LOS ANGELES -- Jared Goff stepped up in the pocket Sunday and delivered an accurate pass over the middle for a 35-yard gain on third-and-15.
It was exactly the type of play coaches and evaluators around the NFL want to see the Los Angeles Rams' third-year starter make as a rite of passage into the upper tiers of the quarterback world.
Goff, whose two touchdown passes helped the Rams hold off the Seattle Seahawks, will take center stage with the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes on Monday Night Football in Week 11. The matchup will feature the two quarterbacks rising the fastest since my 2018 QB Tiers survey was published over the summer.
Ten general managers, five head coaches, 10 coordinators, 10 senior personnel executives, five QB coaches and 10 other coaches/execs comprised the 50-man panel. I re-polled five voters in recent days to see which quarterbacks were rising, falling or simply the most interesting in their eyes. Results and insights follow, but first, a quick refresher on each tier.
Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
Tier 2: Can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Tier 3: A legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.
Tier 4: Could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
Tier 5: Should not start under any circumstances.
Risers
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2018 Tier: 4
Projected 2019 Tier: 1-2
When I asked one QB Tiers voters to update his offseason ballot, he sent back a screenshot of our conversation from the summer.
"I need to reiterate," this message from June emphasized, "I really wanted to make Mahomes a 2, but by criteria, he is a 4."
The fourth tier has been reserved for quarterbacks who either shouldn't be starting for a full season or haven't played enough for anyone to realistically evaluate them. Mahomes had made only one start, so voters placed him into the fourth tier as a matter of procedure. I probably should have excluded him from the survey to avoid confusion, but we wanted to have every team in the league represented.
Some voters thought before the season that Mahomes would produce at a high level, but no one predicted he would have anything close to 29 touchdown passes, a 9.2-yard average per attempt, a 116.7 passer rating and 85.1 Total QBR through nine games. Even voters who loved Mahomes thought he might throw too many interceptions this season. One said he thought Kansas City would initially miss having steady veteran Alex Smith. Not the case, obviously.
"You always want to see more," a voter said over the weekend, "but you go to his game at New England and you see more. You see him trading score for score with one of the greatest players to ever play. Not bad. He makes plays on schedule, makes plays off schedule, commands the offense. He just has to keep doing it, and he has to have the comeback wins."
Mahomes led a comeback victory at Denver. He has played so well to this point that Kansas City hasn't needed many comebacks.
"He is playing like a one," another voter said. "I knew he was going to be great, but I didn't know he was going to be this great this early. He is pretty special. I think he is Aaron Rodgers with a [warmer] personality. He makes the same throws. There are only a couple guys that can do it with accuracy and velocity from any arm slot."
Just as there is the Sean McVay factor with Goff, there is the Andy Reid factor with Mahomes. And the Kareem Hunt factor, the Tyreek Hill factor, the Sammy Watkins factor, the Travis Kelce factor, etc.
"Reid's offense is quarterback-friendly, and they get a good visual before letting it go," another voter said. "When [Donovan] McNabb left him, McNabb all of a sudden couldn't play quarterback in the NFL. You know what, though? You can go ahead and make Mahomes a one. I think he's like [Brett] Favre. They have that mentality, the short memory. The other thing I really like about Mahomes -- and obviously they are 8-1 [now 9-1], so that helps -- the guy is having fun. The kid is spinning it all over the field, and he has a big smile on his face."
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
2018 Tier: 3
Projected 2019 Tier: 2
Goff has picked up where he left off last season, which is what some QB Tiers voters wanted to see before pushing him into the second tier.
"I don't want to compare him to Hall of Fame guys, but sometimes you see him Joe Montana-ish with his placement, accuracy and just putting the ball where it needs to go," one evaluator said. "For the Rams, it is all tied in with the coach, the runner playing as well as he is playing and then having that accurate quarterback."
