Schedule strength means a lot when it comes to deciding who gets a postseason berth in the NFL. An easy schedule didn't hand Dallas a playoff spot last season, but it was a big reason the Cowboys went 10-6 despite rating as a below-average team by Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. And a difficult schedule (fourth in the league) helped keep Pittsburgh out of the playoffs, at 9-6-1. So it's important to know which teams are going to get a schedule boost in 2019.
Of course, it's tough to project schedules when we don't know how good teams will be in the future. We've done it here using our projections of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, which account for general statistical trends and specific personnel changes. These projections are a bit different from those in our book Football Outsiders Almanac 2019, still available online, because of injuries and suspensions and, most important, Andrew Luck's surprise retirement.
These schedule projections might not agree with conventional wisdom, because the Football Outsiders projections don't necessarily agree with conventional wisdom. For example, Chicago is expected to decline this season, while Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Detroit are expected to be stronger than in 2018.
Instead of simply listing the average projected DVOA of each team's 2019 opponents, we've made some small adjustments based on a couple of important situations. Opponents get a small adjustment if they are coming off a bye week, and a smaller adjustment if they are coming off a "half-bye" (Thursday night game). We've also removed home-field advantage for neutral-site games, and we've given a small penalty to teams playing on the road on Thursday nights. These adjustments don't count if both teams are coming off the same amount of rest (i.e., both playing consecutive games off the bye week).
Of course, the hardest projected schedule for this year isn't as hard as what the actual hardest schedule from last year was, because their projections are conservative. Going into a new season, no team is guaranteed to be as good as last season's best team or as bad as last season's worst team.
Here are all 32 teams, ranked in order from the hardest projected schedule to the easiest:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 3.0%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 2-5 (at Panthers on short rest, vs. Giants, at Rams, at Saints)
The Bucs are only fourth in terms of average DVOA of opponent, but they move to No. 1 in adjusted schedule strength primarily because they have only seven home games, losing their home division tilt against Carolina (Week 6) to London. They're also stuck in one of the NFL's stronger divisions, the NFC South, and they have to play against the underrated AFC South this season. If the Bucs do manage to turn things around, at least they could have a strong ending, with three of their final four games at home.
2. Denver Broncos
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 2.8%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-15 (vs. Chargers off their bye, at Texans, at Chiefs)
The Chiefs and Chargers are two of the five strongest teams in our projections, so it's natural that the other two AFC West teams will come out with difficult projected schedules. The AFC West also plays the underrated AFC South, as well as the NFC North, where we have all four teams with a mean projection above the league average. That game off the Chargers' bye could be the first game with Derwin James back in Los Angeles' defensive lineup. Beside that Chargers game, the Broncos play two early games against teams with extra rest, but those are also both home games (Bears in Week 2 and Jaguars in Week 4).
3. Chicago Bears
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 2.7%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-9 (vs. Saints, vs. Chargers, at Eagles)
The Bears have the league's toughest schedule by average projected DVOA of opponent. That's a huge change from 2018, when their schedule ranked 31st, and it's a big reason why we aren't projecting the Bears as the favorite in the NFC North this season. However, their adjusted schedule strength is a little easier because of a neutral-site London game against Oakland in Week 5. They also play only one game against a team coming off a bye or a Thursday game, and that's against the Giants in Week 12. On the other hand, the Bears get a much tougher schedule than the rest of the NFC North because we have the Saints and Rams as two of the league's top teams, far ahead of the NFC South/West opponents who will play the other NFC North squads.
It's tough to find a "hardest schedule stretch" for the Bears because their home and road games are so evenly distributed; their final 10 games alternate between home and away. Our listed "hardest stretch" is followed up with a Week 11 road game against the Rams, but there's a Week 10 home game against Detroit in the middle. The Bears also have the unique distinction of playing three different Thursday games this season: the opener against the Packers, Thanksgiving at Detroit, and the following Week (Week 14) against the Cowboys.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 2.4%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-17 (vs. Rams, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Seahawks, at Rams)
Yes, three of the games are at home, but it is decidedly not an easy December for the Cardinals. Early in the season, things set up for a surprisingly hot start, with easier opponents and four of their first six games at home. The Cardinals also play San Francisco twice in three games during a midseason period during which they have four of five games on the road.
