In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs were the last undefeated team thanks to an offense that dominated the early part of the season. In 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the last two undefeated teams thanks to an offense that has dominated the early part of the season. But a lot else has changed.
Last year's two Super Bowl teams have each started 2-2, although the Eagles have been more consistently mediocre while the Patriots have had significant highs and lows. Each conference also has two playoff teams from last season that have started with losing records: Minnesota and Atlanta in the NFC, Pittsburgh and Buffalo in the AFC.
And while before the season we all swore that the NFC was by far the stronger conference, so far it's the AFC teams with the better records. Six AFC teams are 3-1 or better. Only three NFC teams are 3-1 or better. Somehow, one of them is the Chicago Bears, a franchise that hasn't been to the playoffs since 2010.
Can the Bears finally return to the playoffs? Can the Chiefs win their first Super Bowl in nearly 50 years? And can the Rams go all the way only three years after returning to Los Angeles? We can figure out those odds by going beyond just looking at each team's record after four games. It's important to consider just how well a team has played so far, based on a play-by-play breakdown rather than just binary wins and losses. We want to consider what we knew about how good a team was going into this year. We also should consider injuries as well as the schedule each team has yet to face, which is harder for some teams than others.
We've done all that using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings and produced current playoff odds for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Chance of making playoffs: 85.3 percent
Before the season, the biggest question was what we could expect from first-year starter Patrick Mahomes. So far, of course, he has been incredible. Mahomes is No. 1 in the league in ESPN's QBR and ranks second in Football Outsiders' DVOA behind Jared Goff of the Rams. Both the Rams and the Chiefs rank among the top 20 offenses we've tracked through four games, going back to 1986. Seventeen of the previous 20 top offenses through Week 4 eventually made the playoffs.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs have a weakness the Rams don't have: the defense. Based on DVOA, only Tampa Bay has had a worse defense early this season. Kansas City ranks 30th against the pass and dead last against the run.
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 70.4 percent
The Ravens are doing this with a much-improved passing game, which has gone from 26th in DVOA last season to ninth so far this year, and with their usual stifling defense, which is third in DVOA behind Chicago and Jacksonville. Surprisingly, the Ravens are not doing this with their usually stellar special teams. Although Justin Tucker has been our No. 1 place-kicker on field goals and extra points, the Ravens are below average in the other four areas of special teams we measure, making them 20th in special teams overall.
3. Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 66.8 percent
I will fully admit that the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings seem too high on the Dolphins' first three wins, which is why they still rank sixth in DVOA even after a dismal performance in Week 4. Part of the issue is that DVOA is an efficiency-based system, and it sometimes will overrate a performance that's extremely efficient with a low time of possession. That's what we got in Week 3, when the Dolphins averaged 9.6 yards per play with no turnovers against Oakland but ran barely half as many plays as the Raiders did.
Nonetheless, as I pointed out in an article last week, Miami's high playoff odds are about more than just a high play-by-play rating. It helps to start 3-1, and the Dolphins have one of the easiest schedules in the league going forward. That schedule is the main reason our simulation gives the Dolphins higher playoff odds than the Jaguars or Bengals right now.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 62.1 percent
After four weeks, it certainly seems that Football Outsiders' forecast of regression for the Jacksonville defense is going to miss the mark. The Jaguars rank second in defensive DVOA, trailing only the Bears. The offense has been average so far, which is roughly where it was in 2017 as well. The difference is that the Jaguars haven't been as dependent on getting off to an early lead in 2018. Last season, Jacksonville had the No. 1 offensive DVOA in the first quarter, then dropped to 21st the rest of the game. This year, Jacksonville has the No. 16 offensive DVOA in the first quarter and matches that with the No. 16 offensive DVOA the rest of the game.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 60.7 percent
Cincinnati had a fantastically exciting win over Atlanta last Sunday, but it was easily their worst game according to DVOA, and they dropped from fourth to seventh overall this week. In general, having to convert multiple fourth-and-long situations to complete a comeback is not a sign of future success on offense.
Nonetheless, it's hard to criticize the Bengals so far, as they're playing better than anyone expected. The Bengals are the only team in the DVOA top 10 that also played a top-10 schedule in September, and they did that playing three road games out of four. However, that schedule doesn't get any easier. Based on our DAVE ratings that combine Weeks 1-4 with preseason forecasts, Cincinnati still has one of the 10 hardest schedules in the league the rest of the way.
