Le'Veon Bell was not bluffing. The Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro running back really was willing to sit out the full 2018 season, sacrificing his $14.5 million salary. With the deadline for Bell to report and still play this season passing Tuesday, all parties can turn toward what comes next.
I've spent recent days speaking with NFL execs to gauge what they think Bell will want in a new deal, what he's likely to get, how the Steelers will likely proceed and what other teams could have interest if Bell hits the market as expected.
There was an improbable takeaway: A Steelers team that surely hoped Bell would report early in the season likely entered this week preferring that he stay away, simply because the Pittsburgh offense is performing so well as presently configured.
The Steelers' likely course
The Steelers could place the franchise tag on Bell for a third time for as much as the quarterback tag level, but execs wondered: Why would they want to raise the stakes when Bell's replacement, James Conner, is producing like a Pro Bowler and the team is contending?
The cheaper transition tag provides another option, but the Steelers would pay another kind of price if they used it and then decided against matching another team's offer.
"I do not think they will transition him because if you transition someone and then don't match, you do not get a comp pick," said an exec from another team. "So, if I am them and I have no desire to match, then I'd rather get the comp pick. Just let him leave."
Bell, who turns 27 in February, did not need to report or play this season to qualify for the free agency period beginning in March 2019. He already had the four years of NFL experience required to qualify, which is why the Steelers used the franchise tag to keep him in the first place -- once after the 2016 season and again last offseason.
"They could have solved this in the spring," an exec said. "Tell him that if he reports, you will not transition-tag him. Are you really worried about setting a bad precedent that if you franchise someone twice, you are not transitioning them? It couldn't possibly matter."
Anyone trying to prove that quarterbacks and head coaches drive success far more than elite running backs drive it could point to the 2018 Steelers as an example.
"The winner in all this is the Steelers," a former personnel evaluator said. "They just saved $14.5 million in cap space that will automatically roll over into next year. That is huge money that could be one impact player or two really good players, and they didn't lose any production this year, and they got a running back for the future."
The numbers for Pittsburgh in the following categories in 2018 exceed their best results from any of the previous five seasons, when Bell was contributing on the field:
75.7 offensive efficiency using ESPN's expected points metric
73.0 Total QBR
28.2 offensive points per game
43.8 percent rushing success rate
"Based on how Conner is playing, I don't know why the Steelers would want to bring Bell into the mix of their locker room," another exec said. "If I were them, I would have made sure Bell's agent knew that he didn't need to report for the third [franchise] tag to be valued at the quarterback level. And I would have told them that we weren't going to tag him anyway. Maybe that is what they did."
Destinations for Bell that could make sense
Conversations with execs regarding Bell's value turned into spirited discussions of running back value in general, with some arguing passionately against investing too much in the position when perfectly fine alternatives can be found at a much lower cost, as Conner is proving.
"What teams would pay Le'Veon?" one of these execs asked. "The No. 1 criteria is somebody who wants to hold onto their job and make a big splash. It could be a team where the general manager feels like, 'Hey, I am going to be out of here if we do not win. I'm not worried about the future and look who we were able to sign.' There is no good football reason for paying $15 million a year for a running back, in my opinion."
The favorites
The New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two teams that could plausibly be in that type of situation next offseason, depending on how things shake out.
"It could be someone close to the end who needs the star quality," another exec said.
Or it could be a team with a relatively cheap quarterback and short-term title aspirations -- such as the Houston Texans.
"If you had a great defense, a young quarterback and a team that thinks they are on the verge, that could be interesting," one exec said of Houston. "Would they pay that money?"
Execs mentioned the Philadelphia Eagles as a team that could justify adding a high-profile piece. The Miami Dolphins used to make those types of moves before heading in the opposite direction this past offseason. The Oakland Raiders would not pay Khalil Mack. Would they pay a back? The San Francisco 49ers lost Jerick McKinnon. How will they see themselves with Jimmy Garoppolo returning?
Under-the-radar options
One exec thought Green Bay and Washington were two dark horses to consider.
