasons at presumably brutal workload levels. He won't be cooked, but his best years will be behind him -- opening the fantasy door for a player who will be drafted in 2021 and blow up his rookie year.
Over or under 2.5 career MVPs for Patrick Mahomes?
Bowen: Over. When I watch Mahomes, it reminds me of playing with Brett Favre in Green Bay. Rare talent, stuff you can't teach. And with Andy Reid running the show in Kansas City, Mahomes plays in a system that really maximizes his game. He could put up numbers for a long time.
Clay: Under. Mahomes is incredibly good -- 23 years old and entering his third NFL season -- but the fact is only five players have won the MVP more than twice (Tom Brady, Johnny Unitas, Peyton Manning, Jim Brown, Brett Favre). Mahomes might have the best odds of getting there among current players, but it's still an incredibly high bar to reach.
Graziano: Under. Call me a grouch, but I'm relying on history here. An "over" puts him at three or more MVP awards, which only five players have accomplished. Could he do it? Sure. Does he have the talent to do it? No question. But so much goes into this. What kind of team will the Chiefs continue to put around him? Will voters get bored with giving it to the same guy so many times? Drew Brees hasn't won the thing once. More goes into this than just, "The guy is amazing." Plus, he could have a Hall of Fame career and 2018 could turn out to be the best season of it.
Kimes: Under. I think Mahomes is a special player with Hall of Fame potential, but winning three MVP awards requires a rare combination of health, luck and teammates who can thrive alongside you.
Reid: Over. Apparently, most of my colleagues and friends on this panel are big grouches. I'm all-in on Mahomes. We're at the outset of something very special.
Seifert: Under. Only nine players have won more than one MVP. Mahomes could have a Hall of Fame career and still fall short of the three total MVPs he would need to make good on this bet, especially given the proclivities of voters and the unknown nature of his future competitors for the award.
Let's predict three years from now. Who will be the NFL's best defender in 2022?
Bowen: Derwin James, S, Chargers. In just one season, we've seen James find the ball at all three levels of the field. This is an impact defender. And the physicality jumps out on film. I love that in the secondary. James is a playmaker with the athletic versatility and modern-day traits to fill multiple roles in any scheme.
Clay: Darius Leonard, LB, Colts. Leonard was a machine as a rookie, racking up 163 tackles, 7 sacks and 2 interceptions. The 2018 second-round pick is already playing outstanding ball. Considering he doesn't turn 24 until later this month, perhaps we haven't seen his best work. Leonard figures to be the anchor of a much-improved Colts defense for a long time.
Graziano: Joey Bosa, DE, Chargers. I went with Bosa on my answer about the league's best under-25 player, so let's go ahead and project some better health luck over the next three years and say it'll be him.
Kimes: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. The Browns' former No. 1 pick has shown that he can excel in run defense and has racked up impressive pass-rushing statistics despite being double-teamed at times. I expect the additions along Cleveland's defensive line will free him up for even greater destruction over the next few years.
Reid: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. Browns personnel rave about his motor and freakish physical ability. Those qualities, plus the drive to be the best, form a perfect combination. Also, the Browns signed defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson in free agency and traded for edge rusher Olivier Vernon. Both additions will help accelerate the process of Garrett reaching the top.
Seifert: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. He already has 20.5 sacks in 27 career games and will be only 26 years old in 2022. As he continues to learn veteran techniques and offensive linemen continue to regress because of condensed developmental time, there is every reason to project elevated dominance from the best young pass-rusher in the game.
Which rookie would you plant your flag on being a star for five-plus years?
Bowen: Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets. Game-wrecking talent on the interior of the defensive line -- that's what I see on Williams' college film. The traits are there for the Alabama product to quickly develop as a disruptive force -- with pass-rush upside -- at defensive tackle.
Clay: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. It's hard to imagine Murray failing. On one hand, he was an elite passer at Oklahoma, as indicated by his FBS-record 11.6 yards per attempt in 2018. On the other hand, he's an elite rusher, running for a ridiculous 1,001 yards while averaging 7.2 yards per carry last season. Yes, Murray is undersized, but his absurd combination of efficiency and production as both a passer and rusher makes him a perfect fit for the modern NFL.
Graziano: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Why not? No one has the star potential Murray has, with his multidimensional talents entering the league at a time when it's all set up for quarterbacks to be superstars.
Kimes: Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets. New York was fortunate to snag Williams at No. 3. In many other drafts, he would've gone first overall. The Alabama lineman's ability to generate a pass rush from the inside is tremendously valuable in today's NFL, and he should contribute immediately as a rookie.
Reid: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Obviously, the tools are all there. And he has been playing on the biggest stages at every level of the game. The moment won't be too big for him. In five-plus years, we'll look back and praise the Cardinals for getting it right.
Seifert: Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers. Pre-draft discussion about his political leanings masked what is largely a perfect football résumé. His ability to change a game via the pass rush or run defense will make him a star in a big market.
Throw out Patrick Mahomes, a human cheat code. Who's the NFL's best player under the age of 25?
Bowen: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns. Garrett already has racked up 20.5 sacks and four forced fumbles in his first two seasons. The film is pretty freaky, too. With that monster 6-foot-4, 272-pound frame, the 23-year-old is developing a deep toolbox of countermoves to go with his natural power, speed and flexibility. Watch out -- he can be a star in this league.
Clay: Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans. How about the guy whose ridiculously impressive 2018 season was overshadowed by Mahomes? The 23-year-old Clemson product has thrown 45 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in 23 NFL games, adding 820 yards and 7 scores as a rusher. While playing all but two of Houston's offensive snaps last season, Watson averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt (sixth best) and completed 68 percent of his passes (eighth best) despite an 8.6 average depth of throw (11th highest). Watson is already one of the league's best.
Graziano: Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers. Bosa, turning 24 on Thursday, has 28.5 sacks in 35 career games. Now, the fact that those 35 games are spread over three years points out that Bosa's not on the field as much as we like our under-25 studs to be, but when he is on the field, he's one of the game's most fearsome pass-rushers.
Kimes: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. For me, this was a toss-up between Garrett and Joey Bosa. I gave the Browns pass-rusher a slight edge because of his relatively better health (though his rookie season was also shortened by injury) and his untapped potential. Garrett compiled not only 13.5 sacks last season but also 29 quarterback hits, suggesting he isn't due to regress in 2019.
Reid: Myles Garrett, DE, Browns. I went back and forth on this one for a minute, because Joey Bosa is an off-the-charts beast as well. But there's that adage about a player's availability being the best part of his ability. Bosa just isn't on the field enough to be considered the best -- not with Garrett also in the league. In only 27 career games (25 starts), Garrett has 20.5 career sacks, 4 forced fumbles and -- get this -- 47 quarterback hits. And it's not all about Garrett's power and speed, though he has both in abundance. This young fella works at his craft. When a player has 47 quarterback hits through his first two seasons, he also knows a little something about hand placement, leverage and overall technique.
Seifert: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys. Only three players in NFL history have amassed more yards from scrimmage (5,247) before their 24th birthdays. One is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Barry Sanders) and the other two should be (Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James). Be it as a runner or receiver, Elliott produces at a Hall of Fame level even when opponents know what's coming. At his age, he could maintain a historic pace -- which he established despite losing six games to suspension in 2017 -- for at least a couple of more years.