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NFL experts predict: Week 6 upset picks, fantasy flops, sleepers, more

Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 6's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers. Plus: Is Gronk still the league's best tight end? Who ranks after Bill Belichick as the league's No. 2 coach? And which free-agent signing has been the NFL's best so far?


What's your top upset pick for Week 6?

Mike Clay, NFL writer: Browns +1 over Chargers. Cleveland has a good defense and just beat a strong Ravens team at home. Joey Bosa's injury has been a big issue for the Chargers' defense and should allow Baker Mayfield and the Browns to find the end zone enough to sneak away with a win.

Domonique Foxworth, The Undefeated senior writer: Broncos +7 over Rams. If concussions keep Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks sidelined, the Von Miller-led Broncos defense could have success against the seemingly unstoppable Rams. Combine that with the difficulties that come with playing at high altitude, and this game will be closer than expected.

Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Colts +2.5 over Jets. The Panthers and Steelers were tempting choices, but I'll take Andrew Luck and a Colts team that can be tough to put away.

Kevin Seifert, NFL national writer: Chiefs +3.5 over Patriots. My overwhelming impression of the Patriots' defense this season is that it lacks playmaking ability and speed. I can't think of a better opponent to exploit those holes than the Chiefs, who have elite speed at every position and a quarterback in Patrick Mahomes who creates extra time until someone breaks free.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Colts +2.5 over Jets. The Jets dominated the Broncos in Week 5, with Sam Darnold tossing darts and Isaiah Crowell steamrolling on the ground. But Indy -- with a more productive-than-you-realize pass rush and three extra days of rest -- can more than keep pace and swing the upset.

Who's the best tight end in the league right now?

Clay: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots. It's easy to knock Gronkowski for his injury issues, but there's no doubt he's the best and most feared tight end when he's on the field. New England's wide receiver issues led to an overwhelming amount of early-season coverage, but he's still fifth at the position in receiving yards, and he's a terrific blocker.

Foxworth: Travis Kelce, Chiefs. He is the best route runner of the league's top tight ends, and his numbers reflect that fact. And according to Pro Football Focus, his run-blocking grade is 65.7 to Gronk's 67.3. There is no doubt that Gronk is the better blocker and asked to take on more responsibility in the Patriots' running game. And those PFF scores don't properly reflect that difference. But Kelce's route-running ability causes him to get matched up with smaller defenders, whom he handles on running downs. Kelce is the most unique weapon on one of the most exciting offenses in the league. The matchup issues he creates are the most important pillar to the Chiefs' play design.

Sando: Gronkowski, Patriots. His production is right in line with where it has been through five games in past seasons, so I see no reason to go with a tight end who has better receiving numbers through this early point in the season. In looking at his stats, it was interesting to see him leading all tight ends in air yards per target (12.1).

Seifert: Gronkowski, Patriots. Kelce and Philadelphia's Zach Ertz are having better receiving seasons, but I can't think of any pass-catching tight end in the NFL who comes close to Gronkowski as a blocker. He might have lost a little speed and flexibility, but he is still the king.

Yates: Gronkowski, Patriots. I know the production hasn't been on par with Kelce or Ertz, but Gronk is the most dominant player the position has ever seen. He's a third offensive tackle as a blocker and nearly unstoppable in man coverage as a receiver.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Clay: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles. Jeffery struggled in Xavier Rhodes' shadow in Week 5 and will draw Janoris Jenkins in Week 6. Jeffery was limited to eight catches for 105 yards and one score on 18 targets in two games against the Giants last season and has caught six of 12 targets for 60 yards on 51 career routes against Jenkins.

Foxworth: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Hill is normally reliable because catching the ball isn't the only way he compiles fantasy points. He's an outstanding returner and takes handoffs in the Chiefs' offense. But the Patriots have been known to key on big-play guys like Hill. I suspect he will be most effective this week as a decoy.

Sando: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. His 13 TD passes through five games match a career high, but I'll roll the dice with a Browns defense that has allowed one TD pass while picking off six passes in home games against Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco.

Seifert: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. The Eagles have the NFL's third-toughest run defense via Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. Barkley has largely been feast or famine this season, having amassed five runs of at least 20 yards, but he'll have a tough task against Philly.

Yates: Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins. Drake was awesome in Week 5 and quieted some naysayers. But the Chicago defense looms, fresh off of a bye week to rest up. It'll be tough sledding against a Bears defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.

It's Chiefs-Patriots this week. If Bill Belichick is the league's best coach, is Andy Reid in the mix for No. 2?