Evaluating Goff as a rookie in 2016 required adjusting for a worst-case scenario in terms of all-around support. Evaluating Goff now requires adjusting for the perfect situation. How would he perform if everything around him were average? The Rams have no way of knowing, and no plans to find out, although rewarding quarterbacks with expensive second contracts is usually a sure way to find out, given the drain it puts on other resources.
For now, Goff will be making the best of a great situation.
"Their run game ties to their pass game, so when he is making these throws, they are very accurate, but he is getting them with some big windows because of that run game," another voter said.
All agreed that next frontier for Goff is demonstrating over time an ability to thrive on third down and when the Rams are trailing.
"It is a perfect marriage between quarterback and playcaller," another voter said. "That is the most important relationship in any NFL building. It is even more powerful when the playcaller is the head coach. You can put Goff as a solid two. I have not seen enough come-from-behind work. It is a process. You work on that area, you have a chance to become a one."
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
2018 Tier: bottom of 2
Projected 2019 Tier: middle of 2
Voters placed Watson at the very bottom of the second tier heading into the season (he and Jimmy Garoppolo got more votes in the second tier than any other, but their overall averages were more in line with upper reaches of the third tier).
Voters liked what they saw from Watson as a rookie, but they wanted to see how he bounced back from a torn ACL. They weren't sure he could hold up for a full season while playing behind a weak offensive line and inviting punishment with his playing style.
Some also thought Watson's interceptions might spike based on how willingly he threw passes into coverage. Watson's interception rate has actually fallen this season.
"The guy is just a playmaker," an evaluator who placed Watson in the second tier said. "He can look bad, and then when they need a play made, he will make one. He is dangerous out of the pocket -- he is looking to throw, not run, and he is accurate when he is outside the pocket. The problem is he takes too many hits. He could wear down."
Watson's numbers through nine games this season are in line with his numbers in the six-plus games he played last season. His completion percentage is a little higher. His yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating are about the same. His adjusted net yards per attempt is identical. His QBR is lower because he has added less value as a rusher while taking costlier sacks.
Another voter placed Watson in the fourth tier heading into the season not as a slight, but because he didn't think there was enough information. This voter also stressed after watching Watson in multiple games that the quarterback gets hit too frequently. ESPN charting shows Watson's contact rate above 20 percent, behind only Josh Allen and Marcus Mariota this season. Those QBs have already missed time.
"Can Watson win playing like that? [Cam] Newton proves he can, if he can hold up," this voter said. "You can go back to Steve Young or Brett Favre and a bunch of guys who do a lot of things off-schedule early in their careers. They don't yet have an appreciation for timing and how fast the NFL defenders are."
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
2018 Tier: 3
Projected 2019 Tier: 3
Two of the five voters moved up Dalton one tier. One of those voters elevated him into the second. The other moved him from the fourth into the third.
There has been no fundamental shift in how coaches and evaluators view Dalton, however. Voters either think he belongs in the lower second or upper third tier as a quarterback who produces at a second-tier level when the supporting cast around him is strong enough.
"They have lost games because of their defense, not because of him," one voter said before the Bengals' 51-14 defeat Sunday. "He is seeing things, trusting and delivering it pretty accurately. Now we are in November, and the weather is going to change. If he finishes as a two, they will go to the playoffs. If he reverts to a three, they will not."
Fallers
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Tier: 3
Projected 2019 Tier: 3-4
All five voters dropped Winston into the fourth tier, which means they see him as someone best suited as a backup. The Buccaneers agreed when they benched Winston.
"He loves to throw it to the other team," one voter said. "That doesn't work in this league at any level. He is obviously frustrating his head coach."
Winston's 10 interceptions on 148 attempts this season equates to a 6.8 interception rate. That is the highest single-season rate for a player with at least 148 attempts since Gus Frerotte had 12 picks on 167 attempts (7.2 percent) in 2007.
"From the crab-legs incident in college to the Uber incident in the NFL, can he come back from that?" another voter said. "He should sign with someone like Kansas City. Come be Mahomes' backup and see if Andy Reid can revive him and then trade him for a pick."
