The 2018 season felt like a breakout for the Kansas City Chiefs, an odd thing to say about a franchise that had won at least nine games in each of the previous five seasons.
Of course, there's no denying that Andy Reid & Co. took their game to a new level. The Chiefs finished the regular season 12-4 and won a playoff game for only the second time in the past 25 seasons. The Kansas City offense ranked first in the NFL in both points scored and yardage, the first time they've accomplished that combination (they did it in the AFL in 1966), and Patrick Mahomes won the league MVP in his first season as an NFL starter.
Despite the recent string of success, however, there are a few reasons to be concerned about the Chiefs taking a step back in 2019 and perhaps even missing the playoffs for only the second time since Reid took over as coach in 2013.
Regression is inevitable
If nothing else, impending offensive regression to the mean is a near-undefeated force the Chiefs will need to overcome.
Consider the Chiefs' 2018 offensive explosion, which was responsible for a majority of the team's success. They averaged a whopping 35.31 points, 425.6 yards per game and 6.84 yards per play, all of which were tops in the league. They finished in the top five in first downs per game (24.0), third-down conversion rate (47.2 percent), red zone efficiency (71.8 percent) and scoring margin (plus-144).
The Chiefs' offense totaled 66 touchdowns, which league history tells us is unsustainable. Each of the five offenses that scored 58-plus touchdowns in a single season from 2009 to 2017 suffered a large drop-off the next season. The average dip was 15.8 scores, or nearly one full touchdown per game. Those offenses were led by a who's who of the league's best passers in Peyton Manning (2013 Denver Broncos), Aaron Rodgers (2011 Green Bay Packers), Drew Brees (2011 New Orleans Saints), Tom Brady (2012 New England Patriots) and Matt Ryan (2016 Atlanta Falcons).
Even more incredible, of the 30 offenses that scored 50-plus touchdowns in a season over the past decade, only three increased their total the next season. All three were Patriots teams (2011, 2012, 2016). The average drop of everyone else was 13.3 touchdowns. Again, nearly one per game.
History suggests that the Chiefs will still rank near the top of the NFL in scoring but won't come close to their historic 2018 production. As we'll get to later, that could be a big problem.
The regression will likely hit Mahomes, too.
If we look at the 20 highest single-season passing yardage totals from 2007 to 2017, we get an average of 5,024 yards. Excluding Brady's injury-shortened 2008 season (11 pass attempts), the other quarterbacks averaged 4,489 yards the next season, and only one of the 19 increased his yardage total (2016 Brees). When we focus on the eight quarterbacks who, like Mahomes, reached 5,000 passing yards, we encounter a similar dynamic. Although four attempted more passes the following season, all eight saw a drop in yardage, with an average dip of 413.5 yards.
A review of touchdown passes shows something similar. Thirty quarterbacks threw 34-plus touchdowns in a single season from 2007 to 2017. Only three increased their total the following season (2012-13 Manning from 37 to 55, 2010-11 Brady from 36 to 39, 2017-18 Russell Wilson from 34 to 35). Again, excluding 2008 Brady, the average dip was 10.4 TD passes.
Mahomes is in a unique club, being one of three quarterbacks to throw 50-plus touchdowns in a season (2013 Manning -- 55, 2007 Brady -- 50). But Brees is the only quarterback in NFL history who has reached 40 touchdown passes in a season more than once (46 in 2011 and 43 in 2012). Therefore, every quarterback in NFL history who had 40 or more touchdown passes in a season threw for fewer the following season.
The common retort to this commentary is something along the lines of "well, the league has never seen anything like Patrick Mahomes." That is true, to an extent. Mahomes had one start under his belt prior to shredding the league for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns during his age-23 season.
Of course, some said the same about Matthew Stafford following his breakout 2011 campaign. Stafford had only 13 starts prior to exploding for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in his age-23 season. This was also eight years ago, when offenses weren't nearly as productive or pass-heavy as they are today. Stafford appeared to be a superstar in the making, and though he has settled in as a solid quarterback, he has gone seven consecutive seasons without reaching 5,000 yards and has reached 30 touchdown passes only once since.
It's also easy to point to Mahomes' terrific production in efficiency categories, but here is some perspective on each:
Mahomes averaged 13.3 yards per completion: Each of the previous 15 quarterbacks who reached 13.2 YPC saw a dip the following season, with an average drop of 1.5 yards per completion.
Mahomes averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt: Each of the previous 15 quarterbacks who reached 8.37 YPA saw a dip the following season, with an average drop of 1.2 yards per attempt.
Mahomes threw a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his pass attempts: Each of the previous 15 quarterbacks who were 7.0 percent or better saw a dip the following season, with an average drop of 2.4 percentage points (again excluding 2008 Brady).
This section was a long way of saying that -- regardless of coaching, personnel, schedule and everything else I'll dive into in the rest of this story -- history suggests it's a near certainty that the statistical production of the Chiefs' offense and, in turn, Mahomes will drop (perhaps significantly) in 2019. And that could happen while Mahomes is still playing at an All-Pro level.
The offensive personnel is worse
Star running back Kareem Hunt was cut during the 2018 season after video surfaced of him shoving and kicking a woman. Though the raw counting stats were similar, Kansas City backs averaged 4.61 yards per carry (ninth in the NFL) -- including 2.52 yards after contact per attempt (second) and 10.1 yards per target (first) -- during Hunt's 11 games. Those marks dropped to 4.59 YPC (12th), 1.58 YAC (28th) and 7.89 YPT (third) once Spencer Ware and Damien Williams took the bulk of the touches down the stretch.
Ware is gone, replaced by Carlos Hyde. Hyde has flashed potential at times since being drafted in 2014 but has struggled to 3.7 YPC and 1.88 YAC over the past two seasons. He will join Williams and rookie Darwin Thompson to lead the Chiefs' backfield in 2019. This is one of the lowest-rated running back rooms in the league.
