Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 7's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Can the Chargers win the AFC West? How many more games will Eli Manning start this season? Who will take home the NFC East?
What's your top upset pick for Week 7?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Browns +3 over Buccaneers. I'll take Baker Mayfield in a matchup against a zone-based Tampa defense giving up a league-worst 355.6 passing yards per game. Expect seam routes and scripted deep ball throws. And Mayfield could have some short fields to work with on Sunday if the Browns' opportunistic defense can create pressure versus Jameis Winston.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Titans +6.5 over Chargers. I don't understand why the Saints are underdogs in Baltimore, but I'm not taking them because I figure there's a midweek correction coming there. No, my obsession with regression to the mean leads me to Tennessee, which hasn't yet done a thing on offense, over the Chargers, who did whatever they wanted to do on offense Sunday. This league is nuts and the Chargers will have been away from home for a week and a half. I think Tennessee can win a 12-9 type of game if everybody comes out lackluster, which is possible in a London game.
Mina Kimes, senior writer: Browns +3 over Buccaneers. Winston will make some explosive plays, but look for the Browns' defense to take advantage of his risky decision-making. Meanwhile, Mayfield should bounce back against a Tampa Bay defense with the sixth-worst sack rate in the league.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Cardinals +2.5 over Broncos. I liked the way Arizona's defense competed against Minnesota and think there could be opportunities for turnovers at home against Case Keenum and the Broncos. The big concern is whether Arizona can get enough going offensively.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Cowboys +1.5 over Redskins. In Week 6, the Cowboys played the best football we've seen from them in a long time with a formula reminiscent of 2016: dominant rushing from the tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott matched by efficient Prescott throwing. Washington has consecutive quality home wins (Green Bay and Carolina), but if taken off-schedule, the offense struggles to generate much output.
The Chargers have a _____ percent chance to win the AFC West.
Bowen: 42 percent. The Chiefs are the favorite after six weeks of the season with a Big 12-level offense, and I am even more impressed with Patrick Mahomes after he worked through some in-game adversity during tough road trips to Denver and New England. But I like this Chargers squad. Philip Rivers is slinging the ball, the versatility of Melvin Gordon pops and this L.A. defense will get even stronger when Joey Bosa returns to the lineup. There's a long way to go before we crown a champ in the West.
Graziano: 38.9 percent. The Chiefs weren't themselves Sunday night in Foxborough, but who ever is? They're still the favorites, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers right now by virtue of their Week 1 head-to-head victory. But while I picked the Chargers to be my upset victim above, I believe in them long-term as a playoff team with a decent chance to win the West if Mahomes and the Chiefs stumble.
Kimes: 30 percent. The Chargers are a much more balanced team than the Chiefs, but Kansas City's offense is too potent to seize up like it did in 2017. Plus, while Los Angeles' defense is vastly superior, the Chargers' special teams, per usual, are dismal -- and the Chiefs' unit ranks first in the league.
Sando: 40 percent. ESPN's FPI gives the Chargers a 25 percent chance, but I'm taking the over on that. Their special teams were a disaster last season and against the Chiefs in Week 1. However, they have performed in the decent-to-good range on special teams four times in six games this season, which is how they rank a halfway-respectable 18th in ESPN's special-teams efficiency metric from Week 2 forward. Overall, the Chargers have a league-high three games this season in which their offense, defense and special teams were all 50 or higher on ESPN's 100-point efficiency scale.
Yates: 20 percent. It's only a one-game gap, but factoring in whom these teams have played so far (K.C. has three wins against opponents with .500 or better records, while the Chargers have zero) and who is left to play, the Chiefs are decided favorites in my book. The Chiefs' Week 1 win in Los Angeles looms large down the stretch, as does their special-teams advantage. Kicker Harrison Butker gives them a close-game weapon. That's been an area of struggle for the Chargers for quite some time.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Corey Davis, WR, Titans. After catching 9 of 15 targets for 161 yards and a score in the Week 4 game vs. the Eagles, Davis has posted just five grabs on 10 targets for 73 yards in his past two games. I love Davis' talent, but this Titans offense is still searching for a true identity under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. And Davis will drop down to the WR3/WR4 range in a Week 7 matchup vs. the Chargers.
Graziano: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. It was a big return for Ingram in Week 5 before the Saints' bye, and in the long term I expect the Saints' running game to look like it did in 2017. But the Ravens have been one of the toughest teams in the league in limiting fantasy production from running backs. If a Saints back is to have a big game in Week 7, I'm betting it's Alvin Kamara after his down week in Week 5.
Kimes: Alex Collins, RB, Ravens. The Saints' defense has been up and down this season, but it has been surprisingly stout against the run, allowing opposing backs an NFL-low 3.08 yards per rush attempt. I'd expect the Ravens to lean more heavily on the pass in this game, limiting opportunities for Collins.
Sando: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans. Watson's first career start against the Jaguars falls on the road against a talented defense that badly needs a bounce-back performance following a brutal game at Dallas.
Darren Woodson discusses the quarterback situation in New York, saying that the time is coming for the Giants to sit Eli Manning.
