Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson could have been speaking to all 12 NFL playoff teams Sunday night.
"Always get in the tournament -- always get in, and see what happens," Pederson told Eagles players after Philly clinched the NFC's sixth seed.
With postseason seeding set, six NFL coaches and evaluators ranked the field of playoff teams 1 through 12. I've molded their votes into a composite order and peppered the final ranking with their insights.
Each team's entry includes 2018 season rankings in ESPN's expected-points efficiency metrics for offense, defense, special teams and overall. Twelve of the top 13 teams in total efficiency reached the playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers (ninth) were the lone exception.
1. New Orleans Saints (13-3, No. 1 seed in NFC)
Off: 3 | Def: 28 | ST: 1 | Total: 5
The Saints possess many of the characteristics a playoff team should possess:
Top-tier QB paired with elite offensive playcaller
Offensive balance via strong offensive line and running backs
Capable pass-rush rotation led by Cameron Jordan (12 sacks)
Strong home-field advantage
Competent defense
"I think the Saints have the best combination of offense and defense," a defensive coach said. "Their defense is greatly improved last season and this season. They have the best playcaller-and-quarterback combination [Sean Payton and Drew Brees] of the whole thing."
The Saints ranked only 24th in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric through Week 16 because they were especially poor against Tampa Bay (Week 1), Atlanta (Week 3), Baltimore (Week 7) and the Rams (Week 9).
In a testament to the Saints' overall team balance, they won three of the four games when their defense was especially poor. Throw in their Week 16 game against Pittsburgh and the Saints were 4-1 when their defensive efficiency was below average. Their .800 winning percentage in those games was best in the NFL (I excluded Week 17 from the calculations because the Saints rested starters).
"Dallas showed they were capable of doing some things defensively against those guys," a personnel director said. "Chicago would be a very, very interesting matchup because that defense could stop New Orleans' run game. Part of me wants to say Seattle could be a tough matchup as well, but it is not the same dynamic when Seattle is on the road."
2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, No. 1 seed in AFC)
Off: 1 | Def: 25 | ST: 4 | Total: 1
The Chiefs are among seven teams since 2010 to average at least 33 offensive points per game over their final six regular-season games. The other six teams combined for a 33-3 record in those late-season games. These Chiefs finished 3-3, which makes them stand out in the group listed below:
2011 Saints (37.8): 6-0
2010 Patriots (34.7): 6-0
2011 Patriots (34.3): 6-0
2016 Falcons (34.3): 5-1
2013 Broncos (33.5): 5-1
2014 Cowboys (33.2): 5-1
2018 Chiefs (33.0): 3-3
Can Patrick Mahomes cover for a defense that hasn't covered well enough? Can he do it with Damien Williams and Spencer Ware at running back instead of Kareem Hunt, who was a more dynamic dual threat?
"Mahomes is just really hard to handle," an evaluator said. "He's got the rarest ability, which is ultra-mobility and great accuracy. It is hard to win a shootout with a playoff-inexperienced quarterback, but I think Andy Reid can do that when needed. It could be easier for him than it will be for [Sean] McVay and the Rams." The Chiefs' 3-3 finish included road defeats to the Rams and Seahawks, plus a home defeat to the Chargers.
After securing the AFC's top seed, the Chiefs are two Arrowhead Stadium victories from reaching the Super Bowl. Kansas City went 7-1 at home this season. Six of those victories came against San Francisco, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Denver, Arizona and Oakland. The Chiefs went 1-1 at home against the playoff field, beating Baltimore in overtime before losing to the Chargers, with both games in the season's final four weeks.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4, No. 5 seed in AFC)
Off: 5 | Def: 5 | ST: 29 | Total: 6
While coaches and evaluators ranked the Chargers ahead of the Ravens on overall team strength, they were not penciling in Los Angeles for the divisional round. A road game against Baltimore in the 10 a.m. PT Sunday slot appears especially threatening after Baltimore shut down the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16.
"They are a good team," a personnel director said of the Chargers. "Their linebackers and secondary can be a concern for them. Also, [Philip] Rivers can still turn the ball over at times. If they cannot run the ball, they will struggle, like you saw against Baltimore."
Rivers was enjoying an MVP-caliber season before tossing six interceptions over the final three games, matching his previous total for the season. Running back Melvin Gordon can provide balance on offense. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa lead a capable pass rush. Inconsistent special teams and the NFL's worst home-field advantage keep the Chargers below the Saints, but both teams went 7-1 on the road, best in the league.
"The Chargers can go into any building and win the AFC," a former general manager said.
Any building? The Ravens will put that one to the test.
