Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 5's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Are the Chicago Bears a legitimate playoff contender? Which team will have a new QB in 2019? Which team are we still trying to figure out?
What's your top upset pick for Week 5?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Falcons +3 over Steelers. Matt Ryan is dealing right now, with 10 touchdown throws and 1,063 yards passing in his past three games. And he will get a bunch of zone coverage looks from the Steelers' defense. I'll take Atlanta here on the road in another high-scoring game.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Jaguars +3 over Chiefs. Denver's defense was able to at least contain the Patrick Mahomes Express for three quarters Monday night, and Jacksonville's defense is better at all three levels. Kansas City's is ... not. Blake Bortles lights 'em up, and the '72 Dolphins get one step closer to their annual champagne party.
Mina Kimes, senior writer: Cardinals +4 over 49ers. Don't let the 56 percent completion percentage fool you: Rookie quarterback Josh Rosen looked sharp in his first NFL start and made a number of catchable throws that were dropped by his receivers. Look for his chemistry with David Johnson to improve this week.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Jaguars +3 over Chiefs. This is a great test for the Jaguars' defense, and I think it could be up to the challenge, especially with help from a Jacksonville offense that should overpower the KC defense. The Chiefs also could lose some firepower through attrition as the season progresses. Sammy Watkins' injury is the first sign of that.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Lions +1.5 over Packers. Let's roll the dice. The Lions have been far more competitive in three straight games after a forgettable Week 1 rollover against the Jets. Though Green Bay's passing offense is an area of strength, the Lions have yet to give up more than 255 passing yards to an opposing quarterback this season, surrendering fewer than 200 in two of four games. Detroit gets the upset nod at home.
Are you buying or selling the Bears as legitimate contenders to make the playoffs in a tough NFC?
Bowen: Buying. With Matt Nagy pulling the strings in the game plan, Chicago can continue to facilitate development for QB Mitchell Trubisky, as the Bears did in Week 4 versus a suspect Bucs secondary. But it's the defense under Vic Fangio that keeps this team in the mix. This front seven is nasty, and it's anchored by the game-changing ability of Khalil Mack rushing off the edge.
Graziano: Buying. I absolutely do not expect Trubisky and the offense to look as good every week as they did Sunday against an overmatched Buccaneers defense. But the Bears' defense is legit and playing at a high level. To this point, the Bears appear to be a far less flawed team than either Minnesota or Green Bay, the teams we all picked to battle it out atop the division before the season started. The Bears are feeling it.
Kimes: Buying. The defense has been absolutely dominant, ranking first in the league in sack ratio, interception rate, yards per rush allowed ... you name it. Trubisky finally showed this week that he can take advantage of Nagy's quarterback-friendly scheme, and if he continues to take steps in the right direction, this team will look scary come January.
Sando: Selling. Yeah, the Bears have a shot at the playoffs, but I'm selling the "legitimate contenders" phraseology and pushing back against the temptation to anoint whichever team looked great a few days ago.
Yates: Buying. I draw the line on judgments based on smallish sample sizes at what is sustainable. And for the Bears, the ferocious pass rush, speed at linebacker and strong secondary play are not likely to fade. From a global offensive standpoint, the development and improvement of Trubisky are the two most important keys. He's showing that so far.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: LeSean McCoy, Bills. McCoy had only eight touches for 37 total yards in the Week 4 loss to Green Bay, and he has logged only 21 touches in his past two games. Playing in a shaky offense with a rookie QB going through the expected growing pains, McCoy's fantasy value is sliding. He should be considered only a flex play this week against the Titans' defense.
Graziano: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. I'll double down on this one, so strong is my belief in Jacksonville's defense. Those guys are awfully proud, and I'm sure they're paying attention to all the (totally justified) love Mahomes is getting nationally. The Jags will be extra fired up to try to take down the hottest offense this side of L.A.
Stephen A. Smith says Eli Manning knows his NFL career is almost over because athletes try to "hold on for dear life" at the end of their careers.
Kimes: Baker Mayfield, Browns. The Ravens' defense has given up only an average of 12.44 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks so far this season and less than 200 passing yards per game. This should be a slugfest and a stiff challenge for the rookie.
Sando: Kirk Cousins, Vikings. We could see the Eagles' defensive front overpower the Vikings' offensive line, making it tougher for Cousins to sustain the MVP-caliber numbers he has put up through four games (Cousins is on pace for 5,548 yards and 40 touchdown passes).
Yates: Adrian Peterson, Redskins. The Saints have been stout against the run so far this season, holding opponents to a stingy 79.5 rushing yards per game. Peterson has run brilliantly in two of three games this season, but with the Saints having scored 33 or more points in three of four games this season, Washington might have to keep pace through the air rather than grinding out yards on the ground.