Yates: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos. Thomas has what looks like back-to-back strong performances (two touchdowns in as many games), but he has scored when down by 10 or more and with just minutes left in games that were essentially out of reach. It's been a less effective start to the season than most anticipated for this offense.
Over/under 9.5 more starts for Eli Manning with the Giants this season?
Bowen: Over. Yeah, Manning looks shaky in the pocket behind that suspect Giants offensive line. But is Pat Shurmur really going to turn the ball over to Alex Tanney or Kyle Lauletta? With a four-game stretch coming up versus the Falcons, Redskins, 49ers and Bucs, Manning will see more favorable matchups.
Graziano: Over. Eli gets the rest of the year, at least. There just isn't another strong option on the roster with Tanney being the backup and untested fourth-rounder Lauletta running third on the depth chart. Besides, the schedule in the second half gets a lot easier for Manning and the Giants, beginning with Atlanta's wreck of a defense on Monday Night Football in Week 7.
Kimes: Over. What's the alternative? Unless Lauletta has been lighting it up in practice, expect the Giants to stick with Manning for the rest of the season, which, according to Football Outsiders, offers New York the easiest slate of opponents in the NFL.
Sando: Over. The next few games provide Manning and the Giants with some opportunities to fare better in the passing game. They did produce through the air against Carolina a couple of weeks ago. Even if they struggle late, I think they'll get deep enough into the year where letting Manning play out the season will seem like the best course.
Yates: Over. Some of this traces back to, in my opinion, the unceremonious benching of Manning last season in favor of Geno Smith. Fans are deservedly restless over Manning's performance and many are already clamoring for a change, but with no obvious heir apparent on the roster, don't look for the G-Men to hastily switch out Manning.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 7.
Bowen: Taylor Gabriel, WR, Bears. In his past two games, Gabriel has caught 12 of 12 targets for 214 yards and two touchdowns. His deep-ball speed jumps, and Matt Nagy is going to draw up some opportunities for Gabriel on defined reads for Mitchell Trubisky. With some wide receiver screens sprinkled in and an occasional rushing attempt on a jet sweep, Gabriel has Flex/WR3 value this week in a matchup versus the Patriots in which Trubisky will have to throw the ball to keep the Bears in the mix.
Graziano: Royce Freeman, RB, Broncos. Phillip Lindsay has been the better back, but Freeman is no slouch. In a short-week game in which the Broncos might finally be playing while ahead, Freeman should see a lot of looks against an Arizona defense that's been permissive to opposing backs in fantasy points (and one of the stingiest against opposing wide receivers). The Broncos have to run the ball if they're going to end their four-game losing streak.
Kimes: David Njoku, TE, Browns. Given how decimated Cleveland's receiving corps is right now, I expect Mayfield to lean more heavily on Njoku, who scored a touchdown and was targeted 12 times on Sunday. The Bucs are a great matchup, as they've allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season.
Sando: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts. He cracked double figures in PPR scoring against the Jets in his first game back from injury. Indy has been eager to get Mack going and should have an expanded role for him after Mack made it through Week 6 without aggravating his hamstring.
Yates: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. With Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger on byes and some difficult matchups for normal starters elsewhere, many will be looking for a fill-in quarterback. No team has allowed more passing yards per game than the Bucs this season, and no team has allowed more touchdown passes than their 16 surrendered, despite the fact that they already have had their bye week. It's the ultimate matchup for a quarterback and a calculated gamble on Mayfield, who has at least 40 attempts in all three starts.
Who's going to win the NFC East (and what will the team's record be)?
Bowen: Eagles, 10-6. The Eagles' early-season film reflected poor execution on both sides of the ball, from the offensive line play to issues in the secondary. But after they beat the Giants in a convincing Week 6 win, I'm going to bet on the Eagles' talent and coaching to hold off the Cowboys in a division race that will be decided in late December.
Graziano: Cowboys, 9-7. The Eagles are the easy pick, especially after looking so good Thursday. But of their remaining 10 games, only one is against the Giants. They have out-of-division home games against Carolina, Jacksonville and Houston -- no pushovers there -- and road games against the Saints and Rams, plus two each against Dallas and Washington. Tough schedule. I think Dallas has a shot to eke out an ugly division title if it can win a road game or two.
Kimes: Eagles, 10-6. This week, the Super Bowl champs finally looked like they did last season, especially in the trenches. The remaining schedule isn't a breeze, but they're still the class of the division.
Sando: Eagles, 9-7. The remaining schedules for Dallas, Washington and the Giants rank among the NFL's five easiest by opponent winning percentages. Philly's remaining schedule is one of the three most difficult. I'll still bet on Carson Wentz, the Eagles' pass rush and their coaching to prevail. ESPN's FPI agrees, giving Philly a 47 percent shot at winning the division, ahead of Dallas (37 percent), Washington (25 percent) and the Giants (less than 2 percent).
Yates: Eagles, 10-6. The Eagles had an offensive ground game spark in Week 6, but perhaps the most important area to focus on with Philly is the secondary. Safety Rodney McLeod being placed on injured reserve is no small order to overcome, but I've got my eyes on this current stretch. Philly next plays on the road on Nov. 18. Look for the Eagles to separate from the pack soon.