6. New England Patriots (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 57.7 percent
Essentially the flip side of the Dolphins. There's a very good chance that we're underestimating New England's playoff chances here, because the Patriots seem to use September in a different way than most teams. Right now New England ranks 15th in DVOA, at 1.3 percent, slightly above zero. This is in line with three of the past four years, when New England had a DVOA below zero and a rank between 17th and 23rd after Week 4. Yet in each of those years, the Patriots' DVOA was up into the top six by the end of the season, and in each of those years, the team finished 12-4 or better. Are we going to get the same thing in 2018?
Contenders
7. Tennessee Titans (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 45.2 percent
By far the worst 3-1 team by DVOA, Tennessee ranks 22nd while every other 3-1 team is 11th or better. All three Titans wins have come by just three points, although their only loss was also by just one score (27-20 to Miami in Week 1). They've allowed more yards per play (5.7) than they've gained (5.0) and have a turnover margin of just plus-one.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 34.2 percent
While the Titans are the worst of the 3-1 teams, the Chargers are the best of the 2-2 teams, ranking 12th in DVOA. They rank No. 4 on offense, held back in part by a No. 21 defense and a No. 31 special teams. The defensive problems are less about missing Joey Bosa than you might think: Los Angeles ranks seventh in pressure rate (31.3 percent), according to ESPN Stats & Information charting.
As for special teams, what else is new? The Chargers have replaced their punter, but they've been replacing punters and kickers for years and it hasn't helped. Special teams tend to be much less consistent than offense or defense, and yet the Chargers have ranked 29th or worse in special teams DVOA for four straight seasons, including this one.
In the running
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 23.9 percent
It hasn't been a pretty season for Pittsburgh and it's going to get even harder. With the resurgence of Cincinnati and Baltimore combined with the strength of the NFC South, Pittsburgh has the second-toughest remaining schedule in the league (trailing only Cleveland). Getting Le'Veon Bell back will help, but what Pittsburgh really needs to do is figure out what's wrong with the connection between Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Brown has a catch rate of just 55 percent, which would be a career low, and he's down from a career average of 13.4 yards per reception to just 9.4 yards per reception this season.
10. Houston Texans (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 23.1 percent
The Texans may be 1-3, but they're definitely still alive. The Texans are the best of the 1-3 teams in DVOA, ranking 13th despite their losing record. (A big culprit is their 20-17 loss to Tennessee in Week 2, when they gained 7.0 yards per play to Tennessee's 5.0.) They also have the advantage of seven home games left. However, they need to solve the imbalance in their defense, primarily caused by coverage issues. Houston is second in run defense DVOA but 29th in pass defense, including 30th on third-and-long.
Some good news if you drafted the Texans' defense in fantasy: Only New England has an easier remaining schedule of opposing offenses. Some bad news if you drafted Deshaun Watson or Lamar Miller: Only Detroit has a harder remaining schedule of opposing defenses.
11. Denver Broncos (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 22.5 percent
The differences between the Broncos and Chargers are all small, but they add up to give the Chargers a playoff-odds advantage of more than 10 percent. Los Angeles is two spots ahead of Denver in DVOA, and it is five spots ahead in the DAVE ratings that incorporate our preseason projections. (If you're wondering why to consider preseason projections, just consider the quarterbacks of these two teams and your expectations for them going forward.) Denver also has a slightly harder remaining schedule, 12th versus 17th.
12. Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 17.0 percent
The big turnaround this year has been by the Colts' pass defense, which was dead last in DVOA a year ago and ranks 13th now. Unfortunately, the offense is not matching the defense so far, ranking only 25th in DVOA. Despite a 1-3 record in a division with two 3-1 teams, the Colts are alive for reasons similar to Houston's. Indianapolis is a reasonable 16th in DVOA despite the losing record, and its schedule is about to get easier, going from eighth so far to 25th the rest of the way.
Long shots
13. New York Jets (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 12.1 percent
The Jets are fifth in defensive DVOA and second on special teams, but they are dragged down by an abysmal offense that ranks 30th. The silver lining is that their remaining schedule ranks 29th and includes seven home games.
14. Oakland Raiders (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 10.9 percent
The Oakland offense has been ... kind of good under Jon Gruden? While nobody is noticing, the Raiders have been fairly efficient, ranking ninth in DVOA, including seventh when passing the ball. Unfortunately, the defense has been poor, only 26th in DVOA, and it could get even worse. Oakland's defense has been "bend but don't break," ranking fourth in the red zone. Red zone performance tends to be less consistent than performance on the rest of the field, so all those yards the Raiders allow are more likely to turn into touchdowns the rest of the season.
15. Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 7.3 percent
Cleveland ranks fourth in defensive DVOA so far this year, trailing only the Bears, Jaguars and Ravens. So why are the Browns' playoff odds so low? Their offense is just 29th in DVOA, although Baker Mayfield should get that moving upward, and their special teams are dead last -- negative in all five elements that we track, so it's not just one bad game from former kicker Zane Gonzalez. Cleveland also has to play the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. And another thing that's likely to change: The Browns have been absurdly lucky when it comes to fumble recovery rate, recovering seven of nine fumbles on offense and all six fumbles they've forced on defense.
16. Buffalo Bills (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 0.9 percent
Buffalo is the worst team in the league by our numbers, and it isn't close. The defense and special teams are close to average, but the Bills have the fourth-worst offensive rating through Week 4 of any team since 1986. (The teams behind them: 2013 Jaguars, 2002 Texans and 2004 Dolphins.)
The Bills now have the No. 1 overall pick in 28.2 percent of our simulations, just ahead of Arizona. They get a top-five pick in 76.5 percent of our simulations.
NFC playoff projections
Favorites
1. Los Angeles Rams (4-0)
Chance of making playoffs: 97.5 percent
The Rams are the class of the league right now. They lead the NFL with 49.7 percent DVOA, while no other team is above 33 percent. Before the season began, our season projections had a big gap between the top eight teams and the rest of the league. But of those top eight projected teams, the Rams are the only one in the top eight for 2018 performance.
Combine their high preseason projection with their fantastic performance early and their undefeated start, and the Rams end up dominating our playoff odds simulation. They have 12.5 mean wins in the simulations, while no other team is above 11. They get the No. 1 seed in the NFC 59 percent of the time. And they win the Super Bowl a little over 30 percent of the time.
2. Chicago Bears (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 78.5 percent
The Bears zoomed up to No. 3 overall in the DVOA ratings after their huge win over Tampa Bay. They're powered by the best defense in the league so far: It's 30 percent more efficient than average when no other defense is above 20 percent. And when it comes to simulating the rest of the season, they have the advantage of the easiest remaining schedule in the league based on average DVOA of opponent. It helps that Detroit and Minnesota have struggled compared to expectations and that the next four games come against the AFC East.
However, one of the problems early in the season with a metric that counts every single play (such as DVOA) is that it might overvalue the importance of a single huge win or loss. That may be happening with the Bears, who had the best single-game performance of the year so far against Tampa Bay in Week 4. Subjectively, giving Chicago the second-best playoff odds in the NFC might seem a bit high. However, even if we gave the Bears the same rating they had before they beat down the Bucs -- they ranked 10th in the league at that point -- they still would make the playoffs 57.7 percent of the time, which would make them one of the top four teams in the NFC. A 3-1 record and an easy schedule are a very nice combination.
3. New Orleans Saints (3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 67.8 percent
The Saints' offense is pumping on all cylinders (third in DVOA), but the defense has declined dramatically from last season (now 29th in DVOA). The Saints will need the defense to step up a bit because things are going to get harder the rest of the way. Based on average DVOA of opponent, the Saints have played the easiest schedule in the league so far. All four of their opponents rank in the bottom 10 of the DVOA ratings now. Their remaining schedule ranks fourth toughest if we look only at 2018 performance and ranks as the hardest in the league if we also incorporate preseason projections into our ratings.
4. Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 60.9 percent
The Packers had their best performance of the year with the 22-0 shutout of Buffalo and went from 22nd to 10th in the DVOA ratings in one week. Their opening-week comeback win over Chicago could end up being a lot more important than we thought at the time, as the Packers are now 1-0-1 in the division while the Bears are 0-1.
5. Washington Redskins (2-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 56.0 percent
Washington has an extremely imbalanced defense so far, ranking third against the pass but dead last against the run. That gives the Redskins a huge advantage in net yards per pass: 7.2 net yards per pass for them (ninth) and just 4.8 net yards per pass allowed (third).
6. Carolina Panthers (2-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 52.7 percent
Carolina and Washington have similar DVOA ratings, similar remaining schedules and the same win-loss record. The reason Washington has higher playoff chances is simply that Carolina has 3-1 New Orleans in its division, while Washington is in first place in the NFC East.
Contenders
7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 41.2 percent
The Eagles have essentially played half of a really good game this year. Not half as in 30 minutes, but half as in one unit: the defense against Atlanta in Week 1. Take that game out, and their defensive DVOA drops from eighth in the league to 24th. Their offense is 24th on the season, and the special teams are 26th. Not only do the Eagles have to improve, they'll have to do it against tougher competition: Philadelphia's schedule so far ranks fifth easiest, but its remaining schedule ranks seventh toughest if we consider only 2018 performance and fourth toughest if we also consider preseason projections.
