Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 5's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. Plus, they make a few predictions for the season.
Dive into our analysts' takes on who has been dominant, whom they're worried about and more.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 5?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Bills (+3) over Titans. I'm rolling with the Bills' defense in this one. This unit in Buffalo ranks No. 2 in overall defense, giving up an average of 280.8 yards per game. They just limited Tom Brady's squad this past week. Bills win a low-scoring matchup on the road Sunday in Tennessee.
Mike Clay, NFL writer: Steelers (+3.5) over Ravens. Since their beatdown of the lowly Dolphins in Week 1, the Ravens have barely slipped past the Cardinals at home before dropping a pair of games to the Chiefs and Browns. Baltimore's defense lost four of its top-seven snap-getters to free agency during the offseason and is without Jimmy Smith, Tavon Young and Brandon Williams. It has shown lately (nine touchdowns allowed the past two weeks) and could prove costly at Heinz Field in Week 5.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Rams (+1) over Seahawks. This feels like easy money. Sean McVay has only one two-game losing streak as a head coach, and he's 3-1 against Seattle. Coming off an inexplicable 55-40 home loss to the Bucs, the Rams get back on track against a wobbly Seahawks team that lost its most recent home game to the Teddy Bridgewater Saints.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Redskins (+15.5) over Patriots. I'll probably regret this one, but Washington won't go out like this. It has enough talent to avoid 0-5. Perhaps Colt McCoy can spark the offense for one game. Tom Brady averaged fewer than 4 yards per passing attempt at Buffalo, and though he won't replicate that performance, the Bills showed why New England misses Antonio Brown by limiting big plays.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Browns (+3.5) over 49ers. Faith restored. Many are feeling that in the Browns after a dominant, convincing win over the Ravens in Week 4. Traveling to a well-rested (coming off their bye) 49ers team won't be easy, but I believe the Browns' offensive mojo curried in Week 4 will carry over to Week 5. This strikes me as a team that will play with a better focus as the hunters instead of the hunted.
Which team has the league's best defense?
Bowen: Chicago Bears. The Patriots have the best numbers on defense through the first four weeks. But when I turn on the film, this Chicago unit is the most dominant. Speed plus game-changing playmaking ability at all three levels.
Clay: Bears. Easily last season's most dominant unit, the Bears have opened 2019 by holding the Packers to 10 points, the Broncos to 14, the Redskins to 15 and the Vikings to six. Sure, that's not exactly a list of great offenses, but Chicago has gotten the job done and remains loaded with talent on every level.
Graziano: Bears by a nose over the Patriots. They played without their middle linebacker and their best run-stuffer on Sunday and still absolutely smothered the Vikings. They held Dalvin Cook, who came in as the league's leading rusher, to 35 yards on 14 carries. They made Kirk Cousins look as if he'd rather be anywhere else. They are deep, they are fearsome, and oh yeah, they have Khalil Mack, the league's most dominant defensive game-wrecker this side of Thousand Oaks, California.
Fowler: Bears. The numbers say Patriots, but the eye test says the Bears. It's hard to get excited about New England containing the Dolphins, Jets and Bills. Chicago kept Aaron Rodgers confused, embarrassed the Redskins on Monday Night Football and forced a talented Vikings offense into one big ineffective checkdown.
Yates: New England Patriots. They rank first in the NFL in sacks (18), interceptions (10), three-and-outs forced (41), yards per play (4.09) and yards per drive (19.1) and have allowed a single touchdown. They've scored more touchdowns on defense than they have yielded. They are absolutely incredible right now. Star linebacker Kyle Van Noy likes to use the term "elite football players" when describing the group, and he's absolutely right.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Jets RB Le'Veon Bell. He has gone through a brutal matchup stretch to start the season, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry against the Bills, Browns and Patriots. In Week 5? He gets the Eagles' defense, which is allowing an average of 3.18 yards per rush to opposing backs this season (No. 3 in the NFL). Yes, you're still going to start Bell this week. I am, too, in one of my leagues, hoping for Bell to produce in the passing game. But I don't expect him to put up high-end RB1 numbers against Philly.
Clay: Redskins WR Terry McLaurin. This one hurts, considering how fun the rookie receiver has been to watch this season, but "F1" will need to be downgraded this week against the Patriots' shutdown defense. New England has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts this season, including the third-fewest to perimeter receivers and the fewest to players lined up wide to the left (which is where McLaurin has aligned on 54% of his routes). McLaurin, who missed Week 4 with a hamstring injury, has worked his way into the WR2 discussion, but he's more of a flex play and DFS fade this week.
Graziano: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. He will be by far the toughest quarterback the Cowboys have faced this season. But he might be without top receiver Davante Adams. Dallas has a strong defense at all three levels, is very tough at home and is coming off a disappointing Sunday night loss in New Orleans. I think the Cowboys make it tough on Rodgers without his top wideout and while the Green Bay offense is still putting itself together.
Fowler: Giants RB Wayne Gallman. Saquon Barkley's replacement was solid in Week 4, with 118 yards and two scores on 24 touches, but the Vikings' defense -- still one of the league's most talented -- has underachieved and knows it must rebound in New York. Minnesota will stop the run and force Daniel Jones to beat them on third-and-long.
