The New England Patriots and 10 other NFL contenders entered the 2018 season as clear Las Vegas betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Several of those teams, such as the Minnesota Vikings, who are staggering after the first month, have not met those high expectations. Other favorites, most notably the Patriots, appear to have steadied themselves for now, despite some serious concerns.
"I think the Patriots believe they're back and everyone else believes it, but are they?" an exec asked Sunday night.
The angst levels remain nerve-wrackingly high even for some of the contending teams that prevailed in Week 4 (here's to you, Los Angeles Chargers). I've placed these 11 preseason favorites in categories that represent each level of angst, from one extreme to the other.
Each contender below includes its preseason Super Bowl odds, plus its updated chances for reaching the Super Bowl this season, courtesy of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook listed all of these teams' Super Bowl odds at 14-1 or better entering the season. None of the league's other 21 teams was given anything shorter than 25-1 odds.
High angst
Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1)
Preseason odds: 10-1
Latest FPI chances: 2.9 percent
The team that guaranteed $84 million at signing for Kirk Cousins in a Super Bowl-or-bust rolling of the dice is getting MVP-level statistical production from its new quarterback through four games. That would be great, except that Minnesota has a 1-2-1 record, with no assurances Cousins can sustain his current pace.
The 2017 Vikings were 5-0 when they scored more than 24 points. Minnesota is 0-1-1 in those games this season.
How could the Vikings' defense become so vulnerable? There are tougher mysteries to solve; the schedule and the Vikings' pass rush are leading factors.
Minnesota played five road games against Tier 1-2 quarterbacks last season. The Vikings allowed nearly 24 offensive points per game in those five outings, including 31 to Carolina, 30 to Washington, 26 to Pittsburgh and 23 to Detroit. Minnesota posted a 2-3 record in those hard-to-win matchups.
This season, the Vikings have played road games against Aaron Rodgers (23 offensive points) and the emerging Jared Goff (38 offensive points). They are 0-1-1 in those hard-to-win matchups, which is not good but not dramatically worse than last season.
Minnesota also lost 27-6 at home to Buffalo, the most concerning development of this young season. Only four eventual Super Bowl teams have lost at home by 21-plus points since divisional realignment in 2002.
Going forward, the Vikings' pass-rushing concerns could be pivotal.
There was much consternation during the Vikings' 38-31 defeat Thursday night in Los Angeles as to how they could repeatedly find themselves on the wrong end of mismatches. It looked like a classic case of Rams coach Sean McVay outscheming Vikings coach Mike Zimmer, but as Zimmer noted after the game, a similar Vikings defense held a similar Rams offense to seven points in Minnesota last season.
Coaches who hold Zimmer in high regard -- but have their own ideas about how to play defense -- noted that Zimmer is all about unleashing a fearsome pass rush to affect the quarterback before mismatches show themselves.
"There are times when Minnesota likes to do everything with their safeties except defend the deep ball," one of these coaches said. "They want to get close to people and deny throws. If their rush is not perfect, they can be vulnerable."
Top pass-rusher Everson Griffen's absence is obviously a factor.
"Minnesota starts with quarterback vision and then they match, and that is where at the end of plays, you are like, 'Why is Anthony Barr on a wideout?'" the coach said. "They are saying, 'He is going to get beat eventually, but our rush is so strong that we are going to crush the quarterback.'"
Barring adjustments, the NFL's top offenses will put up points if that Vikings rush does not arrive as consistently as Minnesota would like.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Preseason odds: 12-1
Latest FPI chances: 5.5 percent
Last season, the NFL's largest one-play swing in expected points came on the Chargers' pick-six at Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys had first down from the Los Angeles 13, a situation worth 4.6 expected points (the assumption was that the Cowboys would probably get a field goal or touchdown). The pick-six produced an 11-point swing, the difference between those 4.6 expected points for Dallas and six or seven for Los Angeles.
By the time the 2017 season ended, the Chargers were in the 63rd percentile for defense, according to ESPN's expected points efficiency metric. That ranked them seventh in the league. The Chargers were in the 61st percentile for offense, ranking fifth. That made Los Angeles one of two teams, along with Minnesota, to rank in the 60th percentile or better on both sides of the ball. They were a good team -- but they had a fatal flaw.
The third side of the ball, special teams, was the Chargers' undoing. They were so bad on special teams (27th percentile) that they ranked 381st out of 384 teams since 2006.
Skip ahead to 2018. I liked the Chargers' chances this season based on the thinking that they probably would not be historically bad on special teams once again. Of the 240 teams to miss the playoffs from 2006 through last season, only two had ranked in the 60th percentile or better on both offense and defense. The 2017 Chargers were one of those teams, and if I'd realized before Sunday that the 2010 Chargers were the other, I might have tempered my expectations.
If the Chargers could be simply below average on special teams in 2018, my thinking went, they would be a playoff team. But in their 2018 opener against Kansas City, they turned in their very worst single-game special-teams performance in the history of our efficiency metric, which dates to 2006 and included 193 Chargers games through Week 1. They were 31st on special teams through Week 3, with only Minnesota beneath them at that point.
