John Adams, Patrick Henry, John Hancock and Thomas Paine were younger than the currently 41-year-old Tom Brady when they signed the Declaration of Independence.
As Brady's victorious performance against the previously 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs showed Sunday night, this ageless Founding Father of the New England Patriots' dynasty might play MVP-caliber football into his mid-40s. If Brady does, great for him. Great for the Patriots. Good for the NFL. Bad for the rest of the AFC.
What if Brady is human? What if we're seeing the last couple of years of the New England dynasty? It's the question we keep asking.
"Holding on to dynasty is Patriots' next challenge," a New York Times headline read ... in February 2005!
Year after year, analysts have wondered whether losing Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Randy Moss and so many other notables might trigger the Patriots' demise. However, the NFL's self-evident truths hold that unless you're the Joe Gibbs-era Washington Redskins, the head coach and quarterback are the irreplaceable pillars in the modern dynasty. Everything else changes over time.
That is why Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs appear better positioned than their AFC peers to fill the void if the Patriots' dynasty runs its course anytime soon. They check the all-important head coach and quarterback boxes. With input from NFL execs, I've stacked the Patriots' 15 AFC challengers by their prospects for building the next dynasty. Some of the better teams today lag in the rankings.
The heir
Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots are not your great-grandmother leaving her savings account to you in her will. When their dynasty crumbles, other teams will benefit, but the odds are against another team succeeding on the same level. There will be no heir to the Patriots' greatness, only a better opportunity to achieve some measure of greatness once they slip.
Brady and Belichick put New England on the dynastic map with three Super Bowl titles in four seasons from 2001 to 2004. Those Patriots posted a 48-16 (.750) record during those regular seasons. They have won at an even higher rate (.770) after that three-year burst of dynastic dominance.
Reid's Philadelphia Eagles matched the Belichick-Brady Patriots in winning percentage when New England was winning those three Super Bowls from '01 to '04. His 2004 Eagles were tied with the Patriots entering the fourth quarter of one of those Super Bowls. It's not a stretch to say Reid's Eagles were the next best thing to New England in those days.
Reid's Chiefs are the next best thing now. They were 2-14 the year before Reid arrived in 2013. They are second to New England in winning percentage since then, and it's not as if they lucked into a quarterback, 2012 Colts-style. Kansas City held the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 and drafted tackle Eric Fisher. The 11 quarterbacks drafted that year -- EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, B.J. Daniels and Sean Renfree -- have combined for a 42.7 Total QBR.
Reid went out and got Alex Smith instead. Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Smith all reached or exceeded reasonable projections while with Reid. Mahomes' first seven starts have affirmed what Reid has demonstrated throughout his career: Reid is the rare coach who has won at a high rate with multiple teams and multiple quarterbacks over extended periods.
"There's only one coach in the AFC that I'd trust to develop a quarterback, and that is Andy Reid," a former general manager said. "There aren't a lot of guys who have his track record in that area."
While Reid and Mahomes give the Chiefs the brightest outlook, there are still uncertainties.
Brett Veach is a first-year GM, so there isn't much of a track record with him in that role. Will he and Reid be able to restock the defensive roster? Could there be changes to the defensive staff?
"We are in the here-and-now moment, so we are captivated," another evaluator said. "Mahomes deserves credit, but three years from now, what will he be? Better? Worse? This is a really good exercise, but a lot can change, too."
The second cut
Los Angeles Chargers
Head coach Anthony Lynn is less established than some of his counterparts, but with former head coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Gus Bradley as coordinators, coaching looks like a strength overall. And with Philip Rivers becoming increasingly efficient following some turnover-prone years, I'm buying the Chargers' prospects over other flagship organizations in the AFC.
"It seems with the running back [Melvin Gordon] playing well and Mike Williams having a better year, they are a little different than some of the other teams," an evaluator said. "They have [Joey] Bosa. They have some good young talent. I'm not sure Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the influx of young talent that [Los Angeles] does. They have hit on some picks."
Rivers is 36, which is a concern when projecting dynastic potential, but his quick release and quicker mind should help him endure. Kurt Warner was humming along as an anticipatory thrower in his age-37 and age-38 seasons before concussive hits convinced him to retire. Rule changes and a running game should help Rivers endure longer.
The Chargers have serious questions surrounding their kicking situation. Like the Chiefs, their question marks are the kind organizations aspire to have. They have some key pieces in place to contend for several years and could overtake the Chiefs if their defense gets healthier.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers might have their own dynasty going right now were it not for the Patriots. They own the NFL's second-best winning percentage (.658) since New England's dynasty was born in 2001. They have the head coach and quarterback to rank higher on this list, but other factors make them a little harder to bet on.
"I think they are going the wrong way," an exec said. "How long does Ben [Roethlisberger] have left? The running back [Le'Veon Bell] is going to leave. Antonio Brown is 30 and will come back to earth at some point. I don't feel quite as good about them as I have in the past."
Bell appears headed elsewhere after this season if the Steelers do not trade him before then. Ryan Shazier's prospects for returning are in question. Roethlisberger remains productive at age 36, but he has missed games in each of the past three seasons. Unlike Rivers, he has publicly contemplated retirement. Was that just Ben being Ben? Or could he walk away if the Steelers were to decline?
"The question about the QB longer term is the biggest one," an evaluator said. "Maybe Mason Rudolph is the guy. I really like him, but he is unproven, and they don't have Andy Reid there to develop him."
