It's time for 2019 NFL predictions from league insiders as the new year approaches.
One year ago, insiders predicted Kirk Cousins would leave Washington, Carson Palmer would retire, Patrick Mahomes would become a starter and the Cleveland Browns would escape the AFC North basement. They predicted Bruce Arians would join the broadcast booth, Mitchell Trubisky would enjoy a big revival and the NFL would scrap or amend the Rooney Rule.
There were also a few big swings and misses. Sometimes, those were the most interesting predictions of all.
We begin the 2019 predictions with perhaps the wildest one of the bunch this year. A couple of insiders thought the idea was preposterous. Three others embraced it as plausible. All agreed that there could be veteran starting quarterbacks traded this coming offseason, even if there was division over whether Matthew Stafford's name was a plausible one to include.
1. The Detroit Lions will trade Matthew Stafford
Stafford signed his current contract in August 2017, before Matt Patricia took over as head coach. The thinking behind this prediction is Patricia could want to set his own course with his own quarterback. Trading Stafford would give the Lions needed draft capital to rebuild their roster.
"Patricia and [general manager Bob] Quinn both spent a long time in the Patriots' organization, where they watched Tom Brady very closely," an insider said. "They are going to want somebody who prepares and manages the game more like Tom."
Right, but doesn't nearly every team want a quarterback like that? Stafford enjoyed some of his best seasons recently, but the team still has not won a playoff game since 1991, and Stafford isn't having a particularly strong 2018. He ranks 22nd in Total QBR and 29th in yards per attempt.
The Lions, currently projected to draft in the fifth overall slot, could conceivably get better value from their quarterback investment.
"Patricia is going to say, 'This is not the guy that is going to get me fired,'" another insider said.
Stafford, whose $27 million annual average ranks fifth among quarterbacks, entered the NFL under the previous collective bargaining agreement, saddling the Lions with an elevated contract floor when they entered into extensions. The team ranks 15th in Total QBR and 17th in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric during the Stafford era. The Lions have been worse on defense (26th) and special teams (25th) over that span. They also have not developed a consistent ground game, arguably putting too much on Stafford's shoulders.
"I think the Lions would be absolutely foolish to trade Stafford," a dissenter to this prediction said. "They have never given him enough help. Even when he had good receiving weapons, there was no run game. This year, they traded Golden Tate despite still being in the playoff race."
Here's where the Lions have ranked season-by-season during the Stafford era in ESPN's efficiency metrics and Total QBR:
2. Eli Manning will return to the New York Giants
The Giants could be emotionally invested in proving they were correct in sticking with Manning last offseason when they could have drafted a quarterback second overall. Beyond that, the stats say Manning has played well enough down the stretch for the Giants to keep him on the merits.
"I think the Giants will show loyalty because Eli did prior to the [2018] draft, and he won the two Super Bowls," an insider said. "People say he could go to Jacksonville, but if he goes anywhere else and wins even a little, that is tough for the Giants to stomach. I don't think New York fans would ever forgive."
Manning has 11 touchdown passes with four interceptions over the second half of the season. In the 10 previous seasons, Manning averaged the same number of touchdowns and more than twice as many interceptions over the ninth through 15th games of seasons. His passer rating (95.3) and QBR (65.5) over those games are much higher this season.
3. Kyler Murray will be in an NFL training camp
The thinking: The arm, athleticism and overall makeup will draw NFL teams to Murray, leading a team to select him in the first few rounds of the 2019 draft. Although Murray has a contract with the Oakland Athletics, he will find his way into camp with an NFL team, keeping open his options for now.
"There's a lot of buzz on Murray," one of the insiders said. "I think he goes first two rounds."
4. Rob Gronkowski will retire
The Patriots reportedly shopped Gronkowski to Detroit before the season, suggesting coach Bill Belichick was looking to part with a declining superstar one year early as opposed to one year late. Gronkowski reportedly nixed the trade by refusing to take the Lions' calls and threatening retirement.
If Belichick wasn't excited about paying $8 million in salary to Gronkowski this season, would he want to pay $9 million to him in 2019? Gronkowski is averaging 55 receiving yards per game and one touchdown every four games. The yardage average would be Gronkowski's lowest since his 2010 rookie season. The touchdown average would be a career low. Gronkowski went without a reception against Buffalo in Week 16.
"I do think Gronk retires," an insider said. "He looks miserable out there."
5. The NFL will enter into an agreement with a major gambling entity
The NBA became the first major American sports league to strike a gambling-sponsorship deal, signing with MGM Resorts in August. Major League Baseball signed with MGM in November. It's only a matter of time before the NFL strikes its own deal, and 2019 could be the year.
6. Jim Caldwell will be an NFL head coach again
Teams focused on finding a young schemer to incorporate trendy offensive wrinkles could risk sacrificing qualities that matter more in a head coach. Caldwell's steady leadership and overall track record could make him an appealing alternative. One insider thought the former Lions coach could surface as a candidate in Green Bay.
Caldwell has a 174-98 (.640) record in the regular season and a 13-11 (.542) mark in the postseason during four NFL stops as an assistant or head coach. His teams had winning records in all four stops. Caldwell has won Super Bowls with teams that were offensive (Indianapolis) and defensive (Baltimore) in orientation. His stints with Indianapolis and Detroit saw a young Peyton Manning and a relatively seasoned Stafford become more efficient by reducing interceptions.
7. The NFL will change rules governing punt returns in an effort to reduce injuries and penalties
Changes made to the kickoff have reduced injuries, according to the NFL. The league already has indicated its intention to investigate punts in an effort to reduce both injuries and penalties, as ESPN's Kevin Seifert has reported.
One potential remedy on the penalty front could include raising the standard for blocks in the back so that less blatant/relevant violations might not be flagged in the future. The prediction here is that the league will act in 2019 instead of waiting, building on what it sees as successes with the kickoff return.
8. Joe Flacco will be a starting quarterback in Week 1, but not for Baltimore
The Ravens' commitment to Lamar Jackson likely spells the end for Flacco in Baltimore. He won a Super Bowl when Baltimore had the type of defensive, run-oriented team Jacksonville has tried to assemble. That's why the Jaguars could make sense for him.
9. The Arizona Cardinals will trade the first overall pick in the draft
Teams with established quarterbacks have traded away early selections to QB-needy teams in recent seasons. Tennessee sent the No. 1 pick to the Rams in 2016. Indianapolis sent the third overall pick to the Jets last year. The Cardinals already have a highly drafted quarterback in Josh Rosen; they need multiple picks to improve their roster, even though passing on a potential top pick such as Quinnen Williams might be difficult.
"That is very possible considering that [general manager] Steve Keim needs to re-establish himself after a rough year, and the easiest way to do that is to swing a couple of good draft-day trades," an insider said.
10. The New England Patriots will select a quarterback in the first two rounds
That's what they did when they selected Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014. That's what they might need to do as they line up a longer-term alternative to Tom Brady.
One key variable could be whether Belichick plans to stick around for the long term. A couple of insiders predicted that 2019 could be his final season with the team.