Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move always helps, by dramatically improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise. Football Outsiders is suggesting a bold move for each team. Some of these are more realistic than others, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
Some might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here.
Moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams.
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NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills: Make a play for A.J. Green
Thanks to an overhauled offense, quarterback Josh Allen was able to take a step forward in his second pro season and begin to look more like a legitimate NFL starter. Newly acquired wide receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley went a long way for Allen, proving to be massive improvements over the fringe NFL talents the Bills rolled out in 2018.
That said, considering Brown is primarily a deep threat and Beasley does not provide much beyond the 10-yard mark, the Bills could still use a true No. 1 wide receiver to fill in the gaps for their high-end role players. Buffalo's $80-plus million in salary-cap space should be more than enough to pay Green.
The concern with Green, 31, is how healthy he will be after missing the entire 2019 season with a severe ankle injury. Even a 90% version of Green is a legit No. 1 receiver who can do a little bit of everything, though.
Green has the size and body control to box out defensive backs to make acrobatic catches while being every bit as fluid and nuanced as the best route runners in the league. Precious few receivers in recent history move as smoothly as Green -- at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds -- does for a player his size. In turn, Green can be that reliable, "always open" presence for Allen to rely on.
Miami Dolphins: Overpay for Joe Thuney and/or Brandon Scherff
It is almost a guarantee that the Dolphins are taking a quarterback with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. Whether that ends up being southpaw star Tua Tagovailoa or the toolsy Justin Herbert, Miami must make it a priority to revamp its offensive line to protect what it hopes will be its franchise quarterback.
Unfortunately, the tackle market is uninspiring beyond Tennessee Titans right tackle Jack Conklin. The guard market, however, has a couple of good-to-great starters available, and the Dolphins' $93 million in cap space should be plenty to sway at least one of them to South Beach.
Washington guard Scherff is the potential home run swing. Though injuries have hampered his playing time over the past few seasons, Scherff has still managed to be one of the best interior linemen in the league when healthy. His blend of power and surprising athletic ability in space (he is a former tackle, after all) gives him all the tools to take over the trenches.
A less attractive, potentially safer option is New England Patriots guard Thuney. Since entering the league in 2016, Thuney has steadily progressed each and every year, eventually playing his way onto the Associated Press' All-Pro second team. Thuney's consistency in getting to his man and playing penalty-free could be a good stabilizer for a Miami offensive line desperately looking for reliability.
Desmond Howard and Marcus Spears discuss whether a Patriots trade for Stefon Diggs would persuade Tom Brady to re-sign with the team.
New England Patriots: Let Devin McCourty walk; pay Justin Simmons
Free safety McCourty will be 33 by the start of the 2020 season. Even if he still might be playing at a relatively high level, this is likely the best time for the Patriots to move on before it's too late. And if the Patriots do choose not to re-sign McCourty, they'll need to fill the void at free safety. New England's recent stretch of dominant defense, starting in the 2018 playoffs, has come via a suffocating secondary, orchestrated in part by a no-fly zone over the deep middle.
Denver Broncos safety Simmons, an unrestricted free agent this offseason, is an ascending star and would be close to a household name if the Broncos had been any good recently. Not only can Simmons fill in for McCourty as a deep-middle safety for the Patriots, he can move all around the back end to provide Bill Belichick with yet another chess piece. Simmons snagged four interceptions last season in addition to 15 passes defended.
Adding Simmons' star power and versatility to a stacked cornerback group that thrives in press-man coverage could be the key to New England's defense maintaining its 2019 form. While Simmons will surely come with a hefty price tag, the Patriots should have no reservations about throwing money around, assuming quarterback Tom Brady comes back for one or two more seasons.
New York Jets: Let Robby Anderson walk; sign Emmanuel Sanders or Amari Cooper
The Jets' receiving corps needs to be rounded out. In 2019, the passing offense was feast or famine living through Anderson down the field and a handful of others taking up receptions in the quick game. As such, it would best for coach Adam Gase's milquetoast offense to function through a different, more well-rounded receiver, and for Anderson to find a team willing to shell out cash for a vertical threat.
The free-agent wide receiver class is rather thin and top-heavy, but a couple of candidates still fit into Gase's schematic modus operandi. Sanders, who was traded to the San Francisco 49ers midseason, can be an intermediate "get-open" threat for Gase's offense. With Quincy Enunwa commanding the short area as a possession player and Jamison Crowder being a lackluster speed slot, having a player like Sanders who can win skinny posts, dig routes and crossers over the middle could help add a new layer to the Jets' offense.
Likewise, Cooper would add a new, do-it-all outside threat that the team did not have last season. Cooper can be a vertical threat just the same as he can be a quick-game savant and yards-after-catch threat. His 325 DYAR ranked third in the NFL in 2019, trailing only Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin. Cooper will be the most expensive option, but he would fill more roles within the offense than any other receiver on the market.