5. Oakland Raiders
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 2.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-10 (at Packers, at Texans, vs. Lions, vs. Chargers)
Oakland played the hardest schedule in the league in 2018, so it gets a little easier in 2019. But as with Denver, a schedule with the Chiefs, Chargers and NFC North comes out as pretty difficult in our projections. It doesn't help that the Raiders lose a home game to play Chicago in London. Somehow, all of the Raiders' road games got scheduled in pairs. That neutral London game against the Bears in Week 5 is the only time the Raiders don't play either at home or on the road in consecutive weeks.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 2.1%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-14 (vs. Packers off their bye, at Ravens, at Saints with extra rest)
The 49ers were dealt the shortest straw when it comes to scheduling who gets to play with extra rest. They play two games against teams coming off bye (Carolina and Green Bay) and two teams coming off Thursday games (L.A. Rams and New Orleans), plus they have their own Thursday game on the road (Week 9 at Arizona). That moves them from 11th in average DVOA of opponent to sixth in these adjusted rankings.
7. Atlanta Falcons
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.6%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-13 (at Saints, at Panthers, vs. Bucs, vs. Saints)
Early games at Minnesota and then home against Philadelphia are the product of last season's second-place finish; three games against the AFC South follow. The Falcons somehow ended up with all their division contests coming after their Week 9 bye, including five consecutive weeks against division opponents from Week 10 to Week 14. At least that stretch with two Saints games is broken up by a home game against Tampa Bay. Both Atlanta and New Orleans will be coming off bye weeks when they play in Week 10.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.5%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-15 (at Eagles, vs. Vikings off their bye, at Rams, at Panthers)
Here's another NFC West team, as the AFC North and NFC South make for tough opposing divisions; in fact, all four NFC West teams rank in the top 10 of these schedule rankings. The Seahawks at least get the AFC North opponents off their schedule early, with all four games scheduled between Week 1 and Week 7. Seattle also has a stretch of four consecutive prime-time games from Week 10 to Week 14, two Monday nighters and two Sunday nighters.
9. Indianapolis Colts
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.5%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-3 (at Chargers, at Titans, vs. Falcons)
Indianapolis played the easiest schedule of 2018 by average DVOA of opponent, so this is going to be a distinct change. But while the Colts have hard games, they don't really have hard stretches. For example, their trip to Pittsburgh in Week 9 is sandwiched between home games against Denver and Miami. A Week 15 trip to New Orleans follows a trip to Tampa Bay. They did get a tough draw facing both the Chargers and Chiefs on the road, but perhaps they should look at that the other way: Getting Oakland and Denver at home makes a sweep of those easier opponents more likely.
10. Los Angeles Rams
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-3 (at Panthers, vs. Saints, at Browns)
Here's the final NFC West team in our top 10 hardest projected schedules. Like the Colts, the Rams' toughest games are well spread throughout the season, partly because they have consecutive road games only twice: They'll be the "home" team in London in Week 8, which is in between a road tilt in Atlanta, a bye week, then a game in Pittsburgh; and then at Dallas and at San Francisco in Weeks 15-16. The Rams play all four of their NFC South opponents in the first seven weeks, and four of the Rams' six divisional games come in December.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-16 (at Seahawks, vs. Lions, at Chargers, vs. Packers)
The Vikings play all three divisional road games in the first seven weeks -- that includes Week 2 against Green Bay, when the Packers will have extra rest after opening on Thursday night -- then all three divisional home games in the final four weeks. Like the Colts, the Vikings get both strong AFC West teams (Chiefs and Chargers) on the road.
12. Kansas City Chiefs
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 14-17 (at Patriots, vs. Broncos, at Bears, vs. Chargers)
Kansas City opens with three of four games on the road, but its only other set of consecutive games away from home includes the Mexico City game against the Chargers in Week 11. You know, assuming they can actually play on the field this time. Kansas City's schedule gets much harder in the second half of the season, and the Chiefs end with all three of their divisional home games in the month of December along with trips to the Patriots and Bears. That Patriots game, compared to the Chargers getting the Dolphins, could end up making the difference in the AFC West.
13. Green Bay Packers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.0%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-9 (vs. Lions off their bye, vs. Raiders off their bye, at Chiefs with extra rest, at Chargers).
