ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 5. This week's games: Jaguars-Chiefs, Titans-Bills, Packers-Lions, Vikings-Eagles and Cowboys-Texans.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: KC by 3 | Insiders pick: KC (2/3)
The Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Chargers, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings, Eagles and Cowboys are the top 10 teams since the start of last season in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric. The Jaguars have a 4-2 record against those teams over that span, including 2-1 on the road. That counts playoff games against Pittsburgh and New England on the road last season.
"The one thing you know you will get with Jacksonville is their great defense," one insider said. "But their game against Tennessee [9-6 defeat at home] showed you do not know 100 percent what you are getting from Blake Bortles. He is managing games better overall and Kansas City is really bad on defense. I don't quite trust it enough to pick Jacksonville on the road."
The Chiefs are among 37 teams since 2001 to allow at least 23 points in each of their first four games. They are the only team among those 37 to post a 4-0 record in the process. The other 36 teams were a combined 34-110.
Jacksonville showed last season it could win a shootout, outlasting the Steelers 45-42 in the divisional playoffs. However, it has a 2-8 record since the start of last season when allowing more than 20 points. The rest of the league has won 28 percent of those games.
"K.C. will continue to score points," another insider predicted. "They have too many answers and Jacksonville cannot keep up scoring points."
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: GB by 1 | Insiders pick: GB (3/3)
The Lions do not possess strong pass-rush personnel without the injured Ezekiel Ansah. The Packers can be pretty good at protecting the passer. That imbalance was where two insiders saw the outcome turning in Green Bay's favor.
"Detroit schemes its rush well because the head coach is used to multiplicity," one of these insiders said, "but they do not have a person who scares you on the defensive side of the ball. I just don't think Detroit has enough rush."
The NFC North quarterback landscape appears unfamiliar. Aaron Rodgers (52.4) and Matthew Stafford (50.5) are 19th and 20th, respectively, in Total QBR. That is below the Bears' Mitchell Trubisky (54.8) and well below the Vikings' Kirk Cousins (70.6). Lots of football remains.
"I pick the Packers, think it will be tight, could be a shootout and will come down to Rodgers carrying the team on his back late even though he has not been playing great," one of the insiders said, noting that injuries on defense could affect Green Bay.
NFL scoring is up, but the Packers are more than three offensive points per game under their Rodgers-era average through four games. That could change against the Lions, who have given up 27 points per game to opposing offenses, the most Detroit has allowed through four games since Stafford's 2009 rookie season. The Lions allowed 17.5 per game through four games in 2017 and 23.5 for the season -- the most Detroit has allowed in its past four winning seasons.
"With his knee, Rodgers clearly is not the same guy," another insider said. "What you need to do is get the running game going. That is hard with Rodgers, because he is an improviser and their offense is designed around him, so you lose elements of your offense when you try to protect him by achieving balance."
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: TEN by 3.5 | Insiders pick: TEN (2/3)
This game made the cut over Rams-Seahawks and Redskins-Saints because the point spread was so much closer.
"I could see the potential of a letdown game for the Titans, but I'm going to pick Tennessee," one of the insiders said. "Their defense is really talented and somewhat unique in that they have three legit starting corners. My thinking is that Josh Allen will turn the ball over, and that what happened in Green Bay is more reality than what happened at Minnesota."
Health at quarterback is a primary concern for Tennessee. Not many teams fare well after their top two quarterbacks get hurt in the first two games. Marcus Mariota's ability to battle through his injury was critical in the overtime victory at Philadelphia last week.
"I like Tennessee -- seems like they have some things going on there," another insider said.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: PHI by 3 | Insiders pick: PHI (2/3)
This rematch of the NFC Championship Game arrives with neither team playing at a high level consistently and injuries affecting both.
"I think Minnesota is in some disarray," an insider said. "They don't have an offensive line that is very good. Some of the stuff they do on defense is good because they are talented, but when you play against Philly and an Andy Reid-type offense, they will have options. Philly is getting guys back with Alshon [Jeffery] playing. They have the tight ends."
Both teams could simply be finding their way.
"Minnesota has looked lackadaisical, which is the exact opposite of what we expect from a Mike Zimmer team," an insider said. "His teams are usually the hardest, toughest -- they mug the s--- out of you. It is almost like, when are they going to turn the page and take off? I'll lean Philly at home by less than a touchdown."
The Eagles have their own issues and could be much more vulnerable on defense in this game than they were against Case Keenum in the playoffs last season. Kirk Cousins is off to his fastest four-game start in terms of completion rate, passing yards, touchdown passes, passer rating and Total QBR. He has also thrown 36 more passes this season than he ever did through four games while with Washington. It's a heavy workload.
"Losing [safety] Rodney McLeod is huge for the Eagles," one of the insiders said. "It feels like opponents really broke down Philadelphia on both sides of the ball and have been able to beat some blitzes that worked well last season. Tampa and Tennessee both caught them in blitzes and made them pay with explosive plays."
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: HOU by 3.5 | Insiders pick: HOU (2/3)
The first thing one insider said was that this will be a bad game. The first thing another said was that this will be a good game.
"I'm going with Houston because they will scheme it better than Dallas," the pessimistic insider said. "When you don't have the players, you have to adapt. I do not know if Dallas has adapted enough. Miami won three games adapting."
The Cowboys have won two games whether they've adapted sufficiently or not. That is better than the 1-3 Texans.
"All you gotta do against Dallas is shut down Ezekiel Elliott," another insider said. "That is easier said than done. When he can operate like he did against Detroit, Dallas will win more often than not. But they have such little margin for error because they are not explosive."
Among teams that have played four games, the Cowboys are tied with Buffalo for the second-fewest pass completions gaining more than 15 yards. Only Arizona has fewer (12). Dallas does lead the league in rushing plays gaining at least 12 yards.
"I expect Houston at home to be able to pull one out," the third insider said.