While the NFL universe waits on Tom Brady to crystallize his plans, teams are holding free-agent meetings to prioritize their players and identify favorites from other squads.
This free-agency class has abnormal quarterback depth, recent Pro Bowlers at every skill position, a bevy of former top-five picks and maybe the biggest test of the you-can-never-have-enough-pass-rushers adage that we've seen in a while.
The NFL's version of the Wild West is close to a month away, so we asked a bunch of personnel evaluators and execs about the players whose free agency interests them the most.
Jump ahead:
Winston | Bridgewater | Mariota
Henry | Anderson | Reader
Clowney | Conklin | Green
Jones | Simmons | Ryan
Jameis Winston
The JameisCoaster was on full tilt in 2019, thrilling one moment and inciting motion sickness the next. Winston is playing himself into the record books and out of the league at the same time. He's one of eight men on the planet to pass for 5,000 yards in a season, but his 30 interceptions were the second most in the NFL since 1980.
Multiple people around the league expect the Bucs to place a franchise or transition tag on Winston -- who would make between $24 million and $27 million in that case -- or sign him to a short-term, modest deal well below the $30-million-per-year threshold reserved for top QBs.
Even the tag numbers might be too much, one personnel evaluator says, because the Bucs will probably be betting against themselves for his services.
NFL personnel folks are legitimately torn on Winston, but one says he'll have a market because he has played a lot of football, has big-play ability and, at the least, can be a spark for an offense similar to what Ryan Tannehill has been in Tennessee.
That's if Winston gets out of Tampa.
"He knows the [Bucs] system, he showed when healthy he provides the opportunity to win games, and he's in the ideal offense for him," one personnel man said. "They are a vertical passing team, second-level-type reads. That's why you see explosive plays and aggressiveness, which lends itself to at least some turnovers. Jameis has that [Ben] Roethlisberger mentality, so if they can cut down the turnovers significantly, they can win games with him."
Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota
If most of the big-name quarterbacks stay put, the market for Bridgewater and Mariota will be strong -- more so with Bridgewater as a starter, evaluators say.
Both have starter's experience and have performed well in spurts. But where the money lands will be fascinating to the rest of the league, given the massive gap between starter money and backup money.
"It's basically below $10 million or above $20 million and not much middle ground," one NFC exec said. "The Nick Foles deal cost Jacksonville $22 million a year, and now they are stuck with him."
And Foles won a Super Bowl. These two haven't. That's why teams such as Chicago or Carolina could see both as bridge-starter options or high-level backups who can follow the Tannehill formula to success.
A source says Mariota is expected to take his time with his free-agent decision, let the quarterback carousel play out and find the right situation.
"I think both guys can still play," an NFC exec said. "I'd probably take Bridgewater based on body of work, but both should be in good shape."
Derrick Henry
It's hard to say that a player who accounted for 54% of his team's playoff offense in snap volume and yardage shouldn't be seriously paid.
Henry will want an upper-echelon contract of at least $12 million to $14 million per year, which one AFC personnel evaluator sees as a possibility because he's arguably Tennessee's best player. He's perfect for coordinator Arthur Smith's offense. Smith loves multiple tight ends, bootlegs and downhill running, which makes Henry shine.
Henry is the first player in NFL history to record more than 175 rushing yards in consecutive playoff games. No running back set a tone quite like Henry did on his way to 1,540 regular-season yards and 16 touchdowns this past season.
But then there's the running back stink that won't dissipate.
"Those deals with running backs -- Le'Veon Bell struggled in the first year [in New York], Todd Gurley II may get cut, David Johnson was benched -- none of those deals have worked out," one AFC exec said. "There's a reason why the running back market remains flat."
All three players recently signed deals between $13 million and $15 million per year, and those teams probably wouldn't sign those deals again if they had a mulligan. Maybe Ezekiel Elliott will flourish under the six-year, $90 million deal he signed with the Cowboys in August.
But as one veteran AFC scout adds, Tennessee seems committed to developing draft picks it can keep. Henry, a second-round pick in 2016, has become a franchise player. The running back tag is $12.8 million, which might be a good starting point in negotiations.
"Keep a guy who you know you're getting with such consistency," the scout said. "They know he fought through injuries and carried that team at times."
Robby Anderson
Anderson has seen it all in New York: trade rumors, bad quarterback play, hope with Sam Darnold, constant drama.
Now he's about to see a pay spike. Anderson was durable and productive in New York, averaging 55 catches for 824 yards and six touchdowns per season since 2017.
He isn't a No. 1 wide receiver, but he can be a solid complementary piece to an offense looking to stretch defenses vertically.
"It's real simple: He's fast and has size," one AFC personnel evaluator said of the 6-foot-3 Anderson. "Any team that wants speed at receiver will pay him well."
Early estimates for Anderson come in north of $8 million to $10 million per year. Several No. 2 receivers are earning $14-plus million annually, and the salary-cap spike will help Anderson cash in.
What doesn't help him: an absurdly deep receiver class in the draft. But if Amari Cooper stays in Dallas as expected, Anderson might be the most attractive under-30 receiver on the market.
D.J. Reader
This is our candidate for a sneaky-big payout.
Reader's modest production (28 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2019) isn't dissuading evaluators from placing him high on their lists of unheralded free agents awaiting millions.
Reader has become an every-down player, which isn't easy for a 347-pounder to do. He can rush the passer and stop the run. He's a Pro Football Focus favorite, with a strong 86.7 overall rating.