The Chargers' No. 29 ranking on special teams also bears mention, especially with Baltimore ranking in the top five. Los Angeles' ranking jumps closer to No. 20 if we eliminate Week 1, which featured the Chargers' worst single-game efficiency mark on special teams in the 13-year history of the metric (208 games).
4. New England Patriots (11-5, No. 2 seed in AFC)
Off: 4 | Def: 8 | ST: 20 | Total: 4
Three teams finished Week 17 ranked among the NFL's top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears and Chargers were two. The Patriots were the other.
"In the AFC, every [playoff] team but the Chiefs has a credible defense," a coach said. "Even the Colts do. New England does in its own way."
With a first-round bye, the Patriots stand two victories away from their ninth Super Bowl with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.
"Their playoff experience makes a big difference," an evaluator said. "They're built with their style of offense so they can win in the bad-weather games."
The Patriots rank among the NFL's top three in percentage of snaps with two running backs and percentage of snaps with the QB under center. That does not make their offense old-school by any means, but those traits do more easily enable an older-school approach when needed.
"I think they have worries when they are not at home," a personnel director said. "Injuries have affected them. [Rob] Gronkowski's age and health are concerns. Their running backs have been in and out of the lineup. But they are a talented team that can make a run. When you have that quarterback and coach, you can make a run, but I do not think they are as scary as they have been in the past."
5. Chicago Bears (12-4, No. 3 seed in NFC)
Off: 10 | Def: 1 | ST: 30 | Total: 2
The Bears' big jump from 14.2 offensive points per game in 2017, which ranked last, to a respectable 23.5 average (11th) this season has won praise and helped vault Chicago into contention. It has not convinced everyone that the Bears' offense is as good as its ranking.
"I think they can do it, I really do, because that defense is real," an evaluator said, "but it is just like the Rams last year. Do you trust the quarterback [Jared Goff for the Rams, Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears] on third down? When they need it and it matters most, can they do it? I do not know if they can."
The Bears' road to the Super Bowl will take them through New Orleans or Los Angeles if they can knock off the underdog Eagles in the wild-card round.
"Trubisky can be handled and No. 29 [Tarik Cohen] can be handled, especially if they face teams that have played them before and are familiar with the wrinkles in that offense," a defensive coach said.
6. Los Angeles Rams (13-3, No. 2 seed in NFC)
Off: 2 | Def: 14 | ST: 18 | Total: 3
Insiders wondered which Rams team they would see in the playoffs. Consider these seven-game splits:
First seven games: 7-0 record, elite offense (92 efficiency, No. 1 in NFL) and an above-average defense that allowed 18.3 offensive points per game (fourth)
Next seven games: 4-3 record, above-average offense (58 efficiency, No. 13 in NFL) and a defense that allowed 30.7 offensive points per game (32nd)
The potential is there for the Rams to recapture their early form. Their defense perked up in December, and they expect to get running back Todd Gurley II back in the lineup after what will be a one-month break that should allow him to be fully recuperated from injury.
"If that running back is not healthy, you can probably cancel them out, because so much goes through him," a personnel director said. "They do have talent on defense. Aaron Donald is phenomenal and they can get turnovers, so I don't think their defense is as much of an Achilles' heel as you might want to say. The running back is the big thing."
With Gurley, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive back Lamarcus Joyner expected back for the playoffs, receiver Cooper Kupp is the only starter the Rams have lost for the season. That makes them especially healthy at the right time.
7. Seattle Seahawks (10-6, No. 5 seed in NFC)
Off: 8 | Def: 15 | ST: 14 | Total: 10
Players on Seattle's roster and reserve lists average 26.0 years old, tied with Dallas for second youngest behind Cleveland among all teams, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
With so much youth, some thought 2018 would be a rebuilding season for Seattle. It was, but this team won anyway, including six of its final seven. Seattle did it with an old-school formula that saw the team finish with more rushes than pass attempts for the fourth time since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback (no other NFL team had more rushes than pass attempts this season).
"The Seahawks can be hard to handle because no one except maybe Baltimore is as committed to running the ball, and they have a Tier 1 quarterback who is very playoff-experienced," an evaluator said. "That is a contrarian way to play. They might arguably belong higher than the Rams at this point in the season."
Special-teams issues nearly doomed Seattle against Arizona in Week 17 (the performance was so poor that it dropped Seattle seven spots to No. 14 in special-teams efficiency). Two weeks earlier, a variety of issues resigned Seattle to defeat at San Francisco. The team finished 2-4 against the playoff field, including 0-2 on the road.
