Making the playoffs in the NFL is hard. Making it in consecutive seasons is exceptionally tough. To wit: Just five teams have reached the playoffs in each of the past two seasons: the Chiefs, Eagles, Patriots, Rams and Saints.
We have enough evidence to suggest that this year's playoff field will represent quite a different collection from 2018's group. So let's rank the teams most likely to return to the playoffs, accounting for several factors: this year's version of the roster, the schedule, the division, plus the improvement of other teams in the division.
The best bet
New England Patriots
The Patriots set the standard of excellence in professional football, having reached the postseason an astonishing 10 consecutive seasons. The roster profiles as one of the NFL's deepest, with an outstanding secondary, strength along the offensive line, a premier linebacker group and a deep stable of running backs. Tom Brady remains one of the game's best players, though he'll have to familiarize himself with a made-over group of pass-catchers. And, of course, no team is better coached, more prepared, more situationally aware or adaptable within a game than the Patriots under the guidance of Bill Belichick and his staff.
The AFC East has been playing catch-up to New England for two decades, and while there is hope in both Buffalo and New York for improved seasons (Miami is in a transition year), the Patriots enter the season as a favorite in the division and one of the NFL's most complete teams.
Area to monitor: Although New England went to Arrowhead Stadium and upended the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last season, the team posted just a 3-5 record on the road during the regular season. The Patriots must find a way to be a more efficient road team.
Next up
Kansas City Chiefs
Defensive coordinators probably woke up in cold sweats this offseason imagining what Patrick Mahomes will be capable of in his third pro season, as he took the league by storm last year en route to his MVP campaign. The Chiefs are decidedly more balanced this season, having added premier players to the defense in Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, each filling a notable need. The offense's lone question is just how the backfield duties split up, as Damien Williams stormed to a prominent role late last year but is joined by others, including Carlos Hyde and Darwin Thompson.
The AFC West figures to be competitive again, as the Chargers possess one of the most complete rosters in football, while the Broncos and especially the Raiders are clearly improved.
Area to monitor: Cornerback is a position to keep an eye on in Kansas City, as the team will lean on a group led by Kendall Fuller. In a division with outstanding receivers, KC will be put to the test.
New Orleans Saints
GM Mickey Loomis wasn't afraid to be aggressive this offseason, evidenced at the draft, in free agency and with player extensions. Notable moves like moving up in the draft to select offensive lineman Eric McCoy and retaining Teddy Bridgewater (an essential piece as Drew Brees insurance) fit within the timeline of a team ready to chase a Super Bowl again. The Saints' defense found its mojo shortly into the 2017 season and has been much improved since then, possessing a surplus of coverage players in the secondary and one of the game's most consistent pass-rush threats in Cameron Jordan.
New Orleans' obstacles to success this year include a division with two other teams (Carolina and Atlanta) that have plenty of the requisite ingredients to make a push for the postseason, while Tampa Bay should be improved with Bruce Arians as head coach. With that being said, the Saints are the justified favorites to win the division.
Area to monitor: The Saints have about as potent a wide receiver/running back duo there is in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but a dependable No. 2 receiver must emerge.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams return a significant portion of a roster that appeared in the Super Bowl last season, highlighted by an offense that boasts a receiving game as difficult to defend as there is. Head coach Sean McVay has an innovative offensive mind but perhaps is underrated in terms of his situational awareness. A cloud of uncertainty surrounds Todd Gurley's long-term knee health, but -- as things presently stand -- the horsepower of this offense is substantial. The defense remains fast and aggressive at all three levels, keyed by the best defensive player in the game in Aaron Donald.
Like the Saints, the Rams will deal with stiffer in-division competition this season, as the Cardinals and 49ers are primed for a leap, and Seattle reached the playoffs last season. That said, Los Angeles has earned the team-to-beat target on its back.
Area to monitor: Gone from the offensive line are standout guard Rodger Saffold and center John Sullivan, with 2018 draftees Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen, respectively, in line to replace them.
They should be back
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly's offense is loaded, and allow me to join the chorus of those who believe that Carson Wentz should contend for the NFL's MVP award. He's back to full health with an offensive line that features incredible talent and unique depth (a rarity in the NFL), with a well-rounded and versatile group of pass-catchers. While Philly has dealt with a rash of injuries this preseason, most of them look to be ailments that might not cost key players any regular-season game action (notably, Lane Johnson should be good for Week 1).
The challenge for Philadelphia is playing in a division that also includes a 2018 playoff team in Dallas, plus the overall strength of the NFC, with several non-playoff teams from last year set up for a better season. That being said, I expect Philadelphia to not only make the playoffs again but contend for the Super Bowl.
Area to monitor: It's hard to find cover corners, which Philly learned last season. The availability of Ronald Darby, who continues to recover from an ACL tear, is worth following closely. He's a key piece.
Chicago Bears
The Bears were a year ahead of schedule last season, dominating the NFC North and nearly earning a first-round bye. In many ways, I expect them to be a better football team this season, as Mitchell Trubisky should have a far firmer grasp of the offense, while young studs on defense can and will make a leap (imagine how good Roquan Smith will be).
This is about the rising tides of others in the NFC North: Minnesota and Green Bay face-planted last season, one in which each was expected to contend for a Super Bowl, while Detroit is in a far better place this year in the second season under Matt Patricia. While it can be fool's gold to use the previous year to measure how difficult a team's schedule will be, those who value the metric have noted that the Bears have the most difficult schedule among NFC playoff teams from 2018.
Area to monitor: Bears fans are sick of hearing and reading about this, but until it's solidified, the kicking job is the elephant in the room. Eddy Pineiro is currently the lone kicker on the roster.