The Chargers have also lost defensive end Joey Bosa since Las Vegas installed them as one of the Super Bowl faves (they will get Corey Liuget back from suspension next week, a big addition to the defensive front). On Sunday, they barely held off a San Francisco 49ers team with C.J. Beathard and a lot of other backups contributing. Worse for the Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs have emerged as the clear AFC West favorite after entering the season as a 30-1 shot for the Super Bowl.
"Their defense has been gashed some this season, and then their offensive line is still troublesome, I think," an exec from another team said, before a groin injury forced Chargers left tackle Russell Okung out of Sunday's game.
Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Preseason odds: 14-1
Latest FPI chances: 2.3 percent
The Falcons are the only team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to score more than 35 points in successive weeks and lose both games. This is their new reality after injuries knocked out strong safety Keanu Neal, linebacker Deion Jones and cornerback Ricardo Allen from the defense they had built with care to Dan Quinn's specifications.
Atlanta is basically another version of the latter-day New Orleans Saints, resigned to winning shootouts.
It could be worse.
The preseason and early-season chirping over Steve Sarkisian's playcalling and red-zone scheming should subside now that the Falcons are scoring touchdowns on 67 percent of red-zone possessions. If sustained, that would be Atlanta's highest single-season rate in the Matt Ryan era, better than the 62 percent rate from Ryan's 2016 MVP season. The Falcons have scored 12 red-zone touchdowns -- one more than the 2016 Super Bowl team had through four games.
If you're going to have major issues on defense, you might as well have an offense that can keep pace. This Falcons offense has been able to do that, but with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay (twice), New Orleans, Green Bay and Carolina still on the schedule, two words come to mind: buckle up.
Houston Texans (1-3)
Preseason odds: 14-1
Latest FPI chances: 1.3 percent
I've placed the Texans in the "high angst" category based on their preseason Vegas odds, not based on my expectations for them.
My thinking before the season held that Deshaun Watson was not a realistic MVP candidate in his second season because there were too many factors working against him. Some coaches and evaluators thought he got away with putting the ball at risk last season, and that the odds could even out. Watson was coming off a torn ACL, so he might not be as spectacular right away. And the Texans' offensive line was arguably the NFL's worst.
Throw together those factors, plus the Texans' reliance on multiple defensive stars returning to health, and I thought Houston was a longer shot to contend. The Texans needed overtime to beat Indianapolis on Sunday. I don't see them winning the AFC South.
If you thought the Texans were contenders, your angst should be high. I just didn't think those expectations were realistic.
"People rave about their defense, but the Colts just put up [466] yards on them," an exec said. "The quarterback can be good, but if you can't protect him and your defense is not that good, is that a sound team?"
Moderate angst
Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)
Preseason odds: 12-1
Latest FPI chances: 3.8 percent
The view from 30,000 feet says that the Packers are second in the NFC North and in great shape to make another run at the division title, but they do not appear to be appreciably different from the Green Bay teams that have fallen short in recent seasons. Is that anything to worry about? That depends on your expectations.
"It's early and I don't know if their defense is very good, they still don't have much of a running game and I think they are playing with fire when it comes to the quarterback," an exec said, hitting on themes that have defined the Packers recently.
The defense was outstanding during the Packers' 22-0 victory over Buffalo at Lambeau Field in Week 4, but Green Bay probably won't be facing a Josh Allen type in the playoffs.
Aaron Rodgers, whose 2017 season ended when he suffered a broken collarbone on his 323rd offensive snap, is playing through the knee injury he sustained on the Packers' 14th offensive play of the season. He rushed five times for 31 yards and took a hard hit on a sack that slammed his head into the rear end of his left tackle on Sunday.
Of the quarterbacks who are playing at a high level into their late 30s, how many are scramblers and frequent play extenders? If I'm a Packers fan, I'm feeling the angst when Rodgers takes off running with the ball or holds it for a shot at a big play. But I'm feeling even more angst if I'm a fan rooting for the Packers' opponents.
"They are probably what we thought they were, but they have a guy [Rodgers] who can win every single game," a veteran coach said.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
Preseason odds: 10-1
Latest FPI chances: 2.0 percent
The Steelers had been 13-2 at home against the AFC North over the past five seasons before their 26-14 defeat to Baltimore on Sunday night.
Subtracting the injured Ryan Shazier and holdout Le'Veon Bell from a team that couldn't beat Jacksonville at home in the playoffs last season leaves the Steelers ... where?
"I think they can still be OK," an exec said. "They have too many offensive weapons and they can put up points. I think they can play average to above-average defense against decent offensive teams, but they are not the same as they used to be on that side of the ball."
One veteran evaluator thought the Steelers needed to figure out their safety situation and get Bell back into the lineup for a shot at the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
Preseason odds: 14-1
Latest FPI chances: 4.3 percent
The Eagles barely beat the Colts and barely lost to the Titans in the two games since Carson Wentz returned from knee surgery. That isn't much to go on.