-- Derrik Klassen
AFC NORTH
Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler break down the AFC North teams that most need to make moves in the offseason.
Baltimore Ravens: Make a play for an A-list wideout
The Ravens don't really have major holes, and they lost to the Titans in the playoffs on a small number of crucial plays, finishing minus-3 in turnovers and failing to convert two key fourth downs. But quarterback Lamar Jackson was at times unable to find open receivers against Tennessee, and one easy way to fix that would be to acquire a true No. 1 WR.
The Ravens have been in pursuit of players like this over the past couple of years but have had to settle for reclamation projects such as Willie Snead and John Brown -- solid players, not stars. Someone who can deal with the underneath game so that Marquise Brown can work deep would be preferable. The easy free agents on the list -- though we don't know tag status yet -- are Amari Cooper and A.J. Green.
But the Ravens might also find what they're looking for via trade. Odell Beckham Jr.'s pouty act might play better with an established coaching staff. With cap hell looming for the Rams, the Ravens might be able to make a play for Brandin Cooks. If the Lions are dealing Darius Slay, why not ask about Kenny Golladay? There's absolutely nothing wrong with the status quo, and Baltimore already had a historic offense last season, but if the Ravens can manage to make their passing game as terrifying as their running game, opposing defenses aren't even going to have an out.
Cincinnati Bengals: Go after Joe Thuney
The Bengals and bold moves: Name a more iconic combo.
Coming off a season in which only Trey Hopkins really displayed any level of comfortably solid play on the offensive line, the Bengals are likely going to draft a quarterback No. 1 overall to displace Andy Dalton. The return of first-round pick Jonah Williams will probably help settle things a bit, but the Bengals still need reinforcements on the line. By far the most bulletproof free agent on the offensive line this year is Thuney, someone who would replace what the Bengals had when they let Kevin Zeitler walk a few free agencies ago. Thuney is durable (64 games started in four years), dependable and smart. Per our friends at Sports Info Solutions, Thuney has blown just 14 blocks over the past two seasons and hasn't been whistled for a penalty in pass protection since 2017. The Patriots have no reason to let him walk, which means that someone is going to have to overpay him to get him to leave.
Making an actual free-agent investment does not fit very well into what we know of the Bengals. It would be a step of goodwill toward their fans. It's almost too logical of a fit to be bold -- but these are the Bengals, and any spending can qualify as bold here.
Cleveland Browns: Trade for Trent Williams
Yes, we know they already tried. But let's resurrect the idea now that Washington is under a new football administration. Cleveland tried to paper over left tackle with Greg Robinson, who was predictably not great -- but the Browns also wound up with Justin McCray starting, and Chris Hubbard had a disastrous year. You could argue that they should chase upgrades at both tackle positions.
Williams has been one of the NFL's best tackles since he entered the league in 2010. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, he blew just 34 total blocks per SIS data and committed just 11 total penalties. Last season alone, Hubbard blew 27 blocks and was called for eight penalties. Robinson added on another 15 blown blocks and 10 penalties.
Williams is old enough that the cost of trading for him should not be excessive for a front office that appears to now have a foot deep in analytics after coalescing around Paul DePodesta and Andrew Berry. Even if he somehow lost a step in pseudo-retirement, Williams would still be an excellent option to man right tackle.
Given how disappointing last season was for the Browns, we can all understand the desire to have a very safe offseason where they do the smart long-term thing over and over again. But perhaps it makes a lot more sense to go out and get one of the best tackles on the planet to protect quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Let Bud Dupree walk
The Steelers already made their bold move last season, when they sent this year's first-round draft pick to Miami for Minkah Fitzpatrick and revitalized their defense in the process. Getting Ben Roethlisberger back is (A) a fait accompli and (B) not something that the Steelers are going to try to upgrade on even if the quarterback isn't 2015 Roethlisberger anymore.
So the bold move, then, is about looking at Pittsburgh's salary-cap scenario (at just $1.5 million under the cap as of this writing, it doesn't have much room) and taking a stand on its free agents. Dupree had a monster season, but a lot of that came with better coverage than he'd seen in his first four years in the NFL. SIS tracked his hurries and pressures, and his hurry rate of 5.7% in 2019 was actually lower than it had been in any of his previous three seasons. His pressure rate of 10.1% was on par with his 10.0% in 2018 and 11.8% in 2017. The only difference was 11.5 sacks versus his usual five or six.
Dupree is going to ask for a big contract. Pittsburgh should nod and let him find it elsewhere. He's not that kind of pass-rusher.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC SOUTH
Stephen A. Smith asserts that Dak Prescott deserves to be offered a long-term contract with the Cowboys and not a franchise tag.