Louis Riddick speaks on the Chiefs' transition to new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the key addition of Tyrann Mathieu.
Mitch Morse, one of the league's top centers, left via free agency, which is notable considering Mahomes was pressured on a league-high 30 percent of his dropbacks last season. Pro Football Focus graded Morse as an above-average center during the three seasons in which he played 11 or more games.
The elephant in the room is the status of Tyreek Hill, who has been barred indefinitely from all team activities after audio surfaced in which the star wide receiver's fiancée accused him of abusing their 3-year-old son. He seems like a near lock for a suspension (at minimum) to begin the 2019 season.
Hill has been one of the NFL's most explosive players since entering the league in 2016, scoring 29 offensive touchdowns and adding five more as a returner. Over the past two seasons, Hill was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (2,662) and receiving touchdowns (19), while his 11.0 yards per target was tops in the league among players with at least 600 receiving yards. Losing Hill for a significant stretch would leave Mahomes to rely on oft-injured Sammy Watkins, rookie Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson (who has 500 receiving yards in three NFL seasons) at wide receiver.
Reliable No. 2 tight end Demetrius Harris and depth WR Chris Conley were lost via free agency.
The defense hasn't improved much ... if at all
Kansas City's historic 2018 offensive season was not only impressive, it was absolutely necessary in helping the Chiefs win 13 games (including playoffs). Why? Well, that offense offset some very bad defense.
The Chiefs' defense allowed 3.1 touchdowns per game (sixth-worst), 405.5 yards per game (second-worst), 5.85 yards per play (ninth-worst), 26.2 first downs per game (worst) and a 72.4 percent red zone conversion rate (second-worst).
On the positive side, Kansas City ranked first in both forced fumbles and sacks, but here's where that gets tricky: Justin Houston (released) and Dee Ford (traded) were responsible for 13 of the team's 23 forced fumbles and 25 of the 55 sacks. That is a massive share.
Acquiring Frank Clark (14.0 sacks, three forced fumbles last season with the Seattle Seahawks) will help offset some of that loss, but combined with the likes of Breeland Speaks, Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah (8.5 sacks, 1 FF combined last season), the Chiefs have lost more than they gained.
Safety Eric Berry also was let go, though he barely played last season and was replaced by the productive Tyrann Mathieu.
Solid cornerback Steven Nelson, along with Orlando Scandrick and Eric Murray, were lost in the secondary and replaced by journeymen Bashaud Breeland and Keith Reaser and second-round rookie Juan Thornhill.
The Chiefs have a few stars (Chris Jones, Clark) and good players (Kendall Fuller, Mathieu) on defense. But there is a significant number of weak spots behind them, most notably linebacker, where No. 1 option Anthony Hitchens had 2018's worst PFF grade among 89 off-ball linebackers who played at least 300 snaps. The team did trade for Darron Lee, though the Jets castoff isn't a lock for significant snaps with Hitchens, Reggie Ragland and Dorian O'Daniel also in the mix.
This was one of the league's worst defenses in 2018 and that figures to be the case again in 2019.
The schedule is grueling
Based on my metrics, which evaluate a schedule based on current rosters (not the previous season's won-loss records), the Chiefs will face the ninth-hardest slate in 2019. Additionally, the Kansas City offense will face the league's toughest slate of defenses.
Incredibly, 12 of the Chiefs' 16 games will be against defenses projected to be better than average. Their toughest showdowns will come against the Bears, Vikings and Jaguars, and they'll also face the Chargers (twice), Broncos (twice), Titans, Texans, Colts, Patriots and Ravens. Their other four games are against the Raiders (twice), Lions and Packers, who all project to be better defensively in 2019 than they were last season.
By the way, the Chargers (who also had a 12-4 record last season) are undoubtedly the Chiefs' biggest threat in the AFC West this season. The Chargers and Chiefs have common opponents in 14 of 16 games, but Kansas City's unique matchups are Baltimore and New England, which is tougher than Los Angeles' unique opponents, Pittsburgh and Miami. That could prove to be the difference in what figures to be a tight divisional race.
The Chargers are better
The Chiefs might have won the tiebreaker, but the Chargers matched Kansas City's win total and allowed 84 fewer points last season. Los Angeles had a relatively nondescript offseason but made some key additions at need positions, including linebacker Thomas Davis, first-round defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and second-round safety Nasir Adderley.
Unlike in 2018, stud edge rusher Joey Bosa will be healthy to begin the season, as will tight end Hunter Henry, who missed the entire 2018 season with a torn ACL. Offensive line is the obvious potential Achilles' heel, but the Chargers' offense is otherwise in terrific shape and the defense is one of the league's best on paper.
It's hard to make an objective case that the Chiefs are the better overall team and, once the schedule comes into play, it makes sense to expect a changing of the guard at the top of the division.
Though the Chargers are the Chiefs' top AFC West competition, the other two teams could be tricky too. The Broncos have a good defense, and the Raiders are much improved (albeit still with plenty of holes) from 2018.
Final thoughts
Despite all of the roadblocks I laid out, I still think the odds favor the Chiefs slipping into the playoffs as a wild card. There are two reasons for this: Reid and Mahomes. As noted earlier, Kansas City hasn't fallen below nine wins under Reid and has made the playoffs five times during his six seasons with the team. Reid is one of the league's best coaches and Mahomes will be a major difference-maker, even if he regresses.
Will I be shocked if the Chiefs miss the playoffs? No. But at the end of the day, I have them projected for 9.6 wins and second place in the AFC West, which will set up a trip to Cleveland to face the Browns in the wild-card round of the playoffs.