We're officially one-quarter of the way through the 2019 NFL regular season, which is just enough time for us to consider that early-season fantasy surprises might have some real staying power. Therefore, we asked a panel of experts about which names are off to the most surprising starts and if they see things continuing in a positive manner.
Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Look, a lot of us were plenty optimistic about Waller during the preseason, labeling him one of the ideal late-round targets for those of us going the "cheap tight end" route. He was in a dream situation, stepping into Jared Cook's vacated role, and even his coach, Jon Gruden, termed it the "chance of a lifetime" for the fifth-year tight end. But this? Waller ranks third at the position in targets (36), first in catches (33), third in receiving yards (320) and fifth in PPR fantasy points (65.7).
What now? I don't see things changing, certainly not to the point that Waller should be regarded anything less than a weekly TE1. He has played a greater snap rate (94%) than any other skill-position player on the Raiders except Derek Carr and Tyrell Williams, gets constant looks from Carr and doesn't have a lot of truly terrifying matchups remaining on his schedule beyond the Week 6 bye.
John Ross III, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Clay: Like teammate Tyler Boyd in 2018 and Nelson Agholor before him in 2017, Ross has quickly converted from 99 percent certified bust through two seasons in the league to a third-year breakout player. Ross caught 35% of his targets and averaged 3.5 yards per target during his first two seasons, both of which ranked dead last among 328 players with at least 25 targets during the span. Ross' first year in Zac Taylor's system has been a different story, as he's already exploded for a 13-292-3 receiving line while playing 94% of the offensive snaps.
What now? Ross' usage has been boosted by A.J. Green's injury and drops remain an ongoing concern (he already has three this season), but there's no doubt the 23-year-old has taken a huge leap forward. Ross, who enters Monday Night Football as fantasy's No. 11 scoring wide receiver, will remain a weekly must-start in Cincinnati's pass-heavy offense as long as Green remains sidelined. Once the star perimeter receiver is healthy, Ross will settle in as more of a boom/bust vertical threat and more of a flex option in fantasy.
Antonio Brown, WR, unemployed
Eric Karabell: My biggest surprise is Brown being without a job. Perhaps I am naïve, but it seems to me the most talented players in the sport -- any sport -- always get second and third chances after they mess up. Brown was a Raider. Then he was briefly a Patriot. It is his own fault, but that a top-10 wide receiver is not helping any teams, or any fantasy managers, still lands in the "surprise" category for me.
What now? No, I do not think Brown is going to play again in the NFL this season, so feel free to let him go in re-draft formats, fantasy managers, but I do not think his NFL career is over, so do not move on, dynasty managers.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Matt Bowen: It's got to be Andrews, right? Considered a solid sleeper pick this summer, Andrews is producing TE1 numbers now. With at least seven targets in every game this season, Andrews has now caught 23 of 32 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns. The second-year pro is an easy mover, with the route-running traits and size to win matchups.
What now? I expect Andrews to see pretty consistent volume moving forward as he clearly has the trust of quarterback Lamar Jackson. Look for play-action throws, inside seam routes and crossers. He's a fit for the Ravens system and the numbers should add up.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Dan Graziano: I figured, low-end WR1, high-end WR2, Chargers have variety in the running game and would throw to the backs, Hunter Henry has a role and Mike Williams has a breakout. Figured the offense would feature some variety. Did not figure Allen would have 42 targets in the first three games and be the leading scorer in all of fantasy at this point. Did not see that coming.
What now? I'd expect the production to continue, though, because I don't see what choice they have. Henry is hurt again, Williams seems to be having trouble staying healthy, and while the return of Melvin Gordon helps the offense in general and their ability to lean on the backs in the passing game, Allen seems like the guy Philip Rivers trusts the most when it matters. The Chargers are always in close games. Allen's question mark used to be his health, but he hasn't missed a game since 2016. I'd buy high.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
KC Joyner: The idea of Jackson as a potential QB1 is not surprising, but that Jackson is going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes for the fantasy QB scoring lead and has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his first four games would have been hard to believe before the season.
What now? Baltimore has a large number of potential high scoring games left on its schedule, so the Ravens won't be reverting to a hyper-conservative approach on offense anytime soon. Add it up and Jackson should remain a fantasy MVP candidate for the rest of the season.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Field Yates: We knew Ekeler to be a capable back -- he has shown that in previous seasons -- but to be one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy for the first quarter of the season? That's awesome. He has averaged nearly 27 points per game in the four chances he had to be the workhorse for Los Angeles, keeping up his always useful passing game role and augmenting it with terrific rushing. He has been nothing short of a star.
What now? However, with Melvin Gordon back in the mix, this role for Ekeler feels destined to fade due to no fault of his own. Coach Anthony Lynn said Gordon will become the starter again once he's back in football shape, which could be as soon as Week 5. Hang tight with Ekeler on your roster, though, as he's a top handcuff and still a useful flex play given his exceptional talent.