NFL free agency is approaching -- teams can start negotiating with free agents on March 16 -- and it's as deep a class as we've seen in quite a while.
That's especially the case at quarterback, where future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Philip Rivers (yeah, I said it) are up for grabs. Throw in the likes of Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston and wild cards such as Taysom Hill, and quarterback-needy teams are left with plenty of options.
One option that appears to have come off the board last week is 41-year-old Drew Brees, who said he will "make another run at it" with the New Orleans Saints in 2020.
Below is my ranking of the top 15 free-agent quarterbacks in the 2020 class. This isn't in terms of pedigree or career production but based on current value, upside and how they are projected to play next season. Considering both short-term and long-term outlook, I'll assess just how attractive each quarterback should be to potential suitors.
1. Dak Prescott
2019 team: Dallas Cowboys
Age at the start of the 2020 season: 27
Background: Prescott will not go down in history as the best (or perhaps even second or third best) quarterback on this list, but the combination of his strong 2019 campaign and the massive age gap between him and the likes of Brady and Rivers makes him the most valuable quarterback in free agency. Finally armed with a quality group of pass-catchers led by Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Prescott posted the league's fourth-best QBR (70.2), second-most passing yards (4,902) and fourth-most passing touchdowns (30) this past season.
Outlook: He may never be a consistently elite passer, but Prescott is enough of a difference-maker to warrant a generous long-term extension. Expect him to get it from Dallas.
2. Tom Brady
2019 team: New England Patriots
Age: 43
Background: It may seem preposterous that Brady isn't atop this list, but the fact is his play took a step back in 2019. Granted, his supporting cast was underwhelming at times, but Brady's offense averaged 2.6 touchdowns per game, which is the unit's lowest mark in over a decade. Brady also ranked near the bottom of the league in completion percentage (60.8%) and yards per attempt (6.6) and was 17th in QBR (53.7).
Outlook: Despite the rough 2019 campaign, we're still talking about Tom freaking Brady here. The six-time Super Bowl champ. The three-time league MVP. The GOAT. Is it possible Brady's days as a needle mover are over? Sure, but it's more likely that he still has a strong year or two left in the tank. He's on a short list of players who can quickly transform a franchise from a pretender to a contender. Of course, it will be very surprising if he doesn't return to New England.
3. Jameis Winston
Previous team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age: 26
Background: Winston is coming off a 2019 season that can best be described as "infamous." On the plus side, he led the NFL in passing yards (5,109), was second in passing touchdowns (33) and finished sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.16). On the other hand, he completed an ugly 60.7% of his passes and threw an astounding 30 interceptions (the most the league has seen in a single season since 1988). Winston's roller-coaster season ended with him 16th in total QBR, which suggests that the pluses and minuses evened out and he was essentially an average quarterback.
Outlook: The 2015 first overall pick has developed into the league's ultimate boom/bust player, with the uncanny ability to seemingly lose the game on one play but win it on the next. Winston obviously has tremendous ability, but any team that brings him on will absolutely need to find a way to cut his turnovers in half (at least). Winston's upside should be attractive to teams stuck in quarterback purgatory.
4. Ryan Tannehill
Previous team: Tennessee Titans
Age: 32
Background: I don't know what was in the water during the Adam Gase era in Miami, but Tannehill joined former teammates DeVante Parker, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams in enjoying career-best production over the past few months. Tannehill certainly showed flashes during his seven-year run with Miami, but I think it's fair to say everyone was caught off guard by his super-efficient 2019 campaign. After backing up Marcus Mariota for nearly half of the regular season, Tannehill went on to finish top-three in yards per attempt, completion percentage and passer rating, and he was ninth in QBR. The Titans' offense scored 3.7 touchdowns per game during his 13 starts, which easily would've led the league if extrapolated over the full season.
Outlook: We've been fooled before by a small sample of elite play by an average (or worse) quarterback, so we shouldn't ignore Tannehill's checkered résumé. That said, we also can't ignore Tennessee's massive uptick in production after moving from Mariota to Tannehill. The franchise tag would make a ton of sense here, as a long-term contract heavy with guarantees feels premature but would be justifiable if he proves in 2020 that this past season wasn't a fluke.