Indianapolis Colts: Splurge on defense
If ever a team fit the "one bold offseason could shape the franchise" thesis, this Colts team does. Without a quarterback who was a No. 1 overall draft pick for the first time this century, the Colts have become just another competent-but-unspectacular AFC South squad. Their best receiver just turned 30 during the worst season of his career for both health and productivity. Their next-best offensive player is a guard. Their best defensive player is an off-the-ball linebacker. They are solid in most spots but lack true standouts at key positions. With no obvious path to an upgrade at quarterback (no, 38-year-old Philip Rivers is not that) but the second-most available cap room per Spotrac data, Indianapolis should focus on getting the defense right.
Chris Harris Jr. is the obvious priority target for a team that ranked No. 22 or lower in pass defense DVOA against every category of wide receiver. In a deep class of pass-rushers, the Colts also have the budget to lure 2019 NFL sacks leader Shaquil Barrett from Tampa Bay, former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney from Seattle, Yannick Ngakoue from Jacksonville and/or perennial nine-sack edge rusher Mario Addison from Carolina. A rare free-agent splurge for the Colts could elevate an improving young defense into one of the very best units in the league, in turn easing the pressure on their still-developing offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trade up for Tua Tagovailoa
Cap commitments should keep the Jaguars out of contention for any premium additions in free agency, making April's draft the team's sole avenue for significant improvement. The Jaguars have shed a lot of talent since making the AFC Championship Game in 2017, but their biggest need remains the exact same now as it was then: a true starting-caliber quarterback. Injuries deprived Nick Foles of the chance to stake his claim to that position in 2019, but whatever supernatural powers Foles had in Philadelphia have thus far been negated by donning any other franchise's uniform. Sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew famously outperformed Foles, but beyond the obvious charisma and gumption, Minshew is the kind of smart, athletically limited passer everybody wants on their roster but nobody wants as their starter.
Fortunately, the Jalen Ramsey trade provided the Jaguars with the resources to take a swing at the No. 3 pick and potential stud QB Tagovailoa (or, should the Bengals spring a surprise, Joe Burrow). That would be the boldest and best opportunity to finally grab their first true franchise quarterback.
Houston Texans: Sign the best available edge rusher
The Texans have the opposite problem of the Jaguars: plenty of cap space but a severe lack of draft picks. Though not exactly a strength, Houston's offensive line is at least no longer a disaster worthy of a Tom Hanks-Gary Sinise movie, so the Texans are free to pay attention to their declining defense. The Texans ranked 28th in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric and should focus their free-agency efforts on the best available pass-rusher.
Unfortunately, the very best two available -- Shaq Barrett and Chris Jones -- have both expressed a desire to stay in their current spots. Assuming Jadeveon Clowney is also not about to return to Houston so soon after being traded away, that probably leaves Jacksonville's Yannick Ngakoue as the best available option. Signing Ngakoue, at least, would have the dual effect of weakening a division rival while strengthening the Texans: He is easily good enough to return Whitney Mercilus to his more suited ancillary role, providing a significant upgrade to a front seven that will need to become the strength of the Texans' defense once again in 2020.
Tennessee Titans: Franchise-tag Ryan Tannehill
Sometimes what is bold is also obvious. Nobody really knows what the Titans have in Tannehill. Not the team, not its fans, not media analysts, and probably not even Tannehill himself. It doesn't matter. When you get offensive production like the Titans got during the second half of last season -- third in weighted DVOA heading into the playoffs and the second-highest offensive DVOA in franchise history, with Tannehill finishing among the top five qualifying quarterbacks in individual passing DVOA -- you don't even consider replacing the quarterback. Though it is probably premature to sign Tannehill to a long-term deal, Tennessee should bet on Tannehill for at least next season, because the franchise hasn't had a quarterback produce at Tannehill's 2019 level since Warren Moon was at his peak. A repeat of that performance might be highly unlikely, but it is still the best chance the Titans have of getting above-average quarterback play in 2020. Then, if lightning does strike twice, the Titans will feel a whole lot better about a long-term commitment next offseason.
-- Andrew Potter
AFC WEST
Jeremy Fowler, Emmanuel Acho and Mike Tannenbaum discuss the possibility of the Bears signing a veteran quarterback to supplement, or possibly replace, Mitchell Trubisky.
Denver Broncos: Replace Chris Harris Jr. with Byron Jones
While Denver ranked 14th with a 1.9% pass defense DVOA in 2019, Vic Fangio's secondary is still somewhat of a work in progress -- and to make matters worse, the best two players in the unit are free agents. Justin Simmons has become one of the best safeties in the NFL, and he's only 27; he should be Denver's top priority among in-house free agents.
