Back in the preseason, one of the biggest storylines in the NFL was the imbalance between the two conferences. The NFC was filled with playoff contenders: not just the six teams that made last season's playoffs, but teams that had made the postseason just a year before, such as Green Bay, Dallas and Seattle. In the AFC, like in most recent years, the primary debate was New England vs. Pittsburgh. Some experts liked the upstart Jaguars, and the Chargers and Chiefs had their fans as well. But among the football commentariat, the dominance of the NFC over the AFC was decided by near-acclamation.
At Football Outsiders, our preseason forecast was no different. The NFC had eight of the top 12 teams in our preseason projections. But look now at our DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings for the 2018 season so far. We have the AFC with six of the top 10 teams. With the exception of Chicago, most of the surprise teams this season are in the AFC. After all, did you expect Miami and Cincinnati to be 4-2, or the Jets 3-3?
Six of the teams in our preseason NFC top eight are currently sitting at 3-2-1 or worse. Which of these teams has the best chance to turn things around and make it to the postseason? We've taken a look at all six below, ranked in order by their chances of making the playoffs according to the latest Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, explained fully here. (For those curious, the other two teams in our preseason NFC top eight were the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints.)
Green Bay Packers
Playoff chances: 47.6 percent
The difference in playoff chances between Green Bay and Minnesota comes down to a question of how much stock to put in a single game. Minnesota's worst performance of the season came in a 27-6 loss to Buffalo, back in Week 3. Green Bay's best performance of the season came in a 22-0 victory over that same Buffalo team, one week later.
Right now, our DVOA ratings have the Packers 14th and the Vikings 21st. Take out those two games, and the teams would essentially switch places, with the Vikings moving up to 15th and the Packers moving down to 19th.
Nonetheless, those two games matter. The Bills have one of the top defenses in the NFL, and it matters that the Packers gained 5.7 net yards per play against them while the Vikings were at just 4.4. And it matters that the Vikings allowed 4.7 net yards per play to the impotent Buffalo offense while the Packers held the Bills to just 2.6 net yards per play. These games do help us determine how good each team is going forward.
There's been a lot of attention paid to Green Bay's next two games, which are very difficult: at the Rams and then at the Patriots. But things get much easier after this next stretch of four road games in five weeks. The Packers' schedule in Weeks 8-12 ranks fourth in the NFL ... but their schedule in Weeks 13-17 ranks 30th.
Seattle Seahawks
Playoff chances: 43.1 percent
Our preseason projections had Seattle as the lowest of these six supposed NFC contenders. But six weeks into the season, despite the 3-3 record, the Seahawks are the best of these six teams by DVOA. Their offense and special teams have been average, but their defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL, trailing just Chicago, Baltimore and Buffalo.
Now the question is whether the Seahawks can keep up this defensive performance without All-Pro safety Earl Thomas. Seattle had its best defensive game of the season against Oakland in Sunday's London matchup. But it sure helped that Derek Carr attempted only two passes more than 10 yards downfield, and completed only two passes more than 5 yards downfield. Other quarterbacks aren't going to be so reluctant to throw downfield on the Seahawks. Meanwhile, Seattle's two worst defensive performances of the season came in the previous two games, the game where Thomas was injured and its first game without him.
Unlike the teams of the NFC North and East, the Seahawks are just playing for a wild-card spot at this point. They only win the division in 4.7 percent of simulations (it would require a massive Rams collapse) but win a wild card in 38.5 percent of simulations. One advantage for Seattle: The Seahawks have already played four of their road games, meaning they have six home games left and only four on the road. Four of their final five games of the season are at CenturyLink Field.
Philadelphia Eagles
Playoff chances: 40.7 percent
Philadelphia won the Super Bowl last season with a balanced team, but this season the Eagles are balanced ... in mediocrity. The Eagles are close to average in all three phases of the game.