5. Philip Rivers
Previous team: Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 38
Background: Rivers is 38 and coming off a 2019 campaign so rough that the Chargers -- the team he has made every start for since taking over in 2006 -- made the quick decision to move on during the offseason. Los Angeles stumbled to a 5-11 record on the back of Rivers' 20 interceptions (the second time in three seasons he has reached that mark) and 48.6 QBR (ranked 22nd). Of course, it wasn't all bad, as Rivers completed 66.0% of his passes (10th best) and averaged 7.81 YPA (11th).
Outlook: Despite his age and disappointing 2019 campaign, there is still some reason for optimism here. Of the remaining quarterbacks on this list, none has nearly the résumé of Rivers and, in turn, the upside to lead his new team to a playoff run. Quarterback-needy teams should be interested in paying up for a one- or two-year deal.
Adam Schefter reacts to the news that Philip Rivers will enter free agency this year, officially ending his 16-year run with the Chargers.
6. Teddy Bridgewater
Previous team: New Orleans Saints
Age: 27
Background: Bridgewater posted a 5-0 record in relief of an injured Drew Brees last season, but a lot of that success can be credited to a light schedule, as well as the combination of strong defensive play and ultra-conservative playcalling. Bridgewater completed 68% of his passes (sixth best), but his 6.1 average depth of throw was easily lowest in the league.
Outlook: Bridgewater is still in his prime at age 27, but it's fair to wonder if we've already seen his ceiling. The 2014 first-round pick has settled in as a Sam Bradford/Alex Smith-like passer who relies heavily on short-range throws and turnover avoidance but who also adds the bare minimum with his legs. Bridgewater is probably one of the league's best 32 quarterbacks, but he's more of a solid game manager than he is a game changer. Most quarterback-needy teams will want to aim higher.
7. Marcus Mariota
Previous team: Tennessee Titans
Age: 26
Background: Whereas Jameis Winston (the top pick of the 2015 NFL draft) was able to play out his volatile fifth season in the pros, Mariota (the second overall pick that year) was benched after six starts during his. The former Oregon star has been effective with his legs throughout his career, but he takes a ton of sacks and has become a more conservative passer in recent seasons. Plain and simple, he did not move the needle in Tennessee, and it cost him his job.
Outlook: Mariota will look to follow the path of his replacement in Tennessee (Tannehill) and land a gig where he can either attempt to overtake a shaky incumbent in due time (Bears? Colts?) or perhaps even compete for a starting job out of the gate (Chargers? Jaguars?). Mariota is still relatively young, so hope for a resurrection remains.
8. Taysom Hill
Previous team: New Orleans Saints
Age: 30
Background: Hill is the only restricted free agent on this list, which means he is free to negotiate a contract with other teams but that the Saints will have the option to match any tentative offer he signs. Hill has been in the league only since 2017 after spending three years on an LDS mission prior to playing five seasons at BYU. He thus far has been limited to 15 career pass attempts while working primarily at wideout and tight end, but there has been some hype that a team could view him as a full-time starting quarterback.
Outlook: Hill's age, inexperience and concerning number of injuries throughout his playing career make him an extreme long shot to emerge as a quality NFL starter. That said, there's some excitement of the unknown here. If a quarterback-needy team commits to Hill and finds a way to maximize his athleticism similar to what Baltimore has done with Lamar Jackson, there's at least a small chance (that's your cue, Lloyd Christmas) he could become a competent starter. That's something that is unlikely to be the case for anyone further down this list.
9. Case Keenum
Previous team: Washington Redskins
Age: 32
Background: Keenum bounced around the league during the first five seasons of his career before his "breakout" 2017 campaign in which he led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game. Since that game, Minnesota dumped him in order to upgrade to Kirk Cousins, Denver dumped him to "upgrade" to Joe Flacco and, most recently, Washington dumped him to move on to Dwayne Haskins Jr.