And then you get to Harris. Harris is one of Denver's all-time greats at this point, but he's coming off a poor season -- at least by his lofty standards. His 48% success rate in coverage was 65th in the league, and he was third from the bottom among qualifying cornerbacks with 10.7 yards allowed per pass; he averaged closer to 7.0 working out of the slot under Vance Joseph. Harris turns 31 in June and might be better suited returning to a slot position somewhere else.
The Broncos could go both younger and better-suited to an outside role by going after the biggest fish in the free-agent cornerback pond. Jones went to the Pro Bowl in 2018 and was nearly as good last season, with a 54% success rate and just 6.0 yards allowed per pass in his direction, and Dallas can't really afford to keep him. A secondary of Jones and Simmons plus the returning Bryce Callahan and Kareem Jackson would be a formidable unit for Denver in 2020.
Kansas City Chiefs: Tag and trade Chris Jones
If the Chiefs are going to turn a Super Bowl victory into a dynasty, they need to get their hands on good, young talent who will come cheap -- rookie deals, in other words. The Chiefs' roster-building has been on easy mode with Patrick Mahomes on a rookie deal. Mahomes had the 32nd-biggest cap hit among quarterbacks in 2019, but his next deal will assuredly make him the highest-paid player in football. That means the Chiefs will have to figure out how to cut corners elsewhere; they have only $16.5 million to work with before any Mahomes deal is signed.
Jones is not currently under contract for 2020, and he's looking for a big payday -- remember, he skipped most of last offseason as contract negotiations stalled. Jones is probably looking at up to $20 million a year on the open market; he's the NFL's best interior pass-rusher not named Aaron Donald and is going to get paid accordingly. If the Chiefs can't squeeze him under the cap, they need to get some value out of him. By hitting Jones with the franchise tag, the Chiefs could then trade his rights for a bevy of early-round draft picks, allowing them to restock their defense in multiple places for less than Jones would cost by himself. Possible trade partners include Indianapolis, Atlanta, Miami and Seattle. There would be plenty of interest for Jones' services.
Las Vegas Raiders: Stick with Derek Carr
A bit of a swerve here: We're advising a team to take the big, bold risk of not abandoning its current quarterback. Jon Gruden and the Raiders have been linked with every big-name free agent on the market, from Tom Brady to Philip Rivers to Ryan Tannehill, and it's no surprise why. Rich Gannon, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia -- Gruden just isn't being Gruden unless he's bringing in 30-something quarterbacks to start for his team. With a new start in a new city, you could understand why Gruden's trigger finger might be itching, particularly with a legend like Brady available.
But no, Raiders fans should get Brady out of their dreams, and get back into their Carr. Carr had a surprisingly strong season in 2019, with better advanced metrics than Brady, Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater or any other major free agent except Tannehill. His 18.9% DVOA was eighth in the league; his 62.4 QBR was 10th. He completed over 70% of his passes, with 2.4% completion rate above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats data. In many ways, Carr took steps forward in his second year under Gruden -- and that's even with the planned revamp of the receiving corps crashing and burning with the whole Antonio Brown debacle. It makes more sense to take a second crack at getting Carr some weapons, and maybe take a flier on a second-day quarterback as a safety valve, rather than betting the farm on an aging veteran for 2020.
Los Angeles Chargers: Trade up and get a rookie QB, not a veteran
Tom Brady to the Chargers? It wouldn't be the first time the franchise signed arguably the greatest quarterback of all time to finish his career in the Southern California sun. It's unlikely that the 43-year-old Brady would turn in a performance quite as bad as the 40-year-old Johnny Unitas did in 1973, but it is a reminder that when teams let a legend walk away, it's not because those players have years and years of successful football left in the tank. Signing a veteran to replace Philip Rivers would leave the Chargers in roughly the same place they were before letting Rivers walk: looking for a quarterback to lead the team into the 2020s.
The 2020 draft seems like a three-quarterback race near the top: LSU's Joe Burrow, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon's Justin Herbert, in that order. It seems very unlikely Burrow makes it past the Bengals at No. 1, or that Tagovailoa makes it past the Dolphins at No. 5, leaving Herbert to Los Angeles at No. 6 seeming like a fairly obvious grab. This wouldn't be the worst result in the world, but the Chargers shouldn't be content settling for Herbert if they don't fall in love with him. Leapfrogging the Dolphins to get their guy would come at a price, but if we've learned anything from the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, it's that if you see a guy who can lead your team into the future, you go get him regardless of the cost.
