ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 6. This week's games: Steelers-Bengals, Chargers-Browns, Bears-Dolphins, Panthers-Redskins and Chiefs-Patriots.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: CIN by 2.5 | Insiders pick: CIN (2/3)
The Steelers are 22-8 against the Bengals during the Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati. They have won the past five in the series without allowing more than 20 points in any of those games. Pittsburgh has held the Bengals to 21 or fewer points in 17 consecutive meetings between the teams. The Steelers are 13-4 in those games.
Does it change this time?
"I don't believe in Pittsburgh's secondary and I think [Andy] Dalton has been playing well," an insider picking the Bengals said. "That running back [Joe Mixon] makes a big difference because he is a real guy. They are a team that nobody really talks about that could shock people. I know everybody has seen this before, but they could do something."
The Bengals have scored at least 27 points in four of their first five games. They have accomplished that only one other time during Lewis' tenure -- in 2015, when the team was cruising along until injuries wiped out key performers, precipitating another playoff collapse.
"Maybe I am not giving Cincy enough credit, but in watching a couple of their games, I think their O-line can be overpowered by Pittsburgh," the insider picking the Steelers said. "Watching Pittsburgh, their defense is playing their asses off. It's not always pretty, and their secondary is exposed at times, but their front seven just plays so hard with Cam Heyward, Stephon Tuitt and those guys. Throw in Bud Dupree and then T.J. Watt coming off the edge with all their blitzing, I'm just waiting for everything to click."
One problem, all agree, has been inconsistent play from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. With Ryan Shazier missing from the defense and Le'Veon Bell missing from the offense, the Steelers need their quarterback to pick up the slack. The perception is that Roethlisberger has failed to do that. However, his 64.2 Total QBR through five games is similar to his 65.9 QBR through the first five games of all seasons since 2006.
Last season, Roethlisberger actually had more interceptions (seven) than touchdown passes (six) to this point in the season, with a 53.9 QBR. That Steelers team ranked 16th in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency through five games. The current team ranks higher on offense (eighth) and lower on defense (16th).
Shazier's absence is big. The Steelers allowed 295 yards per game, 17.8 points per game and a 41.3 Total QBR through the 2017 Week 13 game in which Shazier was lost to injury. They are allowing 376 yards per game, 27.3 points per game and a 63.7 QBR to opponents since then, counting playoffs.
"Pittsburgh looked good against Atlanta, but Atlanta is just not a good team right now," the other insider picking the Bengals said. "People don't really realize how much Shazier covered up things for that defense with his range and athleticism. Not having Shazier and Le'Veon Bell limits what they can do, and then you have Joe Mixon on the other side, playing that role for Cincy -- a poor man's Le'Veon Bell."
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: LAC by 1 | Insiders pick: LAC (2/3)
The Browns have collected 15 turnovers through five games, tied for the most by an NFL team through five games since the 2012 Bears collected 17. Despite ranking first in turnover margin this season, the Browns are only 11th in points off turnovers and 23rd in points off turnover margin, which says something about their offense's ability to capitalize on a turnover avalanche that appears unsustainable.
"That Browns defense, if you don't believe it, they travel well, man," the insider picking Cleveland said. "I think it will be tough on the Chargers because their offensive line is in shambles with a lot of guys hurt. I don't think they will be able to run the ball as effectively, so I like the Browns in a 17-7 type of game."
This insider thought the Browns' turnover pace was unsustainable in part because he did not think Cleveland had enough skill at the corner position.
"I think Philip Rivers is going in there against a secondary that is improved but not all the way there yet," one of the insiders picking the Chargers said. "I give Cleveland's defense credit, but if you want to be blitz-happy with a quarterback that is a veteran, you can find yourself in a lot of trouble."
Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has sent five or more pass-rushers on 38 percent of opponent pass plays, the NFL's second-highest rate through Week 5. Rivers fared well against Williams' blitzes in two previous meetings against the aggressive coordinator. He completed 20 of 24 passes (83.3 percent) for 203 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions and one sack when Williams' 2013 Tennessee Titans and 2014 St. Louis Rams sent five or more rushers against Rivers.
Williams' Rams suffered a 27-24 defeat to Rivers' Chargers with Shaun Hill starting at quarterback for St. Louis. His Titans prevailed 20-17 with Jake Locker behind center. Rivers threw no touchdowns with one interception and four sacks when Williams' defenses sent no more than four pass-rushers.
"I'll take the Chargers," the third insider said. "It was a slugfest defensively between Cleveland and Baltimore last week, but there were so many opportunities for the Ravens to grab the game and win it. You gotta give credit to the Browns, but if Rivers does not turn it over, the Chargers should be in every game."
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: CHI by 3 | Insiders pick: CHI (2/3)
Two of the three insiders are taking the Bears outright. The third insider picked the Dolphins unless Miami is without left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who began the week in the concussion protocol.
"This does feel like a potential letdown game for Chicago and a game of desperation for Miami," the third insider said. "You give Chicago credit for that Tampa game, but Tampa's defense was just terrible. I do think you can run on Chicago, especially away from Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. If Tunsil is playing and healthy, I will lean toward Miami by a field goal. If not, I lean toward Chicago."