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2018 Tier: 3
Projected 2019 Tier: 3
Three of the five voters dropped Prescott by one tier, but their new votes produced an average basically in line with the average for the full contingent of 50 voters this past summer.
"He is playing like a four," one of the voters said. "I've studied him, and he is not accurate enough from the pocket. He needs play-action throws with big windows. The offense right now doesn't fit him. They are trying to make him a pure pocket passer."
Prescott reached the season's midpoint with a QBR just below 50, which represents average.
"Is it him or having no weapons?" another voter asked. "He has no center, he lost his already struggling rookie guard and their weapons were so bad, they gave up a first-round pick for Amari Cooper."
I asked this voter whether the criticisms about accuracy from the pocket were fair.
"Yes, I think that's fair, so probably off this year, he is a three," this voter said. "I don't think he can ever become a one, but I think he can be a two."
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
2018 Tier: 2
Projected 2019 Tier: 3, with a chance to go lower
Two years ago, when a sizable chunk of voters saw Carr as a talented young player with a shot at ascending toward the top tier, a small group of detractors steadfastly contended he would always wilt under pressure. That was the knock on Carr coming out of college: He wouldn't stand tough in the pocket against the rush, some said -- and that is the knock on him now. One voter said he saw Carr "flinching" late in a recent game against Indianapolis.
"He gets the ball with three minutes left [against Indy] and goes checkdown, checkdown, checkdown, and then on fourth down, he throws a corner route 8 yards out of bounds," a different voter said. "There are a lot of ways to lead as a quarterback, and you don't have to be vocal. Part of it is the linemen see the physical toughness in the quarterback and how he responds. Derek Carr can throw the ball as pretty as anyone, but so could Jeff George."
There are, of course, huge mitigating factors. Carr is adjusting to a new offensive scheme without anything close to the supporting casts that have helped Goff and Mahomes light up scoreboards. Carr's head coach has dismantled the roster. His aging offensive line has fallen apart. Running back Marshawn Lynch is out. The Raiders' defense is terrible.
"No one says it's easy to play for Jon Gruden, including the guys who played for him," another voter said. "You can plausibly understand where this young man is probably being handled in a more strict and directive way. It takes some adjustment."
This voter watched the end of the Indy game and wasn't as alarmed as some others.
"I got to look at that San Francisco game last week," this voter said. "Carr is climbing the pocket and getting immediately sacked. When the tackle is beat cleanly and you step up and your guards get driven back and the world closes in on you and you are pinched like a piece of ham in a sandwich, I'm pretty sure about 29 of 32 quarterbacks go down."
One of the five voters initially left Carr in the second tier.
"I might be late to react," he explained, "but a guy rarely falls from grace like that without some sort of external catastrophe."
This voter then called back after watching Carr throw the ball away on fourth down in the late going against Indy. It was enough for him to drop Carr into the third tier for now.
Eli Manning, New York Giants
2018 Tier: 3
Projected 2019 Tier: 4
Four of the five voters dropped Manning by one tier. Their overall criticisms were not as pointed as I was anticipating.
"I've seen him throw some go routes where you are like, 'Damn, that is like the old Eli, not Old Eli,'" this voter said. "I do think he needs to be replaced there, but I think he can be a three on another team."
Manning's 39.8 QBR is his lowest through eight games since 2006, the first year QBR data was available. His yards per attempt (7.6) is his highest through eight games since 2012. His passes have gained more than 15 yards on 15.9 percent of attempts, his highest eight-game rate since 2011. But his 2.5 percent rate of touchdowns is by far his lowest.
"He is playing like a four right now," another voter said. "I am not as down on him as some. I think it is a combination of a lot of things. The protection is awful, and it is showing up. Eli will never be a two again, but I do think he can be a three, and I think you can still win with him. I was watching their offense the other day and a lot of their problems are up front."