-- Bryan Knowles
NFC EAST
Mike Tannenbaum and Emmanuel Acho break down the uncertainty in Jameis Winston's future with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dallas Cowboys: Let CB Byron Jones walk and trade for CB Darius Slay
The Cowboys were a top-10 team in overall DVOA in 2019 and shouldn't let their failure to reach the playoffs last season deter them from spending for a short-term Super Bowl window. The Cowboys also have the fifth-most available cap space, and would have more space than most teams even after adding a $40 million hit for an extension for quarterback Dak Prescott.
Following that logic, the team might be in a position to make a subtle upgrade from incumbent cornerback Byron Jones (himself a free agent) to Darius Slay (rumored to be on the Lions' trade block). Jones is two years younger than Slay and edged him out in coverage success rate in 2019, 54% to 53%. But Jones is also a recent conversion from safety. Slay has hit that 53% benchmark for three consecutive seasons and is a better bet to maintain his elite performance in the future. Meanwhile, the outspoken Slay is a good personality fit for the Cowboys, and his 2021 free-agency timeline offers the team more flexibility if it underperforms again in 2020.
New York Giants: Sign WR Amari Cooper
The Giants' trio of offensive playmakers -- Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Darius Slayton -- will all be 23 years old at the start of the 2020 season. Jones might not be Patrick Mahomes, but his 53.9 QBR as a rookie is promising. And quarterbacks tend to make their biggest performance improvements between their rookie and second seasons. The Giants should spend to add talent around Jones now and make his window for rookie-contract success as long as possible.
Signing Cooper would hurt the division-rival Cowboys and reunite Cooper with the head coach for whom he had his greatest success: Former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett is now the Giants' offensive coordinator. Cooper also makes sense for the Giants' roster. Slayton surprised during his rookie season but did most of his damage on deep passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air. Cooper thrived on both intermediate (10-19 air yards, 37.2% DVOA) and deep throws (20-plus air yards, 79.8% DVOA) and would give Jones a plus weapon for every area of the field. Cooper is young for a sixth-year player, turning 26 in June. He aligns well with the Giants' likely trajectory with Jones under center and ability to cut veteran receiver Golden Tate after the 2020 season to save $6 million in cap space.
Philadelphia Eagles: Sign QB Taysom Hill and 'load manage' QB Carson Wentz
Wentz has been exceptional when he has played the past three seasons, finishing second, 13th and 11th in QBR in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. But he has missed 13 combined regular-season and playoff games in that time and played through injuries in many others. Wentz can't seem to avoid big hits, and the Eagles' improvements in offensive pressure rate and adjusted sack rate haven't helped.
The surest way to keep Wentz healthy for the playoffs is to keep him off the football field as much as possible. Philadelphia can accomplish this by signing super-utility quarterback Hill, a restricted free agent, and playing him 10 to 15 snaps per game under center. That would reduce Wentz's injury risk, ease sophomore back Miles Sanders' transition to a workhorse role, and provide Hill 200 or so snaps at quarterback to prove to future teams that he is capable of being a starter. That might be a hard sell for Hill this offseason despite his breakout divisional-round performance -- he has attempted just 15 regular-season passes in his three-year Saints career.
Washington Redskins: Draft QB Tua Tagovailoa
With the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, the Redskins are well-positioned to do two of football analytics' favorite things: draft the best overall player in pass-rusher Chase Young or trade down with a quarterback-desperate team for a bounty of draft picks. Either of those options makes a lot of sense if sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins can become a capable starter. But while it's too soon to dismiss Haskins' potential based on only 203 rookie pass attempts, his performance to date doesn't fill one with confidence. Among 2019 quarterbacks with at least 200 passes, Haskins was the worst by both QBR (26.9) and DVOA (minus-43.4%).
New vice president of player personnel Kyle Smith and coach Ron Rivera shouldn't let Haskins' sunk cost affect their decision-making. Tagovailoa is a transformative quarterback prospect. Washington could take him and then trade Haskins like last year's Cardinals did with Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen, or it could draft Tagovailoa and have him compete with Haskins for the starting job, choosing the better of the two as the Cowboys did with Troy Aikman and Steve Walsh in the early 1990s.
-- Scott Spratt
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: Sign Philip Rivers
The Bears cannot go into 2020 with Mitchell Trubisky as their only option at quarterback. While the book isn't closed on Trubisky just yet, he backslid significantly in Year 3. He struggles to read defenses pre-snap; he struggles to process coverages post-snap. He had the league's second-worst passing DVOA in the first half of games, and only barely padded his stats during second-half comebacks against prevent defenses. His 39.5 QBR was third worst in the league, and neither Kyle Allen nor Mason Rudolph behind him is considered a long-term answer. The wise move would be to bring in an experienced veteran to help during training camp, and someone Chicago could turn to if Trubisky starts off 2020 slowly again -- think Marcus Mariota or Andy Dalton.