Yates: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs. The Bears' run defense is just nasty, allowing the third-fewest yards per game and second-fewest yards per carry. Did you see what they did to Dalvin Cook in Week 4? As for his passing-game role, Jacobs has just three catches in four games, so absent more targets, it could be a quiet day.
Who's your pick for the NFL's best rookie?
Bowen: Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. I anticipate 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa to be in the mix here at the end of the season. However, after four weeks, it's Jacobs. The Raiders running back is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, with 307 yards rushing and two scores. The next step? Make an impact in the passing game. Jacobs has the traits to catch the ball out of the backfield and produce numbers as a receiving target for Oakland.
Clay: Panthers LB Brian Burns. There are quite a few good candidates, but I'll roll with Carolina's standout edge rusher. Burns has played 64% of the snaps through Week 4, accruing 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks along the way. Per ESPN Stats & Information, Burns has generated 15 pass-rush wins, which trail only that of Josh Allen among rookies.
Graziano: Burns. I'm with Clay on this one. He has been a boost to a Carolina pass rush that badly needed one. His speed jumps out at you when you watch him. He's a terror on special teams. The Panthers' first-rounder has delivered on his promise so far, and there's no reason to believe he'll slow down.
Fowler: Jacobs. He's on pace for 1,400-plus total yards, he averages 5.0 yards per carry, he breaks tackles, and he's producing 19 yards per catch, which means the Raiders need to increase his five targets through four weeks. He's a focal point for a Raiders team with hope in a wide-open AFC West behind Kansas City.
Yates: Packers safety Darnell Savage. The numbers, which include an interception, are solid, but I believe Savage's impact extends beyond them. He's an every-snap player for a very good defense whose instincts have really stood out. He looks to be the type of player who can build an umbrella over the back end of the defense and cut down on explosive passing plays allowed. He's the real deal.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 3.
Bowen: Packers WR Geronimo Allison. In Week 4 against the Eagles, Allison caught three of four targets for 54 yards, plus a red zone score. With Davante Adams expected to miss the Week 5 matchup in Dallas, Allison should see a bump in target volume. He has WR3 value this week in deeper leagues.
Clay: Jets WR Robby Anderson. Anderson has struggled to a 10-115-0 receiving line on 18 targets to begin the season, but he'll finally have the benefit of a good matchup this week. So far this season, the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to perimeter receivers (Anderson aligns on the perimeter 83% of the time). If that weren't bad enough, top-three corners Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills and Avonte Maddox are all sidelined. He'll be riskier if Sam Darnold isn't back, but Anderson needs to be upgraded.
Graziano: Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny. This is, of course, assuming that he is healthy after being inactive the past two weeks due to a hamstring injury. But the Seahawks seem to believe he will be, and after Chris Carson got 22 of the team's 25 running back carries on Sunday, I have a pesky hunch that Seattle might have been planning all along to keep Penny fresh for the short week and lean on him more than usual. The Rams have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
Fowler: Titans WR A.J. Brown. One of the most savvy receivers in the 2019 draft will eventually become Marcus Mariota's top option. Yes, Tennessee is playing the Bills, who rarely give up the big play. But Brown simply knows how to get open, and he has earned more than the 4.25 targets per game he has averaged through four weeks.
Yates: Colts QB Jacoby Brissett. He has multiple passing touchdowns in every game so far this season and faces a Chiefs team that sets up well for two reasons: The offense is so darn good that teams have to throw it a ton, and the defense continues to be a work in progress, allowing more than 400 yards per game this season.
Are you buying or selling Gardner Minshew as a legit NFL starting quarterback?
Bowen: Buying. Minshew has natural playmaking skills. We can go back to the win at Denver in Week 4 to see that. But the rookie is seeing the field and making rhythm throws in the Jags' route tree. He's on the right developmental track in Jacksonville, playing in a system that uses the running game to create more passing opportunities.
Clay: Buying. He has been terrific. He has thrown for seven touchdowns and one interception. He has completed 69% of his passes, is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and has added 82 yards with his legs. Minshew is looking like a steal in the sixth round, and assuming he keeps this up, Jacksonville will have a tough decision on its hands once Nick Foles is healthy.
Graziano: Buying. Confidence matters, and this is a guy who now knows -- if he ever doubted it -- that he can play in this league and help a team win games. I expect him to hit the bench again when Foles returns, but the time will come for him to lead his own team. When that time comes, he'll be up to the task. I don't know how you couldn't be buying at this point, unless you just don't like fun. If I woke up tomorrow morning and found out I was an NFL starting quarterback, this is the way I'd hope to play.
Fowler: Buying -- with some hesitation, given the small sample. We still don't know how he'll respond when defensive coordinators have a bigger book on him. But the Jaguars have been impressed by his poise, one of the most important traits for an NFL quarterback. He'll stand in the pocket, scan the field and throw with accuracy. That's hard to teach. Plus, teammates seem drawn to him.
Yates: Buying. Minshew has been rock-solid, playing with incredible confidence, showing improvisation skills and bringing a galvanizing energy to the huddle. Would he immediately rectify the quarterback quandary that other teams around the league are facing? Nope. Circumstances do matter. But given that he's some six months removed from being a sixth-round pick, I'm encouraged and impressed by his developmental arc.