Clay: Yes. Reid isn't perfect, but he changed the game with innovation and creativity during his time in Philadelphia and has somehow taken it to another level in Kansas City. Now armed with the most explosive offensive personnel of his head-coaching career, Reid is positioned for yet another run to the Super Bowl. Time's yours, Andy.

Foxworth: Yes. I have admired Reid for decades. He is one of the league's most flexible coaches. His willingness to redesign his offensive system around the strengths of his players is rare. And his ability to make packages of plays simple to execute, yet complicated to defend is second to none.

Sando: Yes, Reid gets the nod for the No. 2 spot over some excellent coaches because he has succeeded for so long with multiple quarterbacks while proving to be adaptable.

Seifert: He's in the mix but not a lock for No. 2. Why? In addition to Belichick, there are six active NFL coaches who have won a Super Bowl. That should be part of the evaluation. For that reason, I would put Reid fourth behind Belichick, New Orleans' Sean Payton and Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin.

Yates: Absolutely. Longevity, creativity, ability to tutor quarterbacks and manage a roster -- Reid is a brilliant coach.

Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 6.

Clay: Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs. The Falcons have allowed exactly three passing touchdowns in four consecutive games and the most fantasy points to quarterbacks during the span. Winston is riskier than usual in his first start of 2018, but he was a top-10 fantasy option when healthy last season, and Ryan Fitzpatrick utilized Tampa Bay's terrific personnel to post three top-eight fantasy weeks to start the season.

Foxworth: Aaron Jones, RB, Packers. The stats for Jones suggest that he has been underutilized. He is third in the league among running backs with 6.13 yards per carry, but he has only 24 carries so far. Some of that is because the Packers have spent much of this season trying to throw their way back into games. That should change this week with the Packers hosting the 1-4 49ers, who also happen to be the 26th-ranked fantasy defense against running backs.

Sando: C.J. Uzomah, TE, Bengals. He figures more prominently into the team's game plans with Tyler Eifert on injured reserve. Uzomah faces a Steelers defense that has allowed a league-high 60 fantasy points to opponents at the position (Travis Kelce 29.9, Austin Hooper 16.7, O.J. Howard 13.2, Cameron Brate 12.4, Maxx Williams 10.1, Nick Boyle 6.6).

Seifert: Robby Anderson, WR, Jets. Anderson is sure to gain more attention after a two-touchdown performance last week, but he is facing a Colts team that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards (1,413) in the league. He should have a chance at another big game.

Yates: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Falcons. There might not be a better matchup than the Buccaneers, who the Falcons host Sunday. Sanu has a total of 14 catches for 320 yards and two touchdowns in his past three games.

Who's the best free-agent signing of the 2018 offseason so far?

Clay: Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings. I wanted to get creative here, but it's hard not to pick Cousins and his career-high 71 percent completion rate and 11-2 TD-to-INT mark. The Vikings' season got off to a slow start, but a big win in Philadelphia has them back on the postseason path. This is a team still loaded on defense, and Cousins has taken the offense to the next level.

Foxworth: Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams. I wouldn't argue that Cooks was the most talented player picked up in free agency. He wasn't even the most talented player added to the Rams. But he has been the most impactful. His big-play ability has taken the Rams' offense from good to historic. If he doesn't return to form after leaving last week's game with a concussion, the Rams will become much less scary for defensive coordinators. Cousins is the obvious choice, which doesn't make him the wrong choice. His stats certainly make his case well. But the Vikings haven't hit their stride just yet -- the best thing you can say about him at this point is they'd be worse than mediocre without him. Without Cooks, the Rams would be good on offense, but not on this all-time great pace.

Sando: Cousins, QB, Vikings. He's putting up huge numbers and giving the Vikings a chance to win while the team struggles in other areas. The sheer importance of the position makes Cousins the "best" signing even though others have been exceptional values, including Ravens receiver John Brown, who has more yardage than Antonio Brown and is on a one-year, $5 million deal.

Seifert: Cousins, QB, Vikings. There were other signings who didn't cost nearly the $84 milion the Vikings guaranteed to Cousins, but at this point, the only person who cares how much money he's earning is owner Zygi Wilf, who cuts the checks. Cousins ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (1,688) and No. 7 in QBR (71.0). The Vikings went big but are getting a big return.

Yates: Devon Kennard, LB, Lions. This is an off-the-radar choice, but are we paying enough attention to Kennard? He's now up to five sacks and has been by far Detroit's best pass-rushing threat. It's another nice pickup by general manager Bob Quinn.