The bold move, however, would be to bring in a future Hall of Famer to run the offense. Rivers is coming off a down year, for sure, but he was working behind an injured offensive line in front of roughly zero fans at home for all of 2019. He has bounced back from down years before, and his 6.8% DVOA in 2019 would have been the best mark for a Bears quarterback since Jay Cutler in 2015. Signing Rivers, riding out the one or two good seasons he has left, and then finding the next quarterback of the future in the next couple of drafts would be the boldest move Ryan Pace could make.
Detroit Lions: Trade Matthew Stafford to the Chargers, draft Tua Tagovailoa
The Lions went 3-12-1 last season and have finished in the bottom seven in DVOA in three of the past four years. If they want to compete right away, they can take some solace in the fact they were banged up, especially toward the end of 2019. Some improved health and the return of the very solid Stafford should help, and they could trade the No. 3 pick to a team who wants to draft Tagovailoa. Use the pick haul to add some secondary and linebacker help, and Detroit could reasonably expect better results next season.
Or the Lions could pull a Kansas City Chiefs and try to find their Patrick Mahomes. Rather than let someone else draft Tagovailoa, they could do so themselves, going all-in on the player whom most people had as the top prospect in the entire draft before the 2019 college season. They could then trade Stafford and his very reasonable contract to one of many quarterback-hungry teams; the Chargers' No. 37 pick would seem to be the floor for the value they could get in return. There is no more valuable asset in the game than a superstar quarterback on a rookie deal. There is no guarantee Tagovailoa will be that kind of player, and these moves would likely make the Lions worse in 2020 specifically, but Detroit is in position to take that risk if it feels like rolling the dice.
Green Bay Packers: Trade for Odell Beckham Jr.
Having reached the NFC Championship Game, the Packers should be all-in to compete in 2020. So it's not a bold move to suggest they part ways with expensive and replaceable parts such as Jimmy Graham or Lane Taylor, going from $22 million in cap space to $34 million; that would simply be good management. No, the question is what to do with that extra cap space.
The Packers need to have more weapons on offense. Too often in 2019, it seemed as though it was Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, with no one else to contribute. Marquez Valdes-Scantling didn't make the second-year jump; Equanimeous St. Brown was hurt the entire season. There are free-agent options at receiver available -- Amari Cooper, A.J. Green and Emmanuel Sanders, to name three. But it's possible that Beckham might be available. There were rumors all season that OBJ was not happy in Cleveland, telling opponents to "come get him" during the offseason. While Beckham has said he's fine remaining in Cleveland, and new Browns coach Kevin Stefanski has expressed the prerequisite optimism that Beckham will fit in with his system, we've seen relationships between receivers and their teams sour quickly before. If there's some fire behind the smoke, and Beckham does become available, the Packers should pull the trigger, giving Rodgers a pair of top-flight receiving options and opening up their passing game.
Minnesota Vikings: Cut Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph and let Everson Griffen walk
The Vikings are in salary-cap purgatory at the moment. Until Griffen exercised his option to void his contract last week, Minnesota had the worst cap situation in the league. Even with Griffen's massive deal currently off the books, the Vikings sit at just $736,556 in cap space, which gives them room for exactly one undrafted free agent and nobody else. There's not enough room left to sign their draft class, much less to re-sign Anthony Harris and the small regatta of cornerbacks who need new deals. To move past the divisional round in 2020, the Vikings need to improve multiple positions, but they can't even begin to attempt that until they start with some significant trimming.
Rhodes is an easy cut candidate. Although he made the Pro Bowl, Rhodes was terrible in 2019. He was the worst cornerback in the league, with a 30% success rate, per Sports Info Solutions' charting stats, and ranked near the bottom in yards per pass allowed. Cutting him saves $8 million. It will be much tougher to let Joseph go. Joseph remains a very solid run-stuffer, but he's turning 32 in a league where stopping the run is less and less significant to a team's overall success. The $10.6 million the Vikings would get by cutting or trading him could be better spent on the offensive line or in the secondary. Joseph and Rhodes would get the Vikings back into the black and give them a little bit of flexibility going forward. The Vikings could stop here, perhaps adding Riley Reiff to the list of cuts and restructuring other existing contracts if they wanted to add some extra wriggle room.
It's still not likely to be enough to re-sign both Griffen and Harris. Cutting Rhodes and Joseph gets the Vikings to $19.3 million in cap space. Per Over the Cap, roughly $3.3 million of that is going to have to go to signing their draft picks, based on their current pick allocation. Could the Vikings manage Griffen's and Harris' contracts to be worth less than $16 million combined against the cap in 2020? Yes, probably; they'd have to pay for it down the road but it's probably manageable in the short term. Could they do that while also re-signing Mackensie Alexander and Trae Waynes, not to mention upgrading the offensive line? Probably not. As good as Griffen is -- he had 40 pass pressures last season! -- he's comparatively expendable. Danielle Hunter would soften the blow of losing Griffen, and Minnesota does really like Ifeadi Odenigbo. Losing him would hurt, but it will allow the Vikings the freedom to attack their bigger weaknesses and give them a better chance of catching the Packers in the NFC North.