"Seattle is physical and very tough in its running game, but they also have the scrambling quarterback who can hit the deep balls," an exec said. "They are great with turnover differential and Russell Wilson has that fourth-quarter magic, so Seattle can be a dangerous team."
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-6, No. 4 seed in AFC)
Off: 16 | Def: 7 | ST: 5 | Total: 7
The Ravens won six of their final seven games without asking quarterback Lamar Jackson to attempt more than 25 passes in any of them. Every coach and evaluator can point out the Ravens' limitations in the passing game, but none would be particularly eager to face Baltimore at this point.
"They have a very good defense in all areas," an exec said, "plus a run-first, time-of-possession offense. They also have an experienced coaching staff. I think they could win multiple playoff games and I would probably have them a couple notches higher on this list."
Pulling out the AFC North title shifted the odds in the Ravens' favor by giving them at least one home game.
"They are probably not going to have four touchdown passes from the pocket plus two field goals and win the game 34-31," an evaluator said. "Someone will contain the quarterback's rushing in the playoffs, in my opinion. But they do have a good combination going with the defense, run game and young quarterback."
9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6, No. 6 seed in AFC)
Off: 11 | Def: 12 | ST: 11 | Total: 11
The Colts entered 2018 with a first-time head coach, first-time coordinators and a quarterback regaining his footing following an extended injury layoff. They joined the 2015 Chiefs as the only teams in the 16-game schedule era (1978-present) to reach the playoffs following a 1-5 start.
"Having a Tier 1 quarterback [Andrew Luck] with a good playcaller [Frank Reich] makes them compelling," a defensive coach said. "They have an effort-pursuit defense that can keep them in games and is playing better all the time. Their new offensive line and young defense have been big in their win."
Indy's 9-1 mark it its past 10 games includes victories over two playoff-bound teams: Houston (24-21 on the road) and Dallas (23-0 at home). The lone defeat was a 6-0 loss at Jacksonville that lent credence to the idea that familiarity counts quite a bit in divisional matchups.
10. Houston Texans (11-5, No. 3 seed in AFC)
Off: 13 | Def: 3 | ST: 17 | Total: 8
An insider who ranked the Texans eighth -- and well above the Colts -- called them a dangerous team that could win multiple playoff games. Others thought issues in pass protection and in the secondary would be too much for Houston to overcome. A defensive coach called Deshaun Watson a "shocking" player for his ability to make defenders miss and still throw passes with pinpoint accuracy.
"Their offensive line has been banged up, and the quarterback just took 62 sacks for the season," a personnel director said. "Their secondary is a little questionable. But their defense plays well. They are opportunistic on that side of the ball and have the weapons on offense to make a deep run."
Houston is the fifth team in the 16-game schedule era to reach the playoffs following an 0-3 start and the first since divisional realignment in 2002.
11. Dallas Cowboys (10-6, No. 4 seed in NFC)
Off: 14 | Def: 9 | ST: 26 | Total: 13
We have reached the NFC East portion of the rankings, which seems a bit unfair when considering the Cowboys won seven of their final eight, which included a 13-10 victory over New Orleans, a season sweep of the Eagles and, yes, a brutal 23-0 defeat at Indy.
The Cowboys have the potential to run the ball and play outstanding defense while getting efficient play from a mobile quarterback in Dak Prescott. Why, then, aren't insiders mentioning them with Baltimore and Seattle? Because they question whether Dallas has the toughness, resolve and organizational culture that those teams possess. They see the Cowboys as a team that has coddled its stars and has too often fallen short as a result, but with Dallas playing at home in the wild-card round, oddsmakers made them 2.5-point favorites against Seattle.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, No. 6 seed in NFC)
Off: 15 | Def: 13 | ST: 13 | Total: 12
What could be better for the Eagles than sneaking into the playoffs with Nick Foles behind center (ribs permitting) and a bunch of league insiders ranking them last in the field? Earning a first-round bye with Carson Wentz would be much better, obviously. But, like Pederson was saying, just get into the tournament. The Eagles have done that, and now they'll face another team known for its offensive trickery.
"You thought Halloween was in October, but this is trick or f---ing treat between Pederson and [Matt] Nagy," a veteran evaluator said. "It's two teams with quarterbacks who at times play at backup levels. Which misdirection screen, throwback pass or throw to the quarterback is going to be the difference?"
An evaluator thought the Eagles missed their 2017 offensive coordinator [Reich] and quarterbacks coach [John DeFilippo]. But the Eagles are 4-1 with Foles in the lineup this season. That includes a 30-23 road victory over the Rams and a 32-30 home victory over Houston in the past three weeks.
"Their running game is not what it was and the secondary is a little scary, but their defense is good and their front four can be dominant," an evaluator said.