On the other hand, the Eagles have higher odds than the NFC's other 2-2 teams because there was plenty of evidence going into the season that they were better than this, and we're still accounting for that preseason forecast in the ratings we use in the simulation. Also, the Eagles are only a half-game behind Washington, and they haven't played any division games yet.
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 34.4 percent
The Cowboys have the most imbalanced offense in the league through four weeks: 28th in DVOA passing but third in rushing. Whatever you want to say about their early troubles, they certainly aren't Ezekiel Elliott's fault. Elliott leads the league in our metric for rushing value despite taking a big hit because of an easy schedule so far.
9. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 30.0 percent
Seattle somehow still ranks sixth in defensive DVOA despite all the injuries and personnel turnover on that side of the ball. But the offense has been a major problem this season, and there's reason to believe the Seattle offense might be even worse than it looks early on. Seattle ranks 27th in offensive DVOA despite ranking No. 1 in the red zone. That's a problem since red zone performance tends to be less consistent than performance on the rest of the field. What happens when that small-sample-size performance in the red zone goes away and turns touchdowns into field goals?
Note that our simulation does include a small penalty for Seattle losing Earl Thomas, one of the most valuable defensive players in the league.
In the running
10. Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 24.0 percent
A shocking loss to Buffalo in Week 3 is really dragging down Minnesota's rating. The Vikings are 25th in DVOA now, but they rank 19th in the DAVE ratings that incorporate our preseason forecast. Having two teams ahead of them in the division is a real problem, though, and right now the Vikings win the NFC North in less than 10 percent of simulations.
One thing that should get better for Minnesota is its fumble recovery rate. Not counting special teams, there have been 11 fumbles in Minnesota games, and the Vikings have recovered only two of them.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 19.0 percent
Even when it was 2-1, Tampa Bay was only 20th in DVOA because the defense had given up so much yardage in the first three games. After getting demolished by Chicago, the Bucs dropped all the way down to No. 29. They have the worst defense in the league this season.
12. Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 17.0 percent
The offense is still playing well, seventh in DVOA, but the defense is a massive problem: It's 30th in DVOA, with three starters already on injured reserve. The Falcons are stuck in the standings behind three teams with better records, but if they get into the division race, at least their one win so far was in the division (over Carolina). Atlanta is a game behind Tampa Bay, but it has been the better team this season; the Bucs have just seen close games go their way while the Falcons have not.
Long shots
13. Detroit Lions (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 7.6 percent
Detroit has easily been the least consistent team in the NFL so far this year; it's hard to believe the team that spanked the Patriots in Week 3 is the same team that got run over by the Jets in Week 1. Things are going to get tougher, as the Lions' schedule goes from sixth easiest so far to seventh most difficult the rest of the way. The Lions get the No. 1 pick in 6.4 percent of our simulations; as we'll see, four of the five teams with the strongest chance to win the No. 1 pick are NFC teams.
14. New York Giants (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 7.6 percent
Last year's Giants offense ranked 23rd in DVOA. This year, with all their receivers back healthy and the addition of second overall pick Saquon Barkley, they've improved all the way to ... 22nd in DVOA.
But hey, at least right now, the Giants get the No. 1 pick in 6.0 percent of our simulations.
15. San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 5.1 percent
The 49ers are below average in all three phases of the game and are stuck playing a backup quarterback for the rest of the season. Yet four of their next six games are in prime time, including games with fellow 1-3 teams Oakland (Thursday, Week 9) and the New York Giants (Monday, Week 10). Right now, the 49ers get the No. 1 pick in 9.9 percent of our simulations.
16. Arizona Cardinals (0-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 0.7 percent
Arizona has played the hardest schedule in the league so far, with three of their four opponents in the top 10 of DVOA. But those opponent adjustments don't keep the Cardinals from having the worst DVOA rating in the NFC. Combine that with an 0-4 record and the fact they've played only one of their road games so far, and the Cardinals have a very strong chance to earn the No. 1 pick in next year's draft: 28.1 percent of simulations, in fact. They get a top-five pick in 72.0 percent of simulations.
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary defense-adjusted value over average metric that looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here.
Right now, the ratings used in the simulation are 50 percent forecast and 50 percent performance so far. This is the first week we add in opponent adjustments to our 2017 ratings, and those adjustments are at 40 percent of their eventual full strength.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different from playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.