-- Bryan Knowles
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: Continue to draft offense
In the past three seasons, the Falcons' defense has never ranked higher than 20th in DVOA. The likely impending losses of free agent Vic Beasley and cut candidate Keanu Neal offer them even bleaker prospects for 2020. Conventional wisdom suggests the team should try to find their replacements in the draft, but the Falcons have less cap space than any other team in the NFC South and are at the tail end of their Super Bowl window with a 35-year-old Matt Ryan at quarterback. They have no choice but to enter the 2020 season with holes, and if they want to have one more chance with Ryan, then they should leave those holes on the units with the greatest year-to-year volatility, defense and special teams.
The Falcons still have blue-chip skill players on offense in Ryan and wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, but they probably will lose cut candidate Devonta Freeman and free agent Austin Hooper. Drafting a running back early, preferably one with strong receiving chops, would provide an impact rookie on the side of the ball with the surest dividend on investments. That approach would leave an underwhelming defensive roster, but the Falcons themselves reached the Super Bowl in 2016 with the 26th-ranked defense by DVOA, and the Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009 with the 17th-ranked defense by DVOA. Both teams reached those heights thanks to their excellent offenses. It would take luck, but this season's Falcons could follow that same path to success.
Carolina Panthers: Trade RB Christian McCaffrey
Panthers fans are already reeling from the retirement of star linebacker Luke Kuechly, the release of tight end Greg Olsen and the rumored impending trade of franchise quarterback Cam Newton. But if new coach Matt Rhule wants to fully commit to rebuilding the team's roster, he also should trade star running back McCaffrey.
A McCaffrey trade would be the most difficult sell to the team's fan base. He is marketable and really good, finishing second at the position in rushing DYAR (273) and first in receiving DYAR (385) in 2019. McCaffrey will just be 24 this season. He could conceivably outlast the rebuild and contribute to a competitive Panthers roster in 2021 or 2022.
The problem is that the Panthers do not have great short-term prospects for a new franchise quarterback. Incumbent options Kyle Allen and Will Grier had poor QBRs of 36.7 and 2.6, respectively, in 2019, and the team's No. 7 pick in the 2020 draft will come too late to land standout quarterback prospects Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa. The Panthers probably will be forced to be patient with their rebuild, which would waste McCaffrey's prime seasons on a last-place team. Instead, the Panthers should trade McCaffrey now, when his value is the highest it will be.
New Orleans Saints: Trade CB Marshon Lattimore
There is an expectation that the Saints will make changes to their secondary this offseason, but those expectations center on cornerback Janoris Jenkins. The Saints were up against the salary cap even before quarterback Drew Brees decided to return to New Orleans for another season, and releasing Jenkins would save the team more than $11 million of cap space. Lattimore is less than half that cap hit, but he, not Jenkins, should be the Saints' big-picture financial concern.
With two Pro Bowl selections in his three professional seasons, Lattimore has the same résumé and is in the same fourth year of his rookie contract that Jalen Ramsey was at this time last year. Lattimore might reasonably think he deserves a big contract. But unlike Ramsey, Lattimore has never justified his reputation as one of the league's premier corners. Lattimore did not crack the top 30 in yards per pass allowed or coverage success rate in either of his Pro Bowl seasons. His career-best 7.3 yards per pass allowed and 54% coverage success rate are 1.8 yards and 9% worse than Ramsey's in his best season in 2017. If Lattimore's expectations are not aligned with that reality, the Saints might be smart to preemptively trade him and avoid the distraction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sign RB Derrick Henry
The Bucs were a dreadful running team in 2019, with the 27th rushing offense by DVOA, and there wouldn't seem to be an easy fix. They could upgrade from sophomore back Ronald Jones and free-agent veteran Peyton Barber -- who underwhelmed in 2019 with 4.2 and 3.1 respective yards per carry and minus-2.7% and minus-29.7% respective rushing DVOA ratings. Henry led football with 3.3 yards after contact per attempt, based on Sportradar charting. And he shined even when his line allowed him to be hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, collecting 2.1 yards per attempt, better than a yard more than either Jones or Barber.
Henry would make Jameis Winston's life easier (assuming the Bucs retain their quarterback), and not just because of his rushing efficiency putting Winston in better down-and-distance situations. Henry was the centerpiece of a Titans offense that tied for sixth in play-action percentage. Winston enjoyed tremendous success with play-action in 2019, throwing for 3.6 more yards per attempt than on his traditional throws. With Henry, the Bucs might be convinced to ramp up their play-action usage from their bottom-three rate of 18%.