Quarterbacks of interest
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
2018 Tier: 2
Projected 2019 Tier: 2
When a quarterback struggles under a new coordinator, sometimes we point to a natural adjustment period requiring months, not weeks. Newton has mostly flourished from the beginning under new Panthers coordinator Norv Turner. Voters credited Newton for playing well and Turner for adjusting his scheme.
In reversing a decline in efficiency over the past couple of seasons, Newton has re-established his footing.
"Cam is doing better in the passing game, and he is still such a threat because of how big he is," one voter said. "What he did in Philly and the next couple games was really impressive. Michael Bennett is wrapped around him on that fourth-down play where he throws it to Torrey Smith. He jumps in the air to throw it, Bennett unloads on him and Cam was still on his feet."
Newton has achieved career bests through nine games for touchdown passes (17), interceptions (five), touchdown rate (5.8 percent), interception rate (1.7 percent), passer rating (101.2), sacks (17) and sack rate (5.5 percent). His QBR (61.4) is the second highest of his career.
Despite those numbers, big plays through the air have been scarce. Newton's air yards and yards per completion are career lows through nine games. One voter suggested that could change later in the season if the offensive line situation improves.
"They are playing with a left tackle they signed off the street and their backup right tackle," a voter said.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
2018 Tier: 4
Projected 2019 Tier: 3-4
Trubisky was one of eight quarterbacks whose votes did not change on any of the five voters' ballots. Four of those voters had him in the fourth tier. One had him in the third. Shouldn't they be scrambling to update their thoughts on him? Trubisky has 19 touchdown passes with seven picks this season after finishing 2017 with seven of each. His QBR has more than doubled to 75.1, his passer rating is in triple digits and the Bears are in the playoff hunt.
That sounds like a recipe for jumping into the third tier next offseason, despite misgivings now.
"One difference between Trubisky and Mahomes is that Mahomes' accuracy on the deep ball is elite, whereas Trubisky has guys open downfield and misses them," one voter said. "He will struggle to get consistency there unless he really puts in the work in the offseason. The game I watched, he had seam routes and the receiver just looked at it as it sailed over his head."
This could be a situation in which voters are crediting new Bears coach Matt Nagy for getting much better production from a quarterback they think has limitations despite the impressive results in games such as Sunday, when Trubisky passed for 355 yards and three scores with a 94.1 QBR against Detroit.
"He has a good playcaller, and I think the needle is pointing up for him," another voter said. "Like a lot of the young ones, he loves to run and gain yards with his legs. He has to understand that is a dangerous game. I think his ceiling is a three because I question his accuracy and anticipation, but Matt [Nagy] can scheme it up for him and scheme guys open."
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
2018 Tier: 2
Projected 2019 Tier: 1-2
Two voters already had Luck in the top tier despite his recent injury issues. A third moved him from the second tier to the first based on Luck's production this season. Others felt as though Luck had re-established himself as a two, on his way to the top tier in the future.
"It doesn't always look like he trusts his deep ball yet, but they also need to get some guys who are more explosive after the catch," one voter said. "I broke down their Raider game and I think Dontrelle Inman had six catches. The guy just came off the street! I mean, Luck is throwing to Dontrelle Inman and Jack Doyle, and they are putting up 40-some points."
The Colts have upgraded their offensive line significantly through the draft. Luck, like Newton, is throwing shorter passes overall. Luck is taking fewer hits, and his rate of explosive passes has increased since the first few games of the season.
"They really got the ball out fast early in the year, but now their line is a little more settled, [Frank] Reich is a little more settled, and it is showing," another voter said. "You can really see where they are headed."
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
2018 Tier: bottom of 2
Projected 2019 Tier: 3-4
One voter asked how many ultimately successful quarterbacks kept getting hurt after short stints in the starting lineup. Garoppolo lasted fewer than two starts in 2016 when he was with New England and fewer than three starts with San Francisco this season.
"I still think he will end up being a three, and he might push higher than that," one voter said, "but he played like a four this season, and now he is hurt. This is a young quarterback who should be a four based on the small sample size and the injuries. We need to see more."