The Packers somehow ended up playing three straight games against teams with extra rest, although home games against the Lions and Raiders aren't quite as daunting as a trip to Arrowhead Stadium. They play a fourth game against a team with extra rest when they host Chicago in Week 15. The Packers have to play both the Chiefs and Chargers on the road, and they're doing it in consecutive weeks. The Packers open with two consecutive divisional games and end with three straight NFC North games, making Week 6 against Detroit their only divisional contest between Week 3 and Week 14.
14. Houston Texans
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 1.0%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-3 (at Saints, vs. Jaguars, at Chargers)
Houston's three hardest projected games come in the first six weeks, with its schedule getting easier after midseason. And the Texans get a big benefit from where and when they play, as opposed to whom they play. Based on average DVOA of opponent, Houston would rank seventh. But the Texans get a neutral-site London game against Jacksonville in Week 9. They play only one team coming off a bye (at Indianapolis, Week 7) and no teams coming off Thursday games, plus their own Thursday game is at home (also against the Colts, Week 12) and then they get to host the Patriots with that extra half-week of rest.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 0.6%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 11-14 (at Colts, at Titans off their bye, vs. Bucs, vs. Chargers)
The Jaguars are close to the platonic ideal of an average-strength schedule. The opponents we project to be best are primarily home games, including the Chiefs, Chargers and Saints. The opponents we project to be weakest are primarily road games, such as the Raiders, Bengals and Broncos. If ever a game was set up for someone to break the NFL field-goal distance record, it's Week 4, with Jacksonville and Denver defenses likely both dominating while kickers get to enjoy the thin air of Mile High.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: 0.3%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-12 (vs. Patriots, at Bengals off their bye, vs. Texans off their bye, at Rams)
And the Ravens are sort of the opposite of the Jaguars. Their toughest out-of-division opponents tend to come on the road (Chiefs, Seahawks, Rams) and their easiest tend to come at home (Cardinals, 49ers, Jets). The exception: Week 1's trip to Miami and the Week 9 game hosting the Patriots that kicks off their hardest schedule stretch. As part of that stretch, the Ravens are one of four teams that have to play consecutive games against opponents coming off their bye weeks. (Green Bay, Miami and New England also have to do it.)
17. Tennessee Titans
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.1%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-4 (at Browns, vs. Colts, at Jaguars, at Falcons)
Here's another team that generally drew its hardest out-of-division opponents at home. The Chargers, Chiefs and Saints, all ranked among Football Outsiders' top five teams entering 2019, will all come to Nissan Stadium during the 2019 season. The Titans will have to play the hardest stretch of their schedule, with three road games, without left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is suspended for the first four games of the season. Also of note: Tennessee plays four of its six divisional games after its Week 11 bye, including Houston in two of the final three games of the season.
18. Miami Dolphins
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 2-4 (vs. Patriots, at Cowboys, vs. Chargers)
Welcome to the AFC East, where even the worst projected team has an easier-than-average projected schedule. That's because the Bills and Jets aren't forecast to be very good, either, plus all the AFC East teams get easy projected games against the bottom of the NFC East. We'll see if it's true that Miami has an advantage in the early-season humidity, because four of the Dolphins' first five games come at home. But they also have to go to cold New York and New England for three games in December. Those New York games are consecutive, Weeks 14-15, so perhaps the Dolphins will just stay in New Jersey to practice in the cold between games at MetLife Stadium.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.4%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 7-11 (at Titans, at Bears, vs. Packers, at Raiders on short rest, vs. Chiefs in Mexico)
The Chargers lose a home game to play in Mexico, but they're also one of only two teams that doesn't have to play a single opponent coming off either a bye week or a Thursday night "half-bye" week. (Detroit is the other.) The start of their schedule should be very positive, with four home games in the first six plus trips to Detroit and Miami.
20. Carolina Panthers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.6%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-12 (at Packers, vs. Falcons, at Saints)
Carolina drops from 15th in average projected DVOA of opponent to 20th in these adjusted rankings because the Panthers have only seven road games (they play Tampa Bay in London in Week 6) and only one game against an opponent with extra rest (Week 14, when they go to Atlanta and the Falcons are coming off a Thanksgiving game). Carolina ended up with both Tampa Bay games early in the season but both Atlanta and New Orleans games coming late in the season (between Week 11 and Week 17). Partly because of how that NFC South schedule is formatted, only Buffalo has a larger difference between an easier schedule strength in the first half of the season and a harder schedule strength in the second half.