-- Scott Spratt
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals: Raid the rosters of their division rivals
The Cardinals finished 23rd in defensive DVOA and 28th in points allowed, but they have quite a few reasons for optimism on that side of the ball. The secondary should get a full season of Patrick Peterson and continued development from youngsters Byron Murphy, Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker. Linebacker Jordan Hicks finished third in the league in tackles. And of course there's Chandler Jones, second in the NFL with 19.0 sacks.
Unfortunately, when it comes to pass rush, there's only Jones. The Cardinals were in the middle of the pack with 40 sacks, but if you take the leading sacker away from every team, they fall to the bottom five. Arizona must find a bookend pass-rusher to exploit the double-teams Jones is drawing.
As it turns out, some of the top edge rushers in free agency played for Arizona's rivals in the NFC West. The Rams' Dante Fowler Jr. broke double-digit sacks for the first time last season; so did the 49ers' Arik Armstead, another first-round draft pick in 2015. The Seahawks' duo of Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekiel Ansah had only 5.5 sacks between them, but each was more productive in Houston and Detroit, respectively. All four will be available to the highest bidder; any could flourish playing across from Jones.
Los Angeles Rams: Trade Todd Gurley
Sometimes the obvious move is still a bold one. According to Spotrac data, Gurley's cap hit in 2020 will be $17.3 million, nearly $2 million more than that of any other running back. Only two other teams -- the 49ers and Jets -- have devoted that much cap space to all their running backs, let alone any one runner. This for a guy who averaged less than 60 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry last season. The Rams can't keep Gurley, because if he's on their roster on March 20 then bonuses of $7.8 million this year and $5 million in 2021 become guaranteed. And they can't cut him, because doing so would add a mind-bending sum of $25.6 million in dead money to their cap hit. So they'll have to trade him instead. That won't be a perfect solution either, as it would create $12.6 million in dead money and save the Rams only $4.7 million in cap space. But any good chemistry between Gurley and the Rams seems to have vanished, and both club and player would likely benefit from a fresh start.
Two likely candidates to take on Gurley's mammoth contract play in the state of Florida. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins are first and second in free cap space right now, and both could use Gurley's goal-line punch. Even in a down season, Gurley ran for a dozen touchdowns, twice as many as anyone on the Bucs or Dolphins.
San Francisco 49ers: Let Emmanuel Sanders walk
At first glance, the midseason trade for Sanders seems to have been a driving force behind San Francisco's run to Super Bowl LIV. The 49ers averaged 26.0 points per game before the deal, an average that climbed to 31.3 points per game (including the playoffs) with Sanders in the lineup. Advanced stats tell a different story, however -- San Francisco's pass offense DVOA was 25.1% before the trade, and virtually unchanged at 26.9% over the rest of the regular season. And Sanders was a non-factor in three playoff games, catching a total of five passes for 71 yards as Deebo Samuel blossomed into the 49ers' top wideout. Sanders turns 33 in March and figures to be among the highest-paid receivers in free agency. The 49ers don't have the cap space to invest in an aging No. 2 receiver at this point. Plus, if Sanders leaves, San Francisco should receive a good compensatory pick down the line.
For now, the 49ers would be better off with some of the veteran receivers available in the second tier of free agency, such as Breshad Perriman, Paul Richardson or Phillip Dorsett. They also have eight picks in this year's draft, a draft that is loaded with talented prospects at wide receiver. That should allow general manager John Lynch opportunity to bring a promising rookie wideout to training camp.
Seattle Seahawks: Sign anybody they want
No team that won as many games as Seattle did in 2019 has as much cash to blow in 2020. The Seahawks went 11-5 last season, and according to Spotrac data, they have nearly $60 million in cap space. There were a half-dozen other teams who won at least 11 games in 2019, but none has more than $42 million in cap space, and they average a little more than $27 million -- not even half of Seattle's cap room.
In plain English, the Seahawks are a win-now team well-positioned to make moves that will help them win now. They do have room for improvement, and there might be no player they won't be able to afford if they believe the price is fair. That includes their own top free agent, Jadeveon Clowney, but if they are outbid for his services they could always swing for Everson Griffen or Dante Fowler. On the interior, they would make sense for Damon Harrison or Michael Brockers. Seattle barely used a slot corner last season -- imagine what it could do with Chris Harris. On offense, the Seahawks have a spot at right tackle just waiting for Bryan Bulaga or Jack Conklin, and they could make room for Brandon Scherff or Joe Thuney at guard. Seattle won't land all of these players, of course, but should get enough of the right ones to make another Super Bowl push this fall.
-- Vincent Verhei