"The Packers feel good about this guy who ran well the other day," an exec said of Aaron Jones, "but they felt good about 88 [Ty Montgomery], too. They have new management, there is no owner and if [Aaron] Rodgers said, 'Let's get a back in here,' who knows?"
The Redskins have not been huge players in free agency of late despite owner Daniel Snyder's reputation for splashy moves. What if the team thought it was close to getting over the top?
"They have Alex Smith, they are leading the NFC East and depending how they finish, if they think they are close, they could think Bell would help them match up in a division with [Saquon] Barkley and [Ezekiel] Elliott," the exec said. "If they thought they were keeping him away from Philadelphia, that could be a bonus."
There is another consideration. Bell is obviously focused on maximizing his value for the future. Signing with a team located in a state without an income tax could help him do that. Texas and Florida are the two big ones. Nevada is another option, once the Raiders move to Las Vegas.
What Bell will want
Bell has described himself as not just a running back, but also a wide receiver. The top wideouts earn $16-18 million a year, exceeding the $14.5 million value of Bell's franchise tag and the $14.375 million annual average for the Los Angeles Rams' Todd Gurley II, who owns the richest long-term deal at the position.
Bell will presumably ask for more than the four-year, $57.5 million extension Gurley commanded in July on a deal that caught other teams off-guard simply because Gurley had years left on his deal and the Rams appeared preoccupied with a deal for Aaron Donald.
"I see Bell asking for $16-17 million a year," an exec said.
That is more than double what the top running backs were getting until the mechanisms within the franchise tag drove Bell's one-year price to $14.5 million last offseason. Gurley's ability to use that elevated figure as his own baseline for a long-term deal drove an even bigger wedge between the Steelers and Bell.
"Gurley's deal screwed the Steelers," an exec said. "They were betting no backs would get a deal, and so one year at $14.5 million was fine. But the Rams knew Gurley's price would keep climbing in Sean McVay's offense, and they were probably thinking David Johnson would be getting tagged. If you remember, Aaron Donald was holding out, so they were using Gurley to show the locker room they would pay their top guys."
We can debate the merits of the Rams' decision to pay so much for Gurley when he had time remaining on his deal, but the bottom line for Pittsburgh is that Bell's demands became easier to justify once Gurley got paid. That hurt the Steelers.
"It is better if you do your own bad deal than have somebody else do your bad deal for you," an exec said. "You can choose your poison. You can get the parts out of it that are paramount to you and give them things you really don't care about as much, whatever those might be. That is what the Rams did with Gurley, and now here we are with Bell."
What Bell will get
There could be a big difference between what most teams think Bell should get and what one team might be willing to pay him.
The argument that Bell transcends the running back position could be challenging to support.
Bell was one of 13 running backs and 124 total players with at least 1,000 yards receiving from 2015 to '17. Of those 124 players, Bell ranked in the bottom seven for air yards per attempt, explosive reception rate, receiving touchdowns and yards per reception. He ranked no better than 11th among the 13 running backs in those categories despite being a consensus elite back who is a game-plan consideration for opponents.
"I think Le'Veon gets four years and $60 million with half of it guaranteed," a veteran contract negotiator said. "They will dress it up with a bunch of other stuff and the numbers will look bigger, but that will be the essence of the deal."
That is slightly more than what Gurley is getting on his extension, but less than what top receivers get. It would be a good deal, but not a game-changing one.
"When the deal is announced in mid-March, with whatever team it is, we know with 100 percent certainty that the first thing we read, cosmetically, it is going to be a really good deal," a former team exec said. "The first-wave reaction is going to be that it worked out well for Bell. Take that to the bank. But what is the real contract?"
Unlike Gurley, Bell would be an unrestricted free agent under this scenario. That would increase his leverage among teams willing to set aside concerns such as the three-game suspension Bell served in 2016 for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.
"It does not make football sense to sign a running back at $15 million a year, especially since it would be with a new team, and Bell would not have earned it with that team," an exec said. "In this league, if you have the quarterback and the coaching staff, the running back can be plugged in. Why pay triple when all around the league you see cheaper backs producing?"
The exec then paused.
"Give me somebody who is in jeopardy of losing their job," he said. "That is a team that will do it."