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are implementing a deliberate plan as they transition from GM Ozzie Newsome to successor Eric DeCosta. They do not have a quarterback as capable as Roethlisberger or Rivers, however, and we haven't seen enough of Lamar Jackson to bet big on his future.
"I see Baltimore a little bit like I see Pittsburgh -- hanging on," a veteran exec said. "Baltimore has some talented guys, but they have some old guys, too. The pass-rusher [Terrell Suggs] is old. [Eric] Weddle is old. [Joe] Flacco is not young. [Michael] Crabtree is their receiver. They are an experienced team that has been there and been to the playoffs, but I'm not sure which way they are trending."
Baltimore sneaks into this group because John Harbaugh is a proven coach, the quarterback situation carries upside and the football operation is stable. Jackson will have to outperform his draft pedigree for there to be anything approaching a dynasty in the future.
"Baltimore should maybe be a little higher," another evaluator said, "because I feel like they have stability with the coach, the front office and potentially the quarterback as far as a transition to Lamar Jackson. They are just a very well-run organization overall. Pittsburgh is similar."
Can factor in by swapping out QB
Jacksonville Jaguars
Beating the Patriots with Blake Bortles completing 29 of 45 passes for 376 yards and four touchdowns in Week 2 left the impression Jacksonville might have turned a corner at quarterback. That was a fleeting impression. Bortles' volatility has contributed to three defeats in the Jaguars' past four games, including 40-7 at Dallas on Sunday.
The Jaguars possess the defensive talent and running-game potential to support a lesser quarterback. They could make a championship run if Bortles were to string together a run of solid games at the right time. That is a recipe for winning a title if things fall right. It is no recipe for a dynasty. Fortunately for the Jaguars, they possess the contractual flexibility to consider other options at quarterback.
"Jacksonville is going to be Jacksonville until they replace Bortles," an exec said. "Now, if they can get a guy, they can be really good. Until they do, they are going to be 9-7, 10-6, I think."
Stuck in a good (but just good) place
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals do a lot of things right. They've maintained a talented roster in recent years. They have a solid coach-quarterback combination in Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton. But you get the feeling they would never trade up 17 spots in the draft to select Mahomes, then trade away their perfectly good veteran starter the way the Chiefs did.
"Cincinnati is going to be Cincinnati," an exec said. "They are going to be pretty talented, but not really good enough."
Dark horse teams to watch
Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck has more pass attempts (305) and one fewer touchdown pass (16) than his career highs through six games, a reflection of how much the Colts need him to bail out a young defense. His return to health gives Indianapolis a chance to build a championship foundation if Frank Reich turns out to be the right coach.
Some evaluators think the Colts' roster needs too much work for them to be listed this high, but I'm not ranking teams by the condition of their 53-man rosters. I'm ranking them based on their potential to contend for multiple Super Bowls down the line, if and when the Patriots decline. Luck's presence on the roster makes that possible if GM Chris Ballard can rebuild the roster sufficiently over the next couple of seasons.
"Luck is still relatively young, and though their defense is in shambles, it is very young right now, so if they do hit on some of those young players, they have a chance," an evaluator said.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold hasn't played enough for anyone to know what the long-term future holds. That's a recipe for optimism in the NFL.
"I think the Jets have a chance," an exec said. "Defensively, they are pretty good, and that quarterback [Darnold] seems to have a knack. They are my dark horse team. They need some skill people, and usually you can get skill people. The receiver and running back can play right away, or you can get a nice free-agent guy to help you quickly."
Houston Texans
Coach Bill O'Brien, quarterback Deshaun Watson and some talented defensive players give the Texans a chance.
"Maybe if Houston doesn't blow up and the quarterback is healthy, they can make a run too," an exec said.
Blow up? The exec was referring to the organizational tumult that marked O'Brien's past with the team. The implication was that O'Brien could be a bit like Jim Harbaugh, an outstanding coach with a shelf life.
Watson had 19 touchdown passes with eight interceptions when a knee injury ended his 2017 rookie season. He has nine touchdowns with seven picks this season and had trouble outscoring a Bills team featuring Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman behind center Sunday.
Cleveland Browns
A dynasty, in Cleveland?
The Browns are obviously an improved team this season. Baker Mayfield gives them some hope at quarterback. But team ownership remains a question mark, and it's unclear what the future holds for coach Hue Jackson.
"The Browns will be back to. 500, but it's way too early there," a former GM said.
Not in the conversation right now
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill has either been injured or average in recent seasons, which means the Dolphins need a contingency plan.
Tennessee Titans
Are the Titans all-in on Marcus Mariota? Should they be? Mariota took 11 sacks in a shutout loss Sunday. The Titans' coaching staff is still in the early stages of establishing itself. Too many questions here.
Buffalo Bills
There are reasons to like second-year head coach Sean McDermott. It's too early to know what will become of Allen.
"I think that guy [McDermott] is a good coach," an exec said, "but the whole plan with the quarterback -- getting rid of the one guy [Tyrod Taylor], going with [Nathan] Peterman last year -- worried me. They are trying to rebuild. We need to see if they know what it takes."
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are rebuilding under Jon Gruden, with most execs expecting them to have a new GM next season. As one exec put it, they look like they're trying to be good in time for their move to Las Vegas.
Denver Broncos
Bad drafts and a succession of struggling quarterbacks could lead to another offseason overhaul for Denver.