Philadelphia's offensive DVOA has gone up each week since Carson Wentz returned. If we looked only at the three most recent games, the Eagles would be 12th in offensive DVOA instead of 19th. But the defense is going in the other direction. If we removed Philly's opening game against Atlanta and looked only at the past five weeks, the defense would rank 20th in defensive DVOA instead of 11th. (The third phase, special teams, ranks 18th.)
One reason the Eagles have come back to earth this season is that they are no longer getting extreme positive outcomes in the most important situations. Last season, the Eagles were among the best passing games we had ever tracked in two major splits: passing on third down and in the red zone. So far this season, the Eagles are just eighth passing on third down and just 15th passing in the red zone.
Dallas Cowboys
Playoff chances: 40.6 percent
The Dallas passing game is a wreck, but everything else on this team is lifting the Cowboys up to contender status. The running game still ranks ninth in DVOA and got a jump-start in Week 6 when the coaches remembered they could use Dak Prescott as a runner too. The defense ranks 13th in DVOA and is particularly strong (fifth in the league) against the run.
The Eagles are better than the Cowboys in overall DVOA, but the Cowboys do have an advantage in strength of schedule. The Eagles' remaining opponents rank 14th, while the Cowboys' remaining opponents rank 28th. Dallas gets to play New Orleans at home while Philadelphia travels there; Philly has to go to Los Angeles to play the Rams; and the Eagles have to play the two higher-rated AFC South teams (Houston/Jacksonville) while the Cowboys played lower-rated Indianapolis and Tennessee.
With the NFC East race so tight right now, every division game matters significantly. Both the Cowboys and Eagles are 1-0 in the division, having both beaten the New York Giants. Sunday's game in Washington is really important for Dallas; the Cowboys' playoff odds go up to 57 percent in simulations where they win this game and drop to 26.5 percent in simulations where they lose.
Minnesota Vikings
Playoff chances: 37.1 percent
As noted earlier, Minnesota's playoff chances are tied closely to Green Bay's. Unlike the Packers, who have already played half their NFC North schedule (1-1-1), Minnesota's division schedule is all squeezed into the final part of the season, with five division games from Week 9 through Week 17.
For those who do believe the Buffalo loss was a complete fluke, I did an additional simulation where Minnesota was rated as if the Buffalo game never happened. In that simulation, Minnesota's odds of making the playoffs were up to 46.6 percent, narrowly surpassing the Packers' at 46.1 percent. Chicago's odds in that simulation fell from 74.7 percent to 72.0 percent.
But the Buffalo loss is not the reason for the massive decline in Minnesota's pass defense from last season to this. In 2017, Minnesota ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA and allowed just 5.2 net yards per pass. So far this season, the Vikings rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 7.4 net yards per pass. Take out the Buffalo game and that actually goes up to 7.6 net yards allowed per pass.
Atlanta Falcons
Playoff chances: 11.5 percent
Atlanta is the one preseason contender in the NFC that's basically out of the running at this point, and its fall is all about the defense. Atlanta's offensive DVOA is actually a little bit higher in 2018, 9.5 percent compared to 8.2 percent last season. But the Falcons defense has completely collapsed. The unit currently ranks 31st in DVOA, ahead of only the miserable Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The pass rush ranks 30th in pressure rate, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
If you prefer to measure the Falcons with conventional stats, you can take your pick: They're dead last in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and 29th in yards per play allowed. As an extra bonus, the Falcons even have an above-average number of defensive penalties.
Can the Falcons turn this defense around? It's a huge problem that they've lost three starters to injury, and two of them aren't coming back: cornerback Ricardo Allen (Achilles tendon) and safety Keanu Neal (ACL). Linebacker Deion Jones might be able to return from his foot injury in the second half of the season, which should help with the problem of giving up big gains to running backs in the passing game. But by then, the Falcons will probably be completely out of the playoff race.
Methodology
The Football Outsiders playoff chances simulation plays out the rest of the season 30,000 times, determining each team's chances of winning each game based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, which measure success on each play based on down-and-distance and then compare that to a league-average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. You can find the full Football Outsiders playoff chances report, including the chances of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our numbers will be different than playoff chances you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com because each set of team ratings is computed differently.