Good enough to be back, but the division is tough
Dallas Cowboys
As of this writing, running back Ezekiel Elliott remains away from the Cowboys as he seeks to sign a record-breaking contract. That's a huge part of the equation, as Elliott has had 28 games with 20 or more carries since entering the league in 2016, 11 more than any other player in that stretch. The Cowboys have had just one prolonged stretch without Elliott: The team went 3-3 during a six-game 2017 ban. Assuming he returns for the start of the season, the roster is one of the best in football, featuring blue-chip offensive line play, incredible linebackers, an improved receiving group and one of the best pass-rushers in football in DeMarcus Lawrence.
But again, with an excellent team in its division already, the Cowboys have a steep hill to climb to repeat as NFC East champs.
Area to monitor: Lawrence has been nursing a shoulder injury following surgery, while fellow defensive end Robert Quinn will serve a two-game ban to begin the season. While the defensive line has talent, there are question marks along it.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks don't rebuild, they retool, as was evidenced last season when they marched to 10-6 when most expected something closer to 6-10. In a pass-happy league, Seattle posted the run-heaviest offense in the NFL in 2018 with one of the most efficient passing offenses in football (Russell Wilson posted a perfect rating when targeting breakout star Tyler Lockett last year). But it felt like the 2018 season extracted maximum performance out of the roster. The team does boast two of the best players in the league in Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner, but the roster still has holes to fill.
The division is, as mentioned earlier, going to be improved, and the Rams still are the favorites, but what Seattle has proved is that counting this team out is generally unwise.
Area to monitor: While Ziggy Ansah appears likely to play in Week 1, the team could be without top pick L.J. Collier to begin the season. Top interior rusher Jarran Reed will miss six games due to suspension, so finding ways to generate pressure will be an early challenge.
Los Angeles Chargers
It's hard to poke many holes in the Chargers' roster at full strength, as GM Tom Telesco has assembled a balanced squad with some game-changers at integral spots. But star safety Derwin James is now dealing with a months-long recovery due to a fifth metatarsal fracture, and Keenan Allen is nursing an ankle injury, though he is expected back by Week 1, per colleague Adam Schefter. Beyond that, left tackle Russell Okung is recovering from a pulmonary embolism that could keep him off the field to begin the season; Trent Scott is a candidate to start in place of him if need be. Melvin Gordon continues to seek a new contract, leaving his early-season status in doubt.
A long list of questions is somewhat offset by a strong cast of playmakers on offense, an excellent pass rush and, of course, the brilliance of Philip Rivers. Despite the preseason hits, don't count this squad out.
Area to monitor: For four straight seasons, the Chargers have found themselves playing catch-up early in the season: The team's record through four games from 2015 to 2018 is 2-2, 1-3, 0-4 and 2-2. Kansas City is simply too talented for the Chargers to start slow again.
Capable of returning, but the division is deep
Houston Texans
It feels like an eternity ago, but the Texans did start the 2018 season 0-3 before ripping off nine straight wins en route to a division championship. Questions that pestered the Texans last season persist: can a patchwork offensive line make strides this offseason to help ease the burden that quarterback Deshaun Watson carries? A devastating ACL injury to running back Lamar Miller now has the team likely searching for reinforcements, too.
The front seven of the defense -- particularly upon Jadeveon Clowney's return -- is a major strength, but the defense will be put to the test with a schedule in 2019 that includes some top-notch quarterback play. The AFC South looks to be the truest four-team race for a division title this year as well, with both Tennessee and Jacksonville eyeing the postseason. Watson has a unique ability to keep his team competitive, so a return to the postseason under Bill O'Brien shouldn't be a major surprise.
Area to monitor: The tight end group in Houston is one blended with upside, as Kahale Warring (2019 third rounder), Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas have a shot to form an intriguing trio for Watson.
Baltimore Ravens
It wasn't a full overhaul on defense this offseason, but it was darned close: Notable key veterans that are no longer with Baltimore include linebacker C.J. Mosley, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, safety Eric Weddle and outside linebacker Za'Darius Smith. GM Eric DeCosta has already shown himself to be a resourceful and shrewd personnel man, helping to offset these departures with the signing of Earl Thomas. But leadership and communication will need to be accounted for in Baltimore, which has reconfigured its offensive system with a full offseason to work with Lamar Jackson. The second-year quarterback has drawn rave reviews in training camp.
But perhaps the most pressing hurdle for the Ravens is that the AFC North has three legit contenders for its crown, with Pittsburgh and Cleveland squarely in the mix. This division is going to be a tussle.
Area to monitor: Linebacker Patrick Onwuasor (known as Peanut in Baltimore) stands to be the on-field quarterback for the Ravens' defense. He's a capable player, and the Ravens have long had an eye for scouting and developing backers. He's primed to handle some of the on-field communication that Mosley previously accounted for.
Indianapolis Colts
This write-up would have looked different a month ago, but the stunning news of Andrew Luck's retirement has shifted the overall outlook of this franchise. The Colts were little more than a walkover in 2017 when Luck missed the entire season, though the team should be a far more formidable weekly out with Jacoby Brissett again under center this time around. The offensive line is a force, the pass rush looks to be improved and the secondary should play with a certain and undeniable edge of toughness and physicality.
While Luck's retirement was devastating in many ways, it's worth highlighting the strengths of this organization that will keep Indy in the mix: the culture, coaching staff, scouting staff and far more competitive roster than two seasons ago.
Area to monitor: Third-year safety Malik Hooker has some of the goods to emerge as a vacuum cleaner in the back end of this defense capable of making plays on the ball regularly. Health has limited him to 21 games in two pro seasons, but he profiles as a make-the-leap candidate this season.