21. New Orleans Saints
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.7%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 1-4 (vs. Texans, at Rams, at Seahawks, vs. Cowboys)
The Saints don't have hard stretches, they have hard pairs. Six of their seven hardest projected games are road games in pairs: at the Rams and Seahawks (Weeks 2-3); at the Jaguars and Bears, with the Bears coming off their bye week (Weeks 6-7); and at the Titans and Panthers (Weeks 16-17). New Orleans also plays Atlanta twice in a four-week period that includes the Thanksgiving night game in Week 13.
22. Washington Redskins
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.7%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-15 (at Panthers, at Packers, vs. Eagles)
Seven of the 11 easiest projected schedules belong to the AFC East and NFC East, primarily because they play each other. These two divisions combine for five teams near the bottom of the league, including our lowest projected team, the Dolphins. Some of these teams are likely to look better than they really are, because they get to play each other and someone has to win! Washington plays three of its first four games inside the NFC East, then doesn't play another NFC East opponent for 11 weeks until the Redskins finish their season with three consecutive games inside the division.
23. Cleveland Browns
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.8%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 3-6 (vs. Rams, at Ravens, at 49ers off their bye, vs. Seattle with extra rest)
Cleveland has one of the biggest schedule changes from last season, when its schedule ranked third-toughest in the league. The Browns also have by far the biggest change from the first half of the season to the second half. Only Tampa Bay has a harder schedule in Weeks 1-9 using adjusted projected DVOA of opponents, but only the Jets have an easier schedule in Weeks 10-17. Seven of Cleveland's final nine games come out as easier than average by this formula, with the exception being the two games against Pittsburgh that come in a three-week period (Week 11 in Cleveland on a Thursday night, then Week 13 in Pittsburgh).
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-0.8%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-15 (vs. Steelers, vs. Jets, at Browns, vs. Patriots)
The whole AFC North has gone from having hard schedules in 2018 to easier projected schedules in 2019, thanks to switching out the NFC South and AFC West for the NFC West and AFC East. The Bengals are no exception; they ranked second in the league in schedule strength a year ago. Cincinnati's AFC East games, including the hard one (i.e., the Patriots), are stuffed into the end of the season: December consists of home-and-home with the Browns plus three AFC East opponents. The Bengals drop from 18th in average projected DVOA of opponent to 24th in these rankings because they play only seven road games, with the eighth would-be road game coming in London against the Rams.
25. Detroit Lions
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-1.3%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 2-6 (vs. Chargers, at Eagles, vs. Chiefs, bye, at Packers)
Detroit is one of two teams (along with the Chargers) that doesn't have to play a single team coming off either a bye week or a "half-bye" Thursday game. And of course, the Lions host their own Thursday game, because it's Thanksgiving. That Thanksgiving game is part of Detroit's schedule getting easier in the second half. By our adjusted DVOA of opponent formula, only one of Detroit's final seven games (Week 14 at Minnesota) comes out projected as harder than average.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-1.4%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 10-12 (vs. Rams off their bye, at Browns on short rest, at Bengals)
I almost listed Weeks 1-3 as the Steelers' hardest schedule stretch, but that strength is mostly the opening Sunday night trip to Foxborough, Massachusetts, against the Pats. Weeks 2 and 3 are Seattle at home and a trip to San Francisco. Like the rest of the AFC North, the Steelers' schedule is going from tough in 2018 (fourth) to easier in 2019. The end of the season gets interesting because the Steelers have a lot of road games to visit what we think will be weaker teams. They end with five road games out of seven, but those games include trips to play the Bengals, Cardinals and Jets, plus the tougher division rivals Cleveland and Baltimore.
27. Dallas Cowboys
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-1.9%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 12-16 (at Patriots, vs. Bills, at Bears, vs. Rams, at Eagles)
The Cowboys don't have two home games in a row all season, but they do get two Thursday games in a row: Week 13 on Thanksgiving when they host Buffalo, and then the following week at Chicago. Their schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season, although even that is tempered by the Thanksgiving game against Buffalo and Week 17 hosting Washington. Dallas plays only one game against a team with extra rest: Week 5, when it hosts Green Bay, which will be coming off a Thursday game.
