ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks NFL insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 11. This week's games: Packers-Seahawks, Cowboys-Falcons, Titans-Colts, Vikings-Bears and Chiefs-Rams.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: ATL by 3.5 | Insiders pick: DAL (2/3)
All three insiders could have gone the other direction with their picks.
"I actually think Atlanta will win at home with a chip on its shoulder after last week, but they sure do have issues," one of the insiders said. "One thing they showed in the Browns game is that just sitting back in the same defense is too easy to scheme against. And then the other thing is, the Browns were able to run the ball extremely well. If Dallas can do that, they will have their way."
Ezekiel Elliott had 25 touches and 187 scrimmage yards against Philadelphia last week, including 151 yards rushing and an 8.0-yard average per carry. The Falcons allowed 176 yards to Browns rookie Nick Chubb last week, plus three touchdown passes and a 94.5 QBR to rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield.
"The matchup of this game will be Dallas' defensive line against Atlanta's offensive line," another insider said. "Atlanta's offensive line is beat up this year. They had the good fortune of being healthy up front in the past. Not this year, and it is affecting Matt Ryan. This is a game where Atlanta could figure out a way to win at home, even though on paper Dallas should win."
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: IND by 2 | Insiders pick: IND (2/3)
One insider picking Indy filed this game into the trap category after Tennessee scored impressive victories over Dallas and New England (is a trap game possible when it's a key divisional matchup?). The other insider backing the Colts said he thought an "amazing" Andrew Luck would find a way at home.
"I think Tennessee quietly has one of the best rosters in the AFC," the insider picking the Titans countered. "They are strong in a lot of key areas. This could be very much like the Jaguars-Colts game last week, where the Colts are right there in it the entire way. I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts won it, but I favor the Titans for their overall balance."
Luck has 10 touchdown passes and one pick with zero sacks, a 131.0 passer rating and 91.8 QBR during a Colts winning streak against Buffalo, Oakland and Jacksonville. The Titans' Marcus Mariota has four touchdown passes, one rushing score, six sacks, a 122.2 passer rating and 78.3 QBR in the two games against Dallas and New England. Both quarterbacks have third-down QBRs in the 90s during their teams' winning streaks.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: CHI by 2.5 | Insiders pick: MIN (2/3)
The Bears are 5-0 against teams that had losing records at kickoff. No other team has played or won so many games against losing teams. Chicago's 1-2 record against winning teams included a victory over a Tampa Bay team that was about to fall off a cliff, a road defeat against a Miami team with Brock Osweiler at quarterback and a close home loss to New England.
This means Chicago has a prime opportunity to collect its most impressive victory when Minnesota visits Soldier Field.
"[Bears head coach Matt] Nagy does a really good job game planning and they will do some things to beat that Cover 2ish-type defense," the insider picking the Bears said. "They have the tools -- the tight end who is pretty explosive [Trey Burton], the back [Tarik Cohen] who is explosive and then some receivers who are starting to come along with Allen Robinson returning and [Anthony] Miller figuring it out. Throw in Khalil Mack returning to the defense and I'll take Chicago at home."
Among tight ends with at least 20 catches, Burton trails only Tampa Bay's O.J. Howard in percentage of receptions gaining more than 15 yards (he has 11 in 26 catches on balls thrown from outside the 15-yard line).
"Chicago's formula on offense is [Mitch] Trubisky running and the backs running, and lower-risk passes like screens and inside-breaking routes," an insider picking Minnesota said. "Minnesota's defense is so fast that I don't think Trubisky's running will tip the scales. He is going to have to throw. With a bye week to prepare, Minnesota's defenders should be draped on those routes, which increases the degree of difficulty and makes this matchup so intriguing."
The third insider called Chicago a "pretty dynamic" team, but with so much excitement surrounding the Bears following their 6-3 start, he thought there was a good chance for this to be a statement game by Minnesota that resets the divisional hierarchy.
"To me, this is a Trubisky-has-two-interceptions type of game and comes back to reality a little bit," this insider said, "but it's a great opportunity for Chicago to show otherwise."
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams
Monday: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: LAR by 3.5 | Insiders pick: LAR (2/3)
The Chiefs were supposed to be potent on offense and weak on defense. They have been both of those things. The Rams were supposed to be strong on both sides of the ball. Their defense has not met expectations, which is why the first team to 35 points could win this one.
"I am going to pick the Rams as the team that I feel has the better overall roster," one insider said. "My prediction is that [Patrick] Mahomes will have a costly pick at some point in the game."
Mahomes threw a league-high five interceptions on intermediate passes (10 to 19 yards downfield) in Weeks 5-8. Only one, thrown at New England, proved especially costly from a win-probability standpoint. Mahomes, who leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and trails only Drew Brees in Total QBR (83.6 to Brees' 86.2), will be taking aim against a Rams defense that has allowed eight touchdown passes with no interceptions over the past three weeks.
Why the struggles for the Rams' defense in those games? Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were the opposing quarterbacks. Adding Mahomes to that lineup probably isn't going to help the Rams reverse this statistical trend.
"This is a fun matchup with Marcus Peters and Sammy Watkins trading teams and then facing each other," one of the insiders said. "Peters is better when he is off and can play with vision to the passer, jumping routes. His instincts are what make him dynamic. The Rams have him traveling with teams' No. 1 guy and he is getting exploited that way. He is not a great man-to-man, lockdown corner, so how they use him in this game will be interesting."
These teams are almost identical in ESPN's metrics for offensive and defensive efficiency. Kansas City is first and Los Angeles second on the offensive side. The Chiefs are 23rd and the Rams 24th on the defensive side. Kansas City has the advantage on special teams, ranking first at 75.0 on the 100-point efficiency scale (the Rams are 17th, at 47.6).
Those efficiencies help explain why the over-under opened at 64 points, the highest for an NFL game since at least 1986. Eight of the 20 games involving these teams this season featured 64 to 83 total points, with 58 as the average.
"Kansas City is so dynamic on offense, and with no Cooper Kupp for the Rams, I am going with Kansas City," one of the insiders said.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday: 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox/NFL Network | Point spread: SEA by 2.5 | Insiders pick: SEA (2/3)
The Packers' reconfigured secondary makes this an interesting matchup for reasons that usually do not come to mind when evaluating secondaries.
"Seattle is going to run the ball with physical backs, and the Packers have a bunch of corners playing in their secondary all over the place," one insider said. "Those guys usually do not love tackling. Pete [Carroll] is going to shove the ball right at them and it is going to be a significant challenge, especially in Seattle."
Seattle leads the NFL in most rushes (40) and most rushing yards (254) against teams with more than five defensive backs on the field. The Seahawks' average per carry (6.4) and success rate (43.8 percent) are also good in those matchups. Green Bay has faced the second-most rushes (70) and given up the second-most yards (338) when playing with more than five defensive backs.
"[Kentrell] Brice is clearly their best safety," another insider said. "I think they are now extremely weak at that position after trading [Ha Ha] Clinton-Dix."
The insider picking Green Bay said he thought the Packers were getting enough from their pass rush to put Russell Wilson in difficult situations. Six Green Bay players have combined for 10 sacks in the Packers' past three road games, including five against the Rams in Week 8.
Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have combined for 88 touchdown passes, 23 interceptions, a 99.5 passer rating and 60.7 Total QBR since the start of last season. Football being a team game, those impressive numbers have not translated to victories on a consistent basis. Barring a tie Thursday night, Wilson (13-12) or Rodgers (8-7-1) will be .500 over that span.