Outlook: Keenum is a borderline starting-caliber NFL quarterback and the last player on this list whom teams can legitimately consider as a bridge option to a young quarterback. He should have plenty of suitors this offseason, whether it's as that bridge (Chargers?), as competition (Bears? Colts?) or simply as a strong backup (Eagles? Jets?).
10. Blake Bortles
Previous team: Los Angeles Rams
Age: 28
Background: Following an up-and-down (OK, mostly down) five seasons with the Jaguars, Bortles attempted only two passes as Jared Goff's backup in Los Angeles last season. Bortles has thrown 103 touchdowns to 75 interceptions in his career and has never completed more than 60.3% of his passes in a single season.
Outlook: Bortles is a quality option as backup quarterbacks go, but he's simply not a viable starting option. Expect him to sign a short-term extension with the Rams or another team looking for a better No. 2.
11. Chase Daniel
Previous team: Chicago Bears
Age: 33
Background: Daniel has played more than one quarter of his team's snaps in only six games during his career, which is incredible considering he has been in the league since 2009. Four of those extended outings came in relief of an injured Mitchell Trubisky during the past two seasons. He has proved to be a solid albeit unspectacular backup, tossing six touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 70% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA.
Outlook: The Bears need to upgrade from "competent backup" to "legitimate competition/upgrade" behind Trubisky this season, so it will be a surprise if Daniel isn't competing for No. 2 duties elsewhere.
12. Jeff Driskel
Previous team: Detroit Lions
Age: 27
Background: After not seeing the field during his first two-plus seasons in the league, Driskel has seen extended work in nine games over the past season and a half. It hasn't gone particularly well. The 2016 sixth-round pick has racked up 13 touchdowns and six interceptions to go along with a 59% completion rate and 6.0 YPA.
Outlook: Driskel has settled in as a competent backup, and that is where he figures to max out for the remainder of his career.
13. Brett Hundley
Previous team: Arizona Cardinals
Age: 27
Background: Green Bay threw a dart at Hundley in the fifth round of the 2015 draft but moved on after he struggled in place of an injured Aaron Rodgers during the 2017 season. He has since had stints with Seattle and, most recently, as Kyler Murray's backup in Arizona. Hundley is a terrific athlete but hasn't shown to be a particularly good passer. He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per pass attempt in 18 career appearances.
Outlook: Hundley is a logical backup option for a team with an offensive system built around a running quarterback. An extension with Arizona would certainly make a lot of sense.
14. Nate Sudfeld
Previous team: Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 26
Background: Sudfeld was expected to replace Nick Foles as Carson Wentz's backup last season, but a broken wrist landed him on injured reserve early in the season. The 2016 sixth-round pick has completed 20 of 25 passes for 156 yards (6.2 YPA) and one touchdown in his young career.
Outlook: Sudfeld could interest quarterback-needy teams looking for a cheap Hail Mary option in their quarterback battle, but a return to Philadelphia on a short-term contract figures to be the outcome. The Colts, who previously tried to sign Sudfeld, are another team to watch considering coach Frank Reich's familiarity with him from his time as the Eagles' offensive coordinator.
15. AJ McCarron
Previous team: Houston Texans
Age: 29
Background: McCarron failed to emerge as a legitimate threat to Andy Dalton after the Bengals selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft, attempting only 133 passes during his tenure. The former Alabama quarterback has attempted 54 passes during stints with the Bills, Raiders and Texans over the past two seasons.
Outlook: McCarron has hung around the league as a backup for quite a while, and that figures to continue to be the case over the next few seasons.
Other unrestricted free-agent quarterbacks: Matt Moore (KC), Colt McCoy (WAS), Josh McCown (PHI), Trevor Siemian (NYJ), Blaine Gabbert (TB), Mike Glennon (LV), Geno Smith (SEA), Sean Mannion (MIN), Chad Henne (KC), Drew Stanton (CLE), David Fales (NYJ), Joe Webb (HOU)
Other restricted free-agent quarterbacks: Cooper Rush (DAL), Nathan Peterman (LV), Brandon Allen (DEN), Matt Simms (ATL)