A veteran evaluator said the Eagles' chances will hinge on their ability to get and stay healthy at receiver, running back and in their pass-rushing rotation. That assumes Wentz can stay healthy as well -- no sure thing after the Titans hit him 11 times Sunday. And it assumes the Eagles can restore a secondary that entered the season with question marks at cornerback and is worse off with safety Rodney McLeod on IR.
The rest of the NFC East isn't running away from the Eagles, diminishing the angst level for the defending Super Bowl champions.
New Orleans Saints (3-1)
Preseason odds: 14-1
Latest FPI chances: 7.0 percent
Games against the Ravens, Vikings, Rams, Bengals, Eagles and Falcons in Weeks 7-12 would be a source of angst for anyone. It should be a source of angst for a Saints defense that has regressed from its late-season form of 2017.
"They know exactly how they are going to win their games," an exec said. "They are going to outscore everybody, struggle on defense and probably win eight to 10 games that way."
The Saints rank third in points per game and 28th in points per game allowed. They were second and 28th in those respective categories from 2013 to '17, but after finishing 10th in points allowed and 19th in defensive efficiency last season, there is angst over whether the Saints can play well enough defensively to beat the best teams.
"With [Patrick] Robinson on IR, it's shootouts the rest of the year," an evaluator said.
Low angst
New England Patriots (2-2)
Preseason odds: 6-1
Latest FPI chances: 24.9 percent
Any kind of victory would have sufficed for the Patriots in Week 4.
The nine-time defending AFC East champs had suffered consecutive double-digit defeats for the first time since Herm Edwards, Dave Wannstedt and Gregg Williams were the other coaches in the division. The Patriots have struggled early in the season before, but usually their issues were contained to the offense or defense. They had been statistically below average in all three phases before handling the Dolphins in a 38-7 rout.
"Bill Belichick treats September as extended training camp, and now they get [Julian] Edelman back, which makes them better," an exec said. "Their defense is always a work in progress as they figure out what they want to be."
Against the Dolphins, the Patriots delivered the kind of restorative performance we've come to expect from them in crisis.
Before kickoff Sunday, I stacked this Patriots team's performance against its 12 predecessors. I limited the comparisons to the first three games of seasons, using the efficiency metrics discussed in the Chargers entry above.
Was this Patriots team any different from other New England teams that stumbled out of the gate? It was. The offense ranked 12th out of the 13 New England offenses since 2006. The defense (eighth) and special teams (11th) also lagged.
While there were seasons when New England endured worse three-game starts in any one phase of the game, this was easily their worst start across the board -- the only time they were below the 50th percentile in all three phases. But it was only three games. The Patriots' performance Sunday pushed their four-game metrics above average for offense and defense, with only their special teams still lagging.
Two veteran evaluators thought injuries and overall roster attrition had lowered the performance ceiling for this Patriots team relative to some others. They thought New England might be closer to 9-7 or 10-6 than 12-4 or 13-3.
"I wouldn't let one loss to Matt Patricia throw me off," a coach cautioned. "Look, [Tom] Brady is going to drop off at some point, but we will know when that happens. Right now, as long as No. 12 is receiving the snap, they have a chance to win every game they are in."
The Patriots were nearly flawless against the Dolphins. They did lose tight end Rob Gronkowski to an ankle injury. But they will get Edelman back from suspension this week. They did get a couple of catches from Josh Gordon in his debut. Rookie first-round pick Sony Michel's 112-yard rushing performance was another encouraging development.
No angst
Los Angeles Rams (4-0)
Preseason odds: 10-1
Latest FPI chances: 61.7 percent
Before Week 3, NFL teams were 9-319 since the start of 2006 in games in which their defensive and special-teams efficiencies were both in the 25th percentile or worse. The Rams made it 10-319 with their 38-31 victory over the Vikings. They did it with their most efficient offensive performance since a 52-0 victory over Oakland in 2014.
While it's bad that the Rams struggled on defense and special teams against Minnesota, it's very good that their offense was productive enough to win anyway. The assumption is that their defense and special teams will revert to their usual respectable forms, and their offense will remain productive as long as McVay continues to possess some of the best offensive weaponry in the league.
One evaluator noted that cornerbacks Aqib Talib, Sam Shields and Troy Hill all carry elevated injury risks (Talib is already on injured reserve), and age at center and left tackle are potential concerns. At 4-0 and with an 18.3-point scoring differential per game, however, the Rams are in a stress-free place, especially as their NFC West rivals struggle.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Preseason odds: 14-1
Latest FPI chances: 12.2 percent
The Jaguars know exactly how they want to win games and have shown an ability to win them that way. They also beat the Patriots with an aggressive pass-oriented approach that broke from their usual form. They look about the way they looked late last season, when they won the AFC South and nearly upset New England in the AFC Championship Game.
Quarterback Blake Bortles has a 64.0 Total QBR, which is up from 59.2 last season and way up from 43.0 the year before. That diminishes whatever angst the Jaguars might have felt when they recommitted to Bortles in the offseason instead of pursuing more expensive options in the market. From all appearances, they are who they wanted to be.