Reader and Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Javon Hargrave are two guys who consistently come up as free-agent defensive linemen who aren't household names but will spike the market.
"The way they talk about Reader [in Houston] on and off the field -- he'll be very attractive," one AFC evaluator said. "I hear nothing but good things as a player and person."
Houston would like to keep Reader for pass-rush help alongside J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but the Texans must pay Laremy Tunsil and others, and this late in the free-agency game, Reader's best move will be to test his worth to the 31 other teams.
Jadeveon Clowney
The former No. 1 overall pick hasn't been able to maximize his value.
After the Houston Texans franchise tagged Clowney last year, sources say the team didn't view him as a $20-million-per-year player like Kansas City did with Frank Clark. If the Texans had, they wouldn't have traded him to Seattle.
Thirteen games and three sacks later, Clowney still befuddles evaluators who know he's very good but aren't sure how good he is.
"He's more disruptive than productive," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "He's clearly one of the players you have to seriously game plan for and occasionally double-team, and players like that cost a lot of money. But he's dealt with injuries and can't seem to have that breakout year."
Clowney has missed at least one game in five of his six NFL seasons. In a 16-game slate in 2017, he recorded a career-high 9.5 sacks.
He's about to show how much QB pressures are worth.
"Pass-rushers in this class will get paid big-time," an NFC exec said. "Teams saw what Za'Darius Smith and other guys did to help their teams last year. Even if Clowney isn't perfect, he's still a headliner."
Jack Conklin
Conklin experienced a much-needed resurgence in 2019 after a stellar rookie season and a mix of poor play and injuries in Years 2 and 3.
Decent-to-good offensive linemen get paid in free agency, and Conklin will have good footing on the tackle market, especially if Anthony Castonzo re-signs with the Indianapolis Colts or retires.
"He's back now," an AFC exec said. "Had a really strong contract year."
No team needs tackle help more than the Cleveland Browns, who in 2019 protected Baker Mayfield with journeyman Greg Robinson and former Pittsburgh swing tackle Chris Hubbard. It's time for high-pedigree reinforcements.
Cleveland has $54,572,725 in 2020 cap space. Conklin should be its first call come mid-March.
A.J. Green
Ask NFL personnel about the game's No. 1 receivers, and Green's name still consistently comes up among a short list:
Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen ... and Green, who has been great when he's in the lineup.
His 29 missed games since 2016 muddle his free-agent outlook -- but only to a point.
"He'll still do well. I think he wants out of Cincinnati," an NFC exec said. "And even 'B' receivers are getting $14 million to $15 million. I think Baltimore is a good fit for him."
Staying in the AFC North with the Ravens would allow Green to bolster Lamar Jackson's passing profile and further challenge the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC. Heck, even Pittsburgh, a notorious non-spender in March, should make a run. Ben Roethlisberger needs the help.
The New England Patriots have great respect for Green and will be selling the message to Tom Brady that they are reloading with weapons.
The problem for Green is a foot injury that's shrouded in mystery. No one has seen him on an NFL field for game action since Dec. 2, 2018, and he turns 32 in July.
But execs around the league believe he's still worth it.
"As long as the foot checks out, he's still elite," an NFC personnel evaluator said.
Chris Jones
He might be the game's most important free agent if he makes it there. The Chiefs are widely expected to place the franchise tag on Jones in the absence of a new contract.
But sources say Jones considered holding out over the summer, so there's hardly a guarantee that he'll play nice. He knows how good he is. At times, he was the best player on the field during Super Bowl LIV.
"Grady Jarrett gets $17 million a year, and this guy's better," one NFL personnel evaluator said.
Told after the Super Bowl that Jones says he wants to stay in Kansas City "forever," Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said he would love to keep Jones long-term, as well as several other players on the roster.
But Jones' massive worth on the market could complicate matters, even if there's one fundamental problem with his game -- and it's not his ability.
"About 10 plays a game, he looks like one of the best players in all of football," one NFC exec said. "The rest of the game, he'll either look OK, or he'll disappear. I'm not sure if that's a motor issue or what. It's weird."
Still, some teams believe they are one disruptive defensive tackle away from the playoffs.
Justin Simmons and Logan Ryan
Let's pair these defensive backs who will carry big weight in free agency because of versatility.
Simmons' technical position is free safety, which allowed him to roam for four interceptions and 15 pass deflections in 2019. But his size (6-foot-2, 202 pounds), good footwork and instincts help him do more.
"He fits in any scheme, really," an AFC exec said. "He's always around the ball and can help stop the run."
Last year showed a spike in the safety market, so Simmons -- a top-20 overall player, according to Pro Football Focus -- can use Tyrann Mathieu's three-year, $42 million deal and Earl Thomas' four-year, $55 million deal as starting points. He isn't as decorated as those two, but he's younger than both.
Ryan played out his three-year, $30 million deal with Tennessee at just the right time. Tennessee would like to keep him, but he'll probably cost more this time around. Ryan is basically a hybrid corner-safety-linebacker for the Titans, doing everything from rushing the passer off the edge to dropping into a zone. He's only 28, despite going into his third NFL contract.
It helps that the cornerback pool lacks major star power, and the Philadelphia Eagles must address the position. They weren't willing to give up multiple first-round picks for Jalen Ramsey, but they might pay up for Ryan in order to improve while preserving draft capital.