September NFL football is always good for a few surprises, such as the undefeated San Francisco 49ers and their top-three defense, though DeForest Buckner is hardly surprised. "We've got a lot of high draft picks up front, and we're going to be physical all game long," the defensive lineman told me. "It's exciting to see."
The first quarter of the season has been exactly that -- and just as unpredictable. Good teams are underachieving, and bad teams are even worse. Despite elite quarterbacks all over the league, points are down slightly, with nine teams averaging fewer than 20 points per game compared to seven last season. It's a slow start that is possibly a byproduct of resting starters in the preseason.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have done nothing to disappoint on their way to 4-0 starts.
We asked NFL coaches, scouts and execs to break down their surprises through the first four games of the regular season. Here are the results.
The Browns' yo-yo offense
Sunday's 40-point breakthrough in Baltimore featured two-tight-end sets creating holes for Nick Chubb, who delivered with three touchdowns.
Odell Beckham Jr. totaled two catches for 20 yards.
Yep, the Browns' much-hyped offense still has plenty to figure out with its batch of talent.
"I'm not sure what the identity is," one coach said of their first few weeks. "Sometimes they want to spread it out, sometimes they want to pound the ball, which is fine if it's part of a cohesive plan. But there's been a randomness to their offense that seems hard for the players to get a rhythm on."
The Browns loaded up with splashy moves on both sides of the ball this offseason but didn't address an offensive line that has Baker Mayfield under duress at times.
The best way to inspire a line with flaws is to run the ball, coaches say, using Beckham and Jarvis Landry (who's still productive despite lacking elite speed) as the big-play options on third down. That worked in Baltimore, where the home team had just one sack of Mayfield.
"Kareem Hunt's return is really going to help them," one scout said. "Then they will have two good backs who can do a lot of different things. For all they want to do with Odell, eventually they will settle into a strong running game."
The Bills are 3-1; the Falcons are 1-3
Many evaluators would have flipped this setup in the preseason. Atlanta seemed like a sure bet for a top-10 offense with many of the same playmakers from the Super Bowl 51 team.
But the Falcons are a .500 team since they blew that 28-3 lead in Houston.
Dan Quinn fired defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel after the season, but the 2019 version was middling before Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Titans.
"Not sure Dan [Quinn] has all the answers," a defensive coach said. "They invested in the O-line, and it's still bad."
Meanwhile, the Bills just held Tom Brady to fewer than 4 yards per passing attempt and zero touchdowns. The Bills' defense is among the most disciplined in the league, rarely giving up the big play, and quarterback Josh Allen continues to dazzle but struggle with complex defenses.
"They do a good job keeping everything in front of them," one coach said. "Everything is tight."
Lamar Jackson, deadly pocket passer (for three weeks, at least)
The memory of Jackson's turnover-prone performance in the TaxSlayer Bowl two years ago is still fresh in the minds of many scouts.
"He threw four interceptions that day, and if Mississippi State could catch the ball, he might have had 12," one personnel man said. "It was that bad."
Fast-forward to 2019, and Jackson has become one of the NFL's best first-quarter stories by getting vertical. His touch passes were impressive on the way to seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 113.9 passer rating through the first three weeks.
Sure, the Ravens faced three bottom-half defenses to start, and Jackson's arm was shaky in Sunday's 40-25 loss to the Browns, as he routinely missed quick out routes. But that shouldn't discount the Ravens' 512 yards and 29 first downs per game heading into Week 4.
"He's throwing darts," that same personnel man said. "I give him credit. He's worked at it and is proving a lot of people wrong."
Last season, the Ravens' run-heavy attack didn't aid the perception that Jackson wasn't a pure pocket guy. Baltimore ran Jackson 147 times in about a half-season's work. Now, the running game is still a catalyst for Baltimore, but as defenses must respect Jackson's elite athleticism, he's using that to find the open man more often.
Baltimore's offense elicits fear for the first time in a while, one coach pointed out.
An 0-3 start for the Steelers
The 2013 Steelers had a legitimate excuse to start 0-3 while rebuilding a veteran-laden defense from scratch.
But this team features eight first-round picks playing significant roles on defense, with traditionally one of the game's best offensive lines and a head coach without a losing season in 12 tries.
Those who thought ridding the distractions of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell would help are now watching a sluggish offense try to rally behind Mason Rudolph, who enters his second start Monday against the Cincinnati Bengals.
"Blue blood organization that traditionally finds ways to win," one personnel evaluator said. "Gets rid of a problem, and it doesn't help."
What's jarring about the Steelers' sluggish start to this season is they can't do what they typically do best: run the ball and stop the run. Pittsburgh entered the week ranked 27th in rushing defense, and James Conner is averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
"Right now, the linebackers are getting washed up, and those lanes are open, which opens up everything else for offenses," one personnel man said. "Stephon Tuitt and T.J. Watt are playing really well. Cam Heyward is still solid. But they need help up the middle."
Tough start to pass interference review
With coaches able to challenge pass interference penalties or non-calls for the first time by throwing a red flag, they tested the limits in the preseason by initiating 51 reviews, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert. Six calls were reversed.
Through four weeks of the regular season, those same coaches sound exasperated with the results. Packers coach Matt LaFleur lamented that he doesn't know what pass interference is anymore after controversial calls in Thursday's loss to the Eagles. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said after Week 2 that he didn't believe "any of us have an understanding" of the replay standards, which turned safety Terrell Edmunds' pass breakup into a reversal and a 38-yard gain for Seattle.
Behind the scenes, coaches are wondering exactly what replay officials are evaluating and how they interpret "clear and obvious" evidence to change a call.
"There were some calls that I legitimately thought they would overturn based on the spirit of the change," one offensive coach said. "And then when it doesn't happen, it's like, what's the point?"
That's especially true when pass interference review opens the door for officials to detect other penalties on scoring plays.
Dolphins reaching new depths of stink each week
In a league in which jobs are on the line and the margins are relatively close each week, tanking this hard doesn't seem feasible.
This stat is numbing: The Dolphins trail 81-0 in second-half play this season.
You can't ask players to go at 75 percent. That's how they get hurt. But the collapse was on as soon as now-Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and others began requesting trades after Week 1. Bad play became infectious.
One personnel evaluator believed the Dolphins would at least be competitive most weeks.
"I thought they would be better. Usually, FitzMagic starts off hot and then tails off," the evaluator said of journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been replaced by Josh Rosen. "But he never got started. It's not like they don't have any players. This is shocking levels of bad."