Seasoned NFL insiders disagree about whether Green Bay or Cleveland makes the most attractive landing spot for head-coaching candidates this offseason.
The divide marks a massive shift in perceptions from the recent past. That shift came into focus when I asked a well-rounded group of league insiders to rank the eight vacancies from a candidate's perspective. The panel included two executives, a personnel director and a veteran coach.
I've combined the rankings here and included insiders' thoughts on the good and the bad for the Browns, Packers, Cardinals, Jets, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Bengals and Broncos. We'll update the list if new openings become available and make notations when coaches are hired.
T-1. Green Bay Packers
The good: Aaron Rodgers awaits the next head coach. Rodgers has been so stellar for so long that a 2018 season with 25 touchdown passes and two interceptions felt like a down year for him.
"You have Rodgers for four years and no owner," an exec said. "You should have enough time to build up your program."
A coach who has faced and studied Rodgers over multiple seasons placed Green Bay atop his ballot without reservation. He wondered how anyone could place a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback anywhere but No. 1 on this list, contending that Rodgers is basically a standard deviation better than the other top-tier QBs.
"It is not like you are walking into [Drew] Brees at 36, 37 or 38," this coach said. "You just need to raise up the defense and special teams and give Rodgers a little more structure that he likes, and they will be a playoff team."
The bad: Some see a shaky roster, unrealistic expectations and a potentially concerning power structure after team president Mark Murphy set up the organization so that both coach and GM report to him.
"I do not think Green Bay is as attractive as you would think," the personnel director said. "Obviously, you would love to work with Aaron Rodgers, but he is 35 years old and you must win right now, in my opinion. The whole structure worries me if I'm a head coach."
The coach downplayed those concerns, especially in relation to Cleveland.
"Would you rather have the impulsive, interfering and at-times-doesn't-think-straight [Browns owner Jimmy] Haslam, or the former All-Pro safety and executive board member Murphy?" the coach asked.
T-1. Cleveland Browns
The good: Quarterback Baker Mayfield looks like an emerging star. There's enough talent on both sides of the ball for the next head coach to deliver the franchise from NFL purgatory, becoming a Cleveland icon in the process. The bar has been so low for so long that merely reaching the playoffs would feel like a major success.
"The quarterback is a 10-year Tier 1 player and, at worst, Tier 2," an exec said. "I think he is Tier 2 next year, easily, and eventually Tier 1."
The personnel director thought the Browns could win the AFC North next season.
"The GM [John Dorsey] and talent is there," this director said. "They have the quarterback, they have some exciting pieces, they have the talent defensively and offensively, they are in position to really win the North. The only thing that worries me is the owner and how much he will get involved."
The bad: The organization has appeared in disarray at various points under Haslam's ownership, and that's one reason the team has an NFL-worst 27-84-1 record on his watch.
"Cleveland would be No. 1, but the owner is a major problem," an exec said. "It is unclear who he listens to between [John] Dorsey and [chief strategy officer Paul] DePodesta."
3. New York Jets
The good: Sam Darnold gives the Jets a young quarterback to build around while Jets nemesis Tom Brady enters his age-42 season.
"The Jets were No. 2 on my list behind Cleveland because the quarterback is real," the personnel director said. "He is going to be a good player, a very good player. They need some more talent. The GM [Mike Maccagnan] needs to get some players in there."
The bad: Brady hasn't fallen off yet, the Jets' roster is weak, and the GM could be entering a make-or-break season. Barring improvement on the GM front, an exec said the next head coach should be skilled enough as a politician and coach to develop Darnold, create a winning culture and maneuver for control of the roster to take control of his future.
4. Denver Broncos
The good: Denver possesses elite edge rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, plus a couple of solid, young pieces on offense. The team had a long-established winning culture before its recent struggles.
"I think Denver has a chance," the personnel director said. "The pass-rushers give them a chance to have a top defense. They have some youth there. They just need to find a quarterback."
The bad: The Broncos have the worst quarterback situation in a division featuring Patrick Mahomes. Their ownership situation is messy and could be headed for a long court battle. An exec said GM John Elway's strong hand with head coaches could be a challenge for some candidates.
"I don't think there is anything on offense to be excited about, and all their resources need to go to that side of the ball," the coach said.
5. Miami Dolphins
The good: Owner Stephen Ross has indicated that the team will take a longer-term approach to team building, which could lower expectations initially and provide an opportunity to build the right way.
Ross' decision to streamline the front office also could be appealing to coaches who are inherently fearful of who might have the owner's ear within an organization.
"If they had a young quarterback with potential, more talented players and a good cap situation, Miami would be higher because of the division, the location and ownership resources," an exec said. "This will be a long rebuild, but it has potential."
The bad: Multiple decision-makers have taken different approaches to the roster in recent seasons, leaving to the next coach a collection of pieces that do not fit well together. There is also little hope at the quarterback position.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The good: There's a talented, young quarterback (Jameis Winston), an elite wide receiver (Mike Evans) and some talented pieces in the defensive front seven.
"In Tampa, unlike in Arizona, you know you've got some skill guys," a coach said. "You can throw the football to win games or at least compete. It's just the quarterback [Winston] can be such a turnover machine."
The bad: Winston and the front office could be entering a make-or-break year, and there's little evidence that ownership has a coherent winning plan. The next head coach will be the team's fifth since Jon Gruden's departure a decade ago.
"It seems like everything they do is to satisfy a short-term need," an exec said. "What kind of runway will you have as a head coach? How does that mesh with the lack of a plan elsewhere?"
7. Arizona Cardinals
The good: Josh Rosen gives the Cardinals a young quarterback with a chance. Running back David Johnson, cornerback Patrick Peterson and pass-rusher Chandler Jones give Arizona three talented pieces in their prime years. Arizona also holds the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft.
"I pushed up Arizona a little just based on the quarterback," the coach said.
The bad: The rest of the roster appears lacking, especially on the offensive side. GM Steve Keim could be vulnerable after underwhelming drafts, a failed 2018 coaching search and a DUI arrest last offseason.
One exec said recent events in Arizona -- Keim's situation, followed by Steve Wilks' one-and-done season -- could indicate the presence of dysfunction that should be concerning for a head-coaching candidate.
"Arizona is a long way away on both sides of the ball, and they don't seem to have any way to get there soon," the coach said. "There is no help for the poor quarterback. As soon as that receiver [Larry Fitzgerald] leaves, that whole thing gets worse. Then you have to beat San Francisco, Seattle and L.A. in that division, who are all better. They could be down for years."
8. Cincinnati Bengals
The good: There's decent talent on the roster. Ownership has been patient with head coaches, to say the least. One exec said this could be the third- or fourth-best job on the list if ownership is as patient with its next coach as it was with Marvin Lewis.
"They have always had talent," the personnel director said. "They have never been able to seal the deal. A fresh face will come in and be good for that team."
The bad: The Bengals have been so set in their ways of operation that a new coach could have less opportunity to create his own culture. It's why the team has seemed most focused on candidates with strong ties to the team. That makes this job less appealing from afar.
"[Owner] Mike Brown is stepping away from this, so it is going to be more [daughter] Katie Blackburn's call," the coach said. "Maybe she is way better than her father and this is a gold mine for someone. We just do not know."
One of the execs echoed that uncertainty, saying that he had no idea what to make of the situation.
"It could be total boom or bust," the exec said.