Fill in the blank: The team you're still most unsure about is the _________.
Bowen: Falcons. The Atlanta defense is missing some critical pieces because of the injuries to Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. And that scheme leans on personnel fits. But with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley and the upper-tier production from Matt Ryan at quarterback, Atlanta can rack up points. Can the Falcons stay in the hunt here? Maybe. The NFC South feels like the Big 12 conference this season, where shootouts are expected in divisional games.
Graziano: Washington. Coming off its bye, Washington sits in first place in the NFC East, but I don't know what to expect going forward -- especially from the passing game. Can it compete in this scoring-infused 2018 season if their top two targets are tight end Jordan Reed and running back Chris Thompson? Doesn't Washington need to get something out of the wide receiver position? Is the defense good enough? We know no one has won the NFC East two years in a row since 2003-04, so I'm looking for a non-Eagles contender here, and this team has looked better than the Cowboys or the Giants have so far.
Kimes: Falcons. After putting up a clunker in the opener, the Falcons' offense has been on fire. Ryan ranks in the top three in the league in QBR, passer rating, and yards per attempt over the past three weeks. But the defense hasn't kept pace, and while the pass rush looked better against Cincinnati, the unit's injuries might be too much to overcome.
Sando: Chargers. They're 2-2 and should get better on defense once Corey Liuget and Joey Bosa, down the line, return, but there's still a lot that can go wrong with this team.
Yates: Chargers. This team just seemingly never makes it easy on itself. Though equipped with offensive firepower and blue-chip defensive talent, the Chargers struggled through a win against the 49ers on Sunday. Special teams continue to be a concern.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 5.
Bowen: Nyheim Hines, Colts. The Colts' running back caught 9-of-11 targets for 63 yards and two scores in Week 4. He's a matchup player with legit speed in a pass-heavy offense. With the uncertainty of wide receiver T.Y. Hilton's injury on a short week, Hines should get targets Thursday night against the Patriots. There's some flex value here in deeper PPR leagues.
Graziano: Matt Breida, 49ers. Assuming he's healthy enough to play, that is. The Cardinals are allowing the second-most points per game to opposing running backs, and Breida looks as if he'll be a favored passing-game target of C.J. Beathard as the Niners' offense adjusts to life after Jimmy G.
Kimes: Austin Hooper, Falcons. Tight ends have been preying on the Steelers' struggling secondary. Ridley and Julio Jones should get theirs, but I could see Hooper exploiting some of the softness in the middle of the field.
Sando: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars. He'll get favorable matchups against the Chiefs in a game with the potential to become a shootout.
Yates: Andy Dalton, Bengals. The Bengals are 3-1 in part due to the strength of Dalton's play this season, as he has multiple touchdown passes in each game with a unique allotment of pass catchers to distribute the ball to. Dalton now faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed over 600 passing yards during its past two games.
Which team is most likely to have a new QB starter in 2019?
Bowen: Giants. With rookies Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Mayfield and Rosen already getting valuable reps, we have to look at veteran QBs. That's why I'm focused on Eli Manning in New York. The Giants could be picking in the top 10 again next year, and developing a young QB in game action under Pat Shurmur would allow the Giants to move on from Manning, who will be 38 at the start of the 2019 season.
Graziano: Broncos. Everyone else is saying the Giants, and that might be the right answer, but I'm going to zag and predict that Case Keenum's up-and-down start to the season continues and the Broncos are looking at other options yet again next offseason. It actually wouldn't surprise me if Chad Kelly started a game or two this year.
Kimes: Giants. There aren't many quarterbacks playing poorly enough to merit hot-seat status (the rookies aren't going anywhere), so I'll go with Manning. The veteran has actually looked decent so far this season, but New York's offense needs a total revamp, and the Giants' record might net them a top draft pick in 2019.
Sando: Giants. Shurmur could use a quick point guard to distribute the ball in his offense. Eli Manning sometimes looks more like a power forward. That could change. A general manager I spoke with recently said he thought the Giants had the potential to be a surprise team. If Manning does hit his stride, Tennessee and Tampa Bay are my fallbacks. The Titans' decision-makers did not draft Marcus Mariota.
Yates: Giants. Let's work through this with a bit of process of elimination: Teams with top quarterbacks are out (why make the change?), and teams with first- or second-year quarterbacks drafted in the top round are out (too much invested). The list thins out quickly. While Manning has not played poorly this season, the Giants could have easily been in the quarterback market this past offseason. If overall struggles persist, it would put the G-Men in position to draft a top-regarded prospect in 2019.