28. New York Giants
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-3.0%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 6-9 (at Patriots on short rest, vs. Cardinals, at Lions, vs. Cowboys)
This is the point where the schedules get particularly easy. All five of these schedules at the bottom of our rankings are more extreme in their weakness than any of the strongest schedules in the league. Take out Week 6 and the Giants would have the easiest schedule in the league. But oh, that's a doozy: a trip to Foxborough to play the Patriots on a Thursday night.
Some other quirks about the Giants' schedule: They play both Cowboys games in the first half of the season but both Philadelphia games in December. And they don't play two straight road games all season.
29. Buffalo Bills
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-3.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 13-16 (at Dallas on short rest, vs. Ravens, at Steelers, at Patriots)
Buffalo has the easiest schedule in the league for the first two months, then a tougher-than-average schedule in the second half of the season. Five of the Bills' final eight games are on the road, including that very difficult December stretch listed earlier. But they also have a stretch of five home games out of six between Week 3 and Week 9. Like Miami, the Bills play the Jets and Giants at MetLife Stadium in consecutive weeks, but they do it to start the season, and their commute is close enough that they don't have to stick around New Jersey for a week.
Of these teams with the easiest schedules, the Bills have the biggest change from last season, when they ranked eighth-toughest in average DVOA of opponent.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-3.2%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 4-7 (at Packers on short rest, vs. Jets off their bye, at Vikings, at Cowboys)
They might be only three spots apart in these rankings, but there's a big difference between the Eagles playing Atlanta and Seattle while the Cowboys get New Orleans and the L.A. Rams. Plus the Eagles get the Patriots at home and the Cowboys have to face them in Foxborough.
Those differences will give the Eagles a leg up on returning to the top of the NFC East. Philadelphia's schedule ends in December with four consecutive divisional games, including both contests against the Giants. Before that, the Eagles have a three-game road trip in Weeks 6-8 and then a three-game homestand (with a bye in the middle) in Weeks 9-12.
31. New York Jets
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-3.5%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 3-7 (at Patriots, bye, at Eagles with extra rest, vs. Cowboys, vs. Patriots with extra rest)
The Jets' schedule starts with Buffalo and Cleveland at home before they hit the rough patch listed earlier. Then it becomes the easiest in the league in the second half, starting with a trip to the rebuilding Dolphins in Week 9. A Thursday night game at Baltimore in Week 15 looms as difficult, as does a home game with Pittsburgh in Week 16. But otherwise, it really sets up for us to all be talking about Sam Darnold and an improving Jets defense as the hot team in the league going into 2019. Whether they'll actually be the hot team once you adjust for the effects of playing teams such as the Raiders and Dolphins is another story.
32. New England Patriots
Adjusted projected DVOA of 2019 opponents: minus-4.9%
Hardest schedule stretch: Weeks 9-13 (at Ravens off their bye, bye, at Eagles, vs. Cowboys, at Texans with extra rest)
I know what you're thinking: Here we go again.
The Patriots haven't always had one of the easiest schedules in the league. Once upon a time, Darrelle Revis was an island, and in 2009 and 2010 New England's schedule ranked among the seven toughest in the NFL. But the Patriots have had an easier-than-average schedule in seven of the past eight seasons.
The good news is that our projection of the easiest schedule doesn't necessarily come true. This is the third consecutive season we've had the Patriots ranked 32nd in projected schedule strength. Their actual schedule strength came out ... slightly tougher! They were 24th last season and 28th in 2017.
The Patriots' schedule looks even easier if we examine only who their opponents are, but they are one of four teams playing consecutive games against teams coming off their bye week (vs. Cleveland in Week 8 then at Baltimore in Week 9). They have a third game against a team coming off its bye week, but that's Week 11, when both the Eagles and Patriots will be coming off the bye. The New England schedule is also interesting because the Pats get half of their divisional games out of the way by the end of September. Then they have a trip to the Jets in Week 7, and after that no divisional games until they finish with Buffalo and Miami back-to-back at home in Weeks 16 and 17.