This game features a compelling tactical battle between the Dolphins' offensive playcalling brain trust and their defensive counterpart for Chicago. Miami's Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains competed against Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in practice for multiple seasons in Chicago, with Loggains switching from the Bears to the Dolphins this season.
Fangio has clear advantages from a personnel standpoint, and those advantages could be too much for the Dolphins to overcome, especially if Tunsil cannot play.
"You can just see Gase throwing 10 or 12 screens where Chicago has to chase them down and expend a lot of energy in the Miami heat," one of the insiders picking Chicago said. "That will be a key for Chicago."
All three insiders focused on Chicago's defense against the Dolphins' offense as the key matchup, even though the Bears' Mitch Trubisky is coming off a game with six touchdown passes.
"I don't think they [the Bears] are an explosive offense yet because they don't have all the pieces and the quarterback is still learning," an insider said. "[Matt] Nagy is going to put Trubisky in a position to succeed, and then the defense is going to carry it."
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: WSH by 1 | Insiders pick: CAR (3/3)
Washington has won two games by double digits and lost two others by double digits. Carolina has gotten to 3-1 by finding ways to win hard-fought games against the Cowboys and the Giants despite especially poor performances on one side of the ball. Outstanding special teams have been a constant for the Panthers, who rank No. 1 in ESPN's special-teams efficiency metric.
"I don't know what I'm getting with Washington, which makes it hard to go with them," one of the insiders said. "It is the same thing with Carolina, but Thomas Davis comes back, which will help. And then Washington is not very fast on the edge in that 3-4 defense, and they could get into trouble with the Christian McCaffreys of the world, and doing stuff with the backs."
This insider agreed with my suggestion that Carolina could become a contender over the season's second half with tight end Greg Olsen returning from a foot injury as early as this week.
"Washington's front is good, but their secondary is a little shaky," another insider said. "I like Carolina. Their defense is good, they are coming together offensively and they play balanced football. It is hard when you don't have your No. 1 tight end and you don't have the receivers you would ideally like to have, but they have a good running group and they are making it work."
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: NE by 3.5 | Insiders pick: NE (2/3)
The Patriots' 2017 season began with a game against the Andy Reid-coached Chiefs and ended with a game against a Philadelphia team coached by Reid's protege, Doug Pederson. Kansas City gained 537 yards in its matchup with the Patriots. Philadelphia gained 538. Those are the two largest single-game yardage totals for any Patriots opponent since 1986, well before Bill Belichick took over as head coach.
"If New England is still king of doing what everyone says New England does, which is take away people's strong suit, it will be interesting to see what New England tries to take away, because Kansas City has so many weapons," one of the insiders said. "It also will be interesting to see with Kansas City's defense being so weak, does New England come out and smashmouth them? Because they can do that. Or will they come out and throw the ball and beat those [struggling] cover guys that they got?"
Reid has been known for succeeding with extra time to prepare, whether coming off a bye week or entering a season. Belichick is the coach with extra preparation time in this matchup. His Patriots have been idle since the Week 5 Thursday night game, also at home.
New England will get its first look at Patrick Mahomes, who passed for 192 yards from outside the pocket against Denver in Week 4. That was the highest single-game figure for any player since ESPN began charting that stat in 2009. Deshaun Watson is the only Patriots opponent with 100 or more yards passing from outside the pocket. He had 112 during a 36-33 Patriots victory last season.
"Bill will use really smart pass-rush stunts, so he will flush him, and then he will use a spy," another insider predicted. "The spy hides behind the rush so he is not far enough away for Mahomes to escape and not so close that Mahomes can change direction and get away. He waits for Mahomes to flush and then he springs on the guy. They will play him just like they played Tyrod Taylor last year."
Of course, Taylor did not have Reid's offense or anything close to the weaponry Mahomes possesses. And Mahomes is not Taylor. Still, there could be some strategic carryover when it comes to limiting damage on throws from outside the pocket.
"Bill will try to make him play in the pocket and try to confuse him with complicated nickel disguises," this insider added. "When Mahomes tries to get out, Bill will try to get him to go the way he wants, and then have a spy there waiting to tackle him. Andy Reid is going to know what Bill likes to do against mobile quarterbacks, so this will be interesting. Andy can neutralize that with his RPO game. Can he keep it in third-and-manageable?"
The Chiefs have not been a big RPO team on third down, but they have shown some tricky third-and-short plays featuring triple motion, a direct snap to Spencer Ware and a misdirection handoff against the Chargers near the goal line during which Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill crossed paths and Hill somehow came away with the football, high-stepping into the end zone.
"Maybe this is the game where the Chiefs are finally figured out and then every team starts implementing it," another insider said. "Maybe with Mahomes it is completely different than in years past. The thing about Mahomes is, his accuracy and athleticism to extend the drive has been really impressive. We saw that Sunday night with Deshaun Watson as well. I will take the Patriots because I think Tom Brady is going to pick apart that defense, and if they go that route, controlling the ball, it could be more of a 24-17 type of game."